Hart to get 30 games at 1B?

[CheezWizHed]

This just seems to scream that we will be signing Aoki, IMO. Otherwise, why would you pick Hart to 1B instead of Ramirez? I suppose Green being LH might have something to do with it. Granted, so is Aoki...

 

Also, I don't get why having a backup plan (or simply a backup for rest days) equates to the Brewers not giving Gamel a chance. Hart himself was broken into the MLB level by playing part time. Its not that unusual. Plus, he only mentioned it for 30 games. Its not like Gamel will only play 80 games in a 50/50 platoon split.... Not many people play every game like Prince did.

 

Hart is a liability in RF vs RHP so I'm hoping that is where this going

more than anything else, you can get Hart's production vs RHP for league

minimum.

 

Hart's line against RHP last year: 272/335/479/814 and career: 268/319/473/793. If you can sign a 800 OPS free agent RF for league minimum, more power to you. You should be a MLB GM.

 

edit-clarifications

[joepepsi]

I'm guessing this means the plan for Green is AAA at least to start the year.

[monty57]

I'm guessing this means the plan for Green is AAA at least to start the year.

 

I'd like to see that, because if Green makes the roster, I don't see him getting much if any playing time, as Izturis will likely be the backup SS/2B. However, the only other options for his spot right now are Bianchi, Wheeler and Farris. It's possible they put Bianchi on the roster as the "second utility IF" who never plays, allowing for Green to play everyday in AAA, so he's ready to step in if Ramirez/Weeks gets hurt.

 

As far as backup 1B, as the roster is currently set, Hart seems like the logical choice, since Kottaras and Green are both LH. Personally, I'd still pursue Johnny Gomes and let him be the backup 1B / backup corner OF, but unless another move happens, Hart's probably the best choice. If this is used to give Gamel a day off here & there while allowing for Gomez/Aoki to get a little PT, then I'm fine with it. However, once the can of worms is opened, I could see Roenicke running with it, playing Hart at 1B on a regular basis with Gomez in CF and Morgan/Aoki in RF. At the very least, I'd guess this would be a regular "late inning defensive move."

[thumperden]

They also signed Travis Ishikawa as 1B competition. I hope he shows something positive with the bat in spring.

[Ennder]

Hart's line against RHP last year: 272/335/479/814 and career: 268/319/473/793. If you can sign a 800 OPS free agent RF for league minimum, more power to you. You should be a MLB GM.

 

Yes you can find this when you add in the below average defense and you plan on platooning. Every year some LH poor fielder signs for very little money. You pay Hart for what he does vs LH pitching, he is just good enough to keep him on the field vs RH pitching but he isn't much of a plus against them.

[CheezWizHed]

http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/...=Sortable+Player+hitting

 

Among all OF last year vs. RHB, Corey was 39th in OPS (including 7 or 8 with small sample sizes). No, I didn't check out each and everyone of their salaries. But two of them, Scott Hairston and Reed Johnson signed for just over $1M, but both had career years. And have career averages of mid to low 700 OPS against RHB. A couple others that are legit 800+ hitters (Willingham and Cuddyar) signed for pretty big money.

 

Even Nyjer Morgan didn't beat Hart against RHB last year (in OPS).

 

I'll grant you that Hart's defense isn't great, but part time, cheap OF also generally have poor offense or a poor bat. Guys that can approach 800 OPS (which is above average) and give average to good defense are generally paid very well.

 

The only chance I see of this happening is with Gindl. But its no guarantee that he will be able to post a 800+ as a rookie (I'd be more confident of that in future years). But I'd really doubt you are going to find anything for cheap that you can be confident (yeah, flukes happen) will be able to give better production than Hart.

 

Morgan could also, if you factor in defense. -edit: On second look, maybe not. Career, he is 764 against RHP. Defense may make up the difference, but that doesn't make him better.

[rluzinski]

Hart is a liability in RF vs RHP so I'm hoping that is where this going more than anything else, you can get Hart's production vs RHP for league minimum.

