Brewers win negotiating rights to Japanese OF Norichika Aoki for $2.5 million. Latest: signs 2-yr deal

[Raw Biz]

I like how rosenthal said the Brewers will work Aoki out in Arizona before deciding if we should try and sign him.

 

I just shows they didn't really know what they were getting. I bet they never expected to win the bidding.

To borrow a poker term, now they are pot committed. I can't imagine them throwing away $2.5 million and never making an offer.

It really doesn't "cost" teams anything to bid. It costs them to actually sign the guy. If the guy is signed, they lose the bid. But if they don't sign him, they get their posting fee back. I know it's not just you but it seems like a lot of the general public doesn't realize how postings actually work. I wish reporters would make this point more well known so fans are actually informed.

[jjfanec]

I know it's not just you but it seems like a lot of the general public doesn't realize how postings actually work. I wish reporters would make this point more well known so fans are actually informed.

Tom H actually clearly spelled out in his blog but the espn guys do a terrible job with it.

[brettac1]

Well, I certainly hope they sign him. I hope they weren't just bidding to block another team or something. It's not like they're the Yankees, so I doubt that was the case.

[Roderick]

I doubt braun has any interest in moving to first. Hart has some experience there and is 6'6.

I very much doubt it also, but now may be the time for the team to move Braun (if they feel that is the team's best long-term interest) as he won't have very much "leverage" after being suspended for 50 games.

 

I really don't think Braun will lose any "leverage" with the Brewers. I think people are way overstating the effect of a possible 50 game suspension on Braun's future. Geez, some people are even talking about trading him? Really?

I don't know who is talking about trading him, that would be crazy. But do you think Braun would publicly complain, pout or cause any trouble about being moved to 1B while he is under or just got done with a 50 game suspension? And he isn't going to sandbag and risk "confirming" that his past numbers were a result of illegal supplements.

[monty57]

monty57: "I doubt the best hitter from Japan would sign with a team that was looking at him in the "Kotsay role".

 

Exactly. Nor would the Brewers who, according to Melvin were over budget already, invest that much in a guy they look at as a bench player. Even if Aoki is no better the 2nd coming of Fukudome, if Melvin has a great offer (starting pitcher) for Hart, it's worth taking the chance.

 

I like Hart, but I'm not averse to them trading him for the right return. However, unless Braun is found innocent, I don't think now's the time to make the trade (unless money makes it an absolute necessity), as an OF of Aoki, Morgan, Gindl for 50 games would not strike fear in the hearts of opponents. If he were to be traded before the season starts, I doubt he would be traded for a "MLB proven" SP, unless it was a trade which included on of our current SP, for which we'd need a huge return.

 

I think we'll wait to see how the first part of the season plays out. If we're not at or near the top of the division we'll see a lot of moves mid-season, with guys like Hart, Greinke, Wolf and Marcum being dangled for youth. If signed, someone like Aoki could help us win this year, and also gives us a relatively inexpensive lead-off hitter for a few seasons, and depth allowing us some flexibility.

 

To some other points,

 

-many knowledgeable people are saying Aoki would be a LF due to arm strength, but how much arm strength does a CF need? Morgan has a weak arm, so how would Aoki compare to Morgan?

-I highly doubt Braun is going to 1B. He's not nearly as bad as some on this site make him out to be. If anything, he'll move to RF, allowing a weaker-armed player (Aoki??) to play LF.

-Gamel is probably going to get a lot of leash at 1B (at least if Melvin has any say in the matter). He has no options left, so they either stick with him and see how he does for the season, or else they give up on him. Since they've now blocked Green and potentially blocked Schafer/Gindl, Gamel is the only real hope of having an impact league minimum bat for the foreseeable future (Lucroy's in the "good for a catcher" club, but isn't going to win any batting titles).

-I don't know how the Japanese stats would translate to MLB, but I would like having a guy who hits LH and can play everyday, makes contact and gets on base at the top of our order. The problem is that if he can't play CF, he would play a position currently occupied by two of our best hitters. It may make sense to trade Hart, but is Aoki good enough to justify trading away a player of Hart's caliber?

-This also shows a limitation of statistical analysis... we will probably never have enough Japanese players in the MLB to allow for reasonable expectations, so unless the system changes, teams really have to rely on their "old school" scouts to make any kind of determination on these players.

[yoshii8]

I've heard conficting reports about his arm, but he's won three gold gloves in CF, and apparantly has great range, so I don't think they'd be hesitant to put him in CF if needed. After reading more about Aoki, I really hope the Brewers sign him.

