Per ESPN: Braun Tests Positive, May Face 50 Game Suspension (Part 1)

[1992casey]

Wow, I haven't heard the term "chain of custody" since the O.J. trial. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Baldkin]

What is "power factor" and how is it computed? To me it's pretty clear that the HR numbers have gone down since the steroid era. During that era is seemed as if you had to hit at least 50 HRs to win the HR title. Now the high HR numbers are closer to 40 HRs.

Power factor is Total Bases per hit.

The reason they use that instead of HR/AB or something like that is to eliminate non-hitting changes that may have caused something: Such as changing the size of the strike zone.

Once again, if steroids were slowly finding their way into the league, the power factor would go up gradually. Instead it jumped HUGELY midway through the 1993 season.

[bando1234]

The answer is so obvious----- Ryan must have shook hands with Russell Braynan transmitting an unbeleliveable amount of testrone hense not testing positive for a PED. No blue intended.

[Patrick425]

What is "power factor" and how is it computed? To me it's pretty clear that the HR numbers have gone down since the steroid era. During that era is seemed as if you had to hit at least 50 HRs to win the HR title. Now the high HR numbers are closer to 40 HRs.

Power factor is Total Bases per hit.

The reason they use that instead of HR/AB or something like that is to eliminate non-hitting changes that may have caused something: Such as changing the size of the strike zone.

Once again, if steroids were slowly finding their way into the league, the power factor would go up gradually. Instead it jumped HUGELY midway through the 1993 season.

I'm not sure where the "middle of 93" argument is coming from. In looking at the initial graph I see it spike at the beginning of 92 to the end of 94. To me a two year period of initial spike due to steroids would not seem unusual at all.

 

In your second graph what is "Adjusted Power Factor"?

[bucksman4]

Either way, everyone outside of Milwaukee will always perceive Braun as a juicer even if he's exonerated on the charges.

[umphrey]

Either way, everyone outside of Milwaukee will always perceive Braun as a juicer even if he's exonerated on the charges.

don't care, I just don't want Braun to be a crappy player after this or get suspended

[pebadger]

The super high T level isn't Braun's big problem His big problem is the CIR/IRMS test which indicates exogenous testosterone in his system. Braun taking a second test, which turned up "clean", could actually work against him. It allows the testers to say "See. This is a normal guy. The only thing that could have triggered the first result is the ingestion of a PED."

 

There is a LOT more that needs to be known about this case. Braun's people need to get the best biochemists they can find on his side if they're going to attack this result, barring them already having a good argument on thier side for where something may have come from. The fact that they're already talking about "chain of custody" leads me to beleive they don't know where it came from and are looking to attck this thing any way they can. This will open them up to public perception by people unfamiliar with how hese things are adjudicated that he is just a doper trying to "get off on a technicality".

[Bench Coach]

This whole thing is making me ill. While I still believe he will likely be suspended no matter what and we will never know the truth, it bugs me that this was leaked before it could all be handled behind the scenes. So many thing about this raise red flags, but we also don't know about the issues or questions that were raised in any of the other cases.

It also seems that there is conflicting info if any of these have been overturned. The everknowing Jeff Passan says his sources say no, while Jimmy Rollins tweets indicate that not to be true, and he was backed up by another source.

Unfortunately the likely outcome here is he is suspended and branded a cheater and we may never know what really happened. Everyone will have to form their own opinions of him from that point on.

[Team Canada]

Clearly Braun is just twice the man that everyone else is...

[RockCoCougars]

I'm not sure where the "middle of 93" argument is coming from. In looking at the initial graph I see it spike at the beginning of 92 to the end of 94. To me a two year period of initial spike due to steroids would not seem unusual at all.

 

Sounds about right. To me, the steroid era truly began in '93 during Canseco's first full year in Texas. Letting Canseco out of Oakland truly opened the Pandora's Box.

[pebadger]

 

 

Unfortunately the likely outcome here is he is suspended and branded a cheater and we may never know what really happened. Everyone will have to form their own opinions of him from that point on.

This is the key thing to remember. The testers really don't care about guilt or innocence. They care about defending the test result. They have to do this; because to concede even once that they have messed up puts the entire system at risk in their mind. If one athlete is allowed to beat them, all the dirty cheats will latch on to that result and then we won't be able to catch any of them, or so the slipperly slope argument goes.

They disingenuously argue that this means they are completely impartial; they are only protecting the science for the good of us all. That is, to put it politely, [expletive deleted]. They know the ramifications of their accusations. There is an attitude at play here that they are the white hats, protecting us all from the depredations of liars and cheats. And while there are a lot of people doing a lot of good to help combat PED use, too many have become overzealous.

No matter how this thing turns out, ther will be room to beleive that Braun is indeed innocent. Everyone who espouses that position will be called naive idiots by the cynical know-it-alls who don't really know much at all.

