Brewers win negotiating rights to Japanese OF Norichika Aoki for $2.5 million. Latest: signs 2-yr deal

[sheetswannabe]

That would be an awesome low risk-high reward signing if it only cost the team around 4 million. Sign me up, he looks like a solid 4th/5th OF and a good long term replacement if something happens to one of the guys.

[endaround]

It is going to be interesting to see what the Brewers offer Aoki.

Latest guess-timate

I see no way he comes over for so little. Now maybe it will be $1.5m a year over 4 which might make him interested, but really doubt $1.5 alone does anything. He can most likely wait a year and get more than that.

[Schlitz001]

That's not going to be enough to bring him over. How much was he earning in Japan?

[mrpackersfan1]

That's not going to be enough to bring him over. How much was he earning in Japan?

Something like $4.25M I believe

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, this isn't happening if that's all we offer. Unless he really, really wants to play in the US.

[JohnBriggs12]

That's not going to be enough to bring him over. How much was he earning in Japan?

Something like $4.25M I believe

I'm scratching my head at the pointlessness of making a bid with no intention of offering him a large enough contract to entice him to play here. If they didn't think he's worth paying a low end starter/platoon guy salary, why block him from going elsewhere? He would seem to be a guy that could make other guys expendable in deals for other needs and be a viable top of the order table setter for the big bats.

[crewcrazy]

I believe it was mentioned in this thread, but the NPB went to a new ball this past season & offense was way down across the league. I recall reading somewhere that Aoki's 'decline' was right in line, percentage-wise, with other top players & the rest of the league.

 

Not to hijack the thread, but did the Rangers think of this before posting $51MM for a Japanese pitcher?

Considering Darvish's ERAs before the ball change were 1.82, 1.88, 1.73 and 1.78, I don't think they're too worried. ;-) His ERA did drop to 1.44, but he also cut his BB/9 and rose his K/9 from the year before, so it wasn't all batted-ball effects.

 

As far as Aoki goes, it seems pretty clear that the Brewers only see him as a reserve type if they're only going to offer $1.5MM a year. It'd be a total commitment of $4MM this year when you factor in the posting fee, which seems fine enough. I do wonder if the Brewers would be more willing to add more money in later years of the deal, backloading it like many of the contracts they've handed out this winter.

[monty57]

That's not going to be enough to bring him over. How much was he earning in Japan?

Something like $4.25M I believe

I'm scratching my head at the pointlessness of making a bid with no intention of offering him a large enough contract to entice him to play here. If they didn't think he's worth paying a low end starter/platoon guy salary, why block him from going elsewhere? He would seem to be a guy that could make other guys expendable in deals for other needs and be a viable top of the order table setter for the big bats.

Agreed. Did they post their bid prior to K-Rod accepting arby or the Ramirez signing and now they don't have money to offer Aoki? Or was Aoki a fallback plan in case everything else fell apart?

 

It's kind of odd all around, as Melvin said they don't know anything about the players in Japan, then they post a lowball offer on Aoki which is accepted, then they fly the guy to Arizona, then they (allegedly) make an offer they can't seriously believe he'd accept.

[paul253]

Are they allowed to sign him and then trade him right away?

[reillymcshane]

That's not going to be enough to bring him over. How much was he earning in Japan?

Something like $4.25M I believe

I'm scratching my head at the pointlessness of making a bid with no intention of offering him a large enough contract to entice him to play here. If they didn't think he's worth paying a low end starter/platoon guy salary, why block him from going elsewhere? He would seem to be a guy that could make other guys expendable in deals for other needs and be a viable top of the order table setter for the big bats.

John, you nailed it here. What's the point of the whole thing if you aren't willing to pay him?

 

I'm not saying Aoki is worth a lot of money. I'm just perplexed as to why get involved if you aren't willing to be competitive for the guy.

 

I think Melvin and company put in a blind bid without thinking they'd get Aoki.

