Brewers win negotiating rights to Japanese OF Norichika Aoki for $2.5 million. Latest: signs 2-yr deal

[theavrock]

Fukudome had serious power in Japan, Aoki doesn't.

Aoki is a downgrade from Morgan, not sure how people can see otherwise.

Aoki has a career OPS of .855 to Fukudome's .940 so while I agree Fukudome had more power its not as if Aoki has none. They hit 2B's at about the same rate, but Fukudome hit them over the fence more often.

I'll still say that Aoki has been the better more consistent hitter while Fukudome was more inconsistent.

The Juan Pierre comparisons just don't make any sense. Dude isn't the next Ichiro, but he has been the best pure hitter over there since Ichiro.

As to the Morgan point. Aoki can hit both righties and lefties which Morgan cannot. Morgan's D is above average, but from what I am reading about Aoki I am expecting GoGo without GoGo's arm (which is the same problem Morgan has). I guess I am curious why you say he would be downgrade. I don't think its as cut and dry as you're making it.

[RockCoCougars]

It doesn't appear that Aoki has any discernible power, but he seems to be a possible top of the order guy. I certainly wouldn't break the bank to get him, but if he's willing to give it a go at a reasonable rate, I'd be all for it. At the same time, I wouldn't be trading anyone to clear a spot until I got a good look at him on American soil.

[theavrock]

It doesn't appear that Aoki has any discernible power, but he seems to be a possible top of the order guy. I certainly wouldn't break the bank to get him, but if he's willing to give it a go at a reasonable rate, I'd be all for it. At the same time, I wouldn't be trading anyone to clear a spot until I got a good look at him on American soil.

Curious why you think this...

[RobertR]

High average contact hitter with possibly very little MLB power, good but not great speed, and possibly with not enough arm strength for CF? How does that not sound like Juan Pierre?

 

Sure, that might be the low end of expectations for Aoki, but I don't think it's a non-zero possibility. Especially if there's a learning curve for his transition.

 

It should be noted that I don't think Juan Pierre is a terrible player that brings nothing to the table. Overrated and overpaid at his peak, sure, but still a useful player and by all accounts a good guy to have in the clubhouse.

 

Now, maybe Aoki will drive the ball more than Pierre ever did and rack up quite a few doubles and turn out to be fairly valuable. I'm just saying that there needs to be a reasonable range of expectations for him and the Brewers need to cover themselves for the lower end of expectations as best they're able. I'm sure that we'll all have a read on him fairly quickly at the big league level if he has any power, but in the meantime I think the question is best left open.

 

Robert

[Bnowell4evr]

Im expecting an OF version of Jamey Carroll.

[theavrock]

The guy is a 3x batting champ, 2x MVP and 6x all star and people are acting like we just signed Rodney Dangerfield. I understand that success in Japan does not mean success in MLB, but this guy is basically Japan's best hitter.

[Hate those Rodents]

Truthfully, none of us have any clue. There's reason to be optimistic and think we pulled a coup and also reason to be pessimistic and think he's a AAAA player. Time will tell.

[monty57]

Im expecting an OF version of Jamey Carroll.

 

Are you saying that just to upset RockCoCougars :-)

 

I'm just saying that there needs to be a reasonable range of expectations for him and the Brewers need to cover themselves for the lower end of expectations as best they're able.

 

That's a valid point. I think the Brewers were surprised to get him with a $2.5MM bid. It's basically an auction, and sometimes you get something you didn't expect to get. Melvin admitted that he doesn't know much about Japanese players, and now he's sending Aoki to Arizona for his scouts to get a first-hand look at him. I'd guess they also have guys watching film on him around the clock as well. We won't have a perfect read on him, but Melvin is going to try to gather as much info as possible before negotiating. As theavrock said, this is Japan's top hitter. That doesn't mean he's assured success, but it means something.

 

Aoki is a downgrade from Morgan, not sure how people can see otherwise.

 

No one can make a line-in-the-sand statement over how good Aoki will be. There isn't enough data on Japanese players transitioning to MLB ball to be able to know how anyone will perform. Personally, I see Aoki and Morgan as similar players, but I think Aoki is the better player. One of Morgan's biggest faults is his absolute inability to hit LHP, forcing the manager to sub him out when the opposing manager puts in a lefty. We no longer have Prince, so I could see managers using lefties against Morgan just to force Roenicke to take him out and burn his bench. We saw in the playoffs that while Morgan is a good defender, he's certainly not great. Aoki is supposedly one of the better CF's in Japan. Niether of the two have strong arms, so they're probably a push there. Aoki will probably have a better batting average, while Morgan walks at a higher rate, leading to similar OBP numbers. Neither have much power.

 

I was fine with a Morgan/Gomez platoon, but if we can get someone who can play everyday and put up numbers similar to what Morgan does against RHP, then I'm glad we got him... assuming we aren't paying too much money. Throw in that we should get something in trade for Morgan and that we should get some additional revenue from a big Japanese fanbase watching, and I think it's a good deal.

[RockCoCougars]

It doesn't appear that Aoki has any discernible power, but he seems to be a possible top of the order guy. I certainly wouldn't break the bank to get him, but if he's willing to give it a go at a reasonable rate, I'd be all for it. At the same time, I wouldn't be trading anyone to clear a spot until I got a good look at him on American soil.

Curious why you think this...

