Brewers win negotiating rights to Japanese OF Norichika Aoki for $2.5 million. Latest: signs 2-yr deal

[RockCoCougars]

I'm not sold on this team being as good or better than last year. Not even mentioning the fact that you are losing Prince and Braun for a third of the season, I'm not sure that the pitching staff can be any better than they were. I am fully expecting Marcum and Wolf to regress, and wouldn't be surprised to see Narveson do the same. As for Gallardo and Greinke, I'm not sure how they can get much better. I keep reading about the '2009 Greinke', but the fact is he was very good last year and a victim of some bad luck...he had a very good WHIP, and struck out 4 times as many as he walked. An injury to one of these two will likely sink the team. The same goes with the bullpen. Outside of Loe's awful May and June, I can't ever recall a better Brewers pen. All those guys were lights out. This year, some of them are gone, and it's highly unlikely that the guys are back will all pitch as well.

 

Bottom line, I see this team somewhere in the mid-80 win range as it stands right now. They have gotten quite a bit older this off-season, so I would not be shocked to see even more of a decline with a key injury or two.

[Raw Biz]

I'm not sold on this team being as good or better than last year. Not even mentioning the fact that you are losing Prince and Braun for a third of the season, I'm not sure that the pitching staff can be any better than they were. I am fully expecting Marcum and Wolf to regress, and wouldn't be surprised to see Narveson do the same. As for Gallardo and Greinke, I'm not sure how they can get much better. I keep reading about the '2009 Greinke', but the fact is he was very good last year and a victim of some bad luck...he had a very good WHIP, and struck out 4 times as many as he walked. An injury to one of these two will likely sink the team. The same goes with the bullpen. Outside of Loe's awful May and June, I can't ever recall a better Brewers pen. All those guys were lights out. This year, some of them are gone, and it's highly unlikely that the guys are back will all pitch as well.

 

Bottom line, I see this team somewhere in the mid-80 win range as it stands right now. They have gotten quite a bit older this off-season, so I would not be shocked to see even more of a decline with a key injury or two.

I would say mid-80s to upper 80s. However, I recall most people last year saying mid 80s to upper 80s and they won 96. I don't really think there's much point in trying to project wins (other than for fun) because there is so much unpredictability over a 162 game season. Injuries could happen, guys could improve/regress, players could be added/subtracted, etc. Like you said, as it stands now, I would probably agree mid 80s but it wouldn't shock me if they were anywhere from 75-95 since so much can happen.

[TooLiveBrew]

Adam McCalvy blog post from today on the Aoki contract:

 

The Associated Press today reported the details of outfielder Norichika Aoki’s incentive-rich contract with the Brewers, and it appears he will cost the team anywhere from $5 million to just under $11 million before it’s all said and done.

 

The Brewers paid $2.5 million to the Tokyo Yakult Swallows just to negotiate with Aoki, who agreed on Jan. 17 to a two-year contract with an option that guarantees him another $2.5 million. Aoki will get base salaries of $1 million in 2012 and $1.25 million in 2013, and the AP reported that the Brewers hold a $1.5 million option for 2014 with a $250,000 buyout.

 

According to the AP, Aoki can make $1,675,000 in performance bonuses during the 2012 season, $837,500 in 2013 and $1,087,500 in 2014 if the option is exercised. The bonuses are based on games played from 70-150 and starts from 100-140. Half of the performance bonuses earned this year would be added to his base salary in 2013.

 

If that makes your head spin, here is the AP’s bottom line: Aoki would earn $8,187,500 — remember, that doesn’t include the posting fee that went to his Japanese team — if he essentially becomes a starting Brewers outfielder for the next three seasons — i.e., his 2014 option is exercised and he has at least 140 starts and 150 games played per year.

[JohnBriggs12]

HiandTight: "A full season with Gamel at 1B, Gonzales at SS, and ARam at 3B is significant"

 

To quote the Wilson Staff commericials: Seriously?

 

Gamel has all of 107 games played at 1B as a pro and in those 107 games his fielding percentage (.987) is worse than Fielder's career .992. He may eventually be fine there but he's still learning.

