Carlos Zambrano (and cash) to Marlins for Chris Volstad

[brettac1]

http://www.mlbtraderumors...ire-carlos-zambrano.html

 

Cubs will reportedly pay $15.5 million of Big Z's salary this year. Apparently they really wanted to dump him.

[craigharmann]

The more fun choice for us fans would have been to ship him to the Cards. Now THAT implosion would have been fun to see!

[RockCoCougars]

I like this deal for the Marlins based on risk/reward. As it's a contract year for Zambrano, you have to think that he will at least put forth an effort to behave and pitch well. If not, they are only out $3 million.

[jjfanec]

So they are paying all but 3 million and getting a number 5 starter back in return? Volstad doesnt bring much to the table. Gives up a lot of hits/walks and doesnt really strike people out.

[brettac1]

I think it might be a case of the Cubs saying "Yes, we are going to suck, but at least we won't make you watch a guy you hate" to the fans.

[jjfanec]

I think it might be a case of the Cubs saying "Yes, we are going to suck, but at least we won't make you watch a guy you hate" to the fans.

But it is a move where you save no money because of what Volstad is projected to get in FA and Zambrano is obviously the better pitcher. Who thought Arizona was going to be any good last year? Zambrano makes them better than Volstad. They must just want their type of guys in the clubhouse or they see something in Volstad his numbers done indicate

[hawing]

Part of me would like to see Z thrown into a rage by the Marlins' ridiculous new home run "feature."

[sveumrules]

I think the return is alright considering Zambrano would only waive his no trade to go to Miami. Can't really maximize your return when you'll do anything to be rid of the guy and you're only dealing with one team.

[RedFlash2]

5th starter for 5th trade, imo. Nothing more/nothing less. Marlins want to compete and Z gives them that, the Cubs wanted the higher upside pitcher.

[Ennder]

I'd rather just start Volstad to be honest, you would have to pay me to take Zambrano off the Cubs hands. This is the kind of thing that scared me when the Cubs got the new GM, he immediately realized that Zambrano is dead weight and the team is better off without him even if they have to eat his contract and get nothing back in return and he managed to actually get something back.

[RobertR]

It's clear that the Cubs had no leverage here. Zambrano is hellishly overpaid and a distraction in the clubhouse, but when you combine his bat and pitching he still has value on the field. It's clear that the Marlins want to contend this year in their new stadium and there's certainly more upside with Zambrano than Volstad. The Cubs replaced Zambrano's innings which will likely make 2012 semi-tolerable instead of a disaster, but I don't think they'll look back on this as anymore than appeasing the fanbase in the long run.

 

Robert

[owbc]

I think it was clear last year that Zambrano had pitched his last game with the Cubs. His interactions with Guillen should make for some interesting news.

 

I wonder if the Marlins will become a popular destination for star Latin-American players with their new ballpark and the Guillen hire. They didn't have enough money to make the top offer to Pujols, but he appeared willing to go there if the price was right.

[Ennder]

there's certainly more upside with Zambrano than Volstad

 

Not sure I agree with this. Volstad has better peripherals over the past 3 years, has been healthier and is younger. Volstad has pitched in the better park but with a much worse defense behind him so I think skill wise they are probably a wash at this point only with Volstad being cheaper and younger. The only thing Zambrano really has going for him is the bat and I'm not sure a pitcher gets up to the plate enough for this to offset the advantages Volstad has.

[CheezWizHed]

Seems like a win-win scenario. Zambrano wasn't going to pitch for the Cubs anymore and they got a serviceable SP in return. Although, if he gave up 1 HR per 8 IP in Florida, that could blow up in Wrigley...

 

Zambrano is clearly the better pitcher (at least this year). And players like him (Randy Moss, Latrell Sprewell) tend to do well in the first year with a new team. And the Marlins are obviously pushing the chips into the center of the table this year...

[Ennder]

If you want to make a statement like 'clearly the better pitcher' you have to back it up with something. Zambrano was pretty terrible last year. His K/9 has gone down, his GB% has gone down and his HR/FB has gone up. His velocity is down. His contact rates against are way up (his out of zone contact rate is up by 20%!). He clearly isn't making hitters make weak contact the way he used to which is what he has survived on more than anything in his career. If you gave the Brewers Zambrano for free I would make him a RP and depth at SP at this point, he just isn't very good anymore.

[CheezWizHed]

If you look at last year alone, both pitchers are remarkably similar. Zambrano had more walks, Volstad gave up more hits. Their WHIP, ERA, ERA+, K/9, HR/9 were almost identical.

 

Main difference is that it was Zambrano's worst year since he debuted at age 20. First full year over a 4.00 ERA. If he was 32-34, I might think this was an age-related slip, but he was only 30, so I would bet he will bounce back. Especially with a new club and pitching in the "honeymoon" period.

 

Volstad has put up 4 seasons that were very similar to what he did last year. Yes, he is young and could/should improve, but right now, his improvement has been pretty flat.

 

I would also point out that while Zambrano put up half of his numbers in Wrigley (where a pop-fly can become a HR). Volstad pitched half of them in Florida, which is much more pitcher friendly.

