User Driven Power 50 (Dec 2011) - Results in! See Post #31

[Herm]

1. Peralta

 

2. Green

 

3. Thornburg

 

4. Schafer

 

5. Gindl

 

6. Rogers

 

7. Jungman

 

8. Bradley

 

9. Manzanillo

 

10. Lopez

 

11. Gennett

 

12. Fiers

 

13. Scarpetta

 

14. Richardson

 

15. Ken. Davis

 

16. Maldonado

 

17. Bucci

 

18. Heckathorn

 

19. Kh Davis

 

20. Rivas

 

21. Arnett

 

22. Rivera

 

23. Nelson

 

24. Meadows

 

25. Gagnon

 

26. Arcia

 

27. Williams

 

28. Perez

 

29. Ross

 

30. Ramirez

 

31. Farris

 

32. Wheeler

 

33. Morris

 

34. Paciorek

 

35. Roberts

 

36. Walla

 

37. Halton

 

38. Garfield

 

39. Zarraga

 

40. Hall

 

[jjkoestler]

1: Peralta

2: Green

3: Thornburg

4: Jungmann

5: Bradley

6: Gindl

7: Lopez

8: Schafer

9: Rivas

10: Gennett

11: Scarpetta

12: Fiers

13: Manzanillo

14: Heckathorn

15: Richardson

16: Khris Davis

17: Ken Davis

18: Bucci

19: Arcia

20: Ozuna

 

 

I have no idea where to put Rogers. Is he still a prospect?

[CheezWizHed]

I would think Rogers is still a prospect. He was just awarded another option year, too. So he could pitch at AAA this year, which has to help his odds a bit. If he can stay healthy, at worst, he is a good RP and at best, a #2-3 SP. With "healthy" being the operative question...

 

I'll post the final results Monday morning (back to my original timing), since we did have a couple more chip in their posts.

[TheCrew07]

Rogers is tough one for me personally. Due to his injury history and suspension I just couldn't put him on my list, and I loved the pick, just I like I loved the Odorizzi pick. Partly because of their physical skills but mostly because I really liked what the picks represented... multisport athletes that didn't specialize. Specialization has been a pet peeve of mine for a very long time because I coached in a school with less than 600 kids where other coaches were pushing athletes to specialize when we (the football staff)always encouraged kids to play a sport in all 3 seasons if their family would allow it. Being a school of 600 competing against schools with enrollments over 1000 we just weren't going to be able to build strong programs for either gender if the kids were specializing, it made zero sense in every way.

 

If people so choose I think Mark certainly deserves to be on prospect lists, I'm still pulling very hard for him, but there's just not much to be excited about given what transpired over the course of last season. Right now I'd be happy if he gave the MLB team some relief innings... and I was adamant he remain a starter as long as possible.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, I think the bullpen is Rogers's future, and there's nothing wrong with that at this point. I just want to see him let it fly.

[LouisEly]

1. Peralta

2. Thornburg

3. Green

4. Schafer

5. Jungmann

6. Bradley

7. Fiers

8. Scarpetta

9. Lopez

10. Manzanillo

11. Rogers

12. Heckathorn

13. Gindl

14. Bucci

15. Gennett

16. Richardson

17. M. Walker

18. Rivera

19. Rivas

20. Maldonado

21. Arcia

22. Nelson

23. Arnett

24. Kh. Davis

25. Ke. Davis

26. Kintzler

27. Farris

28. Lamontagne

29. Marzec

30. McFarland

31. Kjeldgaard

32. Morris

33. Gagnon

34. Albury

35. Wooten

36. Perez

37. Roberts

38. Ramirez

39. Merklinger

40. Meadows

41. Hall

42. Barnes

43. Dennis

44. Walla

45. Garfield

46. Mittelstaedt

47. Reed

48. Ozuna

49. Keller

50. Williams

[CheezWizHed]

Final results are here. If someone doesn't have a number in front of their name, they were tied with the previous person.

