Brewers win negotiating rights to Japanese OF Norichika Aoki for $2.5 million. Latest: signs 2-yr deal

[patrickgpe]

Did I miss it or has there still been no details on the terms of the contract yet? Kind of odd. Even if the Brewers have not officially released the numbers, there is usually some reporting source that is able to get this information a head of the official release.

i read somewhere yesterday that it was believed to be in the 1 to 1.5 million per year range, not sure by who though

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't want to underestimate the loss of Prince, but this looks like a better team than this time last year.

You are not only underestimating the loss of Prince you are overestimating Ramirez and Gonzalez, both of whom I expect to be anywhere from minor to major disappointments. You are also underestimating the effect Prince in the lineup had on guys like Hart, Weeks and even to a minor extent Braun. All those guys played their entire careers with Prince in the lineup.

 

The Cardinals suffered a major loss too, though Beltran is a pretty good pickup (at least as good as Ramirez) but assuming Wainwright is healthy, they got a major upgrade in their rotation. I don't see a similar upgrade in a Brewer rotation that had guys gassed by last October. Cards also have a nice blend of established players with emerging guys like Freese, Jay and Craig. With the possible exception of Lucroy (who's probably close to his ceiling) I just don't see emerging players on the Brewer roster unless Gomez suddenly blossoms.

 

I think given the division, the Brewers can be competitive, if their starting pitching holds up. But last year I had no doubt the Brewers were sitting on the best roster in the division and I don't get that feeling going in this year.

[monty57]

With the possible exception of Lucroy (who's probably close to his ceiling) I just don't see emerging players on the Brewer roster unless Gomez suddenly blossoms.

 

Gamel? He won't match Fielder's odd-year production (1.013 OPS in 2007, 1.014 in 2009, .981 in 2011), but he could come close to Fielder's even-year production (.830 in 2006, .879 in 2008, .872 in 2010). Fielder is a very good player, but if Gamel can put up a low-.800 OPS and play average 1B defense, we should be okay.

 

Edit: I had to run, so I wanted to come back and add to that I certainly don't think that Gamel will match Fielder's offensive production, but I expect more out of him than a lot of people seem to expect.

 

Our biggest test will of course come in the first 50 games if Braun is suspended. We will shift gears on offense, with two decent OBP guys (Aoki & Morgan) setting the table for three All Star-caliber hitters (Hart, Ramirez, Weeks) and a bottom of the order which should produce better than last year's bottom of the order (Gamel, Lucory, Gonzalez). With Braun in there, I like our lineup, which will miss Prince, but should still score a lot of runs.

 

Disclaimer that injuries can always waylay even the best laid plans.

[Ennder]

Fielder+Betancourt+McGehee combined for 6.3 WAR last year. We replaced that with Gonzalez+Ramirez+Gamel. Gonzalez is usually a 1-1.5 WAR guy, Ramirez is in the 2-4 WAR range (he is very erratic), Gamel is probably something like a 1 WAR player. The bullpen is arguably a wash with a full season of KRod, the rotation is probably a little better than they performed last year with a full season of Greinke and Gallardo maturing. So even without taking Braun into account I'd think at best this roster is a wash with last years and most likely it is weaker. It is a playoff capable roster but some things certainly need to go right.

[MVP2110]

I think given the division, the Brewers can be competitive, if their starting pitching holds up. But last year I had no doubt the Brewers were sitting on the best roster in the division and I don't get that feeling going in this year.

Honestly the Reds worry me more than the Cardinals do. You talk about how our lineup is going to be without Prince, I think Pujols had an even bigger effect on St.Louis. Wainwright won't be the same right away when he comes back and Carp will be a little bit older. After that in their rotation I see just a bunch of average starters. The reds are the team that really scare me this year. Solid Rotation, Solid lineup and solid bullpen.

