Per ESPN: Braun Tests Positive, May Face 50 Game Suspension (Part 1)

[dlk9s]

This is the key thing to remember. The testers really don't care about guilt or innocence. They care about defending the test result. They have to do this; because to concede even once that they have messed up puts the entire system at risk in their mind. If one athlete is allowed to beat them, all the dirty cheats will latch on to that result and then we won't be able to catch any of them, or so the slipperly slope argument goes.

They disingenuously argue that this means they are completely impartial; they are only protecting the science for the good of us all. That is, to put it politely, [expletive deleted]. They know the ramifications of their accusations. There is an attitude at play here that they are the white hats, protecting us all from the depredations of liars and cheats. And while there are a lot of people doing a lot of good to help combat PED use, too many have become overzealous.

http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/4303/minorityreporth.jpg

[brettac1]

I suggest everyone to google "MMA" and "TRT" and brush up on a couple articles like these - http://mmajunkie.com/news/24201/medical-beat-in-mma-testosterone-replacement-therapy-is-too-ripe-for-abuse.mma

I can almost guarantee this is what Braun is got caught with.

But why would Braun do that? He's not over 40 years old, and he's not a teenage boy with developmental problems.

Because it's an easy way for athletes to use steroids. Tons of fighters use it to get around the rules.

[jeffy]

But why would Braun do that?

 

Because high-dose testosterone administration producing levels significantly higher than the normal range may potentially provide performance enhancement.

[mothershipconnection]

They'd still get caught if using those treatments, though. I can't believe that MLB or other leagues would allow TRT without huge, gigantic amounts of evidence that the player actually had a level of testosterone which required treatment. That case seems nearly impossible, as someone with very low testosterone levels is probably not going to develop into a pro athlete to begin with.

 

I can't take anyone seriously when they say "big pharma" multiple times in an article.

[Bnowell4evr]

I suggest everyone to google "MMA" and "TRT" and brush up on a couple articles like these - http://mmajunkie.com/news/24201/medical-beat-in-mma-testosterone-replacement-therapy-is-too-ripe-for-abuse.mma

I can almost guarantee this is what Braun is got caught with.

But why would Braun do that? He's not over 40 years old, and he's not a teenage boy with developmental problems.

Because it's an easy way for athletes to use steroids. Tons of fighters use it to get around the rules.

Ding Ding Ding

[Nader Raider Tim]

I'm just anxious to get some kind of update on a timeline for the appeal. I know we will never get a true behind the scene's look at the evidence but I am just stuck sitting on the edge of my seat with this one. Hopefully all turns out well for the Brewers.

[brewmann04]

I hope the brewers go forward with there team plans for the offseason.

[PKBadger]

OK, so if Braun was taking TRT, then the source who contacted Haudricourt to say it wasn't due to a PED would be telling a bald-faced lie.

 

I'm not saying the source is credible (how would I know?), but just stating facts.

[monty57]

Bringing up the term "chain of custody" seems like an important point. That may mean that at some point in time the sample is unaccounted for. If that is the case, then I can't see how they would be able to use that sample, as someone could have tampered with it.

 

"Chain of custody" issues mixed with a result never seen before mixed with a clean re-test hints at foul-play.

[Bench Coach]

Bringing up the term "chain of custody" seems like an important point. That may mean that at some point in time the sample is unaccounted for. If that is the case, then I can't see how they would be able to use that sample, as someone could have tampered with it.

 

"Chain of custody" issues mixed with a result never seen before mixed with a clean re-test hints at foul-play.

 

Not sure how much the re-test means anything, as the timing of it could have an impact. However the other pieces definitely raise some questions. I did think that I saw somewhere that the league was having the sample tested again. Though ca't remember in all I've read today where I saw it.

