Morgan vs Gomez in CF

[Baldkin]

Putting this here, so as not to further clog the lineup thread:

chickinbrickin wrote:

If you watched Morgan all year you would know that he is not a good

defensive player. My playoff example was used to reply to the prior OPs

comment that Gomez defense is less than 10 runs better than Morgans over

the course of a year. It was about 8 runs better in the postseason; so

one can only imagine what it would be over the course of a year.

 

Just

because I can't put a concrete number on what Gomez's defense will

bring doesn't mean I don't know it is a positive. So since you can't

quanitfy the exact number of runs it will cost the Brewers having Braun

suspended for 50 games does that mean you can't advocate that the lineup

is better with him in it?

 

Is Morgans bat really worth 20 more

runs than Gomez over the course of 200 ABs? I doubt it. I still think

Gomez defense is worth more runs than (Gomez's bat against RHP -Morgans

bat against RHP). Even if Morgan bats over 80 points higher than Gomez

over 200 ABs against RHP it is only an extra 16 hits.

Morgan was worth 10 full runs over 200 AB compared to Gomez last year, according to Runs Created.

So, even IF we account for every extra play that Gomez makes over Morgan

to be a double, that means in those 50 games, Gomez would have to make

13 plays that Morgan wouldn't. Doesn't sound like a lot? Considering the average CF makes about

2.2 putouts per game, you're talking about a 10% increase. If we consider half singles and half doubles, then you're talking about a 15% increase.

[brewtank34]

I highly doubt Morgan will be traded. He's too marketable for The Brewers to trade him. Seeing that Aoki's left handed, there may be a chance that Morgan could be traded, but I just don't see why the Brewers would ditch the marketability that T-Plush brings.

 

Sounds like DM is going to be moving forward with the straight platoon like last season which is completely fine by me as your maximizing both offensive skill sets.

 

If Aoki pans out, there's a possibility of Hart being traded, but I doubt that DM wants to rid himself of affordable offense with Hart.

[Mike]

If Braun is suspended, I do not see how Hart would be dealt as few have suggested. If Corey were traded that would leave us with an OF of (assuming 50 games and Aoki signed) Aoki, Morgan, Gomez, Schafer. None of these four (4) should be in a corner OF spot because of their lack of power. That would leave only Aramis and Rickie with pop in the lineup. In addition, the argument over Aoki being offered a contract is probably not capable of being handicapped at this point. The club has admitted they have no scouts in Japan and are going off "reports". Depending on the money Aoki is expecting, I just can't see pulling that trigger after seeing a guy in two (2) days of workouts in Maryvale.

So, if I were DM I definitely would not trade Corey and I probably would not sign Aoki. He would be a pretty expensive 50 game rental considering Schafer and Gindl are waiting in the wings and deserve a shot soon. Which leaves me with what to do with the four OF's mentioned above three of which hit LF, four if you count Gindl.

 

Even though Gomez has the most power, arm strength and overall CF defense, I just can't see doing any better than his career .240+ avg suggests (half of you agree). He also is the only RH in this group, so perhaps we are stuck with him. Now it comes down to staying with the platoon of Morgan/Gomez or allowing Schafer a shot. Gindl is still young at 23 and will probably go to AAA. I can see an OF of Morgan in LF, Morgan/Gomez in CF, Hart in RF and Schafer on the bench. When Ryan returns, you send Schafer to AAA unless he performs. Otherwise you trade Morgan for many of the reasons suggested and get a prospect, but as a poster mentioned he did only garner Cutter. Very difficult decisions to make. Perhaps one of these LH OF's need to be traded straight up for another RH OF?

[DHonks]

Morgan is likely among the top 5-6 Centerfielders in baseball in terms of defense. Gomez just happens to be in the top 3. But the significant upgrade of Morgan over Gomez in terms of defense--at least against righties--means Morgan should get the bulk of the playing time (ie, a platoon). When Gomez has a career year because he is being used properly, we can trade him and let some other team regret the trade.

[Oldcity]

I don't think Gomez is going to break out or anything, but I still think he's quite valuable as he is right now. Rather than just a straight platoon, since that gives Morgan quite a bit more time than Gomez, I'd play Gomez against an occasional righty--so the pt is close to 50/50. Gomez's defense is that valuable that I'm fine with crappy offense on occasion.

 

I'd be fine trading or keeping Morgan. If his value is high enough for a good return, great, and go with Schafer in that role. Otherwise just stick with what worked well last season.

[monty57]

Morgan was only worth Cutter Dykstra nine months ago. I seriously doubt that he would bring that much more now.

 

He had worn out his welcome and was being given away nine months ago. Since then, he has played well and was put in the national spotlight as a positive influence on the Brewers.

 

I'm not sure why you would mess with a platoon that seemed to work pretty well last year just to add a B-level prospect.