 

1 Wily Peralta

2 Tyler Thornburg

3 Jed Bradley

4 Taylor Jungmann

5 Caleb Gindl

6 Taylor Green

7 Scooter Gennett

8 Jorge Lopez

9 Cody Scarpetta

D'Vontrey Richardson

11 Nick Bucci

12 Logan Schafer

13 Santo Manzanillo

14 Yadiel Rivera

15 Michael Fiers

16 Orlando Arcia

17 Kyle Heckathorn

18 Kentrail Davis

19 Khris Davis

20 Jimmie Nelson

21 Drew Gagnon

Max Walla

23 Mark Rogers

24 Brooks Hall

25 Amaury Rivas

26 Ruben Ozuna

27 Hunter Morris

28 David Goforth

29 Michael Reed

30 Nick Ramirez

31 Chris McFarland

32 Eric Arnett

33 Osmel Perez

34 Eric Farris

35 Tyler Roberts

36 Brock Kjeldgaard

37 Martin Maldonado

38 Alan Williams

39 Brandon Kintzler

 

Danny Keller

41 Daniel Meadows

42 Mike McClendon

43 Cameron Garfield

44 Austin Ross

45 Tommy Toledo

46 Dan Merklinger

47 Rob Wooten

48 Matt Miller

49 Mike Walker

50 Gian Rizzo

[CheezWizHed]

A few more interesting facts:

 

15 total entries. Averaged 37 prospects per entry.

 

1st Place votes:

- Peralta: 31

- Thornburg: 1

- Bradley: 1

 

80 prospects in total received votes.

 

Largest gaps between prospects happened

- between #6 Taylor Green and #7 Scooter Gennett

- between #19 Khris Davis and #20 Jimmie Nelson

[TheCrew07]

Thanks for the work you put into this!

[paul253]

While it's nice to see those 4 names at top, I can't help but look at that list and come away very disappointed in the last three drafts. Seeing high draft pick rank so low, in a weak system no less, is very disheartening. Nelson (2nd round), Gagnon (3rd) Morris (3rd) Ramirez (4th) Arnett (1st) Walla (2nd) and Miller (5th) all seem like, for a lack of better terms, wasted picks. Milwaukee can't afford to be wasting so many high round picks.

[CheezWizHed]

The thing to remember about MLB drafts (rather than NFL drafts) is that if you can hit on 2 or 3 MLB players in the whole draft, you had a successful draft. I thought I've read somewhere that somewhere around 50% of 1st round pick make a MLB roster (or something like that).

 

Not sure what more you expected out of Morris and Ramirez (both 4th). Both have the same major flaw in not taking walks, but both also have good (not great) power. Gagnon was just drafted. Nelson and Walla have taken a while, but are starting to show some promise from their 2nd round draft positions. Miler will probably end up as a RP but still throws in the mid-90s. Arnett is really the only real bust you've listed.

 

But, we all knew that our system isn't loaded with prospects, unfortunately. Just seeing last year's draft impact on the system can show you how fast it can turn around.

 

Positives from our system:

1) We have some SP prospects at the AAA level (Peralta, Thornburg, Scarpetta and Fiers + Rogers?). Who knows if Peralta or Fiers will make the MLB roster, but its nice to have talent waiting to help.

2) Lots of DSL help coming. Maybe its because our system is down that so many of these guys look good, but I don't remember ever having that many (probably) make the jump to the main land.

3) Sleepers: I tend to be overly positive on some players, but there are a number of guys that have looked really bad so far (or small improvements) or for some reason, just gone underneath the radar as a prospect. Guys that I can see breaking out this year:

- Bucci: Already came out of the "fog" a little last year, but I think he continues his progression at AA to becoming a top-5 prospect.

- Kentrail Davis: Seems to hit anywhere but Florida. At AA, I think he reestablishes himself as a Gindl-like prospect.

- Nelson: Its taken a while, but it was starting to click at the end of last year. Probably won't ever be a high-end SP, but I think he starts moving forward prospect wise.

- Maldonado: No one seems to like the guy as a prospect, but I still see a Blanco-like player in him.

- Meadows/Merklinger: Those LHPs... Always ranked pretty low, but at least one is going to make a decent LOOGY.

- Garfield: Injuries keep nagging, but if he can stay healthy, he was doing pretty well at A-ball and was still young for the level.

- Prince/Wheeler: one of these guys will bounce back and become a utility player.