I realize that a career split is not a projection but it's a place to start.

Hart career vs RHP:

.268

.319

.473

.793

Your league minimum claim suggests a replacement level player (unless you were alluding to a player the Brewers already have?). Even if you consider Hart's below average defense, I don't think even a LH replacement level player would be expected to hit near that.

EDIT: Didn't see your follow up post before I posted:

"Every year some LH poor fielder signs for very little money. You pay Hart for what he does vs LH pitching, he is just good enough to keep him on the field vs RH pitching but he isn't much of a plus against them."

Give me an example of a LH batter that projects to hit around a .800 OPS against righties that was available for league minimum this year. More than a few backup lefties will do that over a few hundred AB but that doesn't mean they were projected to.

[monty57]

Hart's career numbers also include the year-and-a-half where he lost the ability to recognize a low-and-away slider, so RHP's had an easy out pitch against him. Something has clicked since then, and Hart is a much better player, and even with that dreadful 1.5 years on his resume, he's still at .793 OPS vs RHP which isn't bad.

 

Hart's not a superstar, and he's not paid like one. He is a good player, and will play a big part in this year's Brewers team. I think it'd be good for the Brewers to trade him prior to his contract expiring, whether that's mid-season this year, or next offseason, but that's because he's good enough that someone would trade for him, and we should have some decent prospects ready in RF soon, making him somewhat expendable for the Brewers.

 

As to his getting some time at 1B this season, someone is going to have to be our backup 1B, as Gamel is not going to play everyday. It would make sense for that player to bat RH (since Gamel's LH), which pretty much brings it to Hart, Braun, Ramirez, or someone yet to be acquired. Ramirez's backup could be LH Green, so it doesn't make sense to sit Gamel against a LHP only to play Green. That leaves Braun or Hart, and the MVP is not the guy you mess around with. Therefore, as the roster is currently built, I have no problem with Hart occasionally getting some PT at 1B.

[Madtown343]

I think Hart is largely negligible in this discussion. Hart is still in the lineup regardless so the choice is more between Gamel, Aoki, or a possible vet RH OF bat. This also is not thinking that Aoki will maybe be spending time in LF with Braun out.

 

So versus a tough lefty, Aoki would help the D by moving Hart out of the outfield to 1B. Hart might be an improvement over Gamel versus the lefty, but will Aoki be an upgrade over Gamel? Enough of a defensive upgrade if Gamel is the better offensive player of the two?

 

Those are the questions this makes me think of.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Someone needs to find Aoki's splits. How well he hits lefties is a key in this discussion. Because he's an obvious upgrade over Hart defensively in RF. Just would need to be able to hit lefties better than Gamel for this to make more sense.

EDIT: Found his splits through 2010. .328/.373/.438. Having 2011 in there would make a difference, but looks like he hits RHP and LHP just about equally as well.

[monty57]

I think Hart is largely negligible in this discussion. Hart is still in the lineup regardless so the choice is more between Gamel, Aoki, or a possible vet RH OF bat. This also is not thinking that Aoki will maybe be spending time in LF with Braun out.

 

So versus a tough lefty, Aoki would help the D by moving Hart out of the outfield to 1B. Hart might be an improvement over Gamel versus the lefty, but will Aoki be an upgrade over Gamel? Enough of a defensive upgrade if Gamel is the better offensive player of the two?

 

Those are the questions this makes me think of.

 

But you have to throw in the fact that Gamel will need some days off, and they might as well be against LHP. To me, it's a question of whether Roenicke will sit Gamel just enough to keep him fresh, or whether he will use the Hart-to-1B situation as a reason to sit Gamel on the bench on a regular basis.

[Ennder]

Ok league minimum is probably stretching it for any established player but guys like Ryan Ludwick is as good as Hart vs RHP and signing for 2.5M. It isn't a big deal trying to replace what he does vs RHP in the OF if you need to which was the original point. It only takes Craig Counsell money to do.

