John Sickels's top 20 Brewers prospects for 2012

[TooLiveBrew]

Link

This top-20 list was updated on Jan. 10th, just to be clear. If you're not familiar with Sickels, be sure to read the explanation of his letter grades, or he can come across as harsh. His top 5 (w/letter grade):

1. Peralta (B)

2. Thornburg (B)

3. Jungmann (B)

4. Bradley (B)

5. Green (B-)

This system isn't as bad as you might expect at first glance, but there is very little depth beyond the top guys. Peralta, Thornburg, Jungmann, and Bradley are a good foundation for a future pitching staff, and Jorge Lopez could end up being the best of the lot if he develops properly. Mike Fiers doesn't have the upside of the others, but is ready now.

Lack of hitting depth is an issue, I don't see anyone here with impact offensive potential, although there are guys who should be useful, productive role players.

[dadofandrew]

A good defensive CF who can steal bases and hit for a decent BA will be a starter, without a doubt.

[paul253]

The Brewers really need to hit on their top 3 picks this June. Last year's draft got some nice arms and depth in the pitching ranks. Hopefully we can do the same with the bats this year.

[TooLiveBrew]

<<>>

 

A good defensive CF who can steal bases and hit for a decent BA will be a starter, without a doubt.

Unless he can't hit lefties much at all at the big-league level, which is entirely possible for Schafer. I think his '12 AAA time is going to be very important for his continued development. From Sickels, "excellent fourth outfielder" isn't some backhanded compliment.

[narwhalattack]

When does the minor league season start, by the way?

[TooLiveBrew]

The schedule page for the T-Rats has their first game (home opener) on April 5th. That's also the first game for the other three full-season affiliates, so I'm guessing it's Opening Day for all full-season MiLB leagues.

Helena's site lists their first game on June 18th. Not sure if that's another blanket-policy (meaning, for all short-season leagues) opening day date or not.

[paul253]

Where are we expecting Jungmann and Bradley to start? I hope the Brewers are aggressive with them. Both start out in Wisconsin and if they are pitching well after 5 starts move them up to BC. I thought the Brewers waited way too long to move Thornburg up last season.

[dadofandrew]

TooLiveBrew wrote: Unless he can't hit lefties much at all at the big-league level, which is entirely possible for Schafer.

Morgan can't hit LHP and he's a starting CF. LH halves of the platoon get 500 PA's a year, and he's making $2M+ in his first year of arby. I think Schafer has a 50-60% chance to be equal to or better than Morgan, who was a late bloomer.

[TooLiveBrew]

Well it's semantics. When Sickels says Schafer would make a great 4th OF (Sickels being a guy who doesn't throw around adjectives like "great"), and when Morgan is only a starter in the big half of a platoon, I see the same definition of a player. Morgan has surpassed 500 PAs exactly once in his career, & only got 378 last season. That's not a starter; guys who are 'everyday players' get somewhere from 600-700 PAs (or more) on a season, & that's what I think of when I think "starter" in the context Sickels would be using it. But honestly none of this is really important to the question of 'will Schafer be a good MLB player?'

 

I agree with you & think he will, and that he could well wind up being a better big-league hitter than Morgan. But if he's never really useful or at least passable against LHP, he won't wind up being better enough than Morgan to really concern ourselves with, just a nice role player. Either way, the Brewers are fortunate to have Schafer & have him so well developed. If Braun is indeed suspended & misses 50 games, Schafer could play a nice role in picking up the slack until Braun's return.

[TooLiveBrew]

Also, I think it's exciting that the Brewers have a chance to add maybe even three more B grade (Sickels's grades, I mean) caliber players with their first three picks in the upcoming draft. Then this farm system would actually start looking like a good farm system again.

 

Where are we expecting Jungmann and Bradley to start? I hope the Brewers are aggressive with them. Both start out in Wisconsin and if they are pitching well after 5 starts move them up to BC. I thought the Brewers waited way too long to move Thornburg up last season.

I believe it was Patrick (colbyjack) who said that Bradley said he's been assigned to Brevard County. Iirc Patrick also said that the same was going to be true for Jungmann... but now I need to go search & find out what I'm making up from poor memory & what's actually real. I'm 99.9% sure Bradley (or someone) tweeted or said that he (Bradley, specifically) was heading to BC.

EDIT: Couldn't find anything more than a blog with a random mention that Bradley's said he's starting at BC. Looking more...

