In the wake of a 50 game suspension

[brewtank34]

Mods, please feel free to move this thread somewhere else, but I didn't want to place this idea in the "Predictions", "Braun" or "Line-up" thread as it deals with multple variables that would kind-of derail those other threads.

In the prediction thread, Warning Track ignited a spark/question that maybe you all have some insight on.

3) What position in the NL Central will the Brewers finish?
Tough to say without knowing whether or not Ryan Braun will be suspended. Without a suspension, I will say 1st. With a suspension, I will say 2nd.

RECORD:
No Braun Suspension: 90-72
Braun Suspension: 86-76

This got me thinking, basically what you're saying here is Braun is only worth 4 W's. Before reading this comment, I was under the assumption that the Crew will be just fine for the 50 games that Braun isn't going to be playing. I feel/felt that our Pitching rotation will keep us in the majority of the games and that our offense still has the likes of Weeks, Hart, Ramirez, Lucroy, Gamel.... I was under the assumption that the Crew will hover around .500 and once Braun comes back, we'll show our true colors.

But now, after reading this, my eyes fixated on the "no suspension" vs. "suspension" records, and I'm more scared/nervous about this upcoming year if Braun is to be suspended. How can the loss of Prince AND Braun result in anything close to 90 wins? Our two best offensive weapons gone and I'm assuming that we'll be just fine. I fear I may have been drinking some bad kool-aide. I fear that Hart and Weeks may revert back to their swinging at foolish outside sliders with their eyes closed because the opposition doesn't have to worry about Braun and Prince. Ramirez will add some nice offense and protection for Weeks/Hart, but will it be enough?

At this point, I'm assuming a 79-83 Win season. Please someone help me before I completely go off the "worry ledge". I want to get back to the "The Brewers will be just fine ledge" What are our legitimate (non kool-aide) expectations for a season without our two top offensive weaopons?

[1992casey]

This looks good to me as a separate topic. http://www.ezboard.com/intl/aenglish/images/emoticons/smile.gif The big Braun thread focuses on the PED aspect, the predictions thread is more general conversation, and the lineup thread focuses on batting order.

 

Two things you have to consider:

 

1. The difference between Braun and his replacement rather the difference between Braun and having nobody at all.

 

2. The fact that 25 or 50 games isn't the same as losing a player for a full season. If suspended, he'd still provide a lot of value in the games that he'd be still able to play.

[CheezWizHed]

I would look here: http://brewersfandemonium...ez-Gamel-Fielder-McGehee

 

for a discussion on the impact of the loss of Fielder.

 

As for "Braun is only worth 4 W's", remember that 50 games out of a 162 game season, means that he is worth about 13 wins for the full season. So we would lose 4 extra games in the 50 he might miss. (Not saying that is correct, just translating the numbers).

[liveforoctober]

Losing Prince obviously hurts, but I think the step up from last season's McGehee to this season's Aramis Ramirez makes up for a nice portion of it. Alex Gonzalez playing shortstop also adds a few wins to our team... as it (conceivably) keeps our starters in games longer and saves a few innings from the bullpen over the course of a season. I think Alex Gonzalez is going to be Marcum's best friend. A pitch to contact thrower who now has a SS who can go get the ball. All starters will benefit.

The 2 fellas who I think will determine how much we miss Prince are Gamel and Aoki IMO. If Gamel can perform well enough against righties ... I think Gamel/Ramirez will rival the production of last year of Casey/Prince against RHP. If Aoki can hold up against LHP, with Hart presumably sliding to 1B for those 30 games ... having Hart/Ramirez swinging against lefties will again be comparable to Prince/Casey.

Losing Prince hurts offensively... but it is possible/probable? that the Brewers have covered that production.

Long story short .. we are fine. I'm excited about this team. Let's get a 7th inning guy and we will have another fun year.

[CheezWizHed]

Losing Prince obviously hurts, but I think the step up from last season's McGehee to this season's Aramis Ramirez makes up for a nice portion of it. Alex Gonzalez playing shortstop also adds a few wins to our team...

 

FYI, this discussion is on about 3 threads right now, which is why I linked the above thread. Please don't turn this into a fourth...

 

Aoki is going to be a key piece to the puzzle if Braun is suspended. He won't approach Braun's numbers of course, but if he plays well, he could limit the suspension impact to 2 games instead of 3-4. Remember that those WAR numbers are based on replacement players. If Aoki exceeds that level (not a sure thing), that would greatly reduce the impact.