[markedman5]

Aoki numbers

 

Pretty good. 1 million plus incentives

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/#!/BrewerNation/status/160087905887465472

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.jsonline.com/b...rfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

More on Aoki's deal from TH. Looks pretty low risk to me. Could turn out to be fantastic if he pans out.

[jjkoestler]

The Brewers are paying 4th/5th OF type salary. Well done, DM.

[joshua502000]

Actually very happy about the numbers...I wouldn't have guessed that we could sign him for this kind of reasonable contract. Actually makes me wonder what proven free agent out there would sign for this money? I am thinking maybe a Rick Ankiel type but heck even Kotsay signed a contract for 1.25 mil this season. so this in my mind is a great risk vs reward signing.

[RockCoCougars]

I can certainly live with these numbers. Much lower than I expected.

[Invader3K]

He must have very badly wanted to play in MLB. Good job, Dagumerubin

[chickinbrickin]

With the possible exception of Lucroy (who's probably close to his ceiling) I just don't see emerging players on the Brewer roster unless Gomez suddenly blossoms.

So you think Lucroy who just finished up a fairly impressive first full season in the bigs is close to his ceiling, but Gomez may blossom? Not seeing the logic there.

 

Aoki deal is great. Low risk for the Brewers.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think given the division, the Brewers can be competitive, if their starting pitching holds up. But last year I had no doubt the Brewers were sitting on the best roster in the division and I don't get that feeling going in this year.

Honestly the Reds worry me more than the Cardinals do. You talk about how our lineup is going to be without Prince, I think Pujols had an even bigger effect on St.Louis. Wainwright won't be the same right away when he comes back and Carp will be a little bit older. After that in their rotation I see just a bunch of average starters. The reds are the team that really scare me this year. Solid Rotation, Solid lineup and solid bullpen.

Isn't that what we say about the Cardinals every year? I don't count them out until the math does and right now the odds of St. Louis winning the division is the same as Milwaukee.

[adambr2]

I think this year's team (- Prince + Gamel, -McGehee/Betancourt + Ramirez/Gonzalez), is pretty much a wash at this point. Yes Prince is a big loss, but we do get better defensively, and don't underestimate having K-Rod all year vs. just a couple of months. Having Loe as our setup man cost us a pretty good number of wins in the first half last year, and hopefully Roenicke has also learned from some of his mistakes last year.

 

Even if the 2012 Brewers are slightly worse than the 2011 Brewers, which is debatable, we were still a 96 win team last year and 90 is usually about the magic number for getting in so we have some cushion. And it's all about getting in -- once you're there you've got a shot. The best team doesn't always come out as the champs as we saw with the Cardinals last year.

[Funketown]

Last night I had a bit of a bad dream where the Brewers ended up giving him $10 million for 2 years. Total $4.75MM for two seasons of a guy who should be a good role player with a high upside. I also do enjoy watching the Japanese ballplayers play and the circus they bring to town. Unlike Chicago, let's give this guy support even if he struggles a bit.

[MVP2110]

I think given the division, the Brewers can be competitive, if their starting pitching holds up. But last year I had no doubt the Brewers were sitting on the best roster in the division and I don't get that feeling going in this year.

Honestly the Reds worry me more than the Cardinals do. You talk about how our lineup is going to be without Prince, I think Pujols had an even bigger effect on St.Louis. Wainwright won't be the same right away when he comes back and Carp will be a little bit older. After that in their rotation I see just a bunch of average starters. The reds are the team that really scare me this year. Solid Rotation, Solid lineup and solid bullpen.

Isn't that what we say about the Cardinals every year? I don't count them out until the math does and right now the odds of St. Louis winning the division is the same as Milwaukee.

Oh I'm not counting them out by any stretch. I fully expect them to come out fighting. But on paper they don't scare me as much as the reds

[brettac1]

I agree. I think the Reds are the best team in the division.

[Baldkin]

So, Samurai swords?

 

Aoki Dokie?

[Invader3K]

I agree. I think the Reds are the best team in the division.

