Ramirez + Gamel > Fielder + McGehee

[MadScientist]

I haven't seen this discussed before, but could the Brewers be a better offensive team this year than last, even with the loss of Fielder?

Last year Fielder had an impressive .981 OPS, but McGehee clocked in with an anemic .626 OPS. Rameriz had a good .871 and Gamel put up .912 in AAA. If Ramirez puts up his career .842, then Gamel will only need to put up a .766 OPS to give the Brewers a better combined OPS from the corner infielders. I realize just adding the OPS is a bit simplistic, but Ramirez, Fielder and McGehee all had >= 600 PA's last year, so things shouldn't be too skewed.

 

So does a good player and a decent player create more offense than a great player and a poor player?

[jerichoholicninja]

This has been discussed quite a bit in a lot of different threads.

[Raw Biz]

This has been discussed quite a bit in a lot of different threads.

Yep and it's usually included Gonzalez/Yuni and also taken into account defense. Gamel/Fielder could be even defensively, at least this year (with Gamel having better potential I think), ARam/McGehee is probably a wash as well, and obviously Gonzalez is way better than Yuni. So taking into account offense and defense, I think the general consensus is that this year's trio is almost even with last year's and maybe a win or so behind.

[patrickgpe]

i don't think so. I am going to assume that McGehee improves on his OPS from last year and ARam's will stay the same or decline. we have no idea what we are getting in Gamel since he hasn't had a chance to have anything close to regular mlb playing time

[Raw Biz]

i don't think so. I am going to assume that McGehee improves on his OPS from last year and ARam's will stay the same or decline. we have no idea what we are getting in Gamel since he hasn't had a chance to have anything close to regular mlb playing time

I don't think we're comparing what McGehee or even Prince will do this year (or at least I'm not). I'm looking at this year's team vs. what last year did to determine if there will be an upgrade or not. So I think last year's team was a 90 win team (I know they won 96) and I'm putting this year's at about 88 or 89.

[jmeks23]

While it would be hard for McGehee's OPS not to be better this year, I don't think he'll be nearly as good as Ramirez will be, even if ARam declines a bit.

 

First of all, McGehee just looked lost at the plate last year, and I don't think that's as easy to fix as you might think (see Bill Hall). Secondly (and perhaps more importantly) he's going to play at PNC, which is largely regarded as a "big" ballpark, often pitcher friendly.

[Ennder]

It is certainly plausible that this years team is as good as the one we started the season with last year. A lot obviously depends on Braun. A million things could go wrong that could still make this team worse than last years though.

[JohnBriggs12]

Fielder affected the lineup in ways Ramirez won't.

 

Fielder saw 549 more pitches than Ramirez did last year and walked 107 times to just 43 for Ramirez. That is a lot of extra wear and tear (not to mention a lot more base runners) not just on opposing arms, but their heads as well. Fielder also forced managers into more frequent pitching changes often that eventually resulted in favorable matchups for other hitters in the Brewer lineup.

 

The 1-2 punch the Brewers had in their lineup everyday last year was exceptional. That now is gone and that will affect other guys. Of course Ramirez will outdo McGehee, but there's no way I'd take the combo of Ramirez/Gamel over Fielder/McGehee, even with McGehee being so off for most of the year.

[monty57]

A million things could go wrong that could still make this team worse than last years though.

 

Sure, but there are also a lot of things that went wrong last year which hopefully won't go wrong this year:

 

We lost Hart & Greinke in Spring Training, costing around a month's service for both of them.

We picked up Morgan just before the season began, but didn't really start playing him right away, leaving us with Gomez at the top of the order for far too long.

We had Loe as the "8th inning guy" until K-Rod was acquired.

McGehee had a terrible year, but played everyday until the last week of the season.

Yuni

Weeks lost a lot of time at the end of the year, and probably wasn't 100% when he returned.

 

There will always be injuries, and players will always do better or worse than expected, but it's not like we walked unscathed last season. If Braun is suspended, but we don't get Greinke/Hart type injuries, we're probably a bit worse than we were going into last year. If Braun isn't suspended, then I think we have as good a chance of winning the division this year as we did going into last year.