EDIT 2: No luck. I swear I read on Brewerfan's forums that Bradley mentioned (in an interview maybe?) he'd be starting at BC

[DHonks]

A lot may depend on minor league camp. I can think of reasons why these guys could start at either A-club. Perhaps based on work ethic, the organization wanting to pair them with a particular pitching coach, how good (or bad) they look in camp, etc. The organization has said that they like to place guys with clubs and give them time to work their way through a list of objectives before they are promoted. In that case, I can't imagine the Brewer would put them on a club and expect to move them 5 starts later. If they are doing well, I would expect draft time would be fine for promotions. However, given our newfound organizational depth at pitcher, they could be held back because of a logjam. In that case, it's nice to promote guys only when they absolutely are ready, not just because they have had a few good promising starts.

 

AAA: Peralta, Rivas, Scarpetta, Rogers, Fiers

AA: Thornburg, Heckathorn, Anundsen, Bucci, Lamontagne?, Seidel,

A+/A: Ross, Jungman, Bradley, Nieves, Arnett, Lasker, Miller, Nelson, Hall, Gagnon, Goforth, Strong, Toledo, etc.

[dadofandrew]

I doubt they'll start any blue chipper at Appleton because of the cold weather. That's just common sensical.

[TheCrew07]

EDIT: Couldn't find anything more than a blog with a random mention that Bradley's said he's starting at BC. Looking more...

EDIT 2: No luck. I swear I read on Brewerfan's forums that Bradley mentioned (in an interview maybe?) he'd be starting at BC

That was me, posted here.

 

Hmm, so I guess if those prospects make it to MLB we shouldn't pitch them on the road in April/May or September/October? I'm not sure a good case can be made that players are hurt more by the cold weather in WI and the rest of the Midwest league to start the season more than they are all of the lost development due to rainouts and cancelled games from our SE affiliates over the last 2 seasons. Every 7 inning games costs our kids ABs or IP, every lost game even more. Count me in the camp that couldn't care less about cold weather games, which incidentally I've always felt favored the pitchers more than the hitters anyway.

[dadofandrew]

Pitchers often struggle to get loose in cold weather, which in theory causes more injuries.

 

7 inning games hurt the middle relievers, who are rarely prospects.

[TooLiveBrew]

EDIT: Couldn't find anything more than a blog with a random mention that Bradley's said he's starting at BC. Looking more...

EDIT 2: No luck. I swear I read on Brewerfan's forums that Bradley mentioned (in an interview maybe?) he'd be starting at BC

That was me, posted here.

 

Hmm, so I guess if those prospects make it to MLB we shouldn't pitch them on the road in April/May or September/October? I'm not sure a good case can be made that players are hurt more by the cold weather in WI and the rest of the Midwest league to start the season more than they are all of the lost development due to rainouts and cancelled games from our SE affiliates over the last 2 seasons. Every 7 inning games costs our kids ABs or IP, every lost game even more. Count me in the camp that couldn't care less about cold weather games, which incidentally I've always felt favored the pitchers more than the hitters anyway.

THANK YOU for identifying yourself & solving my 'mystery'. You have no idea how much that was bugging me... I actually searched around the forums again today with no luck.

[TheCrew07]

Pitchers often struggle to get loose in cold weather, which in theory causes more injuries.

 

7 inning games hurt the middle relievers, who are rarely prospects.

Relievers maybe, but they aren't prospects anyway...

 

Which Brewer starting pitching prospect can any of us recall who was injured because of the cold weather in Beloit or Appleton? I'd like to see some evidence of that before we even entertain it as a realistic concern. As a young baseball player in NE WI who pitched until his junior year, hitting was more of an issue, even with the aluminum bats, if you missed the sweet spot at all your hands stung for a couple of minutes. It was pretty difficult to put a good swing on the next pitch after having just fouled off a ball from the handle area of the bat. Where as throwing was never an issue, we normally warmed up with jackets on to get loose anyway, we were comfortable with a jacket on.

 

Playing in Door County with the wind blowing off the lake was pretty brutal in April and May, we hated making those trips every year because of the hitting issues and the soft ground, especially as OFs. The soft ground killed ground balls not far into the OF grass which forced us all to play much more shallow and the ground would literally swallow a quarter of the baseball on any kind of fly ball that found green grass out there, making it extremely easy to over run the ball while trying to recover it.

 

There are certainly plenty of issues associated with cold weather, I'm just not sold pitching injuries are one.

[Kelbysdaddy]

lopez being in the brewers system scares me- his ceiling may be too high for our org to develop him properly. i wish we could trade him to the rays or braves and get him back in 3 years

[umphrey]

<<>>

 

A good defensive CF who can steal bases and hit for a decent BA will be a starter, without a doubt.

Unless he can't hit lefties much at all at the big-league level, which is entirely possible for Schafer. I think his '12 AAA time is going to be very important for his continued development. From Sickels, "excellent fourth outfielder" isn't some backhanded compliment.

