Aramis Ramirez to Brewers - 3/$32 + $4M buyout for 2015

[Baldkin]

I don't understand why people don't think Morgan can repeat the season he just had. He slugged a little higher, but he had almost the exact same season he had in 2008-2010, and he didn't face lefties, so he had that platoon advantage as well -- which he'll have in 2012.

[Patrick425]

Patrick425[/b]]I still find it odd that he turned down $16M to stay on the Cubs this year to sign a 3 year contract for "only" $32M (plus the possible $4 buy out).

I think it would be safe assume the buyout and consider it $36M guaranteed money over 3 years. In other words, what are the chances the Brewers are going to pay ARam at least $16M in 2015 (assuming minimum logical, since no details).

 

My first thought when I saw what type of steep escalation on salary was what kind of no-trade protection is built in. Could be the Brewers are out of it in 2013 and someone needs a corner infielder.....

 

I guess the more I think about the comfort of a 3 year guarantee it makes some sense. However, if he really had confidence in his abilities, couldn't he have taken the $16 million from the Cubs this year and then signed a similar contract next year that basically would have netted him $52M over 4 years instead of $36M over 3? I understand that given his age, the chances are less that he would get a similar contract next year, but you would like to think that players that you sign have confidence in their abilities. Makes me think that he's worried he won't have a good season this year, so he better take the money while he can.

[brewtank34]

Patrick425[/b]]I still find it odd that he turned down $16M to stay on the Cubs this year to sign a 3 year contract for "only" $32M (plus the possible $4 buy out).

I think it would be safe assume the buyout and consider it $36M guaranteed money over 3 years. In other words, what are the chances the Brewers are going to pay ARam at least $16M in 2015 (assuming minimum logical, since no details).

 

My first thought when I saw what type of steep escalation on salary was what kind of no-trade protection is built in. Could be the Brewers are out of it in 2013 and someone needs a corner infielder.....

 

I guess the more I think about the comfort of a 3 year guarantee it makes some sense. However, if he really had confidence in his abilities, couldn't he have taken the $16 million from the Cubs this year and then signed a similar contract next year that basically would have netted him $52M over 4 years instead of $36M over 3? I understand that given his age, the chances are less that he would get a similar contract next year, but you would like to think that players that you sign have confidence in their abilities. Makes me think that he's worried he won't have a good season this year, so he better take the money while he can.

I think he just wanted out of Chicago. He was sick of playing for a losing organization. He saw Milwaukee on the up and up and being close enough for his family to not have to relocate. Money is big, no question....but I think the main factor was that he was done playing at Wrigly and that horrible albatros of a field.

 

[monty57]

I think it would be safe assume the buyout and consider it $36M guaranteed money over 3 years. In other words, what are the chances the Brewers are going to pay ARam at least $16M in 2015 (assuming minimum logical, since no details).

 

My first thought when I saw what type of steep escalation on salary was what kind of no-trade protection is built in. Could be the Brewers are out of it in 2013 and someone needs a corner infielder.....

 

I believe $6MM of the third year is deferred from 2012 - in other words, think of the contract as $12M, $10M, $10M, $4M buyout but for the sake of getting the deal done, he moved $6M to the third year, hence $16M. Therefore, I wouldn't think the 4th (option) year would be for a $16M salary. I would guess that we won't exercise the option, but if we did, it would probably be for $10M or so.

 

What is worth discussion is that we now have four players (Braun, Weeks, Yo, Ramirez) making a combined $48.25M in 2014. Plus, barring extensions Lucroy, Axford and I believe Gamel will hit arby that year and Morgan and Narveson will be in their final year of arby. We could probably still fit a Greinke extension in there, but things would start to get tight. Less tight than if we had signed Fielder, but still tight.

[xisxisxis]

If every season was 2430 games for every team then your 95.8% statistic would actually mean something, since they only play 162 games each it isn't anywhere close to accurate.

 

To clarify, 95.8% is the average accuracy of each 162 game schedule for the 30 teams, not the accuracy of all games played in 2011. the 96.06% accuracy is the average for 5 years of all 30 teams using a 162 game schedule for each team, each year.

 

 

 

 

162 games is nowhere near a large enough sample for Pythagorean records to be very useful.

 

i'm quite comfortable using a metric that is 96% accurate in the right context. in fact i judge what metrics to use and how to use them mostly on their accuracy, not on wether they give me an answer that supports my hypothesis or my bias.

[TCSM]

Anyone have a link to the live press conference at 10:30?

[dlk9s]

Yes, and I'm sure Morgan will readily accept the decreased playing time and not create any clubhouse drama because he's all about the team.

