Long-term extension for one: Greinke or Marcum?

[HiAndTight]

LaPorta was also a can't miss prospect that we could have had for 6 years. You never know which prospect will blossom and who will turn into Ryan Leaf.

That's a bit of a stretch, he was viewed as a nice power prospect with some legit holes in his swing. BA ranked him pretty high, but the scouting reports on him weren't necessarily glowing as far as the hit tool was concerned.

 

 

edit. I guess here's the thing, true can't miss prospects are few and far between. Out of our system I thought Braun, Fielder, and Gallardo were can't miss, that's it. I championed players like Hart, Gamel, Hardy, Escobar, Weeks, Braddock, Axford, Lucroy, and Parra, but there's a wide gulf between thinking a player is going to be good and being willing to bet or say definitively that a player is going to be a stud. I might like a guy, be really high on a guy, but few guys are "can't miss". Outside of our system those guys are like a Price, Longoria, Trout, Lincecum, and Stanton, playerss who I am positive will be perennial all-stars.

 

I talk quite a bit about TB's system but outside of Price they haven't had a can't miss young pitcher. They have tons of guys I'm very high on, and Moore is pushing "can't miss" status, but I saw most of those guys as 2/3 type pitchers which are incredibly valuable, and I would have traded for any of them, but I wouldn't have been shocked if any had went Manny Parra either. I learned my lesson a long time ago with "can't miss". LaPorta is really only 2 tool player, maybe a 1 tool player... he didn't have a defensive position, didn't run well, I don't recall him having a strong throwing arm, there was plenty of talk about holes in his swing, but does have legit power. I wasn't sorry he was traded, I just wanted a different solution, and while I thought he'd manage to hit around .270, I'm not shocked that he's a .238 career hitter either. With a decent batting average, the rest of his line would be okay.

I have to ask how you come to this conclusion? Moore is MORE of a "can't miss," pitcher than Price was. You know who the top prospect in baseball is right now? Not Trout, not Harper, Moore. I think that's pretty telling.

 

I also think you're underestimating Hellickson and Hellickson isn't far from a can't miss either.

[reillymcshane]

latest on greinke in an interview with Melvin:

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/138959944.html

Memolo: “From where I’m sitting I’m not sure how you’re going to

handle Zack Greinke, considering what you gave up in that trade. How are

you going to handle that? What’s your priority with Zack Greinke right

now?â€

[reillymcshane]

latest on greinke in an interview with Melvin:

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/138959944.html

Memolo: “From where I’m sitting I’m not sure how you’re going to

handle Zack Greinke, considering what you gave up in that trade. How are

you going to handle that? What’s your priority with Zack Greinke right

now?â€

[Invader3K]

I could see this being an early to mid-season "surprise" extension like Melvin has done in the past, especially if the team plays well early in the season. That might be enough to get Greinke to sign.

[Warning Track Power]

latest on greinke in an interview with Melvin:

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/138959944.html

Memolo: “From where I’m sitting I’m not sure how you’re going to handle Zack Greinke, considering what you gave up in that trade. How are you going to handle that? What’s your priority with Zack Greinke right now?â€

[Ennder]

To me what it means is Greinke is waiting until mid season to do anything. He wants to make sure if Braun is suspended and we struggle in the first half that we don't have a fire sale and blow the team up before he commits.

[chadomac]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/brewers-marcum-have-yet-to-talk-extension.html

 

Marcum is open to an extension. I think we kinda new that. I would love to start talking extension with him after the first few months of the season. He scared me with his horrible playoff performance. I would just want to make sure his arm is okay.

[PrinceFielderx1]

If Marcum really wants to stay with the Brewers, then the Brewers can wait to see how he does in the first few months of the season before approaching him with a new contract. However, if it's all talk, then I'd assume they will need to get it done before opening day or lose him to FA. This is the way I'm personally looking at it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Marcum's definitely open to it, but he doesn't make it sound likely:

 

"There hasn't been (talks)," said Marcum. "When we were doing the arbitration thing, we were told they just wanted to do a one-year deal. I'm assuming that's what that means -- we're just doing one year and they're going to let me walk."

[PrinceFielderx1]

If I'm the Brewers I would wait on extending Marcum. It really sounds like they are. Not just because he had a bad September and did poorly in the playoffs, but because he is changing his delivery, and we don't know how this will affect his performance moving forward.