 

The difference career wise between A-Ram and McGehee is microscopic. Both are slightly below average. Ramirez isn't going to get better at 33.

 

Gonzalez is an upgrade but not by much. He may save 10 runs defensively, but he'll cost them close to that by not getting the bat on the ball with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out.

 

The infield defense wasn't that big an issue last year. When Wolf is bad, they hit the ball where there are no defenders. When he's good he gets K's and popups. Gallardo and Greinke get most of their outs on strikeouts and flyballs. Greinke gave up an extrodinary amount of extra base hits. With the exception of Loe, nobody on the staff relies on sinkers.

[umphrey]

Whoa the career difference between Aramis and McGehee is microscopic? One of them has OPSed over 800 7 of the past 8 years, the other has done it twice, once in half a season, and last year was the worst offensive 3B in the league by a wide margin. And Prince was probably the worst defensive 1B in baseball. He has the reach of a tree stump and the range of a walrus.

[jjfanec]

Adam McCalvy blog post from today on the Aoki contract:

 

The Associated Press today reported the details of outfielder Norichika Aoki’s incentive-rich contract with the Brewers, and it appears he will cost the team anywhere from $5 million to just under $11 million before it’s all said and done.

 

The Brewers paid $2.5 million to the Tokyo Yakult Swallows just to negotiate with Aoki, who agreed on Jan. 17 to a two-year contract with an option that guarantees him another $2.5 million. Aoki will get base salaries of $1 million in 2012 and $1.25 million in 2013, and the AP reported that the Brewers hold a $1.5 million option for 2014 with a $250,000 buyout.

 

According to the AP, Aoki can make $1,675,000 in performance bonuses during the 2012 season, $837,500 in 2013 and $1,087,500 in 2014 if the option is exercised. The bonuses are based on games played from 70-150 and starts from 100-140. Half of the performance bonuses earned this year would be added to his base salary in 2013.

 

If that makes your head spin, here is the AP’s bottom line: Aoki would earn $8,187,500 — remember, that doesn’t include the posting fee that went to his Japanese team — if he essentially becomes a starting Brewers outfielder for the next three seasons — i.e., his 2014 option is exercised and he has at least 140 starts and 150 games played per year.

I dont see anyway he starts in enough game for that option to kick in. I like the structure of the deal because if he flames out it doesnt cost the Brewers much and if he is really good and earns a starting spot he is a good value.

[Madtown343]

Gamel has all of 107 games played at 1B as a pro and in those 107 games his fielding percentage (.987) is worse than Fielder's career .992. He may eventually be fine there but he's still learning.

 

The difference career wise between A-Ram and McGehee is microscopic. Both are slightly below average. Ramirez isn't going to get better at 33.

 

Gonzalez is an upgrade but not by much. He may save 10 runs defensively, but he'll cost them close to that by not getting the bat on the ball with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out.

 

The infield defense wasn't that big an issue last year. When Wolf is bad, they hit the ball where there are no defenders. When he's good he gets K's and popups. Gallardo and Greinke get most of their outs on strikeouts and flyballs. Greinke gave up an extrodinary amount of extra base hits. With the exception of Loe, nobody on the staff relies on sinkers.

Briggs... You point on fielding percentage as the lone statistic for why Gamel wont be an upgrade over Fielder. That is really not nearly as important as if Gamel saves other players errors with added athleticism and has far better range based on that athleticism. Gamel had excellent hands as a 3B and very good range. His arm cost him at times, but Prince's throwing was down right awful. I would think Gamel will walk in and be better than Fielder overall if you use a metric other than fielding % and he will only improve with time.

 

Ramirez and Casey... Not really much defense their for either player. I know from watching the Cubs play Aramis seemed to make wild throws that D-Lee usually bailed him out on, but will Gamel have the ability to help him like his previous 1B did? I think this may be one of the biggest questions, but Prince would not have been much better if at all.