 

Oh well, I guess they work him out, and if they think he's something special, they can make a real offer. If not, they just low ball him knowing he'll go back to Japan for another year, and the team will get its $2.5 million back.

[umphrey]

Here is all the history of MLB posting fees and contracts (hopefully it formats)

Nishioka and Iwamura are the most comparable. These guys don't seem to sign 1 year deals. I would expect 2-3 years, $5M total. There isn't a lot of history but these are the numbers the Brewers and Aoki are going to look at in negotiations.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Player	Posting	Contract
Alejandro Quezada	400,001	Signed minor league contract
Ichiro Suzuki	13,125,000	3 years, $14 million
Kazuhisa Ishii	11,260,000	4 years, $12.3 million
Ramón Ramírez	350,000	Signed minor league contract
Akinori Otsuka	300,000	2 years, $1.5 million
Norihiro Nakamura	Undisclosed	Signed minor league contract
Shinji Mori	750,000	2 years, $1.4 million
Daisuke Matsuzaka	51,111,111	6 year, $52 million
Akinori Iwamura	4,500,000	3 year, $7.7 million
Kei Igawa	26,000,194	5 years, $20 million
Tsuyoshi Nishioka	5,329,000	3 years, $9 million

[brettac1]

Wow, Otsuka was a pretty awesome value.

[brewerfan82]

I think some are overestimating Aoki's negotiating power here. $1.5 million seems a little low, but I think he'd have to get paid significantly more in Japan to pass up playing in the majors for one year and becoming a free agent for all 30 teams to bid on in a year. If he went back to Japan, wouldn't he get stuck in the same situation next year? Considering no other team bid higher than $2.5 million for his posting fee, I'm not sure he'd have any better luck with whichever team he got stuck negotiating with next year.

[Funketown]

Am I right that Fukudome and Matsui were international FA's, and hence, were not subject to posting fees?

 

At first I thought $1.25 million was a blatant low ball, but maybe it's more of a moderate low ball. If all it takes to get this guy is 2 years, $6 million, I'm going to be annoyed if he goes back to Japan.

[reillymcshane]

If he went back to Japan, wouldn't he get stuck in the same situation next year? Considering no other team bid higher than $2.5 million for his posting fee, I'm not sure he'd have any better luck with whichever team he got stuck negotiating with next year.

 

 

I believe Aoki would be an unrestricted free agent after next season. He's better off going back to Japan if we low ball him.

 

He can then pick the best situation for himself next year - financially and professionally.

[brewerfan82]

If he went back to Japan, wouldn't he get stuck in the same situation next year? Considering no other team bid higher than $2.5 million for his posting fee, I'm not sure he'd have any better luck with whichever team he got stuck negotiating with next year.

 

 

I believe Aoki would be an unrestricted free agent after next season. He's better off going back to Japan if we low ball him.

 

He can then pick the best situation for himself next year - financially and professionally.

Ah, thanks for the clarification. I still wonder what he's looking at making back in Japan if he goes that route. It probably only makes sense to take a low, one year deal from the Brewers if he thinks he'll get enough playing time to prove himself in the States for his next contract then.

[endaround]

He's still Brewer property next year if he signs. So no it doesn't really help him.

[reillymcshane]

Patrick Newman at NPB tracker looks at Aoki:

 

 

http://www.npbtracker.com...2/looking-at-aokis-case/

 

 

 

It's probably the best overview of Aoki that I've seen. Not that optimistic. He's really concerned about his lack of power and how it will translate. Aoki's HR dropped to 4 last year. And his doubles went from 44 to 18. Not a great sign. His comparison is to Juan Pierre.

[HiAndTight]

Patrick Newman at NPB tracker looks at Aoki:

 

 

http://www.npbtracker.com...2/looking-at-aokis-case/

 

 

 

It's probably the best overview of Aoki that I've seen. Not that optimistic. He's really concerned about his lack of power and how it will translate. Aoki's HR dropped to 4 last year. And his doubles went from 44 to 18. Not a great sign. His comparison is to Juan Pierre.

