Long-term extension for one: Greinke or Marcum?

[rluzinski]

Yeh really, anyone not happy so far with Wolf's production relative to his salary doesn't have realistic expectations regarding what money will buy in free agency.

[Bnowell4evr]

Yeh really, anyone not happy so far with Wolf's production relative to his salary doesn't have realistic expectations regarding what money will buy in free agency.

I agree completely.

[TooLiveBrew]

He also loved Dave Bush

 

Who, up until taking a laser-beam line-drive off his pitching-side elbow, was also not a soft-tosser.

[nate82]

Sheets and Yo were team members and fan favorites. I wouldn't describe Wolf as working out very well personally. Those one year contracts that you excluded include guys like Braden Looper and Doug Davis redux. He also loved Dave Bush. I remember when he had the stats staff do an analysis of their pitching signings and why they performed so poorly and the result was low velocity. Somehow its never that he's less than magnificent at his job.

Guys that can throw hard and have good stuff don't sign for Looper, Davis, or Wolf like money they sign for Lee and Sabathia type of money. The Brewers really can not afford to do that in free agency so the team is basically stuck with guys like Davis, Looper, and Wolf for free agency additions. I would rather see the Brewers develop their own power arm pitchers but that can be a rather tough task to do. I would prefer the Brewers to sign Greinke to a long-term extension over Marcum as I just don't see Marcum working out over a long period of time. I would rather let the Red Sox and the Yankees overpay for Marcum in terms of years and dollars.

Greinke is definitely the player the Brewers should extend. If the price is right and if Greinke will take a deal like what Weaver did with the Angels I would be fine with that but that is probably more fantasy than it is reality.

 

[Menace II Sobriety]

I know this post is pointless in several ways but if the Melvin would not have traded for Marcum (even though Lawrie would than have been used in the Greinke deal) . I think Pineda could have been had this offseason. Of course this would have changed the whole dynamic of last season and all of that. But if Lawrie performed for the Crew like he did for the Jays I doubt he would have been traded but that was a once in a 4-5 year trade and I would love to have that kind of talent locked up for several years at a reasonable price. This is the exact trade that many posters on here always call for.

[RightFieldCoder]

LaPorta was also a can't miss prospect that we could have had for 6 years. You never know which prospect will blossom and who will turn into Ryan Leaf.

[Madtown343]

I think Gallardo, Grienke, and Peralta could be a pretty nice 1-2-3 of power arms to go with a 4,5 of reasonably priced arms for the next 4+ years.

[Menace II Sobriety]

I agree, I was just thinking if that trade were an option this year (if Lawrie was still in the system) who would blink first.

[Ennder]

Opposing hitters normally do not slug .412 (like they did off Grienke) off one of the best pitchers in baseball in a normal year and last year pitching dominated.

Like the .422 SLG that Haren put up in 2010 which was also a fluke seen by his 2011 or the .394 by Hamels which was a fluke etc. SLG just is not a useful way to try to judge pitchers over a tiny little 177 IP sample. We obviously are never going to agree on how to evaluate pitching but I'd think at the very least you could realize that one year of results isn't a very good way to judge the future because one year of results are erratic for all players. That is the entire reason people look at the underlying stats instead of the results, they are just downright better at predicting future success.

[TooLiveBrew]

All of the top pitchers seem to have extreme spikes in their performance in any given season. I remember reading someone on BF.net's forums (don't remember who) talk about how overrated Justin Verlander was, and not surprisingly that was after his 2008 season (4.84 ERA). Then, of course, there was Verlander 2011. After the Brewers traded for Greinke, I posted a comparison of several top SPs with Greinke, going just year to year with ERA. All of the other guys had extreme high & low seasons, and Greinke was one of the more consistent performers. Greinke got hurt, missed a lot of time, & had his routine thrown out of whack last season. So I can't say I'm too surprised he had an off-year.

 

He's a tremendous athlete, and exactly the type of risk you should take if you decide to offer a long contract. The Prince & Greinke situations are really interesting to compare, to me. The super-athlete v. the guy who some think will eat himself out of the league, hitter v. pitcher, both about the same age, from the same region & competitors since they were kids. I'd guess Greinke is probably going to be a lot less expensive than Fielder was, but if he isn't, there's probably close to zero chance for the Brewers to re-sign him. If he is cheaper, then the comparison gets crazy. I'm not of the mind that position players have more value because SPs only go every 5th day, so to me the Brewers could theoretically be getting the more-impactful player for less than half of the money guaranteed to Fielder.

