Why does everyone want to trade Hart?

[Patrick425]

As someone already stated, Hart is a bargain for the next two years if you look at the recent FA signings. However, he is only signed through 2013. If the Brewers do not extend him before the end of the 2012 season, they will have to start thinking about their options with him. Trade him while they can get some value in return? Extend him?...at what cost? Again, part of what makes him so valuable is his relatively low contract. If it takes something like $15mil per year to keep him beyond 2013, then suddenly he does not seem like such a value.

[joepepsi]

I think calling Hart's defense "terrible" is ridiculous hyperbole. Do you guys watch outfielders on other teams?

I bet most fans feel their team's defense is bad compared to the rest of the league. We watch more games of our favorite team than any other team, so we see every mistake, miscue, dropped ball. Fans always remember the mistakes. I watched yesterday's Packer game at a neighborhood bar. Judging by the comments of the patrons, you'd have been convinced they were the worst team in the NFL.

[gregmag]

Maybe this is wrong, but I don't expect Hart to age particularly well in his 30s. He has already lost his speed, he has been hurt quite a bit, and pretty soon he's likely to need a move to 1b. At this point he's a real "old player skills" guy. For what we're paying him now, and given the team's needs, I love having him. I wouldn't be shopping him now, although of course I'd pay attention if someone came around with an indecent proposal. But I suspect that, unless he somehow stinks up the joint the next two years (which I don't expect), his next contract won't be a good deal.

[paul253]

Do you guys watch outfielders on other teams?

 

I don't think what other teams' players do have any sort of effect on whether or not Hart plays good defense. If I score a 30% on a test, the fact that five people scored worse than me doesn't mean that my 30% was a good score. I never thought his defense was that bad until this past year. He just made some awful plays. Maybe they stood out because of when they happened, but he's just one more guy that causes me to hold my breath every time the ball is hit to him (Weeks is another guy).

 

And his complete inability to hit when he bats 5th or 6th just boggles my mind. It really makes me wonder if he only hits well when people like Braun and Fielder are behind him and pitchers don't want to put guys on base for them. I think Hart is a good "sell high" candidate right now and if we can get decent pitching in return for him we should jump all over it. A talented young pitcher under control for 6 years is a lot harder to find that 20-30 home run a year right fielder who plays below average defense and costs $9 million a year. Just my opinion.

[fondybrewfan]

The only reason Hart is brough up so much as a trade candidate is only because he is the most logical choice given potential return, salary savings, etc. Braun, Gallardo, Weeks, Etc aren't getting traded. If you want to get rid of some salary while still getting a good return Hart just makes the most sense of anyone on the team.

 

I like Hart and all but I wouldn't hesitate to trade him if the right deal came along. I am sure that he is not in the untouchable category that Gallardo, Braun, and Weeks are in.

[Baldkin]

And his complete inability to hit when he bats 5th or 6th just boggles my mind.

Can we stop pumping this misinformation? He has an .808 OPS in the 5-hole and an .850 OPS in the 6th hole. Considering his career OPS is .821, I'm not sure where this idea comes from, other than everyone remembering his injuries and horrid slump in 2008.

[jjfanec]

And his complete inability to hit when he bats 5th or 6th just boggles my mind.

Can we stop pumping this misinformation? He has an .808 OPS in the 5-hole and an .850 OPS in the 6th hole. Considering his career OPS is .821, I'm not sure where this idea comes from, other than everyone remembering his injuries and horrid slump in 2008.

Did he say he didnt like hitting 5th? That has been posted before but maybe it is false

[Raw Biz]

And his complete inability to hit when he bats 5th or 6th just boggles my mind.

Can we stop pumping this misinformation? He has an .808 OPS in the 5-hole and an .850 OPS in the 6th hole. Considering his career OPS is .821, I'm not sure where this idea comes from, other than everyone remembering his injuries and horrid slump in 2008.

It's not technically an inability to hit there. He just claimed that he doesn't want to and he only wants to hit like 1st or 2nd. I don't know why he says that though because this was really the first year where he struggled hitting in the second half of the order. He had a .786 OPS hitting 5th in 08, .793 5th in 09 and .924 6th in 09 (while doing worse hitting 1st and 2nd), 1.091 6th in 10 and only .814 2nd, and finally .752 6th this year with .917 1st and .991 2nd. Obviously these sample sizes vary but I think he's just being stubborn and wants to leadoff. He's actually done well hitting 5th/6th and that's where he should be hitting. Another reason why I don't care for him much.