 

4) New guys we didn't see much of:

- Reed - Has all the tools for CF

- McFarland - signed above slot (probably a 3rd round pick level). Might start pushing Rivera for our best SS prospect.

- Keller - I think he had an injury last year never pitched for the Brewers. But sounds like a higher ceiling guy that slipped in the draft.

- Gagnon - Like Nelson, I think he might take a little longer to develop than we would like (esp for a college guy), but the upside is there.

 

Sure, not all of 3 or 4 will pan out like I think (or would like), but they are positives.

 

Thanks for the work you put into this!

It actually was kind of fun. I learned a lot about Excel. Drat! I just outed myself as a geek...

[JohnBriggs12]

I didn't vote because really beyond the top 15 who really knows, but I'm shocked some had Gennett who would be my #2 or #3 out of the top 10.

[CheezWizHed]

I didn't vote

 

Just like in politics, if you don't vote, you can't complain. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Seriously, you could have just posted a top 15.

 

I thought Gennett ended up in a good spot (of course, I had him ranked 8th, so...). And being right behind Green works for me. Both are similar: neither are can't miss prospects, not the greatest defense, OK power (though Green seems better here). Since he isn't a top tool player, he is going to have to prove himself at AA (especially in power) before he jumps up higher for me.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, thanks for compiling this, CWH.

I think the guy that stood out most to me was Goforth at #28. He's routinely mentioned as one of the better arms in the system, & I think this user-driven top 50 shows just how reliant we are on stats & familiarity with players (Rogers at #23)... Gennett reeks of that too imo. I'm a little surprised people would project Gennett ahead of Yadiel Rivera or Chris McFarland.

To take on most of your list of players there, CWH...

- Bucci: should definitely be ahead of Scarpetta, he's one the Brewers FO has talked about quite a bit. I just get the feeling they see projectability in him still, & all he's done is pitch well.

- Ke. Davis: compared to Gindl seems fair, including defensively. Both should defend well or ok in a corner spot, & probably have just enough pop to do so at the big-league level (although maybe not full-time)

- Nelson: I'm going wait-and-see with him. Hoping he continues to improve.

- Maldonado: I agree on him, I'd like to see him get utilized more.

- Garfield: Tyler Roberts probably deserves a mention just as much as Cameron, but Garfield seems to have the higher ceiling.

- Prince/Wheeler: Prince I still am optimistic about, Wheeler seems like just a guy or injury depth.

- Reed: I included him, but I've read everything from 'avg. athlete who gets the most out of his tools' to '5-tool player who could do it all'. I'm excited about his potential, but he needs to play. I had him right next to Walla because I think they sound similar.

- McFarland: great get in the draft, and in the last year that this type of signing will be allowed, no less. Always good to add another quality SS.

- Gagnon: seems low at 21

I agree on your take on the DSL contributions, & think the DSL names Rizzo, Dicent, & Perez could become a lot more familiar in 2012 & beyond.

[CheezWizHed]

Well, I was about to say Goforth was a bit high, but I see that I had him at #28 also. In a normal year, draft picks that late normally don't make the P50 (but I guess this is the U50). Has a good arm, but was a 7th round draft pick and profiles as a reliever. His height probably doesn't help matters either.

 

And Rogers is still up there, as he still has a good chance of being a good MLB RP, plus he has succeeded at that level (limited). The only reason he is in the 20s is his injury problems.

 

I think this user-driven top 50 shows just how reliant we are on stats & familiarity with players

 

Agreed (and freely admitting my infatuation with Maldonado and Khris Davis flies against the "scouting" on their bats). I've also admitted that I do my P50 based on "probable impact to the MLB club". A high ceiling player at the rookie level that is highly likely to flame out and not reach the MLB ends up being lower than someone like Maldonado that is highly likely to at least become a backup catcher in the bigs. (Of course, looking at my list I might not have done that 100%...)

 

Other people go completely on ceiling of the player. There is no wrong way to do it, because its all for fun anyway as we pretend that we are MLB GMs.

[TooLiveBrew]

Has a good arm, but was a 7th round draft pick and profiles as a reliever. His height probably doesn't help matters either.