[jjfanec]

Sign this guy and try to get a prospect, middle infielder or reliever for Nyjer. You still have Gomez if Aoki falls flat on his face

[PrinceEatMeat]

The easiest move if Aoki pans out is to stick him in the platoon in CF and trade Morgan. Pretty simple solution. Not sure what the actual plan is though. There's gotta be some type of plan, or this would all just be a waste of time.

[Funketown]

So the winning bidder has no commitment? Is there anything which would prevent a team from making an outlandish bid with no plans on making a contract offer, solely to avoid having their rival sign a guy like Ichiro? I can just see the Yankees bidding $500 million for some guy to make sure the Red Sox don't sign him.

[brettac1]

So the winning bidder has no commitment? Is there anything which would prevent a team from making an outlandish bid with no plans on making a contract offer, solely to avoid having their rival sign a guy like Ichiro? I can just see the Yankees bidding $500 million for some guy to make sure the Red Sox don't sign him.

Absolutely. That's why I said earlier that I was hoping that that wasn't their goal.

[Raw Biz]

So the winning bidder has no commitment? Is there anything which would prevent a team from making an outlandish bid with no plans on making a contract offer, solely to avoid having their rival sign a guy like Ichiro? I can just see the Yankees bidding $500 million for some guy to make sure the Red Sox don't sign him.

Absolutely. That's why I said earlier that I was hoping that that wasn't their goal.

Actually, I think if a team doesn't sign the guy, he can be re-posted. I'm not positive though but it would make sense to allow Japanese players to actually be able to play for someone.

[trwi7]

I have a hard time believing their goal was to block him from some other team by only submitting a $2.5 million bid. What are the chances they thought they would even win with that bid?

[fondybrewfan]

Would anyone actually want Morgan? Granted he was invaluable to the team last year but any new team would be hesitant to trade for the guy given his history and given that he doesn't walk a lick.

 

I would be all for this signing assuming he looks alright once they bring him over for a workout. Looks like it could be a nice 4th OF and/or a nice 50 game replacement for Braun. So long as he doesn't turn out like the Twins SS this seems like a pretty solid acquisition if it comes to fruition.

[Funketown]

I have a hard time believing their goal was to block him from some other team by only submitting a $2.5 million bid. What are the chances they thought they would even win with that bid?

Oh, I don't think that was their goal. I was just saying that I could see that happening with a guy like Ichiro or Dice-K.

 

I'm betting the Brewers just put in a bid in case nobody went higher, and it turns out they won. Hopefully they can sign the guy on the cheap, as these Japanese stars are often fun to have on your team with the little bit of media circus they tend to bring.

[And That]

If the Brewers don't want to trade Morgan or Gomez, they could always trade the rights to Aoki, or perform a sign-and-trade type deal.

[umphrey]

So the winning bidder has no commitment? Is there anything which would prevent a team from making an outlandish bid with no plans on making a contract offer, solely to avoid having their rival sign a guy like Ichiro? I can just see the Yankees bidding $500 million for some guy to make sure the Red Sox don't sign him.

You can do this but you'll get in trouble with the league if that's what happens. For example MLB will be pretty pissed if the Darvish winner doesn't sign him. It's good PR if the good Japanese players come play here. It's pretty obvious if a team bids a bunch of cash and then only offers a cheap 1 year deal for no good reason.

[TooLiveBrew]

If anyone is familiar with international soccer club player transfers, this is basically the exact same process. But it sounds like people in general aren't familiar. It's really a sensible process for player trades/transfers. The purchasing team has to pay the selling team enough money for it to make sense to move the player, & then the player & buying club have to agree on a contract. And if the purchasing team can't agree on a contract with the player, their bid is refunded. There may be technicalities beyond that, but that's the general idea.

 

I don't think you can assume that MLB wouldn't be happy with a club, sometimes the player is the reason talks break down. I think if talks do break down with Darvish, it'd be on him more than any signing team, just since he's still so young & has expressed a measured approach to this posting process. But I agree that it's great PR for everyone involved for the player to sign a deal.

 

I'll be surprised if Darvish isn't a Yankee relatively soon... just seems like Cashman's style to keep it completely quiet. How much do you think the BoSox are kicking themselves for spending all that money on Lackey now?

[danzig6767]

If the Brewers don't want to trade Morgan or Gomez, they could always trade the rights to Aoki, or perform a sign-and-trade type deal.

