Aramis Ramirez to Brewers - 3/$32 + $4M buyout for 2015

[Patrick425]

I still find it odd that he turned down $16M to stay on the Cubs this year to sign a 3 year contract for "only" $32M (plus the possible $4 buy out).

[RobertR]

I don't think ARam was getting a better deal if he played for another year. $36 million guaranteed is still greater than $16 million guaranteed. Plus, the Cubs aren't likely to win in the near future, and it might be worth it to ARam, who's set for life already, to play for a playoff contender at the sacrifice of a couple of million.

 

Robert

[CheezWizHed]

Let's at least develop a hatred-softening nickname for him - remember how "Diego" helped some of us overcome the Jim Edmonds acquisition. We've got ample time to come up with something suitable.

 

Just so it isn't "Dora." http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Our Pythagorean expectation from last year is 91 wins so we were 5 wins over. Luck could turn bad this year and we end up 5 wins under. That puts us at 86.

 

Or the pythagorean theory isn't 100% accurate (the baseball one, the geometry on is based on real science). The baseball one is only a rule of thumb, not gospel. Especially when certain events (Nyger Morgan + KRod additions) were probably not included in the calculation.

[pretendastronaut]

I had seen it reported that he didn't want to be a part of a rebuilding process that is assumed to happen in Chicago.

[Baldkin]

Or the pythagorean theory isn't 100% accurate (the baseball one, the geometry on is based on real science). The baseball one is only a rule of thumb, not gospel. Especially when certain events (Nyger Morgan + KRod additions) were probably not included in the calculation.

Pythagorean record is computed after the fact, based on runs scored and runs allowed over the course of the season.

 

[CheezWizHed]

Ok, thanks. Bad assumption on my part of it being a predictive number from the pre-season. Still, its only a rule of thumb and 5 games seems like "noise" to me.

[Bernman23]

It wasn't random chance that the Brewers had a better record than the typical team w/ their run differential. They had a great bullpen after they returned to health and K-Rod was acquired.

 

Pythagorean win/loss record isn't as relevant in baseball because there is different personnel having an impact at the end of a game.

 

The Brewers should have a very good bullpen again if they hold onto K-Rod, a decision which I'm getting more apt to support after hearing A-Ram's contract specifics. But if he could be traded for more support in the middle of the order (like Morales) and then replaced by 1-2 Hawkins' types (maybe Hawkins himself would come back in the trade) then I do think that would be the better option.

[yoshii8]

Good signing. I think Ramirez is the type of player who plays better when he's on a team that has a chance. He is a very good hitter, and will be a nice fit in the middle of our order. If he stays healthy over the next 3 seasons, he will be well worth the money.

[RightFieldCoder]

5 games is statistical noise. The standard deviation (I think that's the proper term) is 3 games. The deviation is usually attributed to luck, which can quickly turn next year to a negative number.

[thumperden]

What is all this 1st base talk with Ramirez? He hasn't played an inning over there in his career. Also, what does he bring chemistry-wise to the club? I saw lethargy defensively at 3B for years and I don't think that'll wear well with this club and the fans.

[StearnsFTW]

Sorry, I'd like to believe, but I'm just not feeling it like last off season.

 

I think Ramirez is going to be a cancer in what was seemingly a close knit, tight clubhouse. Based on what exactly? He can be a little "disinterested" at times, but I've never heard anything bad about him as a guy.

 

I think the loss of Fielder will be felt on the field of course but also in the clubhouse more than we know right now. Possible. But pure conjecture at this point

Braun being out for 50 games certainly isn't going to help things. Amen.

 

I think Gamel is a headcase and don't think he's any kind of answer at 1B. I fear you may be right on this one.

Don't think Morgan will be able to repeat the season he just had. Agree again.

Corey Hart is not a leadoff hitter, they need him to be a 3 thru 6 hitter now, but for some stupid reason he can't hit there. It would be ideal if he could hit in a power spot, but he sure hits well at leadoff.

 

I don't know, I think they are around .500 and just don't see them making the playoffs. Could be right. I think they're an 85ish team win with Braun suspended and an 88-90 win team with him. Catch a few breaks and that number goes up.

[Ennder]

Or the pythagorean theory isn't 100% accurate (the baseball one, the geometry on is based on real science). The baseball one is only a rule of thumb, not gospel. Especially when certain events (Nyger Morgan + KRod additions) were probably not included in the calculation.

