User Driven Power 50 (Dec 2011) - Results in! See Post #31

[narwhalattack]

I'm actually hoping that they'll get a couple of the following: Nick Williams, Lucas Sims, Duane Underwood, Joey Gallo, Courtney Hawkins, Rio Ruiz.

 

I think the Brewers should now concentrate on high ceiling HS players in the first and supplemental rounds, as there are already enough moderate-ceiling players in the farm system right now. Even if the player is raw and may take time to develop, they should take the risk because no matter how many moderate-ceiling or #3 starters they get, they're not gonna improve the farm system that much. It's fine to solidify a farm system with players like Jungmann, but now it's time to get some high-ceiling guys in the first round.

[DHonks]

I'm with Nate82 in that I like having our depth, even though they supposedly are #3-5 types. Look at the Rays' rotation. Yes, Shields was never thought of as an ace-type. Even Niemann never dominated the minors like experts hoped, and hasn't thrown as hard (or with as many strikeouts) since having shoulder surgery after Rice. They traded Garza, but he's not an ace as well. Price and Moore could be aces, but I'm just making the point that if you have good depth--not even great depth--it puts you in a great position where you can look to be the one trading pitchers rather than overpaying to acquire them

[TooLiveBrew]

Edit: stumbled across several short video features on Brewers prospects from MLB.com

 

Peralta

Thornburg

Bradley

Jungmann

Nelson

Schafer

Green

Ke. Davis

Morris

[CheezWizHed]

Found a few links to the wrong video clip:

Thornburg

Schafer

 

 

Jungmann has an "11 to 5" break on his curveball? That is pretty impressive for a right hander... I'm guessing they meant 1 to 7 break?

I didn't realize Kentrail had that many steals. If he can find a bit of power, his prospect status could come back quickly.

They seemed a bit high on Morris also. He has some power, but needs serious work on walks (more than "a bit") to be a serious MLB candidate.

[TooLiveBrew]

Found a few links to the wrong video clip:

Thornburg

Schafer

 

 

Jungmann has an "11 to 5" break on his curveball? That is pretty impressive for a right hander... I'm guessing they meant 1 to 7 break?

I didn't realize Kentrail had that many steals. If he can find a bit of power, his prospect status could come back quickly.

They seemed a bit high on Morris also. He has some power, but needs serious work on walks (more than "a bit") to be a serious MLB candidate.

Hmm... thanks for correcting these, & I hope they're the only ones wrong. MLB.com's video interface certainly seems to leave a lot of room for error, in terms of trying to link to a specific video.

They seemed a bit high on Morris also.

The only thing I took that they considered, in terms of Morris, was that he 'reached double-A'. Nevermind that his callup to AA was more of a token thing than anything else... he's now a top prospect!

And actually, what stands out on this more than anything is just how devoid of hitting prospects the Brewers' system is right now.

[CheezWizHed]

MLB.com's video interface certainly seems to leave a lot of room for error, in terms of trying to link to a specific video.

 

I looked at all of them, so that was probably it. What I noticed was if you watched one video, then clicked on another, the URL in the browser didn't update. So I had to "Open in new tab" to get the correct URL.

 

The only thing I took that they considered, in terms of Morris, was that he 'reached double-A'. Nevermind that his callup to AA was more of a token thing than anything else... he's now a top prospect!

 

He didn't hit for high average, really bad at taking a walk, so-so defense and 18 HRs. And "his bat will bring him to the majors". Never mind that Khris Davis hit 17 HRs at A+ in half the amount of games. I'm not signing off on Morris, but he still has a lot of work to become a MLB 1st baseman.

[TooLiveBrew]

I looked at all of them, so that was probably it. What I noticed was if you watched one video, then clicked on another, the URL in the browser didn't update. So I had to "Open in new tab" to get the correct URL.

 

I did this... well, attempted it anyway.

 

 

I'm not signing off on Morris, but he still has a lot of work to become a MLB 1st baseman.

 

Yeah. And objectively, I can't get too miffed at MLB.com for choosing to profile a former second round pick who reached AA last season & put up an OPS there over 1.000. I mean, if I were to try & do a top 10 prospects of, say, the Marlins, I'd not only not know anything about why a given player was promoted or demoted, I wouldn't even expect to be able to find out why. So it's not necessarily really fair of me to sit back & cherry-pick that factoid. What other bat should MLB.com have done instead? The Brewers' system is barren enough that, even in profiling Morris, MLB.com didn't make this huge snub or completely overlook someone else.