 

Hmm, I swear I've read rave reviews about his arm... I definitely don't remember coming across anything pegging him as a reliever already. Not disputing anything, CWH, I just hadn't seen such bear-ish reports on him yet. Bummer.

 

Didn't Toby/AndThat have some pretty glowing things to say about Goforth both on draft day & after?

[CheezWizHed]

Maybe I read too much into the comments but from AndThat in the draft forum (emphasis added):

 

Goforth showed mid-90s velocity and thrived in a set-up role as a

freshman in 2009, striking out 36 in 35 innings. He was a draft-eligible

sophomore last season and imploded when he moved into a part-time

starting role, with an 8.41 ERA. He couldn't throw his secondary pitches

for strikes, but remedied that in 2011 when he added a cut fastball.

Goforth's four-seamer still has plenty of giddy-up, at times reaching 97

mph even when he starts. He can throw strikes with the cutter, which

sits 88-92 mph and gives him a power pitch with life. His four-seam

fastball tends to flatten out. He still throws a curveball and changeup

on occasion, but his approach is mostly to overpower hitters. He's

thrown a lot more strikes this year thanks in large part to the cutter,

and should be able to pitch mostly off his fastball and cutter as a pro

reliever. A 31st-round pick a year ago, Goforth should go out in the

fifth-round range this season.

 

Found it herealso:

7) David Goforth, RHP, Mississippi: Inconsistent in college, very

effective at times with fastball that can hit 96 along with a curve,

cutter, and changeup. Projects more as a reliever in pro ball, good

ceiling.

 

Of course, they said pretty much the same thing about Thornburg...

[TooLiveBrew]

Very true on Thornburg. And I guess once again, human memory (or at least mine) shouldn't be trusted! Thank you for finding those notes.

[paul253]

Not sure what more you expected out of Morris and Ramirez (both 4th).

Both have the same major flaw in not taking walks, but both also have

good (not great) power. Gagnon was just drafted. Nelson and Walla have

taken a while, but are starting to show some promise from their 2nd

round draft positions. Miler will probably end up as a RP but still

throws in the mid-90s. Arnett is really the only real bust you've

listed.

Sorry it took me a bit to respond. What did I expect from Morris and Ramirez? I expected them not to be drafted so high. Walla hasn't even reached A ball yet so whatever promise he's shown has to be taken with a grain of salt. I personally don't think it should take a 2nd round pick, even a high schooler, two and a half years to reach low A ball. Nelson was a college pitcher who struggled pretty bad in low A ball (4.38era 1.45 whip 60 walks in 146 innings) Matt Miller wasn't a whole lot better. I could include Cam Garfield in there as well as he was a second round pick I believe.

 

Of course there is time to turn things around and it is too early to call them busts, but it just concerns me that so many high round picks are taking this long to show signs of life, if they even are showing signs of life.

[CheezWizHed]

I expected them not to be drafted so high.

 

I'm thinking your draft expectations may be a bit high.

 

Ramirez - Just drafted this year. Smoked Rookie ball (as he should, since he is a 21yo college player) and struggled at A-ball. This is not unusual. Next year will show more about him than anything he did this year.

Morris - Played last year at A-ball, this year at A+ and hit well, not great, but not bad.

 

If you were expecting either of those to be the next Prince Fielder (a high 1st round pick), you are fooling yourself. They are decent players drafted in the 4th round. You generally don't find all-stars in that round.

 

Nelson - Much has been said about Nelson when he was drafted. Many people much more knowledgeable about scouting were quite disappointed. And unfortunately, Nelson has lived down to those expectations. He struggled at A-ball after being a college pitcher. But he showed some signs of improvement (something Arnett has failed to do) in the second half of last year.

 

Walla - Was 20 last year in Rookie+. Sure, one would hope he would move a little faster, but its not uncommon for HS players to take a little while. Being 21 at A-ball is also not out of the normal. What is more disappointing to me is that he hasn't shown the power that he was drafted for. But again, like Nelson, started to show some life later in the season. I will be watching him at A-ball closely.

 

Matt Miller - pretty much has been as advertised when drafted. Throws hard, but straight. Not much on the secondary pitches. Will probably be a reliever. Probably has lasted longer as a SP than some people thought.