 

Because we potentially tripped and fell into a better option with Aoki. I'm fine keeping Morgan / Gomez as a platoon. However, if we sign Aoki and he's a better option than Morgan, we should see what the market is for Morgan while his value is high. I don't think Aoki will sign as a bench player, so if we get him, once Braun returns Morgan will either sit the bench or get traded. If Morgan ends up sitting as our 5th OF this season, we'll have to pay him nearly $2MM, and his trade value will drop to zero by the end of the season, so I'd rather try to trade him, if and only if all the other variables fall into place.

 

As for "B-level prospect," as I said earlier: If Morgan is "plenty cheap," and is a sound MLB player who we could pencil in for 120+ starts, batting #1 or 2 for a team with World Series hopes, then why would he have no trade value?

[YoungGeezy]

Gomez is where he is today because the Mets, Twins, and Brewers when he first got here epically failed in his development. I think he will be a late blommer and could get to his performance to match his elite tools. It is hard when you are 20 (20-24) and teams call you up, play you, and when you struggle they do not do the reasonable thing of sending you down to work out issues but sit you on the bench to watch the game. How do you develop not getting to play? Twins did the most damage, Mets just pushed him way to fast because of his tools not readiness, and Brewers gave him a short lease and sat him down without going down to work out issues.

 

We know what he have in Plush, he has reached his ceiling, Gomez will be 26 and has yet to scratched the surface. The only way to get him there is to play him. Not in a platoon where he gets 2-3 starts a week. Even if his bat fails and hits .220/.290/.600 or something his defensive will make up for much of his flaws at the plate. People are willing to have SS who can't hit but play elite Defense, I feel the same for CF. People try to compare Plush and Gomez in the field and say they are close, well if you think that you have never watched a game. Morgan is an average or slightly above average defender. He has nice range, pretty good routes, an okay arm, and will make plays he should make, maybe a few more than the next guy. Gomez has incredible range, incredible routes, a very good arm, and is really just a gem out there. He makes Harts and Brauns job very easy. They know if it is in between Gomez will get it.

 

I have to agree with Briggs on everything he wrote. In no way should Carlos ever try to be a slap hitter like Morgan. Morgan does it because he has to. He would not be here if he tried to go up there and drive the ball because it is not his game. Gomez has a ton of power. To try to be a slap hitter is a joke. If Carlos does what he did in ST where he was swinging level and getting on top of the ball, he will be an explosive bat in our lineup. Walks need and pitch selection both need to improve along with that because we need his speed on the bases.

 

I'd take Gomez

[WV Brew]

Just for comparison let's look at Morgan in the minors vs. Logan Schafer.

 

NM: .293/.370/.364/.734

LS: .301/.363/.427/.790

 

At A+: NM: .292/.357/.356/.713

LS: .306/.366/.428/.795

 

AA NM: .306/.359/.393/.751

LS: .292/.370/.382/.752

 

At AAA, Schafer destroys Morgan but that's a small sample so I'll ignore it. The point is that Logan Schafer compares favorably to Nyjer Morgan at each level, particularly the higher levels, is younger and has more power.

 

One of the places I thought they could replace some of Prince's power was by this substitution. I don't expect it to happen though. Melvin is too wedded to the idea that you must have veterans. I'm afraid at some point it will really come back to bite this team.

[TooLiveBrew]

Honestly at this point I don't mind having Schafer as depth. The real contending teams (imo) have depth all across the roster, and Schafer as a 5th (or even 6th) OF is a great situation for the Brewers to be in imo.

 

Plus, with the service time/veterans-r-us concerns, Schafer hasn't spent a full year at AAA yet, so it's totally palatable to ask him to start there in 2012. I have zero problem with the outfield as currently constructed... and I do mean that including Aoki or not.

[RockCoCougars]

In my view, Schafer needs to be at AAA in 2012. His upside basically seems about the same as what they are getting from Morgan right now, but with not even a full year of AAA under his belt, that's far from a given. At the same time, it's not like Morgan is breaking the bank or anything. As for Gomez, he is an ideal 5th outfielder if anything else. You won't find a better defensive replacement/pinch runner than him. Obviously, if Aoki joins the team, it seems on paper at least that you will have some duplicitous skill sets.... I want to see him play first before I hand him anything though.

[TheCrew07]

AAA is not a developmental playground for prospects, it's a storage space for MLB depth. Once a hitter adjusts to the junkballers who know how to pitch at that level there is nothing more to be gained unless you are working on a positional switch. For most part our hitters will face better arms in Southern League than they will in the PCL.

 

I'm all for 1 level of the minors at a time until AAA, it's not a proving ground of any kind. 3 years ago Nelson Cruz was just another AAAA player, some guy who dominated AAA but couldn't hit big league pitching. Then all of sudden he finally hit well in a short window, got a greater opportunity to play, and he's been an excellent MLB hitter. He's not a late bloomer, he's just a guy who never got more 330 PAs in any season, he hadn't hit well in 470 PAs and was written off, but that's not even full season of PAs.