Pythagorean record is computed after the fact, based on runs scored and runs allowed over the course of the season.

It still isn't a very accurate metric. One blow out win or loss against the junk part of a bullpen can swing it wildly. One bad series in coors can throw it way out of whack etc. It might be a little better than straight up wins and losses but it isn't all that much better.

[CheezWizHed]

5 games is statistical noise. The standard deviation (I think that's the proper term) is 3 games.

 

Statistical noise is a failure in a measurement tool. If a runner runs a 40 yard dash and 10 scouts come up with 10 different times, its statistical noise.

 

My statement is saying that the measurement tool (pythagorean theory) isn't very accurate, as it can be effected by various things (as Ender pointed out). Its a rule of thumb to go by.

 

The bad luck part probably hit, if Braun is out 50 games. Otherwise, this year's and last year's teams are shaping up to be quite similar.

[Baldkin]

What is all this 1st base talk with Ramirez? He hasn't played an inning over there in his career. Also, what does he bring chemistry-wise to the club? I saw lethargy defensively at 3B for years and I don't think that'll wear well with this club and the fans.

Saves his legs a bit, and a below average 3B would be an above average 1B. I'd imagine it depends on where the Green/Gamel situation plays out. I saw lethargy all last year at 3B and SS.... as long as the team wins and Ramirez hits, they'll be fine.

[Flood Pants]

That's a lot of deferred money. Great for next year's payroll, not so much for two years down the road. This is very much a "win-now" type move.

 

 

[xisxisxis]

My statement is saying that the measurement tool (pythagorean theory)
isn't very accurate, as it can be effected by various things (as Ender
pointed out). Its a rule of thumb to go by.

The combined accuracy of the pythagorean W-L estimates for MLB in 2011 is 95.8% (96.06% over last 5 years). While not as good as OXS (which is reportedly ~98% accurate), I'll gladly take it and use it.


One blow out win or loss against the junk part of a bullpen can swing
it wildly. One bad series in coors can throw it way out of whack etc.

It is as prone to error as any metric when using a small sample. You just need to know how to use it.

[mothershipconnection]

I'm approaching ambivalence now that we know the financials. I was quite worried that this would approach $45MM, or would go 4 years. At 2 years/$26MM, I'd be happy; 3/$42MM or 4/$48MM and I'd be disgusted.

[Warning Track Power]

I'm approaching ambivalence now that we know the financials. I was quite worried that this would approach $45MM, or would go 4 years. At 2 years/$26MM, I'd be happy; 3/$42MM or 4/$48MM and I'd be disgusted.

3 years/$32MM for A-Ram or let's say 3 years/$75MM for the first 3 years of a likely 8 year deal for Prince. Just for a fun comparison, for a 43% of the cost of a likely Prince deal, the Brewers would get (based on 2011 numbers):

 

-68% of the HRs

-78% of the RBI

-86% of the OBP

-88% of the OPS

-90% of the SLG

-89% of the TB

-Better AVG, 1B

-Approximately equal H, 2B, 3B,

 

Granted Ramirez is 6 years older than Fielder and is likely to tail off during the contract, all things considered this wasn't the worst option for the Brewers to replace Fielder in the cleanup spot.

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm approaching ambivalence now that we know the financials. I was quite worried that this would approach $45MM, or would go 4 years. At 2 years/$26MM, I'd be happy; 3/$42MM or 4/$48MM and I'd be disgusted.

I agree. I can either pretend each season is $12M, or enjoy the fact that Ramirez wanted to sign with the Brewers badly enough that he agreed to play for $6M this season. In either case it's not a bad deal.

[tigerbrew]

I think this is not a bad deal for the Brewers. It's a lot cheaper than signing Prince to a mega-contract, which is something the Brewers cannot afford to do.

[chickinbrickin]

Sorry, I'd like to believe, but I'm just not feeling it like last off season.

 

I think Ramirez is going to be a cancer in what was seemingly a close knit, tight clubhouse. What do you base this statement on? The fact that he was never a cancer in Chicago?

I think the loss of Fielder will be felt on the field of course but also in the clubhouse more than we know right now. I never thought of Prince as a clubhouse leader; so I don't think that will be a loss becuase it was never there.