[DHonks]

Cheezewizhed, I'm pretty sure a 1-7 pitch for a righty would be a screwball. I

[TheCrew07]

What other bat should MLB.com have done instead? The Brewers' system is barren enough that, even in profiling Morris, MLB.com didn't make this huge snub or completely overlook someone else.

Bah! The answer to that is obvious, EVERYONE wants more information and a profile of *trumpets blaring* Arcia! http://www.ezboard.com/intl/aenglish/images/emoticons/wink.gif

 

I know the rest of you slackers are just with holding your love and secretly covet him even though only Hotdog and I had him in the top 10. The rest of you who had him in the mid to late teens will come around soon enough!

 

I still don't like the Nelson pick, rating him a "top prospect" when he's a 20ish guy in the system... well that's organizational spin in my opinion. Kentrail Davis I can see, but if he doesn't break out in AA in next season I'll personally be ready to write him off, at 24 years old it would be hard to keep making excuses for him.

 

I agree that Jungmann's change could be a plus pitch but I dispute the video's notion that the curve is already a plus pitch.

 

Over all I thought the majority of information in the videos was pretty honest and straightforward.

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

These features were done by MLB.com, not the Brewers. I don't see how it could be "organizational spin".

Over all I thought the majority of information in the videos was pretty honest and straightforward.

Agreed, it was nice to see some coverage of the system.

[TheCrew07]

It's organizational spin in the same way that BA rates Cutter Dykstra as the organization's 7th best prospect. There isn't an unbiased chain of information... TH gets his information from the scouting department, takes it to BA who tweaks, and voila, the organization's top 30 prospects is complete.

 

He didn't make your top 30, didn't make my list, wasn't higher than 16 on anyone's list, most people had him 19-23, Sickels had him at 19, and our own talent evaluators put him at 23 on the P50. I'd be curious to find out where someone like Law his him ranked, but his organizational top 10s are behind the pay wall and I don't care enough for his opinions enough to pay for them. If you look at our pitchers by results relative to age he's not a top prospect, if you look at them by projection he's not a top prospect, if you look our pitchers by results relative to league he's not a top prospect. I could get behind a break out candidate distinction, but he just hasn't performed worthy of that top prospect moniker in my opinion.

 

I find it almost dubious that MLB/MiLB, BA, and Fangraphs have him rated so much higher than everyone else. Yes he's a high draft pick who hasn't flamed out, but he hasn't set the world on fire either, he's basically just holding his own. While that's fine for an 18 year old in A ball, maybe even expected, I feel quite differently about a 22 year old putting up that kind of season. Maybe he found something late in the season or maybe the legit prospects had already been promoted out of the league and that was the reason for his success. If he puts up strong numbers in A+ during the 2012 season I could maybe jump on the bandwagon but for perspective Rivas was significantly better being the same age at the same level while coming off an injury in 2008. I championed Rivas hard, but he was so uninspiring last season I dropped him all the way 23, and while they are definitely not the same kind of pitcher, I'm drawing the comparison based on age and results to add some perspective to the discussion.

 

With his slider he could be a good short reliever but again, I have a hard time putting relievers into any top 10, regardless of the money they can save the big club, 60-70 IP just isn't anywhere near as valuable as 180, regardless of result.

 

I also freely admit that I didn't like the pick at the time it was made, Colby took and X and I to task for our opinions in the draft forum, he just had very uninspiring college career by the numbers. The numbers didn't match up with the scouting reports close enough for me, and honestly the Suppan comparison didn't help at all. If that's a 2nd round pick's best case scenario, well then given the situation I want a different 2nd round pick. There is absolutely nothing wrong with drafting and developing mid to back of the rotation starters, but again given the situation and how thin we are at the top of the talent scale, I'm looking for more. There isn't one pitcher in the system above rookie ball whom I could honestly say would be a #1 best case, but I see tons of 2s and 3s. Rogers was about the only guy with good enough stuff and a big enough arm going into 2011, coming out of the season maybe a case can be made for Peralta if the velocity reports were true, but I've never been one to hang my hat on maybe, i see him as a solid #2.

[TooLiveBrew]

I guess the more important factor about a Nelson inclusion, to me, is that I don't care that much. I wouldn't assume the MLB scouting reports are infallible or even close. Just more internet content from MLB.com that I thought would be fun to share.

