Roy Oswalt?

[TooLiveBrew]

On the one hand, I'm glad to see Melvin is apparently at least doing his due diligence on a guy like Oswalt. On the other hand, shelling out another $8M or so, just so you can possibly upgrade over Narveson ... I dunno. Don't get me wrong, talent-wise, Oswalt is a big upgrade over Narveson. I'm just not sure you'd get your full money's worth in hoping Oswalt gives you 190+ IP.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I agree, I really don't understand it either. If he came at a bargain it does make sense. It's just Melvin doing what he can to improve the team. Not sure if Narveson in the bullpen again is a good thing though. But with out lack of a reliable lefty in the pen, I can see where Melvin is going with this.

[MNBrew]

More talent is more talent, and you can never have enough pitching. I don't see this as likely for our Brewers, but I still think Narveson would make yet one more proven arm for the 'pen & yet greater rotation depth (w/ Estrada, Fiers, Peralta, etc.) beyond the Top 5.

[Bnowell4evr]

Oswalt is a division changer which is why signing him makes sense on so many levels.

1. Adds another power arm to our rotation that got lit up in the postseason.

2. Gives us 5 guys who are #3's or better.

3. Bolsters our bullpen so we don't have to rely on both Parra and Braddock.

4. Lessens the blow of losing Fielder and possibly Braun for 50 games.

5. Last but not least prevents him from being a Cardinal.

[jjkoestler]

Oswalt should have a better season, but Narvy is cheap and great as a #5 starter. If someone gets hurt the Brewers have options in Estrada, Peralta, and Parra.

 

Narvy projections (Bill James) 2012

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO

7

8

4.13

26

22

0

133.0

132

61

16

51

3

108

K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP		FIP

7.31

3.45

2.12

1.08

.260

1.38

.303

4.24

 

Oswalt projections (Bill James) 2012

 

W	L	ERA	G	GS	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	HBP	SO

11

8

3.47

28

26

0

171.0

165

66

15

43

6

133

K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP		FIP

7.00

2.26

3.09

0.79

.255

1.22

.300

3.52

[Invader3K]

I'm sure the Brewers have kicked the tires on him, but I doubt there have been any real negotiations or anything. I don't think we can beat out the Rangers, etc. if they have interest.

[jerichoholicninja]

I just don't see the upgrade being worth the money.

[Oldcity]

If they're willing to do this, they should look into Edwin Jackson instead.

[Invader3K]

From what I've heard, Oswalt is behaving like Roger Clemens, and is only interested in like two teams. I doubt the Brewers are on his short list (though crazier things have happened, I suppose).

[TheCrew07]

Oswalt is a division changer which is why signing him makes sense on so many levels.

That's awfully best case scenario considering he'll be 34 next season and just had his lowest IP since he was 25. It might be a blip on the radar, or it might be the beginning of the end.

 

He's no longer a power arm, more an above average arm, his average FB was 91.5 last season.

 

I'm not sure how you can claim he's a bullpen saver, he averaged 6.04 IP per game last season, the season before he was 6.5, the season before that 6.03 IP per start. At this point in his career you're looking to get a solid 6-7 from him and go to the pen. I don't think it's necessarily fair to compare Oswalt against a #5 pitcher, but he's about 1 out per game better than Narveson on average.

 

The biggest point you neglected to mention was how the team pays for him? The Brewers are already significantly over budget, around 10% so, even at an incredible steal like $6 million for next season could the Brewers even do it? Would Roy take a 1 year deal for that little money given his history?

 

Oswalt was a very good pitcher, he's still pretty darn good, but he's also going to be 34 coming off his worst season. If you're going to commit multiple years which a pitcher of his caliber should demand, you'd better be sure he's going to maintain his current level of play over the course of his contract. I'm not one to project the best or worst case for a pitcher, but the assumptions you posted about Oswalt seem awfully best case from where I'm sittting.

[Bnowell4evr]

Oswalt is a division changer which is why signing him makes sense on so many levels.

That's awfully best case scenario considering he'll be 34 next season and just had his lowest IP since he was 25. It might be a blip on the radar, or it might be the beginning of the end.

 

He's no longer a power arm, more an above average arm, his average FB was 91.5 last season.

 

I'm not sure how you can claim he's a bullpen saver, he averaged 6.04 IP per game last season, the season before he was 6.5, the season before that 6.03 IP per start. At this point in his career you're looking to get a solid 6-7 from him and go to the pen. I don't think it's necessarily fair to compare Oswalt against a #5 pitcher, but he's about 1 out per game better than Narveson on average.

 

The biggest point you neglected to mention was how the team pays for him? The Brewers are already significantly over budget, around 10% so, even at an incredible steal like $6 million for next season could the Brewers even do it? Would Roy take a 1 year deal for that little money given his history?