Braun being out for 50 games certainly isn't going to help things. For sure

I think Gamel is a headcase and don't think he's any kind of answer at 1B. A headcase that has destoyed AAA pitching the last two years. I don't see how people aren't excited to see Gamel finally get a shot. Mark my words .280+ with 20+ HR. Is he going to replace Prince? No, but I expect big things from him.

 

Don't think Morgan will be able to repeat the season he just had. I agree, I want to see Gomez starting in CF next year, with Morgan getting some starts against RHPs.

Corey Hart is not a leadoff hitter, they need him to be a 3 thru 6 hitter now, but for some stupid reason he can't hit there. I agree, I would like to see Weeks back in the leadoff spot. Hart is at his best in the 2 hole. Here is my lineup with Braun: Weeks, Hart, Braun, A Ram, Gamel, Lucroy, A Gonz, Gomez/Morgan.

 

I don't know, I think they are around .500 and just don't see them making the playoffs. If Braun plays I see a repeat of last year. If he does get suspending I think they are an 86-88 win team.

 

 

[Ennder]

My statement is saying that the measurement tool (pythagorean theory)

isn't very accurate, as it can be effected by various things (as Ender

pointed out). Its a rule of thumb to go by.

 

The combined accuracy of the pythagorean W-L estimates for MLB in 2011 is 95.8% (96.06% over last 5 years). While not as good as OXS (which is reportedly ~98% accurate), I'll gladly take it and use it.

 

 

One blow out win or loss against the junk part of a bullpen can swing

it wildly. One bad series in coors can throw it way out of whack etc.

 

It is as prone to error as any metric when using a small sample. You just need to know how to use it.

Sure and given the sample of every single game played in a single major league season it is probably pretty accurate. Given a 162 game sample it is wildly inaccurate. Just because I think the stat isn't very useful doesn't mean I don't understand it. 162 games is nowhere near a large enough sample for Pythagorean records to be very useful. If every season was 2430 games for every team then your 95.8% statistic would actually mean something, since they only play 162 games each it isn't anywhere close to accurate.

[Patrick425]

chickinbrickin[/b]]

jhart05[/b]]Don't think Morgan will be able to repeat the season he just had. I agree, I want to see Gomez starting in CF next year, with Morgan getting some starts against RHPs.

Yes, and I'm sure Morgan will readily accept the decreased playing time and not create any clubhouse drama because he's all about the team.

 

[Roderick]

I still find it odd that he turned down $16M to stay on the Cubs this year to sign a 3 year contract for "only" $32M (plus the possible $4 buy out).

I think it would be safe assume the buyout and consider it $36M guaranteed money over 3 years. In other words, what are the chances the Brewers are going to pay ARam at least $16M in 2015 (assuming minimum logical, since no details).

 

My first thought when I saw what type of steep escalation on salary was what kind of no-trade protection is built in. Could be the Brewers are out of it in 2013 and someone needs a corner infielder.....

[JohnBriggs12]

"this wasn't the worst option for the Brewers to replace Fielder in the cleanup spot".

 

That's just the kind of narrow thinking that prevents me from being a big Melvin fan. You can't just look at replacing Fielder's spot in a lineup. Every year the dynamics of teams change without major personnel moves. With them you never know exactly what you have until you see them on the field. Teams have very few constants. For 6 seasons, Fielder was a constant. He was in there every day and I mean every day. He was productive, save a few slumps here and there and a rather mediocre 2010.

 

It takes more than finding the best bat that you can get with you budget to stay on top. That's why I would have preferred going after a Reyes and changing the dynamic of the team or barring that based on cost, at least having a payroll situation that allows considerable flexibility. Right now they have neither.

 

Last year the Brewer starters had an ERA that was 6th in the NL. That's very good compared to previous Brewer teams but it's not great and after their playoff performance there are many questions whether they can even be that good this year. Nothing has been tweaked in that regard at all other than the amount being paid the rotation which will be considerably more. I like the fact that K-Rod returns despite the cost. I think he and Axford are 2 constants on a team that lost such a huge one in Fielder.

 

I thought it was going to be a long season and that was before the specter of a Braun suspension. Signing Ramirez doesn't change that. Of course, anythings still possible and I could be way off. I hope I am.