 

People are doing the same with Gamel and he's gotten even less opportunity, a whopping 194 ABs over 4 years. Schafer is going to be 25, Gamel is going to be 26, our older players in the minor leagues don't need further seasoning, they need opportunity in MLB and the room to fail and grow from it.

 

I'm alright with Schafer revisting AAA given the status of the MLB outfield, but not because he needs more seasoning, because I like having depth. As I said previously if a really good deal for Morgan comes along you take it and go with Schafer as the other half of the platoon.

 

As for the Gomez benching argument. I could get behind that if he was only getting like 150 PAs per year and teams were giving up on him after April every season. However he's accumulated 1678 PAs, he's had plenty of opportunity to grow as a player, but he's basically been a flatline from year to year. I'm not sure what he'd gain from AAA other than confidence, but he doesn't seem to lack confidence, he doesn't carry himself the same way Escobar was in 2010 for example. Maybe he just puts on a good show but I've never thought confidence was his problem. I don't put much weight in the ST thing at all, I don't even listen to ST games so I have no context for those ABs.

[jhart05]

Give me, and the pitching staff, Carlos Gomez in CF every day. At least 140 full games.

 

I want the defense out there, especially on this team.

 

If they already had a decent defense without him, then I would probably think different.

[joepepsi]

I expect the infield defense will be noticeably better. The top 3 starters are above average strikeout pitchers. While Gomez is indeed a tremendous center fielder, Morgan is no slouch out there. The difference between an average-above average outfielder and a great one doesn't make much difference over the course of a season.

[chickinbrickin]

Trade Morgan, and play Gomez in CF with a 70-30 platoon with Schafer. Gomez only sitting against top tier RHP. I do realize he most likely will not break out and I do not expect that, but I am a huge fan of his defense and him batting in the 8th spot as a "spark plug."

 

If Braun is suspended and the team struggles out of the gate Morgan’s antics are going to get really old really fast. It started to become annoying last year when they were playing great. I can just see the clubhouse getting out of control with no leadership there and a pushover manager in RRR.

 

I hope it doesn't happen, but I just see Morgan going Morgan a few months into the season and everyone regretting he wasn't traded when he should have been. Not attitude related, but I had the same feeling about Casey this past offseason. A smart GM moves a filler guy after a career year, and doesn't hold hoping the feat is duplicated. Sell high right?

[mothershipconnection]

I highly doubt Morgan will be traded. He's too marketable for The Brewers to trade him. Seeing that Aoki's left handed, there may be a chance that Morgan could be traded, but I just don't see why the Brewers would ditch the marketability that T-Plush brings.

 

Exactly what I was thinking as I read through the thread. Plush sold tons of T-Shirts and the team seems pretty giddy about their attendance numbers. Morgan's the type of "fan favorite" who sticks around as long as he's cheap and productive. The return you'd get on trading those types is unlikely to be enough to make up for the anger of the casual fan who just jumped on the bandwagon and started throwing cash at merchandise and tickets.

 

To us nerds, it seems perfectly reasonable to trade him if you get a decent return, because Schafer needs to get a shot eventually, but the masses tend to be nowhere near as objective about players. Just look at All-Star voting.

[BREWCREW5]

Gomez is where he is today because the Mets, Twins, and Brewers when he first got here epically failed in his development.

No. Sometimes the player needs to listen to what he is told and make every effort to put that plan into action. Gomez, until recently, was trying to hit home runs.

[MNBrew]

Gomez is where he is today because the Mets, Twins, and Brewers when he first got here epically failed in his development.

No. Sometimes the player needs to listen to what he is told and make every effort to put that plan into action. Gomez, until recently, was trying to hit home runs.

You're both right.

 

- The Mets brought Gomez up to the bigs when he needed to be honing his game in the minors. The Twins felt at least some pressure to play him everyday because he was the biggest talent in the return they got for repeat Cy Young winner Johan Santana. The Brewers, well, I'm not totally sure how they blew it, but they're by far the least of the offenders in this equation.

- However, Gomez is at least equally guilty if not more so because he's insisted on the same knuckleheaded approach at the plate until the 2nd half of 2011, when he finally heeded Dale Sveum's teachings (just put a good swing on the ball & drive it, and DON'T swing for the fences) and had some at least limited success with the results.

 

With Gomez, talent has NEVER been the issue, only his head (in other words, being willing to make the adjustments necessary to be a successful hitter in the bigs). Until recently, any willingness essentially only proved to be temporary.

[endaround]

Gomez's entire offensive value at the plate come from swinging for the fences (on the bases is a different issue). He doesn't have the plate discipline to be a full time starter.

[Ennder]

Gomez's entire offensive value at the plate come from swinging for the fences (on the bases is a different issue). He doesn't have the plate discipline to be a full time starter.

This is true, but it is also true that if he had spent the proper amount of time in the minor leagues he probably would have developed at least some plate discipline. I think it is probably too late at this point but he is the classic case of the player who was set up to fail in the majors. If you could turn back time and give him 2 more full years in the minors I bet his major league stats look a whole lot better.