[CheezWizHed]

2011,2010,2009,2008

Hart: 814, 827, 773, 745

Ludwick: 644, 800, 787, 985

 

He was clearly better back in 2008, but not since. Plus, he will be 34 compared to Hart's 30. And Ludwick is showing the downward trend...

[logan82]

That leaves Braun or Hart, and the MVP is not the guy you mess around with. Therefore, as the roster is currently built, I have no problem with Hart occasionally getting some PT at 1B.

 

This is where I disagree. The roster as currently built has all left handed backup outfielders. Of course Gamel will need some games off but not anywhere close to 30. Maybe half that.

[TheCrew07]

Why are we suggesting rookies should only play 130 games? Where is this "needs a day off" coming from? I still firmly believe that Macha's regular benching of Escobar only made a difficult situation worse. Just because Hart sat behind a clearly inferior player in Mench doesn't justify sporadic playing time for a young player, quite the opposite. If we're talking young pitchers then yes, we should absolutely limit their innings and let them build into 200 innings at a reasonable pace, but why should position players sit?

 

To me this is opening up an unnecessary can of worms; the assumption that Gamel needs to be platooned and needs time off only opens the door for more veteran mismanagement by the manager and GM. Why don't we let him play on a regular basis before definitively claiming what he needs? He hasn't exactly been a model of health the past 3 years, if he goes on the DL or struggles for an extended period of time the team will have to do something at 1B, and I can see an occasional day off, but why should he sit for 30 games? It's completely arbitrary, especially if he's productive, why would you want to sit him down? Furthermore why on earth would we be excited about an OF of Morgan, Gomez, and Aoki offensively while Braun is suspended? That's 2 slap hitters and a free swinger who would maybe hit double digit HRs if the team was silly enough to give him enough ABs? I'm all about defense, always have been, but we need to generate some power while Braun is out of the line-up as well. Those 3 players together might have the lowest combined OF OPS in the division in addition to losing the platoon advantage of playing Gomez and Morgan against favorable pitching match-ups by playing them both everyday. I realize a Braun suspension ties the organization's hands somewhat, but why make a bad situation worse offensively?

 

I guess I'll put it this way, have we learned nothing from the Cubs whom must of us can't stand? How long did it take for them to go from veteran to old with a ton of bad contracts? I'll say 2 years only because of the denial factor, "it was a bad year, we'll be back next year", but it was more like a single season. I'm not into tearing it all apart and rebuilding from scratch, I don't understand the veteran obsession of the team and this board at times, we need young and productive players if for no other reason than to balance the payroll some.

 

Hart hasn't played 1B since 2002 (before my time on bf.net) but his stats were similar to Hunter Morris who I wouldn't call a finished product defensively by any stretch. 1B is definitely the position that requires the least mobility, but it's not exactly an easy position to play. You have to know and execute all of the IF plays, you have field bunts bare-handed, throw accurately off of 1 leg, catch short hops, be good around the bag, etc. Fielder wasn't a bad athlete for his size but he was pretty poor defender at 1B on the whole, I think 1B gets a bad rap given the relative importance of the position, just about every IF play will finish there. The skill set requirement is just different at 1B than the rest of the IF positions, and those skills are hard to quantify mathematically when no one is really keep track of scoops and such. Gamel has all of the tools to be an excellent 3B, he just never reigned in his throwing issues, he could be a difference maker at 1B. Hart was a horrible 3B in every way, while he might be a decent stop gap for a game or 2 here and there at 1B, he hasn't played the position in 9 years and I'd rather leave well enough alone.

 

 

Everything TH has written about Gamel may be true, and Mat may very well end up needing a platoon partner, but this whole Gamel situation rubs me the wrong way for quite a few reasons.

[CheezWizHed]

Why are we suggesting rookies should only play 130 games?