 

If I'm going to bet on who will be better this year, I'd have 10-1 odds on Zambrano.

 

If I'm rebuilding for the future, I'll take Volstad and three more years of control.

[JohnBriggs12]

If you want to make a statement like 'clearly the better pitcher' you have to back it up with something. Zambrano was pretty terrible last year. His K/9 has gone down, his GB% has gone down and his HR/FB has gone up. His velocity is down. His contact rates against are way up (his out of zone contact rate is up by 20%!). He clearly isn't making hitters make weak contact the way he used to which is what he has survived on more than anything in his career. If you gave the Brewers Zambrano for free I would make him a RP and depth at SP at this point, he just isn't very good anymore.

Absolutely right Ennder. Zambrano's nowhere near the pitcher he was in 06-07. Last year, when he was actually pitching, his numbers were very similar to Volstad's. His WHIP's the last 2 seasons are in the category of a number 5 starter, in the 1.45 range. He's always a threat to go nuts and face another suspension too.

 

So instead of paying $18.5 million for Zambrano to be mediocre with the risk of another blowup, the Cubs are going to pay something like $16.5 million (what they are paying Big Z and Volstad combined) for a similar pitcher who's still young enough to improve. This was a clever move by the Cubs.

 

As for the park difference, Volstad's ground ball ratio is better than average. He won't be great but he'll do okay in Wrigley.

[brettac1]

Now, if Theo could only find someone dumb enough to take Soriano off his hands, this would be a great offseason for them.

[bjkrautk]

17 posts, and I don't see a single reference to T-Plush?

 

Volstad is a back-of-the rotation guy, but he's a decent back of the rotation starter (I'm seeing 14 QS in 29 starts). I'd be worried about the HR totals playing in Wrigley, but he's young....and has more seasons of sub-5 ERA than over.

 

Compared to the guy he's replacing, who will either be great or horrible seemingly at his own whims, I think this is a decent move for the Cubs.

[RobertR]

If you want to make a statement like 'clearly the better pitcher' you have to back it up with something. Zambrano was pretty terrible last year. His K/9 has gone down, his GB% has gone down and his HR/FB has gone up. His velocity is down. His contact rates against are way up (his out of zone contact rate is up by 20%!). He clearly isn't making hitters make weak contact the way he used to which is what he has survived on more than anything in his career. If you gave the Brewers Zambrano for free I would make him a RP and depth at SP at this point, he just isn't very good anymore.

Why are we only looking at one year's worth of data? Maybe it's a trend. Maybe it's an off year. Clearly Zambrano isn't the player he was at his peak, but by simple measures such as ERA+, Zambrano's been clearly more valuable than Volstad over the last 4 years, which comprise Volstad's career. That's without including Zambrano's bat. And it's not like Zambrano's terribly old. If there weren't concerns, justified, about his attitude, I bet there would be quite a few people touting Zambrano as a bounceback candidate simply by regression to the mean of his three year average.

 

I'll admit that my choice might be neither, as I'm pretty convinced that there's no real upside to Volstad. He's possibly an o.k. option at the back end of your rotation, but he's only really tolerable so long as he's cheap and he may be a bad fit for Wrigley.

 

For 2012, I think there's plenty of argument that Zambrano has a higher upside. At least on the field.

 

Robert

[TooLiveBrew]

you would have to pay me to take Zambrano off the Cubs hands.

 

They did pay them. $15.5M.

[pingman]

the Marlins clubhouse will be a Zoo with Ozzie, Zambrano & Ramirez...... can't wait for the dysfunctional bunch to have their first 5-game losing streak

[danzig6767]

the Marlins clubhouse will be a Zoo with Ozzie, Zambrano & Ramirez...... can't wait for the dysfunctional bunch to have their first 5-game losing streak

Zambrano obviously has had his share of blowups and thus it's clear why

Theo moved him, but for an extremely emotional guy like him, the mix of

him struggling last year, the team being dreadful, and Cubs fans

getting on his case lead to him being a powder keg just waiting to

explode.

 

I wouldn't just assume though that Zambrano will be the

same character problem for the Marlins this year. First of all, just

getting out of Chicago should be a refreshing change on scenery for him.

Besides that, the Marlins have a chance to be a pretty good team and

also there will be the typical excitement of a first year in a new

ballpark.

 

Of course how he pitches next year will likely be a

significant factor as to whether Zambrano can keep his emotions in

check. If he bounces back and is at least solid in the 4.00 ERA range

while the team plays well, he could avoid blowups.

 

I see

Ramirez being a bigger chance to cause problems and potentially clash

with Ozzie. As a manager, Ozzie is not only outspoken, he clearly has

shown to have more issues with any players who don't consistently play

really hard, something Ramirez has been accused of not always doing. So

if say Ramirez has some struggles at the plate and this leads him to not

run out grounders or other forms of non-hustle, odds are high that

Ozzie will call Hanley out. That pairing easily could become combustible, but Zambrano personality wise is more like Ozzie.

[CheezWizHed]

Plus moving Ramirez to 3B might not sit 100% with him also.