Brewers win negotiating rights to Japanese OF Norichika Aoki for $2.5 million. Latest: signs 2-yr deal

[BritInWI]

As some have noted, let's really limit the Ichiro comparisons. However, a seeming bargain thus far...Doug's probably in shock he won out. But at least he was in on the dance, nice.

I think this posting fee was more than the Yankees paid to talk to Nakajima. I strongly suspect that Melvin didn't bother bidding on Nakajima, in spite of the need for a SS,

thinking the bidding would be way too high. But when he saw what the Yankees won with decided to give it a try.

 

There may be some real caution about Japanese players right now in general. There have been some high posting fees paid but the only one who has been worth the fee and

salary paid - IMHO - is Ichiro.

[StearnsFTW]

I'd be all for trading Nyjer. His value will never be this high and I think his shenanigans may get old very quickly. He already started getting borderline obnoxious last year playing the role of Plush instead of being himself like he was early in the year.

 

 

 

I agree The only place we differ is "borderline". I'd replace that with "completely".

[JJHardy7]

If Aoki plays well in the first 50 games and whoever is at 1B struggles, any worry moving Braun to 1B? Hart to 1B and Braun to RF?

 

If the reports are true and his arm limits him to LF, not sure we want to remove plus defenders (Gomez and Morgan) for a guy with a below average arm. Maybe the plan is to move Braun to 1B right now?

[Funketown]

If Aoki plays well in the first 50 games and whoever is at 1B struggles, any worry moving Braun to 1B? Hart to 1B and Braun to RF?

 

If the reports are true and his arm limits him to LF, not sure we want to remove plus defenders (Gomez and Morgan) for a guy with a below average arm. Maybe the plan is to move Braun to 1B right now?

I've been all for moving Braun to 1B for a couple of years now, and I think that if Aoki signs for 3 years or so this would be the perfect time to do it. From everything I've read, Aoki has pretty good range in the outfield, but just has a very weak arm. Aoki-Mormez-Hart in the outfield with Braun at 1B looks pretty good to me. I'm curious to know what some projections are for Aoki, but without thinking too hard I'd guess he profiles as something like a .285/.375/.400 type of guy (maybe that's generous), which would look really good in the 2-hole. If Aoki is as productive as Fukudome at the plate (probably less power) and can play a solid LF, a deal of something like 3 years/$10 million would be a bargain. I have absolutely no clue what Aoki will ask for in negotiations, or what he was getting paid in Japan. Does anybody have an idea about either of these things?

 

Plush-Aoki-Braun-Hart-Weeks-Aram-Lucroy-Gonzalez-Gallardo looks pretty darn good to me.

[reillymcshane]

Wouldn't this player need a year or so in AAA first, or is he actually ready for MLB right now? A .298 batting average in Japan equals what in MLB? .258?

 

 

But he hit .339 over 2006-2010 - before the new baseball brought down averages in Japan. I'm not sure where you get a MLE calculator for players in japan, but it should be different for using stats from the 2011 season. Maybe the .298 = .258 is calculated with the new reality in Japanese baseball. Otherwise, we should probably look at him moe as a .339 hitter and convert it from there.

[JET15]

I'd be all for trading Nyjer. His value will never be this high and I think his shenanigans may get old very quickly. He already started getting borderline obnoxious last year playing the role of Plush instead of being himself like he was early in the year.

I second that

[DuWayne Steurer]

Yeah.........Morgan had some great moments last year, not the least of which was the walkoff hit against the D-Backs.

 

However, given Morgan's age, history (both statistically and personally), I think attempting to re-cash in on the Plush craze has the potential to backfire on the Brewers.

 

I'm not saying that Morgan will implode, but if the possibility is there that he's overvalued because of some of his highlight reel stuff last year, I'd say go for cashing him in if there's a GM out there willing to overpay. Morgan's walk rate took an alarming dip last year, and if he hits .270, and walks at the same rate, he's going to be an abysmal offensive contributer.

[Invader3K]

The Brewers aren't going to move Hart to 1B. Melvin shot that idea down a little while ago. Plus there's the whole issue of that's where Mat Gamel is supposed to start. They aren't going to start shuffling guys around mid-season, either.

[PepsiFanClubAlum]

If Braun is out there are also 9 inter squad road games between games 50 and 72, so we will need a DH - I could see him playing in 60 - 65 of the first 72 games then we can trade Aoki, Morgan or Gomez for something we need or move Hart to first, if Gamel struggles.

[logan82]

I know Gomez missed a lot of time last year, but other than that he hasn't really been injury prone. And Morgan has done nothing in Milwaukee to make anyone think he'll wear out his welcome. Quite the opposite in fact.

That really isn't true. He had incidents in St. Louis and San Francisco(I think it was San Francisco) last year and we were constantly hearing how he talked nonstop to the point where they were keeping their distance at times. That doesn't mean he will wear out his welcome but I think it indicates things could go very differently if we are not doing as well as we did last year.