 

I'm not sure "should" is the right word, but "typically" might be. Not just for rest, but injuries also. I have no idea how to check on who many games the average starter plays, but 130 is around Hart's average. Weeks is below that (injuries obviously). Fielder, Braun and McGehee have been over that consistently.

 

I wouldn't put so much stock into "130". DM probably picked a nice round number (30 games) as an estimate of how many times they would need a backup 1B for Gamel.

[fondybrewfan]

I guess I don't care who plays against tough lefties at 1B. Just get the best players on the field. If that mean Hart plays that fine by me; I just hope they at least give Gamel a chance against LH and not just assume that he will suck.

[monty57]

That leaves Braun or Hart, and the MVP is not the guy you mess around with. Therefore, as the roster is currently built, I have no problem with Hart occasionally getting some PT at 1B.

 

This is where I disagree. The roster as currently built has all left handed backup outfielders. Of course Gamel will need some games off but not anywhere close to 30. Maybe half that.

 

C'mon now, you nitpicked my post. I've mentioned several times that I don't want Roenicke to use this as an opportunity to sit Gamel too often, but when Gamel sits, someone has to play 1B. With Aoki now signed, we have five talented OF, so it makes sense that one of our OF play 1B when Gamel gets a day off.

 

Here is a quote from Melvin:

 

"Probably not on a regular basis, but [Hart] could fill in a few games here and there," Melvin said. "He played [first] in the Minor Leagues. I don't necessarily consider it being where he's playing there a lot, but if Corey feels comfortable doing it, it's something we would take a look at in Spring Training. I want to make sure Corey feels comfortable about doing it, too, because if he doesn't, I'm not going to force the issue on him."

 

I'm perfectly fine with Hart getting "a few games here & there" at 1B. I am worried that Roenicke will decide that he has to pull Gamel every game in the 6th or 7th inning "for defensive reasons," or that he decides to sit Gamel 2-3 days a week, but that doesn't sound like Melvin's plan. If that does happen, I'll be upset. Either way, I don't see Hart getting any time at 1B for the first 50 games of the season if Braun is suspended. That will give us some time to see how Aoki and Gamel are doing with regular PT against RHP & LHP. By then, a lot can happen.

[logan82]

C'mon now, you nitpicked my post.

 

Sorry about that.

[dadofandrew]

Why are we suggesting rookies should only play 130 games? Where is this "needs a day off" coming from? I still firmly believe that Macha's regular benching of Escobar only made a difficult situation worse. Just because Hart sat behind a clearly inferior player in Mench doesn't justify sporadic playing time for a young player, quite the opposite. If we're talking young pitchers then yes, we should absolutely limit their innings and let them build into 200 innings at a reasonable pace, but why should position players sit?

Escobar played in 145 games and got 598 PA's while struggling to keep his OPS over 600. Far from sporadic to say the least, he played 6 games a week. What's funny is, Macha may not have been Mr. Friendly, but he ran the team almost identically to Roenicke. Give him Marcum and Greinke, he wins just as much, despite laughable attempts to paint him as odd. He did a fine job keeping mediocre, injury plagued teams close to .500.

[Ennder]

A lot of managers prefer to give rookies extra days off, I tend to agree with them. I don't know if 130 is the 'magic' number but I think something like 135-145 is probably pretty appropriate. That is still more games than they are used to playing in a season and you want to keep them fresh and protect them against bad matchups when you can.

[CheezWizHed]

One thing to keep in mind is that the toughest jump is from the minors to the majors. Unless you are a can't miss rookie (Braun, Fielder), you generally get broken into the league a little slower. Not facing all the tough matchups, given a few extra days off. Tough call since some players do better when they can work through slumps, while others need a bit of rest to refresh their approach.

 

To support what Ennder just wrote, Gamel generally played around 130 games from A-ball up.

[TheCrew07]

First off, how does any position player play more than 130 games in the minor leagues when that's how long the seasons are? What's another month once they are used to the grind? In fact the travel schedule is actually better in MLB than it is in the minors.