I assume that when people say things like "excellent 4th outfielder" or "middle of the rotation starter" they are talking about where they fit in a division winning team. Besides, a 4th outfielder who is "excellent" in that role is going to play quite a bit on a division winning team, or pretty much every game for an average/below average team.

[jjfanec]

lopez being in the brewers system scares me- his ceiling may be too high for our org to develop him properly. i wish we could trade him to the rays or braves and get him back in 3 years

These comments really bug me. Who did the org screw up? It seems like Jeffress was a mental issue, Rogers was an injury and other things issue - maybe partly on the Brewers, Odorizzi turned out pretty solid, Gallardo has been great. Thornburg has been really good. Inman was good with us - maybe SD worse at developing than we are. Arnett was just a bad pick so far and the same can be said for Adams, Lintz and Fredrickson. The jury is still out on Heckathorn, Nelson

Those are our draft choices used on pitchers in the first 3 rounds. 12 picks in all. 5 were first round our supplemental. 5 were second round. 2 were third

You have one all-star - Gallardo

You have 2 guys who are currently solid prospects - Thornburg and Odorizzi

You have 2 (maybe 3) the jury is still out on - Heckathorn and Nelson (maybe Arnett could still land here)

You have 2 who are in AAA but have not met expectations due to injury or personal conduct - Jeffress and Rogers

You have 1 who was good as a Brewer in the minors but never became an MLB pitcher - Inman

You have 3 (maybe 4 who are busts - Adams Lintz, and Fredrickson

I would honestly say it is Jeffress and Rogers who have broke this system. In 7 years we used 13 picks in the first 3 rounds on pitchers (Covey didn't sign). I just look at most of the guys and I dont think it was development issue. The Lintz, Fredrickson, and Adams picks were all questioned when they happened. That is just poor talent evaluation. Rogers and Jeffress were high upside guys who either personally self-destructed (Jeffress) or had huge injury issues (rogers) that I guess could be blamed on us trying to fix his throwing motion. It is a sad list to be sure since all we have to show for it in the bigs is Gallardo. But our young guys of Peralta, Thornburg, and even Fiers have shown we have developed guys a little better recently.

[TooLiveBrew]

Who did the org screw up?

 

I think the better question would be, 'Why have the Rays & Braves been so much more successful developing pitchers?' I don't think you can discount something like the 4 players you name as 'just bad picks' without holding the Brewers accountable. It's not just that Jeffress & Rogers didn't pan out, it's that the Rays (for example) have turned out like 4 or 5 or 6 really legit young MLB pitchers in the past 5+ seasons. They obviously seem to know how to identify pitching better, & identifying is definitely part of the development process imo.*

 

Sorry, I don't want this post to seem ad hominem. I just think that this is an interesting topic to discuss.

* In fact, identification might be the single most important part of developing... because let's be honest, the vast majority of why a player makes it or not is the player himself. Rickie Weeks--Mat Gamel is a perfect example of that, imo. Weeks was willing to work his butt off to become the best he could be, and with Gamel you've never gotten that impression from hearing anyone talk about him (as much as I love his skills).

[jjfanec]

Who did the org screw up?

 

I think the better question would be, 'Why have the Rays & Braves been so much more successful developing pitchers?' I don't think you can discount something like the 4 players you name as 'just bad picks' without holding the Brewers accountable. It's not just that Jeffress & Rogers didn't pan out, it's that the Rays (for example) have turned out like 4 or 5 or 6 really legit young MLB pitchers in the past 5+ seasons. They obviously seem to know how to identify pitching better, & identifying is definitely part of the development process imo.*

 

Sorry, I don't want this post to seem ad hominem. I just think that this is an interesting topic to discuss.

* In fact, identification might be the single most important part of developing... because let's be honest, the vast majority of why a player makes it or not is the player himself. Rickie Weeks--Mat Gamel is a perfect example of that, imo. Weeks was willing to work his butt off to become the best he could be, and with Gamel you've never gotten that impression from hearing anyone talk about him (as much as I love his skills).

If the debate lumps evaluation in with development than I completely agree we have not done well. I was thinking development in terms of what happens once the guy gets into your camp. I figured that was the direction of the previous poster as well because he said Lopez would be better off with the Rays and/or Braves.

The Rays drafted very high which helps some - I mean Price and Nienmann were 1st and 4th picks. The year they got Hellickson they drafted 11 pitchers with their first 15 picks and none of the others are in the league. So I think they hit on some high picks and drafted a lot of pitchers. Maybe they have a lot of good arms in AAA that they drafted as well. I think they just draft pitchers better than we do.

