Brewers win negotiating rights to Japanese OF Norichika Aoki for $2.5 million. Latest: signs 2-yr deal

[FoxyFoxes]

I think Braun to 1b is more likely than Hart. However as was stated I think you let Aoki and Gamel both play it out and whoever is struggling between the two determines who stays a starter. Brauny would be willing to move I am almost sure of that.

[clancyphile]

If we sign Aoki I will be excited but at the same time I dont trust Japanese players to replicate their numbers. Ichiro seems like the exception. Fukudome might be the best of the rest and he was okay but not great.

I think Aoki will be solid - he drew more walks than strikeouts, which I think portends well for him. That is something that doesn't exactly slump. And if he can rack up 30 doubles and 10-15 homers, and steal 25 bases, he's a very solid addition. A definite upgrade over Gomez, and probably more stable than Morgan. Aoki may be good for .290/.380/.400 with solid defense.

[markedman5]

I doubt braun has any interest in moving to first. Hart has some experience there and is 6'6.

 

Bottom line....its likely that both of them will be in the outfield this year but if anyone moves it will almost assuardly be Hart.

 

I think Braun to 1b is more likely than Hart. However as was stated I think you let Aoki and Gamel both play it out and whoever is struggling between the two determines who stays a starter. Brauny would be willing to move I am almost sure of that.

[GAME05]

nobody talked about anyone moving positions when we signed Kotsay, and i don't see this as a lot different. a potential 50-game ban is a long time, but it's certainly not long enough to start making pretty drastic moves like moving established players to new positions.

 

it's odd the way brewerfan nation fluxuates between "Gamel deserves a shot" to moving someone else to 1B and basically relegating him to yet another year at AAA.

[dadofandrew]

Gamel has no options, FYI. He'll be in the bigs somewhere this year.

[Oldcity]

So it turns out this isn't official yet. I thought it seemed fishy. Maybe they didn't get him after all.

[BritInWI]

So it turns out this isn't official yet. I thought it seemed fishy. Maybe they didn't get him after all.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/135835153.html

 

I have no idea how one team's proposal can be revealed if the blind bidding isn't complete...?

[dadofandrew]

I think Rosiak is incorrect. I think he's confused, as I don't think any bids are opened until it's done.

[DHonks]

we may have high bid. They just may not have accepted the bid yet

[Raw Biz]

we may have high bid. They just may not have accepted the bid yet

That's gotta be the case. If teams could still bid, they would know what the Brewer's bid was and just bid higher.

[Roderick]

I doubt braun has any interest in moving to first. Hart has some experience there and is 6'6.

I very much doubt it also, but now may be the time for the team to move Braun (if they feel that is the team's best long-term interest) as he won't have very much "leverage" after being suspended for 50 games.

[Patrick425]

we may have high bid. They just may not have accepted the bid yet

That's gotta be the case. If teams could still bid, they would know what the Brewer's bid was and just bid higher.

Not sure about that. How reliable is the Japanese source that first reported this? Sounds to me like news coming from there is not always reliable. Also, as late as November, someone had projected the winning bid to be $10 million. I would be surprised if it dropped all the way down to $2.5 million. My guess is that the Brewers will be outbid by someone.

 

I doubt braun has any interest in moving to first. Hart has some experience there and is 6'6.

I very much doubt it also, but now may be the time for the team to move Braun (if they feel that is the team's best long-term interest) as he won't have very much "leverage" after being suspended for 50 games.

 

I really don't think Braun will lose any "leverage" with the Brewers. I think people are way overstating the effect of a possible 50 game suspension on Braun's future. Geez, some people are even talking about trading him? Really?

 

[1e Corbeau]

we may have high bid. They just may not have accepted the bid yet

 

Rosiak seems to be the only one reporting this. I'm guessing he's right, though on a meaningless technicality. From reading the Darvish news this morning, it appears that the process is:

• NPB team posts player for bid;
• bids are places by MLB teams;
• bid period closes;
• NPB team decides if it will accept high bid;
• NPB team informs MLB Commissioner's Office of acceptance/declination of bid;
• MLB team is informed of decision.

 

Sometimes, the name of MLB team and/or bid amount is leaked before the official declaration is made from NPB team to MLB offices. That hasn't been the case with Darvish, but it appears to be the case with Aoki. Yakult has released that the Brewers have won with a $2.5M bid from Milwaukee and they're accepting the bid, giving Milwaukee 30-days from when they're notified by the Commissioner's Office to negotiate with Aoki/Balelo.

 

Japan Times: Swallows accept high bid for Aoki

WaPo: Milwaukee Brewers win right to negotiate with Japanese outfielder Norichika Aoki

 

Safe to say, I think, the Brewers have won the bid process, and Yakult is accepting. The Brewers are just waiting for formal notification from the Commissioner's Office in order to begin the 30-day negotiating window.

 

It'll be interesting to see how the Brewers value/evaluate Aoki, though I imagine DM et al. will be typically cryptic and opaque with public comments on how they view Aoki during the negotiating process. As far as signing, I think it's a good thing that Braun's agent is representing Aoki. It'd be great is Aoki's fringe-average arm (per Wikipedia and posts in this thread) could play in CF, as it sounds like his range and instincts are top-notch. His LH BA skills (not necessarily OBP, as that appears somewhat driven by his BA) would be a great asset sandwiched in the 2-hole between Weeks and Braun, especially with Rickie's speed. He sprays the ball to all fields and is adept at putting it on the ground, especially the left side.