 

Cam Garfield - Garfield was also 20 last year. He started at A-ball, got injured and finished at Rookie+. But to me, it seemed like the light-bulb went on last year. He struggled the first two years, but was also young for his level (18 at Rookie+, 19 at A-ball in the previous two years). If he had not been injured, I think we would be talking about him much higher on the prospect list (say top-20). He will probably be my pick for break-out player of the year. Injuries seem to be the only thing holding him back.

 

Again, it seems that your MLB draft expectations are too high. Nelson, Walla and Garfield "should" be expected a bit more than they have given as 2nd round picks, but its really not all that unusual either. Morris, Ramirez and Miller are about average (IMO) as 4th and 5th round picks. I think we tend to "dream" a bit when we read these draft bios (I know I do) about these guys becoming all-stars or solid MLB starters or whatever. But often those expectations are unfair to load on these kids' shoulders.

 

edit-Add a bit more:

 

For example, go look back at the 2004 draft (I picked that because most of those guys are either at MLB, AAA, or out of baseball, so name recognition is easier): http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2004/round1

See how many guys you recognize out of the first round. There are some, but is a low percentage. Then keep going down in rounds. Not only are there less recognizable names, but generally the talent level gets lower. In this case, Brandon Boggs was the only name I recognized in the 4th. There are probably others I don't know, but there are not any Justin Verlanders (1st round) or Yovanni Gallardos (2nd).

 

Occasionally you find a Mike Piazza in the 49th round, but that is the exception, not the rule.

[StearnsFTW]

I didn't vote because really beyond the top 15 who really knows, but I'm shocked some had Gennett who would be my #2 or #3 out of the top 10.

Well, we pretty much disagree on everything so you shouldn't be surprised. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[LouisEly]

If those guys were great players they would have been drafted in the first round. They were drafted where they were (2nd - 4th) because they had some above-average skills but needed to improve some areas. Some people scream "draft HS players because they have a higher ceiling!!!", but the reality is that it is hardest to tell with HS players because of the level of competition they play; they have the most adjustments to make, and thus it may take longer if they ever even make those adjustments. Pretty much everyone after the middle of the 1st round has to make adjustment and/or improve certain areas in order to make the majors.

 

Take some time to go back to the 2000-2005 drafts and look at what % of 2nd-4th round picks make the majors. That will give you some perspective. Ironically, except for Yo Gallardo in 2004, a vast majority of the best major league players drafted in the 2nd round were college players, and typically it is only 3-4 major league starting caliber players in the 2nd round of any draft.

[TheCrew07]

Some people scream "draft HS players because they have a higher ceiling!!!", but the reality is that it is hardest to tell with HS players because of the level of competition they play; they have the most adjustments to make, and thus it may take longer if they ever even make those adjustments.

I think you've missed the point. Generally when people are talking about HS talent they are looking for impact type players, and very few impact college players are taken past the 10th pick in the first round, I already went through and made a list of those players before last year's draft. That doesn't mean the Brewers shouldn't draft a variety of types of players, in fact I do believe in drafting players that are productive but not necessarily toolsy, I'm even down with relievers being taken later in the draft. However in a system very thin on impact talent, it's important to add as much as possible through the draft since Melvin doesn't trade for it, so early on in the draft I'm looking for impact players. Since the Brewers have been relatively successful at the MLB level we've been drafting mid to late 1st round, which is why HS players have been the focus for many, because they are most likely group to produce an impact player in from those draft positions.

 

I'll use Jungmann as an example, when I watch him pitch, I see a #3 best case early in his career, but he's also likely to at least be #5. He's more likely to contribute at MLB vs a Lopez, but he's also less likely to be someone that will headline a staff. Jungmann could certainly tighten his secondary stuff and be that top of the rotation guy while Lopez could be the next Seth Lintz, While we never know how things will turn out on draft day, I liked the Lopez pick more than the Jungmann pick from an impact talent standpoint. Mostly the opinions on this topic will come down to personal preference, I'm coming from a more pragmatic place, we've traded nearly every potential impact player from the 2nd wave, we desperately need more high end talent in the system.