I think the Brewers neglected arms for a long time and it is coming back to haunt them. I am not saying I think we are great at developing pitchers but I feel like the problem lies much more with scouting then instruction

 

[narwhalattack]

The problem is that the Brewers scouting org hasn't seen the importance of pitching up until recently. In the last draft they finally had some understanding of the importance of pitching, but drafting for upside rather than polish and work-horseness would be even better. I do like how they drafted Lopez, as it shows that they're finally willing to draft raw players, but getting Jungmann while leaving out Barnes and Guerrieri really made little sense. I felt that the Brewers drafted Jungmann just because he's 6'6 and he's gonna be able to chew up tons of innings, rather than because he had great stuff (while both Guerrieri and Barnes had better stuff than him).

[jjfanec]

The problem is that the Brewers scouting org hasn't seen the importance of pitching up until recently. In the last draft they finally had some understanding of the importance of pitching, but drafting for upside rather than polish and work-horseness would be even better. I do like how they drafted Lopez, as it shows that they're finally willing to draft raw players, but getting Jungmann while leaving out Barnes and Guerrieri really made little sense. I felt that the Brewers drafted Jungmann just because he's 6'6 and he's gonna be able to chew up tons of innings, rather than because he had great stuff (while both Guerrieri and Barnes had better stuff than him).

I agree with the first sentence completely. However, the Brewers have went after raw guys and had little or no success. Jeffress, Rogers, Fredrickson (very raw for a college arm), Lintz and even Covey who they couldnt sign all have had little success. Jeffress and Rogers could still produce but odds are not great. Odorizzi has a chance and Yo has been special. I have seen Jungmann projected as a number 2 or 3 kind of guy. Likely a 3. Jungmann isnt just big. Numerous reports say he has a plus breaking ball. Now those reports were Kieth Law and some on MLB.com but if you read this board you would think Jungmann throws 88 with a hanging curve. Other things I read said he could have even more velocity as they were with his delivery.

[TooLiveBrew]

If the debate lumps evaluation in with development than I completely agree we have not done well. I was thinking development in terms of what happens once the guy gets into your camp. I figured that was the direction of the previous poster as well because he said Lopez would be better off with the Rays and/or Braves.

 

The initial evaluation of talent seems to be the most important factor, that's really all I think I know for sure.

 

 

I think they just draft pitchers better than we do.

 

This has to be it, I mean how much better can one organization's pitching coaches or program really be?

 

 

I feel like the problem lies much more with scouting then instruction

 

I agree, and that's kind of depressing. But I also agree with you that they've done better in more recent years.

[TheCrew07]

I think they just draft pitchers better than we do.

 

This has to be it, I mean how much better can one organization's pitching coaches or program really be?

Well I think the coaching and philosophies can be much different from organization to organization. I tend to highlight organizations in my posts that I think are doing something unique developing pitchers. For example there is simply no way that all pitching coaches are equal, if that were true then Lee Tunnel wouldn't have had the impact he's had on the Brewer system. My problem with "development" in the minor leagues is that there isn't much time for development, there's not enough coaching and practice time available throughout the system, it's still largely a trial by fire type of system.

 

In that type of system it's more important which athletes you choose than how you develop them because they are developing themselves. Look at football, most high schools have 6+ varsity coaches, colleges have exactly the same number of coaches as do the pro programs, plus the teams have at least 4 practices per week to work on development. In baseball the minor league teams have no where near the same number of coaches as big league club and their on field work is essentially limited to however long it takes to complete batting practice each day. Our MiLB teams have a 1 manager, 1 pitching coach, and 1 hitting coach, it's as barebones as it can get.

 

With so few coaches for so many athletes and so little time, I think the quality of the coaching is extremely critical. If the players are basically making their own adjustments on the fly during games you need to have people that can motivate and communicate as concise as possible to get the point across and move on to the next young man while continually building confidence and raising the bar expectation wise. I'm not sure what else they can do from a fundamentals standpoint in so little time.

 

I agree that the selection process is more important than the developmental process at this juncture, but it doesn't have to be that way. All it would take is one team to dedicate more coaching, the kids to have more success, and the system would probably change. I still think it makes more sense to spend more money on development, you only need to develop 1 extra averagish pitcher and you're saving yourself at least 8 million dollars per year instead of having to go out and sign a guy in FA. I don't understand why a smart small market team hasn't taken this tact, pumping more cash into their system in the hopes of saving significant money on the back end, 2 more coaches at every level could have a significant impact, that wouldn't even cost the team $500,000 dollars to make happen. But then again we're talking about system that doesn't even do the bare minimum to feed the athletes properly...