Which he almost immediately concedes isn't accurate as Aoki is willing to take walks where as Pierre....well...he does not.

 

 

I think it's important to get this guy signed. I don't care who you are, the numbers he put up in Japan prior to last year where he was both injured and they put a different ball into play is too good to pass up at 3 million. I'd go 3 years 9 million, with 2 million this year, 3 the following and then 4 the final year.

[HiAndTight]

Fukudome had serious power in Japan, Aoki doesn't.

Aoki is a downgrade from Morgan, not sure how people can see otherwise.

And this insight must come from your extensive personal scouting of Aoki, eh?

 

Or Morgan's age, and his consistent ability going into his age 32 season to put together good back to back seasons?

[JohnBriggs12]

Patrick Newman at NPB tracker looks at Aoki:

 

 

http://www.npbtracker.com...2/looking-at-aokis-case/

 

 

 

It's probably the best overview of Aoki that I've seen. Not that optimistic. He's really concerned about his lack of power and how it will translate. Aoki's HR dropped to 4 last year. And his doubles went from 44 to 18. Not a great sign. His comparison is to Juan Pierre.

Pierre's career OBP: .345.

 

Aoki: .408

 

I don't see the comparison, but I'd take Pierre in his prime, Pierre gets a bad rap. He's got over 2,000 career hits, 554 career stolen bases, played a significant role on a World Champion and two other playoff teams and is one of if not the best bunters in the game with 144 career sacrifice bunts.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't see the comparison, but I'd take Pierre in his prime, Pierre gets a bad rap.

 

I never understood the contempt for Pierre either. It's like David DeJesus stole all the love or something. Any guy that averaged around 200 hits and 50 steals a year for several years is OK by me, I guess his walk rate wasn't high enough.

[Funketown]

I never understood the contempt for Pierre either. It's like David DeJesus stole all the love or something. Any guy that averaged around 200 hits and 50 steals a year for several years is OK by me, I guess his walk rate wasn't high enough.

Yeah, Pierre was a really good player for a few years. It seems that often times good/solid players who are wrongly viewed as elite players become whipping boys for the internet baseball community. He's one of those guys who has a classic anti-Beane profile but he was extremely good at defense, base-running, and hitting for a high average with singles.

 

If Aoki were a mid-career Juan Pierre, he would be an awesome signing. Unlike Pierre, I don't think Aoki will have a chance at hitting .326 in MLB ball.

[RockCoCougars]

I never understood the contempt for Pierre either. It's like David DeJesus stole all the love or something. Any guy that averaged around 200 hits and 50 steals a year for several years is OK by me, I guess his walk rate wasn't high enough.

Yeah, Pierre was a really good player for a few years. It seems that often times good/solid players who are wrongly viewed as elite players become whipping boys for the internet baseball community. He's one of those guys who has a classic anti-Beane profile but he was extremely good at defense, base-running, and hitting for a high average with singles.

 

If Aoki were a mid-career Juan Pierre, he would be an awesome signing. Unlike Pierre, I don't think Aoki will have a chance at hitting .326 in MLB ball.

Exactly. This is where the 'advanced statistics' lose me a bit. I can see the warts in Pierre's game, namely a low walk rate and a noodle arm (not mentioning that his SB success rate was 'only' ~75%). At the same time, you don't average 200 knocks a season if you don't have talent. On the other hand, you have a guy like David DeJesus who has a little pop with a better arm and walk rate, but less speed and average. I don't understand how he has a higher career offensive WAR than Pierre in 3,000 some less PA. Bottom line in my view, WAR underrates Pierre and overrates DeJesus.... I'd say that the truth is somewhere in between.

[umphrey]

Private workout scheduled for this weekend in Arizona