It seems like people say this every year. They do have some nice pieces, but I'm not sure why they'll really end up being a threat to take the division, though.

[Invader3K]

Here's a link with a brief comment from Aoki.

 

Aoki said at a news conference Friday that he's "just happy to get the opportunity to play in the major leagues. It's something that has been a dream of mine for quite some time."

[Patrick425]

Maybe this has already been answered somewhere in this thread (if so, I apologize), however, is there anywhere to find splits for Japanese hitters? I'd be curious to see if Aoki ever faced Darvish, and if so, how he fared against him.

[Roderick]

the rotation is probably a little better than they performed last year with a full season of Greinke and Gallardo maturing.

I can't see being better (and only worse) when we only missed approx 7 games from starters for all of last year.

 

I figure Grienke to be better and Wolf to be worse and offset each other. Gallardo, Narveson, and Marcum I figure to be in the same ballpark as last year. Injuries?

[ilovebeer]

Wow what a great deal for the Brewers. he must really want to play in the states

[HiAndTight]

I think given the division, the Brewers can be competitive, if their starting pitching holds up. But last year I had no doubt the Brewers were sitting on the best roster in the division and I don't get that feeling going in this year.

Honestly the Reds worry me more than the Cardinals do. You talk about how our lineup is going to be without Prince, I think Pujols had an even bigger effect on St.Louis. Wainwright won't be the same right away when he comes back and Carp will be a little bit older. After that in their rotation I see just a bunch of average starters. The reds are the team that really scare me this year. Solid Rotation, Solid lineup and solid bullpen.

Isn't that what we say about the Cardinals every year? I don't count them out until the math does and right now the odds of St. Louis winning the division is the same as Milwaukee.

Yeah, and every year they've had both Dave Duncan and TLR....not to mention a guy at 1B who's a pretty good hitter.

[HiAndTight]

the rotation is probably a little better than they performed last year with a full season of Greinke and Gallardo maturing.

I can't see being better (and only worse) when we only missed approx 7 games from starters for all of last year.

 

I figure Grienke to be better and Wolf to be worse and offset each other. Gallardo, Narveson, and Marcum I figure to be in the same ballpark as last year. Injuries?

I can quite easily see them being not just better, but significantly better.

 

First of all, I think even without ANY improvement, the numbers are going to look a lot better. A full season with Gamel at 1B, Gonzalez at SS, and Aram at 3rd base(who doesn't truly belong in the same group in terms of upgrades, but is one all the same) is significant.

 

Second, IF Braun misses 50 games, while that's a net loss, it takes those games away from Kotsay and gives them to a GG from Japan, except obviously Aoki will be playing LF and not CF. I think even without seeing him play, knowing the level of talent over there, it's hard to say that's not a substantial upgrade defensively over Braun.

 

Then on top of that, Kotsay will NEVER be playing and Aoki will get all of his PT.

 

 

So there is that. The numbers should improve with the same exact pitching.

 

But I think some of us believe that Greinke, a healthy, full year of Greinke will be much better than he was last year and will avoid some of the bad luck.

Gallardo hopefully continues on the run he was on at the end of last year racking up 13 and 14 K games.

 

Plus, there is the distinct possibility that Peralta breaks out this year and becomes "that," player that every team needs to sorta come out of nowhere and surprise and become huge impact on the team. I could see Peralta and Parra both being major parts of this BP early in the year, Peralta as our long man in order to keep his innings low and then potentially a starter.

 

 

You also have K-rod all year and Veras will almost certainly end up being more valuable than Saito or Hawkins for a full year...since hopefully he'll pitch a full year.

 

Throw in Zack Braddock who hopefully has his situation under control and lets hope that he can at least be the reliever he was in 2010 or better yet, become the reliever we all have expected for 2012.

There are a lot of reasons to expect not only our numbers to improve, but our individual pitching performances.

 

That things could go haywire and you could lose pitchers to injury is no surprise. Things like that are always possible when throwing a baseball. But there is no reason to expect it.