[Crew2323]

Bob Nightengale just tweeted:

 

Bob Nightengale

@BNightengale

 

 

 

Ryan Braun's testosterone level was nearly three times the norm, the highest in #[/s]MLB's drug-testing policy. So was it a false positive? #[/s]mlb

 

[Bench Coach]

Bob Nightengale just tweeted:

 

Bob Nightengale @BNightengale

Ryan Braun's testosterone level was nearly three times the norm, the highest in #[/s]MLB's drug-testing policy. So was it a false positive? #[/s]mlb

 

 

IS there aby one on this board with knowledge of how a result could be so high. I would assume even if he was using that his test would not be that high. What ralistic explanations are there?

[Patrick425]

I'm not sure where the "middle of 93" argument is coming from. In looking at the initial graph I see it spike at the beginning of 92 to the end of 94. To me a two year period of initial spike due to steroids would not seem unusual at all.

 

In your second graph what is "Adjusted Power Factor"?

The actual numbers (which are on the site I linked to, I believe, http://steroids-and-baseball.com/ ) show that the jump occurred somewhere mid '93 to 94.

Can't find the numbers there, but from THT, HR% rates by season:

1988	2.7% 1989	2.6% 1990	2.8% 1991	2.9% 1992	2.5% 1993	3.1% 1994	3.7% 1994	3.7% 1995	3.6% 1996	3.9% 1997	3.7% 1998	3.7%

The second graph is just the years lined up side by side, with the discontinuity edited out. No steady increase in power numbers (as if, more and more guys started using steroids), just one massive jump in a 1 year period.

Here is an article on the CT scans of balls from Aaron's era and Bond's era.

I'm still not getting it. I look at the first graph in your post labled as "Power Factor". If you count the hash marks on the bottom for years, in 1992 the rate is 1.48. In 1994 it's 1.57. If it was a one year jump it would stop at 1993, but it doesn't. The spike continues in 1994. Even the numbers in your post above support that. It goes up .6% in both 1993 and 1994.

 

I also still don't understand the "adjusted" numbers in the splice graph. Like I said the "non-spliced" graph shows 1.48 in 1992 and the spliced graph shows 1.34 in 1992. How were the numbers "adjusted"? My assumption would be that it's basically subtracting the total "spike movement", which apears to be .09 (1.57-1.48), but instead of subtracting .09, it's subtracting .14.

[monty57]

Bringing up the term "chain of custody" seems like an important point. That may mean that at some point in time the sample is unaccounted for. If that is the case, then I can't see how they would be able to use that sample, as someone could have tampered with it.

 

"Chain of custody" issues mixed with a result never seen before mixed with a clean re-test hints at foul-play.

 

Not sure how much the re-test means anything, as the timing of it could have an impact. However the other pieces definitely raise some questions. I did think that I saw somewhere that the league was having the sample tested again. Though ca't remember in all I've read today where I saw it.

Who knows if any of it means anything, but taking a test immediately after hearing of a failing result and having that test come back clean is relevant (at least it would be in a court of law, which this isn't). I don't know how long the test results took, or how long any illegal substance would show on a test, but the story said he immediately asked for another test, so it's not like he stopped using or changed his masking agent after he heard of the failed result.

 

I do agree that the term "chain of custody" coming up is a bigger issue, as is a result never before seen. Without these, the clean re-test would likely be disregarded. With these, the clean re-test is certainly something in Braun's favor.

[Greg Vaughn]

Bob Nightengale just tweeted:

 

Bob Nightengale @BNightengale

Ryan Braun's testosterone level was nearly three times the norm, the highest in #[/s]MLB's drug-testing policy. So was it a false positive? #[/s]mlb

 

 

IS there aby one on this board with knowledge of how a result could be so high. I would assume even if he was using that his test would not be that high. What ralistic explanations are there?

Taking horse steroids.....

[Baldkin]

I'm still not getting it. I look at the first graph in your post labled as "Power Factor". If you count the hash marks on the bottom for years, in 1992 the rate is 1.48. In 1994 it's 1.57. If it was a one year jump it would stop at 1993, but it doesn't. The spike continues in 1994. Even the numbers in your post above support that. It goes up .6% in both 1993 and 1994.