 

"It’s a weird story," he said. "My wife was at my parents’ house helping clean up some stuff, and found a picture from when I was in college. I saw it and was like, ‘Wow, I didn’t realize I used my legs, my backside, that much.’ So I’ve just been kind of trying to do that – use my backside more.

 

"I’ve been almost all arm, it seems like, the last couple years. By doing that, having my legs a little bit stronger, that’ll probably add a little bit more velocity. But at the same time I’ll be able to get down the mound a little further, and by getting down the mound a little further you obviously release the ball closer to home plate."

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/138294429.html

 

Apparently his performance late last season warranted a change. I wouldn't called it a "tweak," because it sounds almost like an overhaul of his delivery going from almost all arm to using his legs and backside more to really take the pressure off his arm.

[rickh150]

I'm not sure what Marcum would want in $ or years, but looking at what he's getting this year, he'll want a boatload of cash per year. There's no way that he's getting a long term contract with the Brewers with that Suppan-like fastball.

Greinke prices himself out of the Brewers range, probably.

No one talks about Wolf, but he has an option for next year that is pretty high. How sad would it be for the Crew to have to pick that up just to form a staff?

[mothershipconnection]

Because he has a $1.5MM buyout, Wolf would cost $8.5MM to keep for 2013. If he pitches well again this year, you could do far worse on a 1 year deal for a healthy average starter.

[nate82]

Greinke prices himself out of the Brewers range, probably.

 

Greinke won't be the one pricing himself out of the Brewers range. That will be all the market and nothing on Greinke. Matt Cain will more than likely get a big contract and you are looking at a contract that would be about similar to what Cain is going to get in free agency. It would be nice to get a Weaver team friendly deal but I doubt that is going to happen at all. The only way that happens is if Greinke signs an extension before he hits free agency because once he hits free agency it makes no sense at all for him to take a lower deal when other teams will be offering him a whole lot more.

 

If Greinke goes to FA I fully expect the Nationals to sign him to a rather big deal. I believe the Nationals are going to go hard after both Cain and Greinke if they are on the market. The Nationals will only get one of Cain or Greinke but it is going to cost a lot for whoever is going to want to sign either Greinke or Cain. Cain is probably going to get a contract at somewhere between 5-7 years and at about $17-20m annually. Greinke will probably get a deal at 5 or 6 years with an annual salary of $16-18m.

[Ennder]

Greinke knows that he had a monster 2nd half last year, I doubt he lets us get a bargain as much as I'd like to lock him up soon.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm sure Greinke is waiting to first get an agent and second to see whether the Brewers implode. Unfortunately, this delay is going to push things back to the point where he's almost certain to test the market. Not many guys sign extensions mid season before they hit free agency. I just hope that Marcum isn't the consolation prize.

[Oldcity]

It sounds like Melvin may actually make a run at it before the end of Spring Training, if you believe TH. He was mentioning all the top pitchers who've signed the last couple years as a barometer. If it's in line with those who have signed before hitting free agency, it will be a good deal.

[monty57]

I'm sure Greinke is waiting to first get an agent and second to see whether the Brewers implode. Unfortunately, this delay is going to push things back to the point where he's almost certain to test the market. Not many guys sign extensions mid season before they hit free agency. I just hope that Marcum isn't the consolation prize.

 

That's entirely possible, but really all Greinke has to do is say "I want the same deal Weaver got," have a good attorney read over the paperwork, and he will get what Weaver got without having the agent's commission taken out.

 

Note: Feel free to insert "I want {year/value}" in place of "I want the same deal Weaver got" if you don't feel Weaver's deal is a reasonable barometer for Greinke. The point is that Greinke could easily work the deal himself if he is reasonably competent.

[Warning Track Power]

I'm sure Greinke is waiting to first get an agent and second to see whether the Brewers implode. Unfortunately, this delay is going to push things back to the point where he's almost certain to test the market. Not many guys sign extensions mid season before they hit free agency. I just hope that Marcum isn't the consolation prize.

 

That's entirely possible, but really all Greinke has to do is say "I want the same deal Weaver got," have a good attorney read over the paperwork, and he will get what Weaver got without having the agent's commission taken out.

 

Note: Feel free to insert "I want {year/value}" in place of "I want the same deal Weaver got" if you don't feel Weaver's deal is a reasonable barometer for Greinke. The point is that Greinke could easily work the deal himself if he is reasonably competent.

