Long-term extension for one: Greinke or Marcum?

[chickinbrickin]

Neither makes sense for the Brewers.

 

Greinke is going to want a long term deal (5 years or more), in the range of $16-18 million per. He's had one outstanding season. If he happens to revert to his 2009 form, he's going to want $20 million per. If he doesn't, he shouldn't get more than $13 millon per year. Those kind of contracts for pitchers are risky for the big boys (Lackey, Burnett, Zambrano). They can be devasting for small market teams.

 

If Marcum repeats his 2011, he's going to want $50 million over 4 minimum. That's way too much for a soft tosser who proved unreliable in the postseason.

 

Bradley, Jungmann, Peralta, Thornburg, etc. That's the future of the Brewer rotation They can always add a vet here and there to fill out the rotation or those guys can be used in deals to get premier pitchers for short term investments like they did to get Greinke and Marcum in the first place I prefer investing in youth with starting pitching. The Gallardo model is the way to go.

I prefer to lock up Greinke. I can't call those guys the future Brewer Rotation because outside of Peralta no one is guaranteed to even get to bigs anytime soon or ever. Eric Arnett can chime in on how first round college pitchers pan out. I need to see something from them (Bradley Jungmann) before I will deem them the future, and let a top line starter walk. I like the sound of Gallardo, Greinke, ? , ? , ? more than the sound of Gallardo, ?, ? , ?, ?.

[DHonks]

Bradley, Jungmann, Peralta, Thornburg, etc. That's the future of the Brewer rotation

JohnBriggs12, I think you forgot the blue font. I want all of these guys to do well, along with Rogers, Rivas, Scarpetta, etc. But I also remember being excited by such former prospects as Kyle Peterson, JM Gold, Nick Neugebauer, Jose Mieses, Chad Robinson, Eric Thomas (both?), Will Inman, Ben Hendrickson, Cody Adams, etc etc etc

 

Several I mentioned proved more than everyone you mentioned. They have to beat the odds to get to the big leagues and they need to do so without injury. I love our depth, but I'd expect 1 of those 4 to actually contribute in the big leagues.

[clancyphile]

They have to do Greinke. He's the #2 guy behind Gallardo, and the least replaceable.

[MVP2110]

I think by signing Greinke to a say 5/6 yr deal it ensures the Brewers of remaining competitive for the division for the next several Seasons. and anything can happen once you get in the playoffs.

[Ennder]

Greinke was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year. I'd be looking to extend him now while his value is still low because after this season he will likely be asking for ace money assuming he stays healthy. Over the past 4 years he has a 3.37 ERA with 3.8 K per BB and last year he actually had better peripherals than in his CY year, he is on the verge of elite.

 

My guess is we can't afford him though and I'd wait to see how Marcum pitches this year before discussing extending him.

[adambr2]

Greinke was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year. I'd be looking to extend him now while his value is still low because after this season he will likely be asking for ace money assuming he stays healthy. Over the past 4 years he has a 3.37 ERA with 3.8 K per BB and last year he actually had better peripherals than in his CY year, he is on the verge of elite.

 

My guess is we can't afford him though and I'd wait to see how Marcum pitches this year before discussing extending him.

Not saying that you're statistically wrong, it's just hard to believe from the way last year went that this is true.

Looking back I recall being frustrated and disappointed with Greinke last year more than I was thrilled with him.

[TheCrew07]

Ennder's opinion is likely based almost entirely on FIP or xFIP, both of which are derivatives of his rate stats like BB rate, K rate, K:BB, and so on. I'm not a fan of derived statistics that don't into account the actual result, certainly the pitcher bears some responsibility for a ball in play: how hard it's hit, the type of hit, and to what location come immediately to mind. Which is why for the most part I have no use for advanced pitching metrics, ignoring the end result is simply hogwash in my opinion. It's like BABIP... originally they were trying to isolate luck and defense so HRs didn't count, as such non HR hitters always had "unsustainably" high BABIPs. Isn't a HR the ultimate ball in play? Shouldn't the pitcher be penalized and the batter be rewarded regardless if the defense had to make a play? Aren't runs still scoring? Essentially all BABIP does is tell us who's hot and who's not, that's about it, all the talk about regression either way is simply spin. The same is true of pitching metrics like FIP... for years people posted how Parra was unlucky because his FIP was a 4 something while his ERA was a 5 something. I REALLY like Manny, I throw left handed, I've gravitated towards every lefty in our system, and in reality LHPs that run gas in the mid 90s and have 3 quality secondary pitches should be dominant, but he's just never gotten there. Watching him implode in games I wasn't thinking about how unlucky he was, I was thinking about how much talent he was pissing away. FIP, xFIP, WAR... it doesn't matter metric we use, the metric isn't THE picture, it's just part of the overall view of that player.