[Bernman23]

The oblique injury probably was the issue with his speed throughout last season. That will cause you to run like an old man. He could get much better in that dept after an offseason of rest, rehab, and treatment.

 

And the Aoki acquisition would remedy some of the outfield issues that will be created without Braun. I don't know why people would want that undone with a preseason Hart trade.

 

So a Hart trade right now wouldn't be prudent.

 

But midseason, if he's shown some improvement in the mobility department, and Aoki, Gamel, Morgan, and Braun are performing; might. The Crew would have a surplus of talent in the outfield and at 1B, and might be better served with another pitcher instead, one who is cheaper and will improve the team's chances of extending/re-signing Greinke and remaining under budget this year.

[rluzinski]

Some people have been predicting his demise for years. When it doesn't happen, they just continue to predict it. Hart is a very good hitter and a little below average defender (who makes occasionally very ugly plays). He's easily worth his current contract.

 

That said, I will trade any player who can get more in return that he's worth. If it's Hart, so be it. Just don't tell me the Brewers should trade Hart because he's going to fall apart... any day now.

[GAME05]

predicting his ability in his next contract is irrelevant. we don't know if we'll want to resign him at that point, don't know if he'll sign for yet another bargain based on ability, don't know how much he'll even regress as a player. i can understand trading him for equal value, but not trading him based on what he might be after his current contract is up. Braun is going to be terrible once his current contract expires, too.

 

A talented young pitcher under control for 6 years is a lot harder to find that 20-30 home run a year right fielder who plays below average defense and costs $9 million a year. Just my opinion.

 

not based on research, but i'd bet that reasonably-priced 30 HR hitters (defense notwithstanding) are much more rare in baseball than quality pre-arby pitchers. plus the consensus seems to be Hart for an up-and-coming AAA type player, which is no guarantee of success. if we were a .300 team the risk would be worth taking, but not as we currently stand.

[TheCrew07]

not based on research, but i'd bet that reasonably-priced 30 HR hitters (defense notwithstanding) are much more rare in baseball than quality pre-arby pitchers. plus the consensus seems to be Hart for an up-and-coming AAA type player, which is no guarantee of success. if we were a .300 team the risk would be worth taking, but not as we currently stand.

There's no way that's true, and reasonably priced is a pretty loose description... There are usually a couple of veteran hitters on the market every year in the 20-30 HR range through FA. Hart isn't a perennial 30 HR/year hitter, you can't just project his stats and say if he played in 150 game he'd do such and such, it's not like he's had seasons of 100 or less games. He's been fairly healthy and is aging as a player, some decline should be expected.

 

Furthermore that statement is off base because the only way to acquire young impact pitching is to develop it or trade for it, there is no FA market to acquire young impact pitching. Historically the Brewers are horrible at developing pitchers, which is why I've been mostly talking about acquiring young impact starting pitching since the 2007-2008 off season. The simple truth is we need more contracts like Yo's and less contracts like Wolf's. It's not about the "small market mindset" as some would put it, it's about the fiscal reality of the situation.

 

It seems that many times payroll flexibility is equated to roster flexibility which I think is a pretty narrow view and couldn't be farther from the actual truth. True roster flexibility is about depth of talent more so than financial flexibility, though at least in the Brewers case the financial component will always play significant role. If the organization is deep in talent decisions can be made not based solely on cost, but with other goals in mind such as acquiring a different position of need, better defense at a position, perhaps 1 player projects to have a higher OBP, RH vs LH, and so on. When we're essentially 1 deep or worse everywhere, we don't have any true flexibility talent wise and end up making decisions based almost entirely on cost. There's no picking and choosing between various players to create the best possible team, we just roll with what we have.

 

It's no secret I'm not into buying wins at the going market rate or signing players entering the steep part of the injury nexus curve to long term contracts. I don't want to get into the whole proven vs unproven argument again, I think it's a completely baseless and unrealistic claim.