 

MLB Trade Rumors made interesting points about Verlander, Weaver and King Felix being bad comparables because Verlander's and King Felix's bought out 2 arbitration years and Weaver wanted to stay close to home. However, if I am the Brewers front office and Greinke tells me he wants more than Weaver's 5 year $85 million, Verlander's 5 year $80 million or King Felix's 5 year $78 million, I tell him thanks but no thanks. Save 2009, he has not been the pitcher these guys have been.

[Oldcity]

However, if I am the Brewers front office and Greinke tells me he wants more than Weaver's 5 year $85 million, Verlander's 5 year $80 million or King Felix's 5 year $78 million, I tell him thanks but no thanks. Save 2009, he has not been the pitcher these guys have been.

 

A crude look at this tells us that isn't the case.

 

Greinke WAR

2008: 4.9

2009: 9.3

2010: 5.1

2011: 3.9 (Would have been right around 5 again without the basketball injury)

Total: 23.2

 

Weaver WAR

2008: 3.4

2009: 3.8

2010: 5.8

2011: 5.6

Total: 18.6

 

Verlander WAR

2008: 3.4

2009: 8.3

2010: 6.4

2011: 7.0

Total: 25.1

 

Hernandez WAR

2008: 3.7

2009: 6.8

2010: 6.2

2011: 5.5

Total: 22.2

 

And just for kicks and giggles, here are two more set to reach free agency with Greinke

 

Cole Hamels WAR

2008: 4.4

2009: 3.6

2010: 3.7

2011: 4.9

Total: 16.6

 

Matt Cain WAR

2008: 3.7

2009: 3.3

2010: 3.7

2011: 5.2

Total: 15.9

 

I definitely wouldn't say Greinke is clearly better, but he definitely belongs in the conversation. Also, I know you said without 2009, but that's hard to just say. It happened, and none of these pitchers put up a season as good as that one (including Verlander, who won the MVP last year).

 

As far as Hamels and Cain, it's pretty clear that Greinke has been better than them. It's likely that Greinke would be considered the top free agent pitcher next off-season, and that means he'd break 100, even 110 mil on the open market in all likelihood. If I were him, I'd ask for more than Weaver's $85 million, both because he's been better the last 4 years, and more because he's closer to free agency than Weaver was.

[Warning Track Power]

Great post Stevo aka Old City.

 

For what its worth, that 9.3 for Greinke sure does look like an outlier to me. He hasn't produced at a level which to me says he deserves much more than Weaver, Hernandez and Verlander. If he is determined to set the market with Cain and Hamels then there is literally nothing the Brewers can do about it because I don't believe they have the financial freedoms to go much higher than Weaver's.

[monty57]

I guess my point was that if he gets the same deal as Weaver, he probably makes $5-6MM more than Weaver because he isn't giving that money to his agent. Even if he got the highest-priced contract attorney in the land to read over and amend the contract where needed, he'd probably pay a few thousand instead of a few million. I certainly wouldn't advise most players to work without an agent, but if the player is reasonably competent and has some faith in his organization, he could easily do it.

 

That said, good post Oldcity. That adds to my desire to see an extension done. The odds of the Brewers replacing Greinke with similar talent seem pretty slim.

[RockCoCougars]

The comparisons to those guys are worthwhile, but to me it comes down as a supply/demand type thing. Those guys were all signed prior to hitting the market, so the comparisons would have been more pertinent to the Greinke situation last year at this time. If Greinke hits free agency this fall, he is going to be right at the top of the list of pitchers (barring injury). If John Lackey and C.J. Wilson can command over $75 million in free agency, Greinke will get more as a 28/29 year old. Look at what the Rangers gave Darvish, and he's yet to throw a pitch. Bottom line, the Brewers need to try to get this done ASAP, or he will probably be getting offers close to nine figures from the usual suspects (I'm particularly worried about the Yankees and Dodgers).

[MVP2110]

If we can go 5/85 for him whats stopping us from going 6/110? I would be all for that as we would have both Gallardo and Greinke locked up for quite awhile

[Oldcity]

The comparisons to those guys are worthwhile, but to me it comes down as a supply/demand type thing. Those guys were all signed prior to hitting the market, so the comparisons would have been more pertinent to the Greinke situation last year at this time.

Yeah, that's exactly why I think Greinke would warrant a higher contract than Weaver at this time... Because he's even closer to free agency than Weaver. A player's demands will/should go up as he gets closer to free agency.

[ilovebeer]

If the Brewers fail to sign either player, just think how many draft choices we would have.