User Driven Power 50 (Dec 2011) - Results in! See Post #31

[TooLiveBrew]

I wanted to give this thread a bump to see if people would want to put together another user-driven P50 after the first month or maybe two of the season. I know I'd be in.

[TheCrew07]

I'd be down for an early June list

[bork]

For fun, I took a weighted average of 10 online prospect rankings (20 pts for each 1st place vote, 19 for 2nd, etc). Lists varied from 10-20 prospects. Peralta got 8 first place votes, Thornburg 1, and Jungmann 1.

 

1 Wily Peralta

2 Taylor Jungmann

3 Jed Bradley

4 Tyler Thornburg

5 Scooter Gennett

6 Taylor Green

7 Logan Schafer

8 Cody Scarpetta

9 Jorge Lopez

9 Jimmie Nelson

11 Caleb Gindl

12 Michael Fiers

13 David Goforth

14 Santo Manzanillo

15 Hunter Morris

16 Orlando Arcia

17 Kentrail Davis

18 D'Vontrey Richardson

19 Khris Davis

20 Nick Ramirez

20 Eric Farris

22 Yadiel Rivera

23 Nick Bucci

24 Amaury Rivas

24 Michael Reed

24 Brock Kjeldgaard

27 Drew Gagnon

27 Austin Ross

29 Kyle Heckathorn

30 Mark Rogers

31 Daniel Meadows

[Tedaldtada]

For fun, I took a weighted average of 10 online prospect rankings (20 pts for each 1st place vote, 19 for 2nd, etc). Lists varied from 10-20 prospects. Peralta got 8 first place votes, Thornburg 1, and Jungmann 1.

 

1 Wily Peralta

2 Taylor Jungmann

3 Jed Bradley

4 Tyler Thornburg

5 Scooter Gennett

6 Taylor Green

7 Logan Schafer

8 Cody Scarpetta

9 Jorge Lopez

9 Jimmie Nelson

11 Caleb Gindl

12 Michael Fiers

13 David Goforth

14 Santo Manzanillo

15 Hunter Morris

16 Orlando Arcia

17 Kentrail Davis

18 D'Vontrey Richardson

19 Khris Davis

20 Nick Ramirez

20 Eric Farris

22 Yadiel Rivera

23 Nick Bucci

24 Amaury Rivas

24 Michael Reed

24 Brock Kjeldgaard

27 Drew Gagnon

27 Austin Ross

29 Kyle Heckathorn

30 Mark Rogers

31 Daniel Meadows

 

Looks about right. I would move up Nelson, Goforth, Arcia, Reed, and Gagnon. I would also add Ozuna and McFarland. After the draft and early season player progression, there is no way this system is bottom 10.

[jjfanec]

If we can add some impact bats in the draft I think our system will make a huge jump in the rankings. Our pitching is gaining respect. Peralta got some high rankings in the off-season. Jungmann and Bradley are well respected. Thornburg is starting to get some love. They had a little blurb about him over at BA. Nelson will start to get more attention if he keeps this up. In my mind we could have 5 top 100 pitchers by the end of the year with other guys like Lopez, Bucci, Golforth, Scarpetta and Fiers who could make a jump (but not to top 100 range).

 

Our bats have some interesting players like Kentrail, Scooter, and Morris (just learn how to take a pitch). They also have some guys in AAA who look like they could be solid MLB players like Green, Schafer, and Gindl. If we could land impact bats with two of the first round picks our system would look really good rolling into next year. Not many of the guys are going to be called up this year and thus lose their prospect status so I think we could make a big jump in the rankings

[TooLiveBrew]

Nicely done, bork. At this point I think the main change I'd have on my own list is Thornburg at #2.

 

And I agree completely on adding bats, jjfanec. If the bats are there at their picks this year, I'd love to see the Brewers go offense-heavy.

[JohnBriggs12]

His hot start aside, Sean Halton has needed more respect than he's gotten. He's hit at every level he's been at in the Brewer system. He's physically imposing. He's reached AAA before his 25th birthday. He hasn't hit a lot of HR, but he hasn't struck out all that much either and last year cracked 39 doubles.

 

You want a good comparison? Check out Mike Morse aka "the Beast" of the Nats. Similar in size to Halton, he never had big time HR totals in the minors either. In fact a case could be made that at similar ages, Halton's had better numbers than Morse.

[Tedaldtada]

His hot start aside, Sean Halton has needed more respect than he's gotten. He's hit at every level he's been at in the Brewer system. He's physically imposing. He's reached AAA before his 25th birthday. He hasn't hit a lot of HR, but he hasn't struck out all that much either and last year cracked 39 doubles.

 

You want a good comparison? Check out Mike Morse aka "the Beast" of the Nats. Similar in size to Halton, he never had big time HR totals in the minors either. In fact a case could be made that at similar ages, Halton's had better numbers than Morse.

 

I have to agree that Halton belongs in the top-30. Power and patience are what has held him back, but he is showing improvement, no doubt.

[CheezWizHed]

Now that I have the spreadsheet setup, doing a user-driven P50 isn't a problem. Its all cut-n-paste now.

 

And I agree that June 1 would be a good time to start.

[tstads20]

His hot start aside, Sean Halton has needed more respect than he's gotten. He's hit at every level he's been at in the Brewer system. He's physically imposing. He's reached AAA before his 25th birthday. He hasn't hit a lot of HR, but he hasn't struck out all that much either and last year cracked 39 doubles.

