Home run production for 2012

[reillymcshane]

Last year the Brewers lead the NL with 185 HR. We lose Prince, which is huge. But the addition of Aram should help alleviate that. Here are some projections for 2012:

 

C - Lucroy/Kottaras - 20 HR

1B - Gamel - 15

2B - Weeks - 25

SS - Gonzalez - 15

3B - Ramirez - 25

LF - Braun - 30

CF - Gomez/Morgan - 10

RF - Hart - 25

TOTAL: 165

 

And this doesn't include the two back up infielders, or the 5th outfielder - not to mention the occasional HR by a pitcher.

 

With that in mind, we could easily reach the 185 mark again. I don' think any of the numbers I've attached are outrageous - and several of these guys could improve (of course, for each improvement there is likely a regression).

 

Obviously the Braun situation will affect numbers. But this total is as if he's here for the entire season.

 

What I like about the line up is that aside from Nyjer Morgan, from top to bottom, there's some pop. No, we don't have a 40 HR guy anymore. But the lineup looks a bit more balanced. Add in some (hopefully) better defense, we should be okay.

[The Truth]

C - Lucroy/Kottaras - 20 HR

1B - Gamel - 25

2B - Weeks - 22

SS - Gonzalez - 20

3B - Ramirez - 30

LF - Braun - 40 if he plays 162 games, 25 if he plays 110

CF - Gomez/Morgan - 10

RF - Hart - 25

TOTAL: 177-192

[The Truth]

I meant to add: I think Gonzalez could easily hit 20 and Ramirez could hit 30. Miller Park is a hitters park and those two will benefit from playing 81 games there. I think Braun is going to play with a chip on his shoulder and hit a lot of bombs. Weeks usually misses time due to injuries so I lowered his number a little. Gamel is a wild-card, but I think Gamel will consistently hit 25 HR's and put up a .800 OPS as a major leaguer. Not an All-Star, but good solid production... I'm a little concerned about Hart (just a gut feeling hoping his decline doesn't happen rapidly)

[brewtank34]

Lucroy/Kottaras: If Lucroy bats 2nd, then 20. If he bats 7/8: then 16
Gamel: 14
Weeks: 33
Braun: 29 if he plays a full season. 20 if he is suspended
Ramirez: 31
Hart: 26
Gonzalez:17
Gomez/Morgan: 7

[DHonks]

I think the numbers for Weeks, Ramirez, and Gamel are low for most folks.

catchers- 15

Gamel- 23

Weeks- 34

Braun- 29/37 depending on suspension

Ramirez- 34

Hart- 27

Gomez/Morgan- 6

-------

168/176, not counting backups

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the reason not many are willing to project 30+ for Rickie is the durability concern. I agree that over a full, 700 PA-season, he'd hit 30-35, but I think it's more realistic to guess like 25 or so.

 

But I think it's pretty clear that the point reillymcshane was getting at in his o.p. is true -- the Brewers' HR tally, and perhaps even offense, shouldn't be expected to be much different from last season.

[RockCoCougars]

To me, given the personnel changes and assuming Braun's suspension, I'd be willing to bet that they hit less than 150 homers next season.