 

That's not a very fair statement to make.

[thumperden]

 

 

 

 

G

PA

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

BA

OBP

SLG

OPS

OPS+

TB

GDP

HBP

SH

SF

IBB

2009

31

CHC

NL

82

342

306

46

97

14

1

15

65

2

1

28

43

0.317

0.389

0.516

0.905

130

158

8

8

0

0

3

2010

32

CHC

NL

124

507

465

61

112

21

1

25

83

0

0

34

90

0.241

0.294

0.452

0.745

95

210

10

3

0

5

3

2011

33

CHC

NL

149

626

565

80

173

35

1

26

93

1

1

43

69

0.306

0.361

0.51

0.871

136

288

12

10

0

8

5

[/u]

[Raw Biz]

I would take ARam easily. McGehee's numbers were on a downward trend, progressively worse each year. He also didn't have the minor league numbers to really backup his success. With ARam, it seems that 2010 was just an off year. His career numbers have been great. ARam gets on base and slugs better than McGehee and strikes out less. Yes he's older (and costs a bit more) but I would think he still has 2-3 more solid-good years in him. With McGehee, his best days are likely behind him.

[RightFieldCoder]

He pops his shoulder out in 09 and then has a down 10. McGehee had a few fluke seasons where he did better than he did in the minors. I'm sure ARam will be better in the long run.

[bullox]

thumperden wrote:

If you were the GM (keeping contract amounts in mind) which would you rather have? I'll post fielding stats later if time allows.

As long as the GM looks at more than stats for context, I don't think there's really a debate here.

[Polish Falcons]

monty57 wrote:

 

What is worth discussion is that we now have four players (Braun, Weeks, Yo, Ramirez) making a combined $48.25M in 2014. Plus, barring extensions Lucroy, Axford and I believe Gamel will hit arby that year and Morgan and Narveson will be in their final year of arby. We could probably still fit a Greinke extension in there, but things would start to get tight. Less tight than if we had signed Fielder, but still tight.

2014? i guess my thought on this discussion is that is two years out we could also have guys like Tyler Thornberg, Willy Peralta, Taylor Green, Logan Schafer, Caleb Gindl, Taylor Jungmann, Jed Bradley contributing to the the MLB roster, or some combination of these players and other prospects. I also wouldn't be at all shocked if guys like Morgan and/or Narveson are gone by then. Brewers have a great roster Right Now. They have had a lousy team for practically my entire life. I am not that worried about sacrificing 2014 budget a for an opportunity to succeed in 2012, when the window of opportunity seems better than it's been for decades. That is not to say I'm conceding 2014, I think they could be good then too, but I guess I'm not that worried about the 2014 budget right now. Who knows what the budget amount will even be by then. It seems like every year Brewers fans assume this team is still living in the Selig days, like we don't have any money to spend, but check it out the 2012 payroll is going to be $100M.

[Patrick425]

Yes, and I'm sure Morgan will readily accept the decreased playing time and not create any clubhouse drama because he's all about the team.

 

That's not a very fair statement to make.

Well, it's my opinion. Yours may be different. Hopefully I'm proven wrong should Morgan's playing time decrease next season.

[RockCoCougars]

Anyone else a little disconcerted about him dropping the 'if I'm healthy' line in his initial press conference? It seems that even he questions whether or not he will hold up, which is odd to me- since it's not like he's coming off a major injury or something. I could see someone like Ben Sheets saying that, but a guy who played nearly every game last year? That would be kind of like someone going into a job interview and saying, 'If I don't miss a ton of work, I can assure you that I will do a great job'. I would have rather seen him say something like 'I'll be dedicating myself to come to camp in the best shape of my career' or something.

 

Maybe I'm reading too much into it. Was he prodded with a question about his injury history or something? I just read the highlights.

[Patrick425]

Anyone else a little disconcerted about him dropping the 'if I'm healthy' line in his initial press conference? It seems that even he questions whether or not he will hold up, which is odd to me- since it's not like he's coming off a major injury or something. I could see someone like Ben Sheets saying that, but a guy who played nearly every game last year? That would be kind of like someone going into a job interview and saying, 'If I don't miss a ton of work, I can assure you that I will do a great job'. I would have rather seen him say something like 'I'll be dedicating myself to come to camp in the best shape of my career' or something.

 

Maybe I'm reading too much into it. Was he prodded with a question about his injury history or something? I just read the highlights.

This is kind of why I question him not taking the $16 million for one year from the Cubs and then taking his chances on the FA market next year. Although, he did pass the Brewer's physical.