[monty57]

It's great to hear Greinke speaking publicly about being open to a contract extension. I like that we finally have some minor league pitching depth, but I'm much more comfortable with them easing into the 3,4, 5 spots into the rotation over the next few years than I am hoping one of them will be an ace. If one of them does develop into someone who can make Greinke our #3, then I'd be really happy.

 

If Marcum wants to add a year or two extension and it fits in the budget, then great, but Melvin should focus on Greinke first.

 

Yeh really, anyone not happy so far with Wolf's production relative to his salary doesn't have realistic expectations regarding what money will buy in free agency.

 

There are "casual fans" I talk with who formed their opinion on Wolf after his first few months, and nothing Wolf does seems to be enough to change their opinion. I'm certainly happy with what he's done.

[Invader3K]

Personally Wolf won me over with his "I'm confused why I suck right now," line during his first season with the Crew.

[Madtown343]

Wolf has been as good as advertised, and has pretty much been exactly what we signed. A guy who will keep you in most of the games he pitches and take the ball every single time his name is called.

 

I know in the end it was a moot point, but his win in STL to even the series and guarantee that it would return home was one of the biggest moments of the season.

[TheCrew07]

LaPorta was also a can't miss prospect that we could have had for 6 years. You never know which prospect will blossom and who will turn into Ryan Leaf.

That's a bit of a stretch, he was viewed as a nice power prospect with some legit holes in his swing. BA ranked him pretty high, but the scouting reports on him weren't necessarily glowing as far as the hit tool was concerned.

 

 

edit. I guess here's the thing, true can't miss prospects are few and far between. Out of our system I thought Braun, Fielder, and Gallardo were can't miss, that's it. I championed players like Hart, Gamel, Hardy, Escobar, Weeks, Braddock, Axford, Lucroy, and Parra, but there's a wide gulf between thinking a player is going to be good and being willing to bet or say definitively that a player is going to be a stud. I might like a guy, be really high on a guy, but few guys are "can't miss". Outside of our system those guys are like a Price, Longoria, Trout, Lincecum, and Stanton, playerss who I am positive will be perennial all-stars.

 

I talk quite a bit about TB's system but outside of Price they haven't had a can't miss young pitcher. They have tons of guys I'm very high on, and Moore is pushing "can't miss" status, but I saw most of those guys as 2/3 type pitchers which are incredibly valuable, and I would have traded for any of them, but I wouldn't have been shocked if any had went Manny Parra either. I learned my lesson a long time ago with "can't miss". LaPorta is really only 2 tool player, maybe a 1 tool player... he didn't have a defensive position, didn't run well, I don't recall him having a strong throwing arm, there was plenty of talk about holes in his swing, but does have legit power. I wasn't sorry he was traded, I just wanted a different solution, and while I thought he'd manage to hit around .270, I'm not shocked that he's a .238 career hitter either. With a decent batting average, the rest of his line would be okay.

[danzig6767]

Yeh really, anyone not happy so far with Wolf's production relative to his salary doesn't have realistic expectations regarding what money will buy in free agency.

 

There are "casual fans" I talk with who formed their opinion on Wolf after his first few months, and nothing Wolf does seems to be enough to change their opinion. I'm certainly happy with what he's done.

It's not just casual fans who won't stop ripping on Wolf and Melvin for signing him, regardless that Wolf has earned his money given the salary structure in baseball. Nearly all of the more than casual fans still feeling this way were also the ones who at the time of the signing proclaimed it would end up being Suppan part two and they won't back off their stance, actual production be damned.

 

As for being able to sign Greinke to an extension, i think the ball is about 99% in his court. If he wants to maximize his financial value to the last dollar, Zach very likely won't be staying here beyond this season. If instead he likes it here enough that staying is pretty high on his priority list, thus he'll sign an extension that still makes him really wealthy vs socalled "testing the market" as Prince did, then i see it likely that Attanasio/Greinke will eventually find common ground on an extension.

[monty57]

If instead he likes it here enough that staying is pretty high on his priority list

 

Or if he likes the concept of guaranteeing himself a very large amount of money, thus eliminating the risk that a blown shoulder this season would seriously diminish his ability to earn any more money as a baseball player. His risk is down to one year, but it's still a significant risk, and is probably the biggest reason many players these days are signing extensions when they are offered rather than playing for free agency. Boras clients are the notable exception to this.