 

Second, the team has already wasted a full year of Mat's service time sitting him on the bench and paying him to rehab, even if it made sense there isn't time to break him in slowly.

 

Third, most position players don't play a full MLB season their first year because they come up in late June to avoid Super 2 status, they do however play a full season from April through October. We've broken in every position player with the exception of Hart this way.

 

Finally, I see people justifying a move that they like for any number of reasons from Hart is a bad RF to Gamel is unproven instead of being objective about the situation. If Mat performs, there's absolutely no reason to sit him. If he hits well against lefties there is no reason to sit him. In fact I would argue there is very little reason to sit him or any first time everyday player at all. I don't recall Melvin talking about a backup plan for any other young player who's come along? Sitting a player down can be a positive, however it can also be tremendously negative depending on the circumstance and the coaching that goes with it. This is all pretty basic sports psychology, but the most important aspect in sports is confidence, and if the organization and coaching staff aren't doing everything they can to instill and build confidence in their players, especially the inexperienced players, then they are doing the player an incredible disservice. Yes production matters but so does the learning curve and how can anyone say definitively in January what Gamel is going to need in June when he's never been given an everyday opportunity?

 

Melvin's comments about Gamel read like he's grudgingly giving him a shot just because he's out of options, not because Mat has earned the opportunity to play. In the end I guess I don't care why he's getting a shot, I just hope he makes the most out of it.

 

I've been a Gamel supporter for a very long time, maybe I'm even a Gamel apologist. I've just grown weary of the "lets sign random veterans A, B, and C to fill holes X, Y, and Z), the organization will not move forward if that tact is continually taken. In past years I've followed the minors very closely (though I didn't in 2011), I've coached varsity football for a long time, I have to break in my own inexperienced players every single year, I go to clinics, I read something meaningful which directly relates to athletic development almost everyday. I'm not coming from a place where I'm guessing about what a player will need, I'm coming from experience saying it's impossible to predict what a player will need because every young man takes their own path. There is no 10 step procedure to guarantee success, it's process that you need to feel your way through with every single player.

 

Mat may fail, prospects will fail, just like FA acquisitions will fail, it's a part of sports, players flame out. However, the Brewers need some young players to be given a chance and actually succeed so we can start to balance the payroll. The majority wanted our young prospects to play when we stunk in 2004, 2005, and 2006 (there was a minority that wanted to trade Fielder, Weeks, etc for proven veterans, I don't think we'll ever get away from that concept) but since the team has started winning the opposite is true. There is a very fine line between being veteran and simply being old and every year the Brewers get older and more expensive, this is not a good trend for the organization. Certainly it will be spun in a positive light, the Brewers exceeded $100 mil in payroll, blah, blah, blah... but the truth is that sports are a young man's game and on average once you get past a player's peak you're paying him for what he's done rather than what he's going to do. Just because Wolf and Cameron performed well doesn't excuse or justify away any of the bad money spent on the FAs Melvin has acquired, it's not a recipe for success, not for Milwaukee.

 

Hart shouldn't be in the organization's long term plans, it makes no sense to move him to 1B now, it's purely a reactionary idea based entirely on the idea that a young player will fail. If they want to move a guy, it should be Braun who struggles with nagging injuries, is signed forever, and who's physical skills will begin to decline as he ages. Maybe they would be able to save Braun a catastrophic injury or 2 over the course of his career by moving him out of the OF. Braun wasn't much better in the IF than Hart was, but at least it's a move to maximize a player's long term value.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just because Wolf and Cameron performed well doesn't excuse or justify away any of the bad money spent on the FAs Melvin has acquired, it's not a recipe for success, not for Milwaukee.

 

Well then they weren't 'bad money' contracts, especially since neither guy was blocking anyone.

[Roderick]

If I were Mat, though, I'd feel pretty dissed.

You are talking about a guy that hasn't been a regular in the majors (or earned anything) as being dissed if the Brewers have a backup plan? I sure hope Gamel is more mature than you give him credit for.