 

 

[theavrock]

I saw that too. Didn't like it at all, but there probably is some truth to the dude being lazy.

 

But lets be honest, if you were playing for the Cubs you wouldn't want to do much either. I am hoping a change of scenery and the chance to win a ring (which he doesn't have) will make the phantom injuries go away and he will work hard here.

[jjfanec]

Cuddyer gets 3 years 31.5 million. I am pretty happy getting Ramirez for what we paid

[jmeks23]

Yeah, easily Ramirez. He's older but he's also in better shape then McGehee.

 

 

Also, Ramirez has been doing it far longer than McGehee. You couldn't even do more than a 3 year average for McGehee because he didn't break the bigs (because Ramirez was better than him) until 2009.

[Crew2323]

Anyone else a little disconcerted about him dropping the 'if I'm healthy' line in his initial press conference? It seems that even he questions whether or not he will hold up, which is odd to me- since it's not like he's coming off a major injury or something. I could see someone like Ben Sheets saying that, but a guy who played nearly every game last year? That would be kind of like someone going into a job interview and saying, 'If I don't miss a ton of work, I can assure you that I will do a great job'. I would have rather seen him say something like 'I'll be dedicating myself to come to camp in the best shape of my career' or something.

 

Maybe I'm reading too much into it. Was he prodded with a question about his injury history or something? I just read the highlights.

If I recall, the question that was asked of him centered on his numbers if he's healthy. So I don't believe his answer was unprompted. But even if was, I don't think it's a big deal. Every player could say what he said. Would it be disconcerting if Rickie Weeks said it? After all, he was injured last year, albeit, it was a freak injury. I know I'm stating the obvious, but there are simply no guarantees of health for any player. And I think they all understand that. All it takes is a fastball on the wrist, or a runner hitting Albert Pujols' wrist on his way to 1st to end someone's season, or hamper them the rest of the season. But if they're healthy, they will put up numbers similar to those throughout their careers.

 

I felt Aramis was just being realistic and he said what any other player would likely say.

[JohnBriggs12]

He pops his shoulder out in 09 and then has a down 10. McGehee had a few fluke seasons where he did better than he did in the minors. I'm sure ARam will be better in the long run.

 

The same shoulder he popped out in 09 could pop out again at any time. There is definitely a structural issue with that shoulder. It didn't take much then and it won't take much the next time. It was talked about often on Cub broadcasts and likely was a reason the Cubs showed no interest in bringing him back. For all the credit the Reds got for bringing in Rolen, his recurring shoulder issues should be a red flag. Take a look at Rolen's numbers from last season, coincidently at age 36. That's the year Ramirez gets $16 million.

 

Look there's no question Ramirez has been a dangerous hitter for most of his career. But this contract covers him from age 34-36. There weren't many players from that age group the last couple years that were as productive as their prime years. It's a very "safe" move on Melvin's part. If Ramirez's production falls off, the "experts" will say that Melvin took a chance he had to take with the loss of Fielder and he'll get a pass. I'll say he should have seen it coming and used that money more wisely.

[RockCoCougars]

If I recall, the question that was asked of him centered on his numbers if he's healthy.

 

That's good to hear.

[ilovebeer]

What a great signing, I always hated him, I still remember a few years back when he hit that walkoff against us, I was in a bad mood all night, the only thing i donn't like is when he said IF i am healthy, that kind of scared me.

[cvollbrecht]

With Rollins reportedly gettting 3/33 from the Phillies I was wondering if you guys think our money would have been better spent there as opposed to Ramirez/Gonzalez. We would have been able to keep McGehee to platoon with Green/Gamel and hope for a bounceback year and maybe been able to get a better FA reliever than Veras.

 

So I guess the questions is, for the same money would you rather have and infield of:

 

Gamel

Weeks

Gonzalez

Ramirez

 

or

 

Gamel/McGehee

Weeks

Rollins

Green/McGehee

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'm pretty sure most people here wanted, and would want, Rollins. Mainly because he plays SS, hits at the top of the lineup, and we had Green and McGehee at 3B. It was pretty clear that Melvin made the cleanup spot a higher priority though. I highly doubt Rollins would've signed that same deal with the Brewers. Would've taken more money and years to get him to leave Philly. That being said, I'm a fan of the Ramirez signing. Defense is what we need at SS, and Gonzalez fills that need.

[trwi7]

The problem is we wouldn't have gotten Rollins for 3/33. We would have had to guarantee at least 4 years and maybe put in an option for a 5th to take him away from the Phillies.