 

It's prudent to cycle talent if the opportunity presents itself. I don't think many people realize how badly the scouting dept was gutted, this isn't the same scouting staff Jack Z had when we drafted many of our current players. We lost a guy or 2 every year culminating with Z's departure where he further raided the staff. If we are no longer drafting and developing impact talent, then we have to trade for it, because we aren't able to afford it in FA.

 

Hart, Hardy, and Braun were my favorite Brewers coming through the system... My thoughts on trading Hardy were well known and many of those same arguments against trading Hardy (or any proven player) keep getting recycled every time some one suggests trading an established and successful member of the current Brewer team. The reality is that in the grand scheme very few players are irreplaceable, those that are such are typically HOF players, they don't come around very often. Of course there will be sentimental and personal bias towards a certain player, like a McGehee for example, who was a favorite even though he clearly wasn't as physically gifted as his peers. However when talking about what's best for the team we need to abandon that personal bias and strive to be as objective as possible, we all know how that situation played out.

 

I can get behind the idea Hart has been overshadowed, but this isn't like someone claiming he won't be able to hit because his elbow isn't in the proper position. He's 29 years old, and while we aren't able to accurately predict his drop off as player, neither can we realistically point to his history and make definitive claims about his future production either. It goes both ways... sports are a young man's game, and it doesn't matter which league, any player's production will peak when the mental side of the game meets his physical skill, health permitting of course.

 

Ken Griffey Jr played in 160 games as a 29 year old and 145 as a 30 year old, then was never the same. Who would have predicted such a severe decline in games played going into his 31 year old season? He didn't play in 140 games again until his age 37 season when he posted an .869 OPS. I'm not suggesting Griffey and Hart are similar talents, I'm suggesting that all players regardless of age, talent, or experience carry risk. It's up to us to qualify what's an acceptable risk, but I think many people allow sentimental attachments to players to cloud the issues.

 

If you are a GM carrying a 30 year old player who's productive but not elite and someone offers elite talent at a position of greater value (starting pitcher), in my opinion you should take the deal 19 times out of 20. Rid of yourself of the contract and cycle young dynamic talent back into the organization. If value falls the way I think does in that starting pitchers > position players > relievers > closers then I'm entertaining any deal for the back of bullpen that allows me acquire an impact position player or starting pitcher. I have no interest in playing any reliever, especially a closer, the same money as a starting pitcher to pitch 1/3 to 1/4 of the innings. It's horrible value to do such. I don't play the justification of salary game where I'm combining various players together to make it look like a player who's overpaid is actually good value. I'm more prone to evaluating each player on an individual basis.

 

As far as the Brewers are concerned, Yo and Braun are the only 2 players whom are untouchable. The Brewers can live without anyone else given the right price. Hart is in the same position that Hardy was coming out of 2008 when I was championing moving JJ for pitching, Corey is the most productive and attractive trade piece the organization has. It's nothing against him personally as I said he was one of my personal favorites, but at some point it's going to be time to move on from every player currently on the roster. It doesn't matter to me when we move on, just that we get the best possible value when we do.

[DHonks]

Bernman23, why do you think Hart will run better? He admits he's slower, he looks slower, and his build is not the type where you work out more and suddenly gain speed. 6'6" players would probably not age gracefully, especially in the speed dept.

[danzig6767]

Hart's drop in speed last year seemed so drastic that it caught me off guard. There were times with Hart running the bases and especially in the outfield where say he was running in/back on a ball that i was near certain that he'd get to with fairly relative ease based on his past, yet he'd not get there and look kinda like he was running in mud while doing so. Not that long ago, Corey had great speed for a power hitting corner outfielder, so it just surprised me to see him lose so much of that speed in such a small time frame.

 

That said, given the makeup of the current roster, i see no reason to trade him now. Depending on what happens with guys like Greinke and Marcum after this year though, then maybe next offseason it could make sense to shop him.

[jazzytrav]

For a thread that asks why everyone wants to trade Hart, no one seems to want to trade Hart.

[reillymcshane]

For a thread that asks why everyone wants to trade Hart, no one seems to want to trade Hart.

For some reason there are a lot of proposals in the trade forum that include Hart.

 

Some people feel that Gindl and a righthanded platoon batter of unknown origin could hit close to Hart's output. Not sure about that, but it's been said by some. We thus save $9 million and can spend big somewhere else.