 

You then say Gonzo will be better, but his impact will be negated by Gonzo's higher K rates, but that runner on 3rd and less than two outs doesnt score if the batter swings at the first pitch and puts it into play for a double play. As we grew so accustomed to with Yuni. A strikeout is a wasted AB, but I would take that, and Lucroy with AB with two outs over the first pitch DP that Yuni seemed highly prone to. (Gonzo did actually ground into more DP 19 than Yuni 16, but it was one outlining season)

 

I think a healthy Weeks also is a bonus at 2B over the unhealthy version we had down the stretch run of games and into the playoffs as well. He spins a DP as well as anyone other than maybe Robbie Cano.

 

Overall I think IF defense will be noticeably improved and that will allow pitchers like Gallardo, and Grienke to have confidence in throwing strikes down in the zone to induce ground balls and keep pitch counts in control.

 

Just my observation.

[DHonks]

Gamel will be better than Fielder at 1st base because he won't be a liability. Prince added at least 5 errors on to everyone else's totals, perhaps more. His error total likely should have been 2-3 times higher, but official scorers blame the other fielders when the throw is anything but perfect. Every year we also see several players get picked off by pitchers, only to see Prince's throw to 2nd miss , allowing the runner to advance. He also has at least 20 batted balls go under his glove, while only a handful are ruled errors. We were spoiled to watch Sexson play defense every day. Fielder could play DH and still manage to make errors

[jjfanec]

DHonks]Gamel will be better than Fielder at 1st base because he won't be a liability. Prince added at least 5 errors on to everyone else's totals, perhaps more. His error total likely should have been 2-3 times higher, but official scorers blame the other fielders when the throw is anything but perfect. Every year we also see several players get picked off by pitchers, only to see Prince's throw to 2nd miss , allowing the runner to advance. He also has at least 20 batted balls go under his glove, while only a handful are ruled errors. We were spoiled to watch Sexson play defense every day. Fielder could play DH and still manage to make errors

+1. Anyone using fielding percentage to defend Fielder doesn't watch him at first. His range is terrible, his picking ability is terrible, his arm is terrible. He made a couple nice plays in the post-season but he is a really bad first basemen.

[Team Canada]

How did a thread about Aoki turn into an infield debate?

[Ennder]

Gonzalez is an upgrade but not by much. He may save 10 runs defensively, but he'll cost them close to that by not getting the bat on the ball with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out.

 

I hope you realize how much of a gross exaggeration this is. There is no way that Yuni came close to giving us 10 extra runs just from not striking out very much. Gonzalez is about the same as Yuni offensively and putting the ball in play for an out has almost no added value over a strike out. In a few situations it is better but in other situations it is actually worse and it mostly evens out over a full season.

 

But yeah I said I think the pitching could be a little better and I meant a little better, marginal improvements by a few guys and obviously if someone has a major injury it could be worse too. That more or less goes without saying. I think Greinke, Narveson and Gallardo could all improve this year and Wolf and Marcum will probably get slightly worse, net effect is a marginal improvement.

[RightFieldCoder]

Gamel will be better than Fielder at 1st base because he won't be a liability. Prince added at least 5 errors on to everyone else's totals, perhaps more. His error total likely should have been 2-3 times higher, but official scorers blame the other fielders when the throw is anything but perfect. Every year we also see several players get picked off by pitchers, only to see Prince's throw to 2nd miss , allowing the runner to advance. He also has at least 20 batted balls go under his glove, while only a handful are ruled errors. We were spoiled to watch Sexson play defense every day. Fielder could play DH and still manage to make errors

+1. Anyone using fielding percentage to defend Fielder doesn't watch him at first. His range is terrible, his picking ability is terrible, his arm is terrible. He made a couple nice plays in the post-season but he is a really bad first basemen.

This. If the ball bounces in front of him and he doesn't scoop it, it's an error on the guy who threw it. If the ball is two feet off the base and he has to take his foot off because he has the range of a T-Rex, it's an error on the guy who threw it. If he uses his flab to stop the ball and soft tosses it home too late to stop the runner from scoring, it's a literal Fielder's Choice and not an error. If he does a belly flop onto the dirt and doesn't land on the ball as it goes into the outfield, it counts as a hit. You are also including in Gamel's numbers his first experience at 1B when he was learning the position. Prince wasn't converted to 1B and had to learn it a year before coming up.