[yoshii8]

I like it, and hope the Brewers can work out a deal w/ Aoki. I think this would help cover up for the loss of Braun, and also give us an outstanding 4th outfielder after he comes back. It also gives us flexibility to trade Morgan or Gomez if he becomes so good that we can't take him out of our lineup.

[Flood Pants]

I'd really miss Nyjer Morgan if he were traded. I disagree that he became too obnoxious - I think he was a unique, fun presence for this team and he can continue to be that way. I'd also have no problem playing Aoki in CF and using Plush/Gomez as defensive replacements in late innings. He wouldn't be the first CF for a contending team with a sub-par throwing arm (Johnny Damon, for example).

[jjfanec]

If we sign Aoki I will be excited but at the same time I dont trust Japanese players to replicate their numbers. Ichiro seems like the exception. Fukudome might be the best of the rest and he was okay but not great.

[Point Beer Is Best]

I like the move, depending on the contract terms. The $2.5 million for the posting fee isn't much of a gamble since 1st round draft picks are huge gambles and they get that all the time. Selfishly I wish they could have hung onto Saito, since the MLB network could have come up with a sweet reality show starring their interpreters.

[RyDogg66]

I think they get the posting fee back if they dont sign him.

[Rob]

I think that this is a tremendous get if they sign him. I really don't care if Morgan wears out his welcome. What I do care about is that last year was a career year and he is unlikely to repeat it. With Braun missing 50 games, to get a good of like this guy becomes almost a must.

[dadofandrew]

Nyjer Morgan, versus RHP:

 

2007/8--.355/.400

2009----.394/.435

2010----.333/.337

2011----.370/.439

 

Actually, Nyjer has been remarkably consistent, though he had a down year in '10. The Crew was just intelligent enough to minimize his PA's against LHP, who he has never hit.

 

Personally, I assume Doug saw a guy who'd fit in nicely on the bench and looked to be undervalued. I wish an infielder of similar merit became available.

[craigharmann]

On ESPN's headline, they have him listed as a CF. Is that ESPN and their normal genius again, or is he being looked at as a possible CF?

[theavrock]

He played CF in Japan, but projects as a LF in MLB because of fringe arm strength. Very quick and takes good routes to the ball, but the arm strength isn't there.

[brewmann04]

I f he can help then i am all for it still hope Melvin can add a 1st baseman and another bullpen arm as we get closer to spring training.

[ilovebeer]

I would not take anything that the 4 letter network has to say.

[FoxyFoxes]

Any chance if Gamel flames out Hart/Braun could be moved to 1st base? I think the latter being moved to 1st would prolong his career.

lf aoki

rf hart

1b braun

3b ramirez

2b weeks

c lucroy

cf morgan/gomez

ss gonzalez

Or put hart behind weeks and let the cf platoon hit 2nd. i really wish this is what melvin would do and given Gamels lack of prooveness he better have a quick start next season assuming braun isn't playing 50 games.

[Raw Biz]

As much as I like winning the posting, let's not get ahead of ourselves here. First, they still have to sign him. And (I presume) nobody here has actually ever seen the guy play (besides maybe a youtube video). I just think it's funny people are already assuming he will be a starter and some even want to move guys like Braun/Hart to a different position and bench a guy like Gamel who has dominated the minors and hasn't yet been given a chance to prove himself in MLB.

IF Braun is suspended, I would consider starting him in LF. But I think this talk about moving Braun/Hart to 1B if Gamel struggles in 50 games is premature. People say Gamel hasn't proven himself yet but neither has this guy (at least not in MLB).

[Bernman23]

I think it'll be a great move if they can acquire him at a reasonable rate after negotiations. He gives you hope to absorb some of Braun's loss from an offensive standpoint for the first 50 games, and subsequently provides the team with a lot of flexibility. It looks like he can hit both righties and lefties about equally as well because of his proclivity to go the other way. That means he could fill Gomez' role even though he's a lefty. If either of the position player rookies cannot make the adjustment to the big leagues Hart could be moved to first with Aoki manning one of the outfield positions. If they can but Peralta or Loe struggles they could use one of their outfielders not named Braun in a trade to bolster the bullpen or rotation. There are a lot of possibilities.

 

I've been usually one to shout about how overrated of a general manager Doug Melvin is and how he had Jack Z to thank for his rep, but this offseason he's doing a great job under some tough circumstances, IMO. And kudos to Mark as well for providing him the financial support to succeed at his job.

[Eye Black]

If Braun is out there are also 9 inter squad road games between games 50 and 72, so we will need a DH - I could see him playing in 60 - 65 of the first 72 games then we can trade Aoki, Morgan or Gomez for something we need or move Hart to first, if Gamel struggles.

There are actually 12 Interleague games in the first 22 games Braun will be back (Royals, Twins, Blue Jays, White Sox). I agree that after the first 80 games you would have a pretty good idea about which direction to go in the OF and at 1B.

Also, I agree that Ichiro comparisons are more silly than practical. That being said I still smile when I look at Ichiro's stats the year he turned 30 years old (2004). That season he finished with 262 hits and posted a .372 BA and a .414 OBP.

*EDIT: Sorry, Blue Jays series is at HOME.