 

I also still don't understand the "adjusted" numbers in the splice graph. Like I said the "non-spliced" graph shows 1.48 in 1992 and the spliced graph shows 1.34 in 1992. How were the numbers "adjusted"? My assumption would be that it's basically subtracting the total "spike movement", which apears to be .09 (1.57-1.48), but instead of subtracting .09, it's subtracting .14.

"Midway through 1993", is exactly what the % numbers support, and the graph supports -- jumping almost exactly halfway to the sustained 1994 and onward numbers. The spliced graph is just a zoom in of another graph on that page, on the left sidebar. Here is how it was created.

Again, the graph is level from 1980 thru 2008, except the '87 season (which no one has shown why that is weird yet, as far as I know). So unless steroids completely propagated through the league in about a 12 month period, something else is the cause of this.

[Bench Coach]

Bob Nightengale just tweeted:

 

Bob Nightengale @BNightengale

Ryan Braun's testosterone level was nearly three times the norm, the highest in #[/s]MLB's drug-testing policy. So was it a false positive? #[/s]mlb

 

 

IS there aby one on this board with knowledge of how a result could be so high. I would assume even if he was using that his test would not be that high. What ralistic explanations are there?

Taking horse steroids.....

Hey - El Caballo never tested postive http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

[monty57]

IS there aby one on this board with knowledge of how a result could be so high. I would assume even if he was using that his test would not be that high. What ralistic explanations are there?

 

I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist here, but something getting into the sample after it left Braun's body would be a realistic explanation. That's where my mind's leading when I hear "chain of custody" questions.

 

Far fetched as that seems, the other explanations would have Braun putting on a cape and leaping tall buildings with a single bound.

[danzig6767]

The big, unquestionable scandal here -- as of now -- is that word of this affair leaked. I hope the Commissioner's Office is planning a full-on, publicly accountable investigation into the circumstances surrounding the leak, because it's completely unacceptable. Braun's reputation is irreparably tainted, whatever the facts ultimately turn out to be. I don't blame the news organizations for reporting what they had, assuming that what they had satisfied journalistic best practices. That's their job. But if the leak came out of the Commissioner's Office, then some heads had better be getting ready to roll.

 

As for Braun, I don't have any idea what to think; there are too many conflicting reports. We seem to have good reason to believe that he failed a test that triggers a suspension. Based on that, I think we need (for whatever value any of us places in our discussions here) to be talking about LF options. But I don't have any greater confidence than that in what I know.

 

Also -- special thanks to pebadger for some incredibly thoughtful and informative posts.

Good post and sums up my thoughts exactly.

 

At this point, i don't know what to think in regards to Braun truly being guilty of this or not, but it's completely unacceptable for this to have leaked out. While i didn't like the players union fighting drug testing in the past, one reason that they fought testing was exactly what has happened here. Not trusting that results would be kept confidential until all appeals were exhausted because the players understood that even if a player was later exonerated, tons of damage would have already been done to the player by the leaked initial result.

 

If i was a big shot in the players union, i'd be all over Bud Selig, wanting answers for why/how this leaked out and what baseball intends to do so that it doesn't happen again. ESPN was just doing what any media outlet would do when given material from a source which could be verified.

 

Yea, it's 2011 and there is so much media out there today, but Selig and baseball overall really needs to figure something out here so this doesn't become a regular occurrence any time a high profile player tests positive. That the results leak before a player has a chance to appeal the results.

[young guns]

What is "power factor" and how is it computed? To me it's pretty clear that the HR numbers have gone down since the steroid era. During that era is seemed as if you had to hit at least 50 HRs to win the HR title. Now the high HR numbers are closer to 40 HRs.

Power factor is Total Bases per hit.

The reason they use that instead of HR/AB or something like that is to eliminate non-hitting changes that may have caused something: Such as changing the size of the strike zone.

Once again, if steroids were slowly finding their way into the league, the power factor would go up gradually. Instead it jumped HUGELY midway through the 1993 season.

93 is also when the Rockies came into existence too. Just sayin...