He only hit 4 homers in nearly 600 AB last season. Even though he hit double digits for the rest of his career, outside of Matsui and Cecil Fielder, power in Japan has never really translated well to MLB. If Ichiro and Fukudome are comparables, neither has shown much power in the states.

 

Im expecting an OF version of Jamey Carroll.

 

Are you saying that just to upset RockCoCougars :-)

 

Touche.

 

 

 

 

[Tbadder]

Small market teams have to take continual small risks like this one. I like the chances, but it is true we don't truly know how he'll translate to the MLB. What I do like is a late inning defensive in the outfield of Aoki in LF, Morgan inCF and Gomez in RF. Three centerfielders, no ball will dare to try and reach the wall.

[Raw Biz]

It doesn't appear that Aoki has any discernible power, but he seems to be a possible top of the order guy. I certainly wouldn't break the bank to get him, but if he's willing to give it a go at a reasonable rate, I'd be all for it. At the same time, I wouldn't be trading anyone to clear a spot until I got a good look at him on American soil.

Curious why you think this...

He only hit 4 homers in nearly 600 AB last season. Even though he hit double digits for the rest of his career, outside of Matsui and Cecil Fielder, power in Japan has never really translated well to MLB. If Ichiro and Fukudome are comparables, neither has shown much power in the states.

I've heard a lot of people say that Ichiro could've hit like 25-30 HR if he wanted to. He would've had to sacrifice a lot of batting average however, so he chose to focus on that instead. I've heard Ichiro hits some bombs in BP so he has the power. I just think Japanese players in general focus on batting average and "slapping" the ball as opposed to trying to hit home runs.

[homer]

Fukudome had serious power in Japan, Aoki doesn't.

Aoki is a downgrade from Morgan, not sure how people can see otherwise.

Because Morgan is a weirdo and Aoki is not.

[twobrewers]

I agree with Homer.

 

Aoki might very well be insurance in case Morgan resorts to his past antics. The Brewers lost Hawkins, Counsell, Kotsay, McGehee and Fielder this off season - that is a lot of veteran leadership that helped keep Morgan in line. Morgan was 100% worth the risk last year. He also wore out his welcome in Pittsburg and Washington before that. I repeat, Washington didn't want him anymore! (That same team that put up with Lasting Milledge and Elijah Dukes)

[mothershipconnection]

I wouldn't put too much stock in Washington's personnel decisions.

[umphrey]

Aoki is just too much of an unknown to straight swap for Nyjer who we have pencilled in to start 75% of the games in CF and we know can hit (as long as its RHP)

[MNBrew]

I like the idea of Aoki but there's no guarantee he even signs. Suggesting he's a lock for a roster spot as some are wont to do seems a bit premature.

 

Again, I do hope it works out. That would leave the Brewers in a position to deal from strength to shore up other areas of need or just keep stocking up young talent . . . or just give them greater depth of coverage in case of injury to another OF.

[brewmann04]

let get him signed and earn a job in the outfield.

[TooLiveBrew]

He only hit 4 homers in nearly 600 AB last season.

 

I believe it was mentioned in this thread, but the NPB went to a new ball this past season & offense was way down across the league. I recall reading somewhere that Aoki's 'decline' was right in line, percentage-wise, with other top players & the rest of the league. To project his offense in 2012 MLB, it'd probably be a decent guesstimation to find the mid-point between Aoki's 2011 rate stats & an avg. of his rate stats for the previous four seasons.

 

Now with all that said, I don't think the dude has much more than gap power... but gap power with a knack for making solid contact with the ball. He'll hit, but closer to a Nyjer Morgan than a Corey Hart.

[young guns]

What is the old ball/new ball correlation to the mlb ball?

[monty57]

Aoki is just too much of an unknown to straight swap for Nyjer who we have pencilled in to start 75% of the games in CF and we know can hit (as long as its RHP)

 

I suggest giving Aoki 50 games in LF to start the season. They do play baseball in Japan. It's not the MLB, but it's not cricket. He is a guy who many thought would cost $10+MM for a posting fee and probably $10MM/year. Melvin sounded surprised to get him for the $2.5MM posting fee, but just because it happened doesn't mean he's suddenly a scrub... he's been one of the top players in Japan for a while now. If we can parlay the low posting fee into a relatively inexpensive contract, then I can't imagine we wouldn't jump at the chance to add a talented player.

 

I believe it was mentioned in this thread, but the NPB went to a new ball this past season & offense was way down across the league. I recall reading somewhere that Aoki's 'decline' was right in line, percentage-wise, with other top players & the rest of the league.

 

Not to hijack the thread, but did the Rangers think of this before posting $51MM for a Japanese pitcher?

[Eye Black]

It is going to be interesting to see what the Brewers offer Aoki. Its obviously not a guarantee they come to an agreement, but I would be slightly surprised if he returns to Japan. Having accepted a fairly low posting bid and with Lastings Milledge penciled into their 2012 line-up, the Tokyo Yakult Swallows appear to have moved on. By the way, what do you think the Swallows message boards think of Milledge?

[jerichoholicninja]

It really doesn't matter what Aoki wants to do if he doesn't sign with Milwaukee. He's under contract with his Japanese team and would need to be released to play anywhere else.

[Invader3K]

If he is already coming to work out, I would guess he's open to signing.

[Mass Haas]

It is going to be interesting to see what the Brewers offer Aoki.

Latest guess-timate

[brewmann04]

The brewers could sure use a contact hitter in the Lineup.