 

 

(edit: language --1992)

[gregmag]

The big, unquestionable scandal here -- as of now -- is that word of this affair leaked. I hope the Commissioner's Office is planning a full-on, publicly accountable investigation into the circumstances surrounding the leak, because it's completely unacceptable. Braun's reputation is irreparably tainted, whatever the facts ultimately turn out to be. I don't blame the news organizations for reporting what they had, assuming that what they had satisfied journalistic best practices. That's their job. But if the leak came out of the Commissioner's Office, then some heads had better be getting ready to roll.

 

As for Braun, I don't have any idea what to think; there are too many conflicting reports. We seem to have good reason to believe that he failed a test that triggers a suspension. Based on that, I think we need (for whatever value any of us places in our discussions here) to be talking about LF options. But I don't have any greater confidence than that in what I know.

 

Also -- special thanks to pebadger for some incredibly thoughtful and informative posts.

[pebadger]

Thanks, greg.

 

I agree that the issue of the leak has not been getting enough attention, especially in terms of where to leak came from on the source end. In a vacuum, it's hard to fault ESPN for running with what they had. That said, from an ethical standpoint, I have a real problem with this being the same outfit that sat on information for YEARS involving potential criminal liability in the Bernie Fine matter, but yet could not wait a few weeks to publish the one-sided, clearly agenda-driven leaks by multiple sources regarding a matter that had yet to be fully adjudicated.

[jjfanec]

Looks like this could take a while. Tom H latest post. Sounds like MLB is shocked by this too. Tom has done a great job with this

I'd have to disagree here. He's once again late to the party and only getting sound bites cause he's the local guy.

He is "late" to the party because he is checking with his sources. He has been all over this since word got out. What type of story was he supposed to run at first? Should have he just copied what ESPN said?

[jjfanec]

Thanks, greg.

 

I agree that the issue of the leak has not been getting enough attention, especially in terms of where to leak came from on the source end. In a vacuum, it's hard to fault ESPN for running with what they had. That said, from an ethical standpoint, I have a real problem with this being the same outfit that sat on information for YEARS involving potential criminal liability in the Bernie Fine matter, but yet could not wait a few weeks to publish the one-sided, clearly agenda-driven leaks by multiple sources regarding a matter that had yet to be fully adjudicated.

I was thinking the exact same thing last night. They sit on the Fine thing but ran this like they did

[Baldkin]

I'm not sure where the "middle of 93" argument is coming from. In looking at the initial graph I see it spike at the beginning of 92 to the end of 94. To me a two year period of initial spike due to steroids would not seem unusual at all.

 

In your second graph what is "Adjusted Power Factor"?

The actual numbers (which are on the site I linked to, I believe, http://steroids-and-baseball.com/ ) show that the jump occurred somewhere mid '93 to 94.

Can't find the numbers there, but from THT, HR% rates by season:

1988	2.7%
1989	2.6%
1990	2.8%
1991	2.9% 1992	2.5%
1993	3.1%
1994	3.7%
1994	3.7%
1995	3.6%
1996	3.9%
1997	3.7%
1998	3.7%

The second graph is just the years lined up side by side, with the discontinuity edited out. No steady increase in power numbers (as if, more and more guys started using steroids), just one massive jump in a 1 year period.

Here is an article on the CT scans of balls from Aaron's era and Bond's era.

[greeg35]

yeah, can't stand haudricourt; but he's been doing really well with this IMO

[WisconsinSportsRule]

This case is becoming more and more strange. It's just not cut and dry like most steroid cases are. Like someone said, I hope Braun is gathering some of the best biochemists and doctors money can buy because this is huge for him.

[GreatEgret]

The answer is so obvious----- Ryan must have shook hands with Russell Braynan transmitting an unbeleliveable amount of testrone hense not testing positive for a PED. No blue intended.

Best...post...EVER!!

[pebadger]

Ken Rosenthal's piece, while even-handed with respect to Braun himself, may be one of the dumbest things I've ever read when taken as a whole. One the one hand he says that Braun may well be cleared. He parlays this observation into the conclusion that this incident proves that baseball will never be clean.

 

What?

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/...e-baseball-is-not-121011

[jjfanec]

Can someone with a knowledge of this stuff explain how odd it is for Braun's levels two be twice as high as anyone ever tested? What does that mean? Did he inject himself while taking the test?

[mikevan1818]

Don't know if anyone posted this, but I found a few tweets by Jimmy Rollins to be pretty interesting:

 

Rollins (JimmyRollins11): I hope Braunies initial test is not upheld....

Random Dude(StlCards314): nobody's ever had it overturned. Just upsets me that players alwasy deny first, then apologize and admit much later.

Rollins: never been overturned is "technically" correct. I know of a case that no one will hear about.

 

Doesn't really mean anything, but I found it an interesting POV.

[WinkelsasVsSoriano]

When they say "twice as high as anyone ever tested", is that in the MLB? Or do they mean that sentence in the most literal terms, that no one has ever tested nearly that high.

[brewmann04]

that what i found weird the highest ever?

[Bnowell4evr]

I suggest everyone to google "MMA" and "TRT" and brush up on a couple articles like these - http://mmajunkie.com/news/24201/medical-beat-in-mma-testosterone-replacement-therapy-is-too-ripe-for-abuse.mma

I can almost guarantee this is what Braun is got caught with.