[bucksman4]

I have a feeling the suspension will be upheld, specifically for one main reason. Admitting a mistake or a false positive by MLB would cloud the entire testing process in the eyes of fans, media, and most importantly, the athletes. Every other player ever called into question would take the Braun case as their defense and suggest they too were clean. It's far easier for MLB to uphold the 50-game ban for one player rather than deal with the backlash from the masses if their testing system proves to be flawed.

[TracyThom]

But why would Braun do that? He's not over 40 years old, and he's not a teenage boy with developmental problems.

Because it's an easy way for athletes to use steroids. Tons of fighters use it to get around the rules.

Ding Ding Ding

In the same respect, 103 Major League Baseball players have a therapeutic use exemption to take an ADHD stimulant like Ritalin or Adderall. 103 is roughly 8% of all MLB players. Compare that number to the general population. Only 1 to 3.5% of adults are diagnosed with ADHD. So, why do so many MLB players receive a therapeutic use exemption so they can take banned stimulants? The answer: It gives them a competitive advantage.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/643751-adderalls-on-first-ritalins-on-second

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Would TRT amp up your testosterone levels that far?

[Bench Coach]

I have a feeling the suspension will be upheld, specifically for one main reason. Admitting a mistake or a false positive by MLB would cloud the entire testing process in the eyes of fans, media, and most importantly, the athletes. Every other player ever called into question would take the Braun case as their defense and suggest they too were clean. It's far easier for MLB to uphold the 50-game ban for one player rather than deal with the backlash from the masses if their testing system proves to be flawed.

And if I ever knew for sure that happened that would be enough for me to turn my back on the game and I hae loved baseball for as long as I can remember, But if they were to uphold a suspension for that reason and tarnish a man's reputation and legacy just to save themselves, that is deplorable. Of course we will never know for sure....this whole thing is rediculous.

 

 

[splitterpfj]

I have knowledge of TRT, and believe me, this isn't making any sense to me. There are multiple forms of TRT...use of Androgel, which is topical, absorbed through the skin...use of Testim, a cream, also topical, pellet implants, which are placed under the skin, releasing testosterone into the bloodstream, testosterone injections, human growth hormone injections (this causes the body to produce testosterone), and Chlomid, which is a female fertility drug, which also causes testosterone production in men.

 

Not every lab uses the same measuring scale, but the most common method considers blood testosterone levels of between 300-1000 to be "normal." This is a wide range, as you can see, and levels vary widely from one man to the next.

 

If you use the cream, gel, or injections, your body decreases its own production of testosterone...the artificial testosterone floating around in your bloodstream registers with your brain, which causes your brain to stop signalling the testes to keep producing....your own system shuts down, which among other things, causes testicular atrophy.

 

If someone intentionally spiked their T (testosterone) levels to an extraordinarily high level, which seems to be where Braun was measured...that man would be risking mood swings, fits of rage, all kinds of issues...not the least of which would be an increase of estradiol, or E2, which is a form of estrogen. When a huge load of T shows up in the blood, the body uses what it needs, then converts the excess to E2...among the fun and games can be gynecomastia, or breast growth in men.

 

To swing from a very high level of T to a normal level of T in a hurry, you'd have to be blasting something into your body, and then stop cold. I have no idea what the blood levels on Braun were, and I suppose it's at least possible that you could blast T for a few days, happen to get tested just then, and then stop (though that seems an extraordinary set of circumstances to me).

 

Honestly, I think something's amiss. If a man blew his T levels through the roof, and then quickly came back to the normal range...I would expect to see mood issues on the way up, and quite possibly on the way back down, perhaps accompanied by lack of focus, loss of energy, memory fog...all sorts of things. Testosterone is exceptionally powerful. Men who use the topical applications are cautioned to wash their hands, to avoid passing even trace amounts on to those they come in contact with...and also to leave a t-shirt on during "special moments", to avoid T absorption by the lady in their life.

 

My two guesses...a screwed up test result, or the consumption of a substance which would cause a screwed up test result. We really don't have much information, but if it's true that Braun's level was sky-high, and then normal, within two weeks, I doubt it was through intentional hormone absorption.