 

 

There isn't one pitcher in the system above rookie ball whom I could honestly say would be a #1 best case, but I see tons of 2s and 3s

 

Then I think you're being excessively pessimistic. There are several guys that in "best case" scenarios could be #1 guys. But "best case" alone isn't necessarily a useful way to evaluate a prospect.

[TheCrew07]

Then I think you're being excessively pessimistic. There are several guys that in "best case" scenarios could be #1 guys. But "best case" alone isn't necessarily a useful way to evaluate a prospect.

Fair enough, but to whom are you referring?

[CheezWizHed]

Cheezewizhed, I'm pretty sure a 1-7 pitch for a righty would be a screwball.

 

Do scouts call it from the perspective of the catcher or the pitcher? Since you are talking about a pitcher, I've always thought of it from that perspective. From the pitcher's view, a 11-5 curveball from a right hander is the screwball.

 

Maybe he will get it like Sheets and make it a 12-6 curveball so we don't have to worry about it. That would be nice of him. http://www.ezboard.com/intl/aenglish/images/emoticons/wink.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

Then I think you're being excessively pessimistic. There are several guys that in "best case" scenarios could be #1 guys. But "best case" alone isn't necessarily a useful way to evaluate a prospect.

Fair enough, but to whom are you referring?

I think best case scenarios for Bradley, Peralta, Jungmann would be topping out as #1s. What am I hoping for? That at least one of them winds up being a good #2 or #3 type like you alluded to earlier.

[TheCrew07]

Obviously I like Peralta's slider and velocity, and the reports on his change are encouraging. He was kind of all over the place when I watched him pitch in 2009 so it's hard to draw any comparisons to his current scouting reports but I still think he's a 2 best case.

 

Jungmann... well I just posted about him again in the other thread. I'm not seeing it right now, I'd be happy if he was solid #3, but I'm definitely willing to be proven wrong.

 

Bradley is interesting, we really needed an impact lefty and the reports on him are encouraging even though his results weren't in the AFL and his college career wasn't all that inspiring either. Having never watched him pitch and knowing nothing about him other than scouting reports and opinions posted on the web, I'm hoping for the best. I will say that based on his scouting report I thought he would top out as #2, which would be awesome. I'd like a couple more impact lefties in the system.

 

The idea I was really getting at is that based on results and stuff we have a ton of guys who on average are 3s/bullpen arms and no one with consistent mid 90s velocity and 2 plus secondary pitches and stellar results who's reasonably projectable as a 1. By average I mean I'm not projecting base case scenarios. I certainly feel like we're due for a young arm to mature and make up the difference with pitchability, we've suffered through enough flame outs it at least feels like we've earned the right to experience some sort of pitching success with a #2 eventually becoming a #1, but even a guy like Thornburg looks to be a good #2 best case. And That had some power 50 comments early last year that kind of summed up my feelings on the system, it seemed like every pitcher is/was a #3/BP guy. Obviously Peralta and Thornburg were head and shoulders above the rest but what does a guy like Bucci really project as? Or Scarpetta? Or Heckathorn? Or Rivas? Nelson? etc...

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm not sure "best case" was seriously considered here in your response.

 

 

The idea I was really getting at is that based on results and stuff we have a ton of guys who on average are 3s/bullpen arms and no one with consistent mid 90s velocity and 2 plus secondary pitches and stellar results who's reasonably projectable as a 1.

 

Nowhere has anyone disagreed with this.

[homer]

The idea I was really getting at is that based on results and stuff we have a ton of guys who on average are 3s/bullpen arms and no one with consistent mid 90s velocity and 2 plus secondary pitches and stellar results who's reasonably projectable as a 1.

I wonder how many of those guys exist in the minors? Like 6? Maybe 7?

[TooLiveBrew]

That was a thought I had as well, homer.

 

I get where you're going, TC07. I know ultimately it's about finding the WOW guys (heh), the guys other teams don't have, or are just rare in general. But I think an objective best-case scenario for Jungmann would be him winding up a #1. Do I think that's likely? No. But it's at least plausible. Same for Bradley & Peralta. I haven't seen much of Bradley pitching yet at all, but in what little I did see, he looked like his stuff could be electric. Peralta's that big-bodied hard thrower, and he'd need to have those two plus pitches you alluded to earlier. Neither Bradley nor Peralta are likely to be #1s, either, but both have gotten good reviews from prospect watchers, so for me the thought is at least plausible.