 

Greinke has elite stuff but he also throws more bad pitches in a game than any other Brewer pitcher, I was shocked at how many grooved fastballs and hanging sliders he left up over the middle of the plate when I watched him closely last season. He just gets away with so many bad pitches because he keeps hitters off balance, but when those pitches get crushed as they should, then he gets the "unlucky" moniker because his rate stats are so good. I never thought we were getting an "Ace", his career numbers don't support that notion, especially his IP. He's not a guy who's going to pitching into the 8th inning on a consistent basis, he's quite a bit like Gallardo in that you'll hopefully get a dominant 6 or 7 and go to the pen. There's nothing wrong with a dominant 6 or 7 other than the fact that every pitcher on the staff adds to the strain on the bullpen unlike a Sheets in his prime who we could count on to give the BP a rest a handful of times per season. We paid for him in talent like we were getting an ace though because of his CY season, and I fear that he'll command that type of money in FA as well. I'm not one to overpay for anyone, I don't care who they are, so my willingness to resign Greinke depends entirely on what it will take in years and dollars. At a premium price I want no part of him, anything approaching 20 mil, forget it. Mid teens would depend on the number of years.

 

Obviously I despise how people continually spin events that transpire in a baseball game as "lucky" or "unlucky", and I tried not be one of those posters who made the sarcastic "unlucky HR" or "unlucky double" posts when Greinke wasn't pitching well, but I did get pissed enough that I dropped my share. However, I do believe that with the exception of 2-3 games, his results on the season were exactly what he deserved. I just don't think given Greinke's pitching style he'll ever dominate the better teams in baseball on a consistent basis, better hitters don't swing at all that junk off the plate and he looked pretty terrible on his AL east swing last season. Small sample size for sure, but it also highlighted that contrary to what Bill says on the broadcasts, you just can't bury pitches in the dirt off the plate and get MLB hitters out. If it doesn't look like a strike out of the pitcher's hand then the batter isn't going to swing. We've had our fair share of players who did, Jenkins late in his career and Hart early in his come to mind, but the top hitting teams don't help the pitchers out all that much. Certainly some hitters will get themselves out, but I never feel good about Greinke matching up against a team of patient OBP type players, I feel much better about him against the more free swinging teams.

[TooLiveBrew]

Greinke has elite stuff but he also throws more bad pitches in a game than any other Brewer pitcher

 

To keep the discussion fair, especially if you want to nitpick with Ennder's comment, I think you should have to say "threw... in 2011" instead of "throws". Unless you can back it up with a significant sample size (not meaning just familiar stats, could be simply factual observation) showing that this is something Greinke "does", as opposed to "did in 2011," I don't think that's either a useful or fair way to talk about his performance, skillset, or value.

[Ennder]

I'm not a fan of derived statistics that don't into account the actual result, certainly the pitcher bears some responsibility for a ball in play: how hard it's hit, the type of hit, and to what location come immediately to mind. Which is why for the most part I have no use for advanced pitching metrics, ignoring the end result is simply hogwash in my opinion

 

Everyone is welcome to their opinion but I personally don't care about the results of 2011, that season is over. xFIP and FIP both show a much stronger year to year correlation than ERA is the reality and what I care about is what he is likely to do over the next few seasons. ERA is heavily out of a pitchers control over a sample of 200 IP or less. Even ignoring that as I posted he has a 3.41 ERA over his past 945 IP and that is playing most of his games in the AL and all of his games with horrible defensive teams behind him and his peripherals have improved over that time so nothing seems to be regressing here. That is why I said I lock him up now because hopefully the off season in 2010 combined with the goofy ERA from 2011 depresses his value and you get a bargain.