[JohnBriggs12]

What's interesting about this is that Melvin recently commented that they are over budget already. Assuming the bid has been accepted, it's probably going to take a 3 year deal between $12 and $15 million to sign him. That's a relative bargain if he proves to be a starting quality player, especially in CF but they may look to clear some salary somewhere.. I have to think Melvin has a pretty enticing offer on the table for Hart and this is what prompted this move more than Braun's possible suspension.. Sure they could move Morgan also, but from a lineup construction viewpoint, Aoki leading off with Morgan batting 2nd, that's potentially two pretty good table setters followed by a middle of the order of Braun, Ramirez, Gamel and Weeks. Hart could be the odd man out in that scenario.

[Patrick425]

JohnBriggs12[/b]]What's interesting about this is that Melvin recently commented that they are over budget already. Assuming the bid has been accepted, it's probably going to take a 3 year deal between $12 and $15 million to sign him. That's a relative bargain if he proves to be a starting quality player, especially in CF but they may look to clear some salary somewhere.. I have to think Melvin has a pretty enticing offer on the table for Hart and this is what prompted this move more than Braun's possible suspension.. Sure they could move Morgan also, but from a lineup construction viewpoint, Aoki leading off with Morgan batting 2nd, that's potentially two pretty good table setters followed by a middle of the order of Braun, Ramirez, Gamel and Weeks. Hart could be the odd man out in that scenario.

If that's true, that would be putting a lot of faith in "unproven" talent. We can debate about what "unproven" means, but to me it means if you have not done anything to prove yourself at the MLB level, then you are "unproven". I really don't care what you have done in the minors or in the Japanese league.

[CheezWizHed]

There are only a few teams that can afford the luxary of filling every spot the roster with "proven" players. The Brewers aren't one of them.

[monty57]

I doubt that the best hitter coming over from Japan would sign with a team that was looking at using him in the "Kotsay role." If he signs, there will probably be some type of guarantee that he'll be starting (maybe not binding, but at least an informal promise). That said, he should be assured of 50 games in LF to start the season if Braun is suspended. If not for the suspension, the easy answer would be to trade Morgan, or (as Briggs mentioned above) trade Hart for a big haul. With the suspension, and with hopes of the playoffs, I don't know if we trade someone right away... Aoki, Morgan/Gomez, Hart could keep us afloat for 50 games.

 

Going forward, a lot can happen in the time Braun may be suspended, such as an injury or a really good or bad start by the team, which could impact what we do from there. If someone gets hurt, we need the depth. If we get off to a really good start, we have more talent on the bench when Braun's back. If we get off to a terrible start, we could look at trading Hart while he has 1.5 years of control left and would bring back a lot in terms of prospects. If no one is hurt and we're somewhere in the middle record-wise, then the best bat plays between Aoki, Morgan and Gomez, but I'd guess Melvin would be working the phone to put together the best trade he could for (in likely order) Morgan, Gomez, Hart and Aoki.

 

As for the price tag, the posting fee would be essentially what we won't be paying Braun during the suspension, but even with that, we have to be getting pretty close to tapped out financially, so it will be interesting to see what Melvin does.

[Patrick425]

CheezWizHed[/b]]There are only a few teams that can afford the luxary of filling every spot the roster with "proven" players. The Brewers aren't one of them.

Believe me, I completely understand that. However, Hart is a "bargain" at his current contract and the type of player a small/mid-market team like the Brewers should value. Depending on what they would get for Hart (and I also realize that this is a big part of the puzzle), I'm not sure replacing a "underpaid" proven player with an unproven player from Japan would be the wisest of decisions.

 

[CheezWizHed]

I've generally been a big Hart supporter over his career, but he isn't untradeable either. He is 30 this year and has a decent contract numbers for the next two years ($9M and $10M). There is no reason we NEED to trade him, but if it betters the team overall, I don't see a problem.

 

Braun's possible suspension has thrown a few wrinkles the Brewer's direction this year. If not for that, I doubt you even consider trading Hart, given they would have a decent shot at winning the Central again.

[reillymcshane]

Brewers officially win the bid:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors...s-to-norichika-aoki.html

[JohnBriggs12]

monty57: "I doubt the best hitter from Japan would sign with a team that was looking at him in the "Kotsay role".

 

Exactly. Nor would the Brewers who, according to Melvin were over budget already, invest that much in a guy they look at as a bench player. Even if Aoki is no better the 2nd coming of Fukudome, if Melvin has a great offer (starting pitcher) for Hart, it's worth taking the chance.

[reillymcshane]

I like how rosenthal said the Brewers will work Aoki out in Arizona before deciding if we should try and sign him.

 

I just shows they didn't really know what they were getting. I bet they never expected to win the bidding.

[JohnBriggs12]

I like how rosenthal said the Brewers will work Aoki out in Arizona before deciding if we should try and sign him.

 

I just shows they didn't really know what they were getting. I bet they never expected to win the bidding.

To borrow a poker term, now they are pot committed. I can't imagine them throwing away $2.5 million and never making an offer.

[jjfanec]

I like how rosenthal said the Brewers will work Aoki out in Arizona before deciding if we should try and sign him.

 

I just shows they didn't really know what they were getting. I bet they never expected to win the bidding.

To borrow a poker term, now they are pot committed. I can't imagine them throwing away $2.5 million and never making an offer.

According to Tom H, the Japanese club would give the Brewers the money back if they dont sign Aoki.

If they do win, the Brewers will then have a 30-day window in which to negotiate with Aoki. If the two sides can't come to an agreement, then Yakult would have to return Milwaukee's $2.5 million.

 

[brettac1]

Someone should remind Rosiak of the great Takahito Nomura when he says they haven't signed a Japanese player before.