 

And for me, the Brewers having multiple young pitchers who profile reasonably well as #2s & #3s is a trend in a very positive direction. I don't hold the org. accountable for not having more top pitching prospects yet, since they basically had to rebuild the upper ranks of their MiLB pitching when Jack Z left. This is an organization that has had pretty miserable success in developing pitching, so I guess I'm more encouraged than disappointed.

[Bnowell4evr]

Taylor Jungmann checks in at #58 on Keith Laws top 100 prospect list. Not too bad for a guy who will lucky to be a #3 in the pros http://www.ezboard.com/intl/aenglish/images/emoticons/eyes.gif

[HiAndTight]

Then I think you're being excessively pessimistic. There are several guys that in "best case" scenarios could be #1 guys. But "best case" alone isn't necessarily a useful way to evaluate a prospect.

Fair enough, but to whom are you referring?

I think best case scenarios for Bradley, Peralta, Jungmann would be topping out as #1s. What am I hoping for? That at least one of them winds up being a good #2 or #3 type like you alluded to earlier.

 

Best case is exccedingly rare for starting pitchers as we all know full well with our history, Rogers, Jones, Neugebauer, Gold, etc..etc...

 

But I think Bradley, Peralta, Jungman, Thornburg are all guys with potential #1 upside. All very unlikely to reach it. But when you throw in a couple more guys like Scarpetta who I think could be a really solid pitcher. Basically a poor mans Sheets as he has the fastball and curve, but obviously lacking in the big time curve. Still, if he takes a step like Peralta did last year, which he's capable of, knocking down the walk rate, and improving a touch on the K's, he's a guy who you look at as a possible #3.

 

I obviously agree though. From this particular group of 5, I'd be thrilled with a #2 and a #3. All of them are power pitchers, the first 4 have thrown 97+ in the last year, Scarpetta throws in the mid 90's(I'm not sure what he tops out at, but I know he's capable of at least throwing 95).

 

We don't need a ton of guys. Re-signing Greinke changes the entire equation. Front your rotation with Greinke and Gallardo, both of whom I think are capable of being legit aces with Greinke proving it at times in his career, if not year in year out, and Gallardo possibly taking that step at the end of last year. If you just throw in a couple of those guys hitting at near their ceilings, you're pretty well set with some cost controlled pitchers with high upsides.

 

I suppose it's how you look at pitchers. Some thrive on negativity and ameteur scouting. I look at a guy like Jungman who was one of the most dominant pitchers in college the last several years who is capable of throwing in the upper 90's with 4 pitches he an throw for strikes, and that's a guy who's capable of being a front of the rotation like guy. I don't expect him to be completely refined, just looking at power pitchers who have shown good command and or control as well as at LEAST flashing one or more average to plus secondary pitches, and he's obviously one that fits the bill there.

[Scooter1027]

Taylor Jungmann checks in at #58 on Keith Laws top 100 prospect list. Not too bad for a guy who will lucky to be a #3 in the pros http://www.ezboard.com/intl/aenglish/images/emoticons/eyes.gif

Just took a look at his top 100 prospect list and his top 10 for the Brewers...I won't say much because it's "Insider", but it was nice to see Peralta in the top 40 prospects overall, and interesting to see that he viewed Nick Ramirez as one of our top 10 prospects.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Taylor Jungmann checks in at #58 on Keith Laws top 100 prospect list.  Not too bad for a guy who will lucky to be a #3 in the pros http://www.ezboard.com/intl/aenglish/images/emoticons/eyes.gif

Just took a look at his top 100 prospect list and his top 10 for the Brewers...I won't say much because it's "Insider", but it was nice to see Peralta in the top 40 prospects overall, and interesting to see that he viewed Nick Ramirez as one of our top 10 prospects.

  

If you (or anyone) wouldn't feel wrong in doing so, would you post the rankings of any Brewers in that top 100?

[cvollbrecht]

Law's Brewers Top 10

 

*(Top 100 Ranking)

1. Wily Peralta, RHP (39)*

2. Taylor Jungmann, RHP (58)*

3. Jed Bradley, LHP

4. Tyler Thornburg, RHP

5. Taylor Green, 3B

6. Scooter Gennett, 2B

7. Cody Scarpetta, RHP

8. Logan Schafer, CF

9. Caleb Gindl, OF

10. Nick Ramirez, 1B

[TooLiveBrew]

Excellent, thanks cvollbrecht