[Madtown343]

Ennder wrote:

 

But yeah I said I think the pitching could be a little better and I meant a little better, marginal improvements by a few guys and obviously if someone has a major injury it could be worse too. That more or less goes without saying. I think Greinke, Narveson and Gallardo could all improve this year and Wolf and Marcum will probably get slightly worse, net effect is a marginal improvement.

I would agree that Grienke and Gallardo are due for improvements, only I think they have a chance on being significant. If Yo gets off to a better start and pitches more like the guy down the stretch he would be a Cy Young candidate. As for Zach I feel like his ERA has to start being reflective of his insanely good peripheral stats, why not this season... and he will hopefully stay of the bball court in spring.

 

I would agree Marcum could see a slight regression, and Wolf almost has to see some regression. Narveson I think is what he is, he will likely perform similar and for a 5th starter that is fine by me.

 

The aspect that I think we are overlooking is that if a minor injury to a top arm, or a significant injury to a bottom of the rotation arm occurs, I think the team has two options in Peralta, and Fiers that will be major league ready this year. I actually thought the team should have possibly tried to shop Wolf or Marcum in an attempt to clear 6-10M and allow Peralta a shot to beat out Estrada in camp, and if not in camp after a few more starts at AAA. The Reds have proven that going with the young arm can prove to be effective if the prospect can handle it. I believe that after we considered Peralta as a possibility in 2011 and he went out and had the season he did, how can he not be considered a possibility if he blows us away this spring?

 

In other words I think it could be significantly improved by better IF and OF defense. (Aoki>Kotsay, Gomez healthy) Grienke and Gallardo improving, Marcum and Wolf still posting ERA's at or below 4, and Narveson, Peralta, Fiers, and in a sense Estrada providing us with pretty decent depth if a pitcher does miss some time.

[thebruce44]

How did a thread about Aoki turn into an infield debate?

Because 99% of the posters here are going to jump to argue with a post like this:

http://brewersfandemonium.yuku.com/sreply/797238/Brewers-win-negotiating-rights--Japanese--Norichika-Aoki--2-

[HiAndTight]

HiandTight: "A full season with Gamel at 1B, Gonzales at SS, and ARam at 3B is significant"

 

To quote the Wilson Staff commericials: Seriously?

 

Gamel has all of 107 games played at 1B as a pro and in those 107 games his fielding percentage (.987) is worse than Fielder's career .992. He may eventually be fine there but he's still learning.

 

The difference career wise between A-Ram and McGehee is microscopic. Both are slightly below average. Ramirez isn't going to get better at 33.

 

Gonzalez is an upgrade but not by much. He may save 10 runs defensively, but he'll cost them close to that by not getting the bat on the ball with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out.

 

The infield defense wasn't that big an issue last year. When Wolf is bad, they hit the ball where there are no defenders. When he's good he gets K's and popups. Gallardo and Greinke get most of their outs on strikeouts and flyballs. Greinke gave up an extrodinary amount of extra base hits. With the exception of Loe, nobody on the staff relies on sinkers.

I'm kinda at a loss how to respond when someone starts out mocking me and then goes on to cite fielding pct at 1st base no less, and then decides to claim that our IF defense wasn't a problem last year.

 

This AFTER arguing that the difference between Aram and McGehee is miniscule.

 

Some of the more ridiculous things I've read in quite some time.

[CheezWizHed]

The difference career wise between A-Ram and McGehee is microscopic. Both are slightly below average.

 

I'm pretty certain JB was speaking about defense here. I can't imagine anyone trying to compare the two on the whole (offense and defense) as the same player.

 

But I still don't see the point of the argument. Its not like football where you have dedicated offensive and dedicated defensive players. A players worth for baseball is always combined:

 

Defensively:

ARAM - McGehee - Lets call it a tie

Gonzalez - Yuni - Here we have a clear upgrade.

Gamel - Fielder - I'll call this a tie for the sake of the argument. But I think we can also say that Gamel has potential to be better and much better.

 

Offensively:

ARAM - McGehee - Career OPS: 842 vs 746 (note that ARAM beat that last year, Casey did not)

Gonzalez - Yuni - 690 vs 682 - I'm going to call that a wash, despite YB's great ability for sac flies.