 

You want a good comparison? Check out Mike Morse aka "the Beast" of the Nats. Similar in size to Halton, he never had big time HR totals in the minors either. In fact a case could be made that at similar ages, Halton's had better numbers than Morse.

 

I have to agree that Halton belongs in the top-30. Power and patience are what has held him back, but he is showing improvement, no doubt.

 

I don't know how good his glove is, but he kind of sounds like Overbay lite to me. Of course, Big O can really pick it at 1B, which is part of what made him valuable. That and he's a doubles CHAMP.

[Raw Biz]

For example, go look back at the 2004 draft (I picked that because most of those guys are either at MLB, AAA, or out of baseball, so name recognition is easier): http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2004/round1

See how many guys you recognize out of the first round.  There are some, but is a low percentage. Then keep going down in rounds.  Not only are there less recognizable names, but generally the talent level gets lower.  In this case, Brandon Boggs was the only name I recognized in the 4th. There are probably others I don't know, but there are not any Justin Verlanders (1st round) or Yovanni Gallardos (2nd).

 

Occasionally you find a Mike Piazza in the 49th round, but that is the exception, not the rule.

 

I know this was posted awhile ago but I went back and looked at the 4th round of this draft. Not all guys are known by the name listed but I recognized the following immediately, most of whom have seen time at ML level:

 

Chuck Lofgren (former Nashville Sound, hasn't done much)

Brad Bergesen (decent rookie year in 09 but Suppan-esque since)

Chris Iannetta

Brandon Boggs

Pat White (didn't sign to play college football)

(Curtis) Ross Ohlendorf

(Robert) Casey Janssen

(Luis) Javy Guerra

Lucas Harrell

Ryan Webb

 

There were about 4 others I looked up who I didn't recognize but were either considered top 10 prospects in their organizations at one point and/or saw some time in the majors. Out of that list, I would say Iannetta, Ohlendorf, Janssen, Guerra, and Webb have all been decent, with Guerra and Janssen probably the best. I agree that you normally shouldn't expect much impact talent past the first couple of rounds but I just found it interesting that I recognized about 1/3 of the players in this particular round you named, a few of whom are actually pretty good.

[HiAndTight]

Although I didn't like the quick-to-the-majors-but-low-ceiling pick in Jungmann, I do think the Brewers are going in the right direction in terms of the draft. They did take some raw players who could turn out to be something special with guys like Lopez, Reed, McFarland, and Jenkins. It shows that they are not afraid of taking raw players. Hopefully it translates into the first round as well.

 

 

Just reading through this, I've seen him referred to as a "low ceilling," pitcher about a dozen times. Says who? Most reports I've seen have his ceilling as a #2 which is about what Yo is right now. He throws in the low 90's consistently and can run it up to the mid to upper 90's, throws a lot of strikes, had a career ERA under 2.00 at Texas, misses plenty of bats.

 

What's not to like about that? And all it takes, using his legs more, some minor tweak that perhaps adds 2-3 MPH of velocity and the Brewers all the sudden have a potential ace.

 

I don't think the Brewers had any intention of drafting the type of pitchers or players you're describing, and I don't think they did.

[TheCrew07]

He throws in the low 90's consistently and can run it up to the mid to upper 90's, throws a lot of strikes, had a career ERA under 2.00 at Texas, misses plenty of bats.

 

What's not to like about that? And all it takes, using his legs more, some minor tweak that perhaps adds 2-3 MPH of velocity and the Brewers all the sudden have a potential ace. .

 

That question has already been answered numerous times on the forum. There's plenty to like about him but his secondary stuff also needs quite a bit of refinement before we starting talking about him being a 1 or 2. Every big league hitter can hit a FB or they wouldn't be be in MLB. i don't think Sessile was too far off when he guessed the ultimate potential of the pitchers selected at the top of the draft might in reverse order of their selections... Lopez, Bradley, and then Jungmann. I don't like posting about Jungmann's negatives on a consistent basis at all, but people keep asking the same questions and I just don't think his repertoire is as refined as many posters on the forum would like to believe.

 

The curve I saw Taylor feature in the College WS reminded me of Axford's, and I actually hate it when Ax throws that pitch, it just doesn't have much bite to it, it's by far his least best pitch. College hitters were consistently getting a piece of Jungmann's curve, there's just no way I'll agree that curve was a plus pitch at that time. He's had plenty of time to refine his delivery and his stuff since I last saw him so he may have made significant improvement, but the early statistical evidence would seem to suggest that Bradley made more progress over the winter. I did like Taylor's change but I don't recall him throwing a slider at all in any of the 3 games I watched.

 

Taylor's got prototypical size, has a big arm, seems very competitive, and seems to be a pretty decent athlete, there's quite a bit to like about him. However, while he missed bats in college, he hasn't missed all that many bats so far in his professional career. Without plus secondary stuff he's a mid to back of the rotation guy even throwing in the mid 90s, with plus secondary stuff he has a chance to be special, so obviously I'm hoping he continues to grow and progress over the course of the season and beyond. However, as it stands today, I don't see him dominating big league hitters if he were to be called up this season.

[CheezWizHed]

it's by far his least best pitch

 

So which is his best worst pitch?

[wibadgers23]

With Peralta's recent struggles, would anybody else put Thornburg and Nelson at #1 and 2 in the Power 50? Maybe something like:

1. Thornburg

2. Nelson

3. Peralta

4. Jungmann

5. Bradley

[CheezWizHed]

well, its about time to see... Lets start it again. I'll open a new thread to start up a new version.