 

Oswalt was a very good pitcher, he's still pretty darn good, but he's also going to be 34 coming off his worst season. If you're going to commit multiple years which a pitcher of his caliber should demand, you'd better be sure he's going to maintain his current level of play over the course of his contract. I'm not one to project the best or worst case for a pitcher, but the assumptions you posted about Oswalt seem awfully best case from where I'm sittting.

I'll hit on all your points.

1. Oswalt only wants a 1 year contract to reestablish his value on next years market. If it was a multi year deal I wouldn't want anything to do with him either but it's a different story on a 1 year deal full of incentives.

2. I still consider a 91.5 mph fastball as a power arm. His fastball is right up with Cliff Lee (91.5) along with Chad Billingsly (91.5) and faster than Matt Cain (91.2), Gavin Floyd, (91.2), James Shields (91.0) and Jeremy Hellickson (91.0). I was watching some highlights from later in the year when his back wasn't bothering him and his fastball was at 93 and 94 consistently.

3. I never said he was a bullpen saver I just said he would make our entire pitching staff better by pushing Narveson to the pen. I'm a big proponent of having two lefties in your pen and as of right now our top two options include a guy who hasn't pitched in a year and another who probably wishes he took 2011 off. I love Braddock and Parra's upside but I question their durability so adding another lefty to the competition can only be a good thing.

4. I'm not quite sure how they would afford Oswalt but when we hear Attanasio talk about saving money away for special circumstances I can't help but think this would apply. How many times do you get a pitcher of this caliber looking for a 1 year deal roughly 3 weeks away from spring training? The fact that we've kicked the tires on Oswalt, Lee and Coffey tells me were not as strapped for cash as it really seems.

[Bnowell4evr]

But none of that matters now because my worst nightmare is coming true. Oswalt to the Cardinals is an absolute killer http://www.ezboard.com/intl/aenglish/images/emoticons/frown.gif

[Bombers]

I thought it was a done deal too but MLBTR is saying it isn't

http://www.mlbtraderumors...atest-on-roy-oswalt.html

[brwrsfan]

If the Cardinals get Oswalt, we all know what will happen. We've seen it time and again. They'll sign him, and even though he's getting older, getting worse and has health issues. He'll wind up on the Cardinals, and start pitching like it's the early 2000's again while somehow staying healthy all year long.

[narwhalattack]

If the Cardinals get Oswalt, we all know what will happen. We've seen it time and again. They'll sign him, and even though he's getting older, getting worse and has health issues. He'll wind up on the Cardinals, and start pitching like it's the early 2000's again while somehow staying healthy all year long.

Dave Duncan's not there to rub some magic onto him anymore.

[Eye Black]

If the Cardinals get Oswalt, we all know what will happen. We've seen it time and again. They'll sign him, and even though he's getting older, getting worse and has health issues. He'll wind up on the Cardinals, and start pitching like it's the early 2000's again while somehow staying healthy all year long.

Kind of like last season when they traded for Furcal and I convinced myself he was too old and broken to make an impact even though the pit in my stomach was saying, "Oh $h*t".

[dunder]

And in my hunting for a great RH OF bat to pinch hit, I stumbled accross Ryan Ludwick (signed with the Reds now for 2 million for a 'comeback' year). The guy was great... in St Louis, then he left St Louis and is no good. I honestly think there is something odd going on over there. Year after year guys leave and are then no good. Or guys who have become no good, sign and rekindle their lost youth... and STATS. Ok, once or twice... fine. But if it happens more, by far, than any other team

 

Well, I think I have worked it out. They take their daily vitamins 'in the right way - the respectful way; they respect those 'vitamins' (in the right way)' Funny how the players only show the vitamins respect in St Louis. Before and after St Louis, they seem to lose all respect for their vitamins.

[RockCoCougars]

I seem to think that there is a little more than luck to the whole 'Cardinals thing' as well. Maybe God was on Albert's side? I think it's bigger than the Cardinals at any rate though, LaRussa/Duncan had a solid track record of turning careers around. Eckersley, Dave Stewart and Bob Welch come to mind immediately from the Oakland days. I really think that people are downplaying the loss of LaRussa and Duncan way too much.

[brettac1]

Yeah, I think those guys were just really great at their jobs. LaRussa was the master of putting his players in position to succeed.

[Menotti80]

Oswalt to meet with Texas this week

[craigharmann]

Oswalt to meet with Texas this week

Yes, please, on every level imaginable.

[TURBO]

I know I am dreaming, but I would love a shot at Oswalt for our #4 spot in the rotation!

[PrinceEatMeat]

Just saw a report saying that Oswalt will make a decision tomorrow. Not sure I buy it, but take it FWIW.

[brettac1]

Sounds like he might pull a Clemens and join a contender at midseason.

[jerichoholicninja]

I get the feeling he's done. He said during his last season in Houston that if they didn't resign him he was going to retire. Unless the Astros or maybe Rangers offer him a deal I don't see him playing again.