 

As for luck, I doubt you can find a major league baseball player who doesn't believe in it playing a part in individual games. Just like Poker though when given a large enough sample luck (or variance) gets weeded out, 177 IP is not a large sample for ERA, it takes around 500 IP for it to really normalize.

[thebruce44]

Greinke was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year. I'd be looking to extend him now while his value is still low because after this season he will likely be asking for ace money assuming he stays healthy. Over the past 4 years he has a 3.37 ERA with 3.8 K per BB and last year he actually had better peripherals than in his CY year, he is on the verge of elite.

 

My guess is we can't afford him though and I'd wait to see how Marcum pitches this year before discussing extending him.

Not saying that you're statistically wrong, it's just hard to believe from the way last year went that this is true.

Looking back I recall being frustrated and disappointed with Greinke last year more than I was thrilled with him.

I remember being frustrated and disappointed with the defense behind him more than with Greinke himself. I imagine he felt the same way when he would try to do everything himself resulting in a poorly timed HR.

[CheezWizHed]

I throw left handed

 

So how fast can you throw? What is your BABIP against LHBs? Would you sign for a minor league contract with an invite to camp? We are still looking for a LOOGY... http://www.ezboard.com/intl/aenglish/images/emoticons/wink.gif

[StearnsFTW]

Encouraging news:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors...k&utm_source=twitterfeed

 

At least zack's willing to listen.

[umphrey]

“Everything feels really good at the stadium and stuff, the team is great, and I love the whole coaching staff and front office, too,â€

[Oldcity]

I had to laugh at Greinke being honest once again.

 

"Last year there were 5-7 offenses in the National League that were

better than ours. Our pitching staff is what kind of carried us. It was

the bigger part of our year."

[dunder]

Aside from the risk of injury, I see no reason NOT to offer Zack say 5 years x 16 mill tacked onto this year. As Briggs said, at the low end he is worth 13 a year and at the high end 20. In the playoffs you need a high, high quality 1-2. That will get you a long, long way. So you would be better to have two number 1s and 3 number 4s.

 

So my thinking is you offer Zack. You leave Marcum alone and hope he has a great '12 so you can offer him a one year contract in the 12.5 mill cutoff range so if you lose him, you end up with a draft pick. Wolf with his 10 mill option will be interesting. I can see that as good value for next year.

 

If you cant sign Zack, you have kind of wasted your money on Ramirez. Ramirez is a signing that says were are serious for THREE years, not just 2012. In free agency the Crew really cannot, cannot get good value on a number 1 pitcher. It was great to offer CC the 20 mill. But if you offer at the end, then you have no chance. If we do not extend Zack before the start of year, my feeling is 2013 and 2014 are the start of a prolonged period of rebuilding. Because you will be 'ok' with Yo and Ramirez and all that, but never quite good enough. Then Yo is gone and Weeks is gone and you never have a strong team. Just an OK 'old' team with guys dropping off each year. And you cannot replace the top guys with rookies.

 

So, really Zack will be a big extension. You need pitchers who can dominate for the playoffs.

[Madtown343]

Stevo -

 

That line was funny, and he made another comment that unintentionally was a blow at the rest of the bullpen. He said something like losing Hawk and Saito is a big hit to the bullpen, but I guess we will just have to make sure we pitch 7 strong innings this year rather than 6.

 

Makes me think when he says he likes Milw, likes the team, the management, etc. He is not sugar coating anything. I would pounce on this extension talk while he does not have an agent. Come right out an ask what he thinks is enough to keep him happy pitching somewhere he likes for the next 4-5 years. I would bet Zach would actually suggest a number not to far off of what he deserves.

[JohnBriggs12]

Greinke was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year. I'd be looking to extend him now while his value is still low because after this season he will likely be asking for ace money assuming he stays healthy. Over the past 4 years he has a 3.37 ERA with 3.8 K per BB and last year he actually had better peripherals than in his CY year, he is on the verge of elite.

 

My guess is we can't afford him though and I'd wait to see how Marcum pitches this year before discussing extending him.

Opposing hitters normally do not slug .412 (like they did off Grienke) off one of the best pitchers in baseball in a normal year and last year pitching dominated.

[rluzinski]

This is like looking at two homes you end up liking and then being asked which one you like better.... without knowing how much they cost. Greinke will almost certainly cost more money because he's the better pitcher but tell me how much more and then I can answer.