I was wondering if there were any restrictions on trading one of these Japanese players after winning the bid and signing the player.

[Hate those Rodents]

Nobody wanted to bid 2.5 million on the guy. What pray-tell, are we planning to get for him before he's played even a minor league game in the states?

[Jarjohm]

Pretty interesting article on Aoki on ESPN's Sweetspot: Brewers might import former 'next Ichiro'

The article discusses an MLB projection for Aoki:

I asked Dan Szymborski of ESPN Insider if he’d forecasted Aoki yet, and he had -- to a neutral park, projected to hit .289/.338/.393. Miller Park isn’t a launching pad, so that’ll do for a place-holding expectation for what Aoki might be able to do in Milwaukee. Good-bye Ichiro, hello Tony Plush.

[jwill535]

Pretty interesting article on Aoki on ESPN's Sweetspot: Brewers might import former 'next Ichiro'

The article discusses an MLB projection for Aoki:

I asked Dan Szymborski of ESPN Insider if he’d forecasted Aoki yet, and he had -- to a neutral park, projected to hit .289/.338/.393. Miller Park isn’t a launching pad, so that’ll do for a place-holding expectation for what Aoki might be able to do in Milwaukee. Good-bye Ichiro, hello Tony Plush.

It what world is Miller Park not a launching pad. He makes it seem like they are expecting Aoki to hit 20 HRs in the 50 games.

[BritInWI]

If anyone is familiar with international soccer club player transfers, this is basically the exact same process. But it sounds like people in general aren't familiar. It's really a sensible process for player trades/transfers. The purchasing team has to pay the selling team enough money for it to make sense to move the player, & then the player & buying club have to agree on a contract. And if the purchasing team can't agree on a contract with the player, their bid is refunded. There may be technicalities beyond that, but that's the general idea.

Well, it's similar. There's no blind bidding process to earn exclusive rights to negotiate with a player. Typically teams holding a player's rights will name the price they want and other teams will either meet the price or counteroffer (or in some cases offer even more than was asked for if a rival club is about to have a bid accepted). Otherwise I see your point but I don't think it fits well into baseball.

 

The biggest problem with that system is that the rich get richer. There are no salary caps. No luxury taxes. No financial help for struggling clubs. Rich industrialists buy big clubs not as investments but as playthings and some spend the sort of money that would make the Yankees seen like paupers. The rest of the clubs end up losing their best players on a regular basis, and then they start plucking the best players from the clubs who are less financially stable (or backed) than they are. Can you imagine that system in baseball? The Yankees, Red Sox etc would be able to buy whomever they wanted, even if they were under contract, and wouldn't even have to give up talent to get them - just cash. In soccer there are always smaller clubs to raid for talent to replace what you lost (perhaps not as good but better than what you have left). In baseball there just aren't enough teams to make that work.

 

Additionally it encourages players and their agents to force a move to a particular team. The agent starts secretly negotiating contracts without the permission of the club who holds his rights (totally against the rules but happens all the time), agrees a contract with another team and then goes back to the player's current club, requests a "transfer" and then insists that his player won't play for the current club any more and won't accept a deal with anyone but the club the agent has already negotiated a deal with - denying, of course, that he's already negotiated a deal with that club. The current club often feels compelled to sell because they don't want a malcontent disrupting team chemistry. This allows the purchasing club to get away with making a lowball offer and paying much less than they should for a player. In many ways this reminds me of how Ken Griffey Jr. screwed the Mariners all those years ago by insisting on going to the Reds. I'm not saying that Griffey or his agent did anything against the rules, but everyone knew he was insisting on going to Cincinnati, including the Reds, so the Reds got a superstar player for way, way less than he should have cost in a trade.

 

My apologies if I took things a little off topic there. I know a fair amount about baseball but I learn much more about it here from the many knowledgeable folks in this forum who know a lot more than I do, and now finally got the chance to talk about something I know a great deal more about than most and I got a bit carried away. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[DHonks]

according to statistics it is not a launching pad.

[And That]

What pray-tell, are we planning to get for him before he's played even a minor league game in the states?

I have no idea. But it is an option.

 

Thanks.

[Hate those Rodents]

I suppose its an option. Sorry for the condescending comment. Don't know where that came from in me. Basically though, I doubt he has any trade value based on the fact we won his posting fee at a low price. Maybe during spring training though. I'd rather trade Nyjer.