Gamel - Fielder - 800 vs 929 - No, that isn't Gamel's career numbers. But I think its a fairly safe prediction. His career numbers present too small of a sample anyway.

 

Average OPS is 777 vs. 817.

 

Yes, we downgraded our offense. Do doubt about that. But improving our defense, especially at shortstop does balance that some. If Gamel does improve on defense at 1B, we probably end up with as much production one the whole as those three spots last year.

 

None of that can predict what will happen this year (people having off years, new players in the club house, injuries, career years, etc...). But I think its reasonable to say that for losing a player of Prince Fielder's caliber (or caliper if you want to bring his waist into it), our team as a whole hasn't suffered a significant drop off like some want to predict. We might not win 96 games this year, but I don't think its a stretch to say we should be in contention for the NL Central again.

[clancyphile]

Problem I see is a lot more IBBs to Braun. Not to mention, there's no left to force an opposing team to take out a righty. The protection just ain't there for Ryan.

 

Losing Prince is a huge blow to the team. I'd rather have had Prince's .929 OPS.

[dadofandrew]

Protection is mostly myth. Prince had a terrific year with McGehee struggling behind him for most of it. Braun will take more walks and possibly hit for less power, but there has never been a player so good that having a 1.000 OBP hurts the team offensively. That's why the IBB is rarely good strategy, unless the extra run(s) do not matter (already behind 5-3, 8th inning, it makes little difference if you give up a run or three).

[Ennder]

Problem I see is a lot more IBBs to Braun. Not to mention, there's no left to force an opposing team to take out a righty. The protection just ain't there for Ryan.

 

Losing Prince is a huge blow to the team. I'd rather have had Prince's .929 OPS.

Aramis will provide plenty of protection, the whole protection thing only really matters when you have a really weak player hitting behind you. Gamel has to step up to give us a power LH bat though or that could be a bit of an issue.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Al beat me to the punch. Lineup 'protection' is an overblown myth.

[jerichoholicninja]

Al beat me to the punch. Lineup 'protection' is an overblown myth.

I agree over the whole season it is a myth, but just last year how many times was Prince intentionally walked in a situation to put the team ahead or tie only to have Casey come up and make outs? At the end of the year all the free passes make the OPS look good but when it comes to winning a game I don't think anyone would rather have Prince on first than at the plate.

[jjfanec]

Al beat me to the punch. Lineup 'protection' is an overblown myth.

I agree over the whole season it is a myth, but just last year how many times was Prince intentionally walked in a situation to put the team ahead or tie only to have Casey come up and make outs? At the end of the year all the free passes make the OPS look good but when it comes to winning a game I don't think anyone would rather have Prince on first than at the plate.

But in this argument Aramis Ramirez is not Casey from last year. People aren't going to consistently walk Braun if Ramirez has a similar year to last, especially considering with Weeks and Hart in front of Braun there will be guys already on base with Braun.

[Ennder]

Al beat me to the punch. Lineup 'protection' is an overblown myth.

I agree over the whole season it is a myth, but just last year how many times was Prince intentionally walked in a situation to put the team ahead or tie only to have Casey come up and make outs? At the end of the year all the free passes make the OPS look good but when it comes to winning a game I don't think anyone would rather have Prince on first than at the plate.

If they IBB Braun constantly he'll end up on 2B a lot and scoring from 1B on doubles. The speed makes a huge difference in this equation. Braun will also have someone better than McGehee hitting behind him.

[CheezWizHed]

I'd rather have had Prince's .929 OPS.

 

I don't think anyone is disagreeing with that. The point of my post was that despite losing one of the best hitters in baseball, the Brewer's didn't step off a cliff, but stepped down a notch instead.

 

Beat writers are predicting a large drop from the Brewers, while predicting the Cardinals as champs. I guess, I see it as the Cardinals, Reds, and Brewers all having an equal chance at the Central (similar to what we said a year ago). One of those teams will probably have an off year (like the Reds did last year), but its not like we are going to be fighting to get above 500 this year either (save for injuries).

[Ennder]

Well TV experts are usually pretty clueless about everything so I just don't pay any attention to them anymore. We'll see what the projection systems think about them, that is usually closer to the truth.