[Menace II Sobriety]

Looks like I was on the right track about a Pineda - Lawrie swap.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/blue-jays-turned-down-pineda-for-lawrie-swap.html

 

Blue Jays, Mariners Talked Pineda For Lawrie Swap

Alex Anthopoulos hinted last night that some young Blue Jays drew trade interest this offseason, and Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail has the details on some talks that never materialized. The Blue Jays and Mariners discussed Michael Pineda, but the Blue Jays balked when the Mariners wanted Brett Lawrie in return for the right-hander, according to Blair's sources.

Instead, the Yankees obtained Pineda for Jesus Montero last month and the Blue Jays held onto Lawrie. The 22-year-old British Columbia native made his MLB debut in 2011, posting a .293/.373/.580 line in 171 plate appearances. Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik selected Lawrie in the first round of the 2008 draft when he was Milwaukee's scouting director. Meanwhile, Pineda posted a 3.74 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 171 innings as a rookie last year.

[reillymcshane]

I'm not the biggest fan of Wolf, but he's been a solid addition to the team. Was it an overpay? Yes. Not a Suppan overpay, but still $2-3 million over market. But that's what we had to do to get his attention. He's filled in nicely into the back part of the rotation. He's taken the ball regularly - more than 210 innings each year. No one else has done that.

 

His declining strikeout rate is a potential red flag, but he seems like he's adapting pretty well to his skillset.

[RockCoCougars]

I was big time against the Wolf signing, but I'll admit that I was wrong. Outside of his horrible start, he's been very good. If he puts together another year like last year, his deal will probably go down as the best multi-year free agent acquisition in franchise history. The problem with the Brewers giving any non home-grown pitcher big money is that everyone will immediately fear another Suppan. He was so horrible, that it's hard to fault people for being gun shy.

[Warning Track Power]

The lack of news on a potential Greinke extension kind of stinks. I was really hoping this would be the top priority of the offseason and thought it would get done. I know just because we are approaching the start of spring training doesn't mean it won't get done but I was fully expecting more chatter about this then there has been.

[Baldkin]

The lack of news on a potential Greinke extension kind of stinks. I was really hoping this would be the top priority of the offseason and thought it would get done. I know just because we are approaching the start of spring training doesn't mean it won't get done but I was fully expecting more chatter about this then there has been.

Well, Melvin's crew has been amazingly tight lipped in the past about extensions, at least, in my memory. Braun, Gallardo and Week's extensions all sort of came "out of nowhere".

[GoudaBrew]

I would assume he'd have to hire a new agency first right? He's not going negotiate his own extension. I know he's not your average player, but I think that would be well over his head and he would know that. He could have done that without any fan-fair either I suppose.

[brwrsfan]

I know it's different in basketball with set max contracts and whatnot, but didn't Ray Allen negotiate his own extension with the Bucks a long ways back? I'm pretty sure he did and then simply hired a lawyer to look it over for him. He said he paid the lawyer like $500 an hour, cost him a few grand and that was that. Didn't want to pay an agent 5 or 10% on a deal he could do on his own.

 

Like I said, much different in basketball, but it has been done in the past I believe.

[monty57]

I know it's different in basketball with set max contracts and whatnot, but didn't Ray Allen negotiate his own extension with the Bucks a long ways back? I'm pretty sure he did and then simply hired a lawyer to look it over for him. He said he paid the lawyer like $500 an hour, cost him a few grand and that was that. Didn't want to pay an agent 5 or 10% on a deal he could do on his own.

 

Like I said, much different in basketball, but it has been done in the past I believe.

 

I remember one of the Packers' lineman (Ken Ruettgers or someone around that era) used to be his own agent. It's risky, but if the player is relatively intelligent, has some trust in the organization, and hires a competent attorney to help, he could work without an agent.

 

On the flip side, I could see the organization looking pretty bad in the eyes of other players if they negotiated with a player and signed a ridiculously team-friendly deal. It may come back & bite them when dealing with potential future free agents. I believe the Saints signed Rickey Williams to a ridiculous deal after Williams hired a rap star to be his agent, and after there was a big backlash they tore up the contract and signed him to a more standard deal.

[DocLuna7]

I know it's different in basketball with set max contracts and whatnot, but didn't Ray Allen negotiate his own extension with the Bucks a long ways back? I'm pretty sure he did and then simply hired a lawyer to look it over for him. He said he paid the lawyer like $500 an hour, cost him a few grand and that was that. Didn't want to pay an agent 5 or 10% on a deal he could do on his own.

 

Like I said, much different in basketball, but it has been done in the past I believe.

 

I am pretty sure that Gary Sheffield became his own agent as well, and negotiated his deal with Steinbrenner and the Yankees himself.