[Raw Biz]

Long story short .. we are fine.

Yep. I mentioned it in other threads. If Braun is an 8-9 WAR player, we'd lose 3 games if he's suspended (I know it's not as cut and dry as that but its a way to predict his impact). And that's assuming his replacement is a replacement player. I would think Aoki with his OBP, speed, and defense, he could be a .5-1 WAR player over those 50 games. So that means we'd lose like 2-2.5 games without Braun. I also think ARam at Miller Park will put up some big numbers and (barring injury) we'll have a healthy Hart and Greinke to start the season, plus KRod all year.

Finally, they play the Cubs 7 games, the Dodgers 6 games, Astros 5 games, Mets 2 games, Padres 3

games, Rockies 3

games, and Twins 3

games during the first 50 games. Obviously every team has a chance to win but those aren't exactly "scary" opponents. They also play the Cards and Giants 6 games and Braves, Reds, and DBacks 3 games. Overall though, I think there's a lot more "easier" games than "hard" ones during the first 50. It's not as hard as the June stretch last year or as easy as the August stretch but somewhere in between. I think we could win 27-28 games if Braun were suspended with that stretch.

 

[bork]

Braun had a WAR of 7.7 last year. Multiply that by .3 (50/162) you get 2.3. So theoretically, it costs 2-3 wins. Replacing him with someone like Gomez or Aoki, could maybe add 1/2 win over a replacement player over that period. So you're still looking at about 2 wins, strictly looking at WAR.

[Warning Track Power]

The 2012 Gamel/Ramirez/Gonzalez vs. 2011 Fielder/McGehee/Betancourt has been covered extensively. Honestly, I believe this to be very close to a push offensively and an upgrade defensively. I consider this to be equal without considering WAR or those types of numbers.

 

I expect the pitching staff to be about the same as last year. I don't believe anyone had a "career season" save maybe Axford. So I anticipate this being about the same.

 

The bench, as constructed today, is far superior to last season's in my opinion. Kottaras, Izturis, Green, Morgan/Gomez and Aoki should be better than Kottaras, Wilson, McGehee, Morgan/Gomez, Kotsay.

 

The real key to me is whether Weeks and Hart play like the all stars that they are. I don't believe their success was a product of Fielder being in the lineup. Last season, Weeks hit #1, far enough away from Braun and Fielder to be pitched to, and #5, being "protected" by McGehee or Betancourt. Hart hit #1 once Weeks got hurt and was fine. I expect their success to continue. If Braun is suspended, these two will most assuredly have to carry the team and I believe they are up to the challenge.

 

While I believe the Brewers will win less games this season than last, I believe it is more the product of Cincinnati improving this offseason and Pittsburgh gaining more experience. The Pirates are due for a 2005 Brewers season in my opinion.

[Raw Biz]

The bench, as constructed today, is far superior to last season's in my opinion. Kottaras, Izturis, Green, Morgan/Gomez and Aoki should be better than Kottaras, Wilson, McGehee, Morgan/Gomez, Kotsay.

Not to be nitpicky but McGehee was really only a bench player in the playoffs. His spot on the bench was probably taken by a combo of Almonte, Boggs, Lopez, and Green. Except for Green, that's probably worse.

[hawing]

While I believe the Brewers will win less games this season than last, I believe it is more the product of Cincinnati improving this offseason and Pittsburgh gaining more experience. The Pirates are due for a 2005 Brewers season in my opinion.

That the 2011 benchmark is a franchise-record win total already increases the chances that the Brewers will fall shorter in 2012. Though if they won "only" 90 regular season games yet advanced past the NLCS, would we mind?

[JohnBriggs12]

Last year's team won 96 games, a club record. I point to 3 factors as the biggest contributors to that record.

 

1. Braun and Fielder had MVP type seasons in the same year in the middle of the order. Fielder you may recall clearly had an off year in 2010 with just 83 RBI. As bad as McGehee's season was, he did drive in 67 runs and Betancourt for all people's angst drove in 68. Right now I'd take a combined 135 RBI from Gamel and Gonzalez because its going to take better hitting from then than Casey and Yuni provided to get that much production with a weaker middle of the order.

 

2. The starting pitching went from a noticeable weakness to a strength, albeit one that is often overstated. A repeat of 2011 where their starters are 6th overall in ERA in the NL is probably good enough for them to win more than they lose, but it won't get them near 96.