 

As for how much " bad luck" played a role in Greinke's ERA/FIP disparity last year, it's not 100% but I think it's obvious that it played a significant role. We all went over the evidence that supports that already, so anyone who doesn't agree is never going to.

[pete]

I vote Greinke. The question is what Melvin will do. A soft tosser with bad mechanics seems like someone he would overpay.

[jjfanec]

I vote Greinke. The question is what Melvin will do. A soft tosser with bad mechanics seems like someone he would overpay.

Melvin signed Sheets, and Gallardo to an extensions and went hard after the CC. Those really aren't soft-tossers

The soft-tossers I can think he signed to more than one year deals were Wolf (working out very well) and Suppan (terrible).

[fondybrewfan]

I hope that we need just two expensive starters in 2013 (Gallardo & Grienke) and that some of our newly founded minor league pitching depth emerges as bonafide #1-#3 materials in 2012. I would hate to spend to0 much money on the rotation.

[jjfanec]

I hope that we need just two expensive starters in 2013 (Gallardo & Grienke) and that some of our newly founded minor league pitching depth emerges as bonafide #1-#3 materials in 2012. I would hate to spend to0 much money on the rotation.

I agree. If we lock up Greinke I would hope some of Peralta, Fiers, Narveson, Thornburg could be part of the rest of the rotation. We may still need one more guy. I guess it could be Estrada. I know you can't expect every prospect to be have success but if Narveson can continue to improve then you only need 2 of Peralta, Fiers, Thornburg, Rogers, Scarpetta (and maybe Jungmann and Bradley but they are pretty far away) to step up.

[pete]

Sheets and Yo were team members and fan favorites. I wouldn't describe Wolf as working out very well personally. Those one year contracts that you excluded include guys like Braden Looper and Doug Davis redux. He also loved Dave Bush. I remember when he had the stats staff do an analysis of their pitching signings and why they performed so poorly and the result was low velocity. Somehow its never that he's less than magnificent at his job.

[jjfanec]

Sheets and Yo were team members and fan favorites. I wouldn't describe Wolf as working out very well personally. Those one year contracts that you excluded include guys like Braden Looper and Doug Davis redux. He also loved Dave Bush. I remember when he had the stats staff do an analysis of their pitching signings and why they performed so poorly and the result was low velocity. Somehow its never that he's less than magnificent at his job.

Well Greinke is a team member so I think that actually leads to the idea Melvin would go with him does it not? I dont really think 1-year deals give us any insight into this scenario with Greinke or Marcum since very few if any hard-throwers could be found on one year deals. I remember this board clamoring for Melvin to take a risk on hard throwers like Sheets (later in his career) and Rich Harden and neither did anything. Melvin has made bad signing but you act like he doesnt try for hard throwers.

Who are the hard throwers that have hit FA recently that Melvin could have went after? A few years back in was CC and Melvin went hard after him. I highly doubt Cliff Lee was coming here. I dont want to sound like a Melvin-apologist because there are signings of his I definitely didnt like

[Warning Track Power]

Sheets and Yo were team members and fan favorites. I wouldn't describe Wolf as working out very well personally. Those one year contracts that you excluded include guys like Braden Looper and Doug Davis redux. He also loved Dave Bush. I remember when he had the stats staff do an analysis of their pitching signings and why they performed so poorly and the result was low velocity. Somehow its never that he's less than magnificent at his job.

Randy Wolf Pitching Stats for Years 2010 to 2011

Year
Tm
W
L
W-L%
ERA
G
GS
GF
CG
SHO
SV
IP
H
R
ER
HR
BB
IBB
SO
HBP
BK
WP
BF
ERA+
WHIP
H/9
HR/9
BB/9
SO/9
SO/BB


2010-2011
MIL
26
22
.542
3.93
67
67
0
1
1
0
428.0
427
202
187
52
153
7
276
22
1
6
1839
101
1.355
9.0
1.1
3.2
5.8
1.80

I don't think I could've expected more out of Randy Wolf over the past two seasons for $18.3 million. While he isn't the #2 we signed him to be, he hasn't exactly "not worked out" in my opinion. I think just about everyone of us would have taken this line 2 years into his deal when we signed him prior to the 2010 season.