[DHonks]

As of now, we're likely better on opening day than last year. But if Braun is suspended, then that chances a lot.

[MVP2110]

As of now, we're likely better on opening day than last year. But if Braun is suspended, then that chances a lot.

I tend to agree with this statement. Obviously as the season went on we were able to acquire more talent, but I think this team definately has the potential to go to the playoffs, and we all know once you get in the playoffs anything can happen.

I consider us improved at C, SS, 3B, CF, the bench, and the bullpen and have downgraded at 1B. Now a lot will depend on injuries but this team definately has a chance

[DHonks]

When I say that, it's because last year we opened the season with a less-than-perfect Hart, Greinke was barely throwing on the side, Marcum opened the season with a bad shoulder, Morgan hadn't stepped forward as a starter, we had serious issues with the back of the pen (Loe as 8th inning guy???), Saito was hurt, and....we still had Betancourt. Kotsay didn't hit a ball out of the infield til late May, and he was our key bat on the bench?

[Baldkin]

When I say that, it's because last year we opened the season with a less-than-perfect Hart, Greinke was barely throwing on the side, Marcum opened the season with a bad shoulder, Morgan hadn't stepped forward as a starter, we had serious issues with the back of the pen (Loe as 8th inning guy???), Saito was hurt, and....we still had Betancourt. Kotsay didn't hit a ball out of the infield til late May, and he was our key bat on the bench?

You're forgetting the Wil Nieves and Erick Almonte experiments. Kottaras and Aoki make the bench so much better its kind of crazy.

 

They gave 487 PA's to bench guys who had OPS+ worse than YuniB's 75 last year. This doesn't include McGehee's 600. Only one of them will get AB's this year, and his only issue was he only got 30 ABs and got bad luck with hits dropping (Gamel).

Counsell, Wilson, Nieves, Almonte, Lopez..... will not be missed.

[TooLiveBrew]

There are many things from that 2011 Brewers team I try to forget... I think the last two posts here may have hit on everything.

[Oldcity]

I'd take the one with Fielder, only because I would rather have Fielder/Green over Gamel/Ramirez.

[pingman]

NO way....

 

Braun will be among the league leaders in intentional walks, even if he plays only 112 games

[CheezWizHed]

Fielder saw 549 more pitches than Ramirez did last year and walked 107 times to just 43 for Ramirez.

 

Braun will be among the league leaders in intentional walks, even if he plays only 112 games

 

Excellent. Braun will take over for Fielder last year then...

 

If you are going to compare Fielder vs. Ramirez on walks and pitches, then you have to look at McGehee vs. Gamel and Gonzalez vs. Yuni. There isn't a single person that will replace Fielder. Pujols would have been the only way we could have upgraded. No one is comparing Fielder to any one player.

 

I'd take the one with Fielder, only because I would rather have Fielder/Green over Gamel/Ramirez.

 

Except that was never an option. The question was a comparison of our 1B/3B/SS last year to this year. Fielder hasn't been a realistic possibility for 2012 for 3-4 months (and I'm being generous in saying it was that close).

 

The comparison of 2011 McGehee/Yuni/Fielder vs. 2012 Ramirez/Gonzalez/Gamel is pretty close IMO, if you include offense and defense. Gamel is the big question mark. At worst, its probably a loss of a win or two. But if he hits 800 OPS with good defense, I'd say its going to be a virtual tie.

[jerichoholicninja]

Is Braun actually going to take all the walks teams are going to try and give him this year? I think this will be the biggest key to the offense this year.

[reillymcshane]

The comparison of 2011 McGehee/Yuni/Fielder vs. 2012 Ramirez/Gonzalez/Gamel is pretty close IMO, if you include offense and defense. Gamel is the big question mark. At worst, its probably a loss of a win or two. But if he hits 800 OPS with good defense, I'd say its going to be a virtual tie.

I think they can do it. I'm going to use Fangraphs. In 2011, here's what the five regulars involved produced:

 

Fielder: 5.5 WAR

Yuni: 0.5 WAR

McGehee: 0.3 WAR

TOTAL: 6.3

 

Ramirez: 3.6

Gonzalez: 1.1

TOTAL: 4.7

 

That means if Ramirez and Gonzalez and reproduce 2011, then Gamel needs to produce a 1.6 WAR in order to equal the output of Fielder/Yuni/McGehee. I don't think that's an outrageous goal for Mat.