 

I argue that Corey doesn't look great doing things, but he's an ok fielder - certainly not great - and he's got an .866 and .865 OPS over the past two years. 57 HR. That's pretty friggin' good. Better than good. Is it great? No. But very good. I think it's a mistake to consider trading him. I'd ride out his prime years, get 25-30 HR from him each season, and then say 'thanks' and let him walk when he gets a $12 million/year deal just as he starts to age.

[RightFieldCoder]

List of Brewers making more than $5M next year per BF.net and my arby guessing:

Greinke 13.5M

Rodriguez 10M?

Weeks 10M

Wolf 9.5M

Hart 9M

Braun 6M

Ramirez 6M

Gallardo 5.5M

Marcum 5M+?

 

Most here believe we need more pitching (and that you always need more pitching). So let's take starting pitchers off the list.

 

Now we have: Rodriguez, Weeks, Hart, Braun, Ramirez

We aren't trading A-Ram, Weeks, or Braun.

 

That leaves Rodriguez and Hart as the "expensive" players to trade to reduce payroll. Since no one seemed interested in K-Rod in the open market, I'm not sure there would be many trading partners that would make a trade giving us payroll flexibility.

 

So it's less about wanting to trade Hart and more of Hart being the best piece to trade with the combination of lowering payroll, actually getting something back in the trade, and being expendable on the team. He's not really expendable but seems so compared to Braun (HoF talent) and Weeks (plays a position with less talented players).

[RockCoCougars]

The Hart for Jurrjens proposals are proliferating as we speak on the JS Izturis blog. I don't see the need for a guy who is a 3/4 starter on this team next season, then will get incredibly expensive. Assuming Braun is suspended, take Hart from this lineup and the 2010 Giants look like Murderer's Row by comparison.

[Tbadder]

I basically agree with the arguments presented here. But if a deal came our way for youth that was significant--especially starting pitching I'd listen.

[paul253]

Assuming Braun is suspended, take Hart from this lineup and the 2010 Giants look like Murderer's Row by comparison.

With Jair Jurrjens, who put up a sub 3 ERA last season, as your #4 starter your rotation also looks like the 2010 Giants. And as I recall, the 2010 Giants did ok. Plus it provides insurance if Wolf, Greinke and Marcum walk next season. I'd personally prefer one of the Braves younger starters, but I'd take Jurrjens for Hart. This team lives and dies with pitching. As excited as I am about Peralta and Fiers, neither have had any major league success yet. And Bradley and Jungmann haven't even thrown a pitch in the minor leagues yet. And Rogers has yet to show he can stay healthy.

 

If by chance a Hart for Jurrjens deal happens, I'd look to move Wolf or Narveson. It is nice to have depth but Narveson shouldn't be pitching out of the bullpen. You can probably get a decent, lower level positional prospect for Narveson.

[endaround]

Jurrjens isn't a sub 3 ERA pitcher. He was the same pitcher he was in 2010, a 4.25 ERA in the NL with concerns about how many innings you can get out of him. He was as valuable as Narveson last year and is about to cost close to as much as Hart because of that lucky ERA.

[RockCoCougars]

With Jair Jurrjens, who put up a sub 3 ERA last season, as your #4 starter your rotation also looks like the 2010 Giants. And as I recall, the 2010 Giants did ok.

 

That was my kind of my argument. Yes, it's nice to have a stacked rotation, but at the same time, you do need some offense. The Giants had at least a little firepower that year (Huff, Posey, caught lightning in a bottle with Burrell, etc.). An opening day lineup sans Fielder, Braun and Hart would be pretty brutal. It seems like this would be dealing from a position of weakness to add to a position of strength.

[thebruce44]

I think calling Hart's defense "terrible" is ridiculous hyperbole. Do you guys watch outfielders on other teams?

Yes. I've probably watched more Cubs/Sox games than Brewers games these last few years. Hart's defense is terrible.

[brettac1]

I guess I just don't have the same love for Gindl that a lot of people do, so I definitely want Hart here for the duration of his deal. Gindl should be a good 4th OF, though.

[umphrey]

Whoever trades for Jurrjens is going to get shafted