 

3. Axford was stellar from day one as closer with nobody better in the league, compared to 2010 where Hoffman struggled before giving up the role 1/3 into the season. Rodriguez was equally stellar from All Star break on setting up.

 

Of those 3 winning factors, I am only confident in number 3 holding up. I remain disturbed by the starting pitching collapse in the playoffs. It wasn't just the results either. Greinke and Marcum just didn't throw the ball well and I don't know what exactly was the cause of it. I'm very anxious to see how they throw in spring. I also worried about Gallardo having logged a total of 226 innings, some 30 more than he ever has and what effect that will have. I've seen too many rotations over the years follow up solid years as a group with collapses that range from modest to severe the following year. It's never good to assume things in baseball especially about pitching. The Reds last year are the latest example.

[cnycerveceros]

Reading this thread is the first time I've felt optimistic since the Braun news broke. Still, can't wait for spring.

[monty57]

Please someone help me before I completely go off the "worry ledge". I want to get back to the "The Brewers will be just fine ledge"

 

As others stated, if Braun is out for 50 games, the projected effect of the suspension will be the projected difference between Braun and his replacement (Aoki) over 50 games. Others have mentioned the WAR difference, which looks at real and projected outputs of the players. Braun was at 7.8 WAR last year (Fangraphs), but around 4.4-5.0 the previous three years, so the projected effect of a Braun suspension should range from 1-3 games, depending on how you feel Braun and Aoki will play. If you compare MVP Braun with replacement-level Aoki, then you're looking at around a 3 game loss. If you're looking at 2010 Braun (4.4 WAR) vs decent Aoki, we may only lose a game or less.

 

I think Aoki will be fine as long as you aren't looking for a power hitter. He should have a decent average, decent OBP, good base-running ability and good defense (albeit with a weak arm). While anyone would prefer to have Braun in the lineup, I don't dislike the lineup of Aoki, Morgan, Hart, Ramirez, Weeks, Gamel, Lucroy, Gonzalez. The Gamel/Gonzalez/Ramirez vs Fielder/Yuni/McGehee arguement has been hashed out many times, but I see the combined total of the three to be pretty close to a wash.

 

Fielder you may recall clearly had an off year in 2010 with just 83 RBI. As bad as McGehee's season was, he did drive in 67 runs and Betancourt for all people's angst drove in 68. Right now I'd take a combined 135 RBI from Gamel and Gonzalez because its going to take better hitting from then than Casey and Yuni provided to get that much production with a weaker middle of the order.

 

If we're going to look at RBIs, it's really more relevant to look at RBI opportunities. McGehee and Yuni had a lot of RBI opportunities because Fielder and Braun got on base a lot in fornt of them. If Aoki and Morgan can get on base at a .350-ish clip, Hart, Ramirez, and Weeks will have a lot of RBI opportunities. They are good hitters and therefore should have a lot of RBIs. If Gamel can sit somewhere in the .780-.820 OPS range, he'll have plenty of RBIs with Hart, Ramirez and Weeks in front of him. They won't get on as much as Braun & Fielder, but Gamel should hit better than either Yuni or McGehee did last year. Good hitter + lot of RBI opportunities = lot of RBI. Bad hitter + lot of RBI opportunities = quite a few RBI. Good hitter or bad hitter with few RBI opportunities = not a lot of RBI (although the good hitter would get more just by knocking himself in on HR). Last year, Ramirez, Morgan, Hart and Weeks all got on base 35-36% of the time. Braun was around 39% of the time. As long as Roenicke leaves him in the lineup, Gamel will have plenty of RBI at season's end.

 

We have a lot of good hitters in our lineup, so our lineup should score runs without Braun, and will still be among the best run-producing lineups in the NL once Braun is back.

[djoctagone]

What are our legitimate (non kool-aide) expectations for a season without our two top offensive weapons?

it's being discussed here, but a braun suspension increases the chances of a player out of minor league options staying with the organization.

 

also, i took a look at the schedule, and while april puts the brewers in some places where away games could be canceled and rescheduled later (notably chicago and st. louis), the brewers will spend most of may in ballparks with roofs or warmer/drier climates. this bodes well in that the brewers' anticipated 51st game played could very well be the 51st game currently on the schedule (which is 31 may at dodger stadium--the last day of a road trip).