 

Again, this is using Fangraphs' WAR ratings. Just one way to look at it.

[JohnBriggs12]

jerichoholicninja]Is Braun actually going to take all the walks teams are going to try and give him this year? I think this will be the biggest key to the offense this year.

Not a chance. With no Fielder behind him, he's going to expand the zone (something he's always been prone to do anyway), not contract it, because he'll feel an extra burden to produce runs.

 

Intentional walks may be up but they take the bat out of the hands of the best hitter on the team. That won't help the offense.

[MadScientist]

Is Braun actually going to take all the walks teams are going to try and give him this year? I think this will be the biggest key to the offense this year.

Not a chance. With no Fielder behind him, he's going to expand the zone (something he's always been prone to do anyway), not contract it, because he'll feel an extra burden to produce runs.

 

Intentional walks may be up but they take the bat out of the hands of the best hitter on the team. That won't help the offense.

Unless Ramirez and Hart/Weeks (whoever they put in the 5 spot) turn into a black hole, Braun shouldn't put too much pressure on himself. Last year Weeks and Hart missed a combined half the season, leaving McGehee batting 5th.

 

I could see Braun pressing a lot if he gets suspended and tries to make up for lost time.

[gregmag]

When I say that, it's because last year we opened the season with a less-than-perfect Hart, Greinke was barely throwing on the side, Marcum opened the season with a bad shoulder, Morgan hadn't stepped forward as a starter, we had serious issues with the back of the pen (Loe as 8th inning guy???), Saito was hurt, and....we still had Betancourt. Kotsay didn't hit a ball out of the infield til late May, and he was our key bat on the bench?

This and Monty's earlier post make a really good point. We lost a lot in the early going because of injuries and false starts. Even if we open this season with comparable injuries, we don't have the same question marks surrounding CF and late inning relief. That may just be a function of luck, but I think it's also a matter of having made some stabilizing personnel decisions over the past 12 months.

 

As for the original question, MadScientist asked about one interesting point that no one has talked about (unless I missed it): generically, would you rather have your offense spread around or concentrated? In other words, to put it crudely, would you rather have three guys who OPS'd .800, .800, and .700, or three guys who OPS'd 1.000, .700, and .600? Based on intuition and fuzzy memories of past reading, I think I'd prefer the first group, and my preference gets stronger if the alternative is something like 1.100, .650, and .550. My sense is that consistency through a lineup produces more runs than a spot or two of superiority surrounded by mediocrity. But I'd be interested to know if anybody has different thoughts, or substantive info, on this point.

[Oldcity]

I'd take the one with Fielder, only because I would rather have Fielder/Green over Gamel/Ramirez.

 

Except that was never an option. The question was a comparison of our 1B/3B/SS last year to this year. Fielder hasn't been a realistic possibility for 2012 for 3-4 months (and I'm being generous in saying it was that close).

I never said it was an option for this year. The question was last year's offense to this year's. I'd take last year's offense, because they had options to use Green at third and Hairston at short (they just didn't use them, for whatever reason).

[Oldcity]

As for the original question, MadScientist asked about one interesting point that no one has talked about (unless I missed it): generically, would you rather have your offense spread around or concentrated? In other words, to put it crudely, would you rather have three guys who OPS'd .800, .800, and .700, or three guys who OPS'd 1.000, .700, and .600?

The only thing is the second one should not even be a possibility, because there's no reason/excuse for having a .600 OPS guy in your lineup. That's below replacement level. Goes back to using McGehee when Green and Hairston were on the team--it was inexcusable.

[CheezWizHed]

I'd take last year's offense, because they had options to use Green at third and Hairston at short (they just didn't use them, for whatever reason).

 

Ok, I though you were picking Green for this year at 3B, since he wasn't really up much last year. But we also don't know what that offense would have really done. Green might flop in the MLB (and I am a big supporter of his). And I think the point is to still compare this year's probable offense/defense to last year's 96-win offense/defense. Not what could have been last year.