 

I suppose I actually may come across as being idealistic, especially in regards to Melvin and the organization, but I'm actually trying to keep my philosophies pretty simple and straightforward... Build off of young pitching and fill the organization with as much impact talent as possible. Historically those have the 2 biggest weaknesses of the organization, we had a good run through the early 2000s, but the majority of those scouts and talent evaluators are gone and we were still woeful developing pitchers when we had them. I do like Seid and hope he's successful, well we need him to be successful, but I'm not into building a system full cookie cutter players who are league average at best with high floors and low ceilings because then you're building to be mediocre, and I desperately want to win the WS.

[narwhalattack]

Although I didn't like the quick-to-the-majors-but-low-ceiling pick in Jungmann, I do think the Brewers are going in the right direction in terms of the draft. They did take some raw players who could turn out to be something special with guys like Lopez, Reed, McFarland, and Jenkins. It shows that they are not afraid of taking raw players. Hopefully it translates into the first round as well.

[nate82]

I'll use Jungmann as an example, when I watch him pitch, I see a #3 best case early in his career, but he's also likely to at least be #5. He's more likely to contribute at MLB vs a Lopez, but he's also less likely to be someone that will headline a staff. Jungmann could certainly tighten his secondary stuff and be that top of the rotation guy while Lopez could be the next Seth Lintz, While we never know how things will turn out on draft day, I liked the Lopez pick more than the Jungmann pick from an impact talent standpoint. Mostly the opinions on this topic will come down to personal preference, I'm coming from a more pragmatic place, we've traded nearly every potential impact player from the 2nd wave, we desperately need more high end talent in the system.

 

 

But for the Brewers I actually like these picks. Sure they are not the players I would like to see in the minors but they are players the Brewers need. Right now the Brewers have a lot of #3 ceiling probably #5 type pitchers in their farm system. This is the type of young pitching the Brewers need. I would rather see the Brewers have a lot of #3-5 starters in the farm system because that means the team is less likely to sign a guy like a Looper, Wolf, or Suppan in free agency. Fiers, Scarpetta, Jungmann and others are exactly what the Brewers need in terms of prospects. Peralta who I am not the biggest fan of is probably the only pitcher who could be a #1 or a #2 starter in the majors. While I would love to have more of those pitchers in the minors for the Brewers the reality is that it is just not all that likely to happen. I am actually rather pleased with the Brewers farm system when it comes to pitching prospects but when it comes to the bats that is where the farm is lacking as there is basically no plus power bat in the group and there is only really one toolsy player in D'Vo in the farm system right now. I'll wait and see on some of the other players but right now D'Vo is the only true toolsy player the Brewers have. There is a lot of roster filler for bats but that is about it and the only impact player the Brewers have in terms of a bat in the minors right now has a lot of question marks to him in Gennett.

If the Nationals sign Prince I hope the Brewers go with an impact bat with the Nationals pick as the farm system is completely lacking that big bat. I believe the Brewers can relax a little on the pitching for now not ignore it but they can relax on it for now. I really would like to see the Brewers somehow either get Gavin Cecchini a high school SS/2B will probably be a rather good SS in the majors. Deven Marrero who will probably be gone when the Brewers pick is another SS I would love to see the Brewers get into their farm system. Deven Marrero would be an impact SS and would fix that position rather quickly within 2-3 years. From what I have seen of Marrero playing he reminds me of Hardy before his ankle injury. I am not sure you could find a more sure handed and slick fielding SS in the draft than Marrero he has every tool you would want from a SS though his range like Hardy's will not be all that great though he does position himself like Hardy very good and he has the arm like Hardy has. Marrero though will probably be gone within the first 10 picks well before the Brewers get to pick.

The Brewers do need to draft more athletic players though as I am always in love with guys who can do more than one thing great. Maybe this is why I like D'Vo better than any of the other Brewers prospects. I really do like the draft coming up this year in terms of bats that the Brewers could get both high school and college there looks to be some very good bats to choose from. Adam Brett Walker is probably my favorite as he reminds me of Adam Dunn and I am a huge Dunn fan. I still wish the Brewers could have gotten C.J. Cron last year as he would have been a fast mover with a good bat at a position of need for the Brewers.