What's your preferred 2012 lineup? (of players who will actually be on our team)

[JohnBriggs12]

adambr2,

 

Regarding SS, I'll go farther than you. The combo of Ransom and Maysonet has been solid enough that I'd just let Izturis go.

[TooLiveBrew]

adambr2,

 

Regarding SS, I'll go farther than you. The combo of Ransom and Maysonet has been solid enough that I'd just let Izturis go.

Ditto. The two of them are no great shakes, but they're both clear improvements over Izturis.

[adambr2]

Honestly, I believe our lineup is fine. The only real weakness once Lucroy returns is SS, and as you guys mentioned, Ransom/Mayonest, while unspectacular, have been adequate. Ramirez is having that summer run that he always does, and when it's all said and done, he will most likely be that 25-30 HR/100 RBI guy that he's always been. I really do think Weeks is finally coming around, too.

 

The problem has been the bullpen. That's the difference between us contending and being 6 under .500 right now.

[logan82]

It wouldn't bother me a bit to see both Izturis and Ishikawa DFA'd provided Green more consisted playing time.

[markedman5]

Ransom has been good defensively but it's hard to stomach that absolute patheticness that is our offense at short.

 

I mean you would think some random guy from AA couldn't do any worse then Ransom/Izturas......

[Funketown]

I hear a lot of "they're two different flavors of sick so it doesn't matter". I prefer certain flavors of suck to others. I'd rather eat a handful of dirt than a pile of dog poo. At this point though it's becoming difficult to discern the dirt from the poo. I think Izturis is still the poo.

[jmeks23]

Hopefully Ransom dons his golden sombrero tonight.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm not sure what they were thinking letting Maysonet be the odd man out. Ransom is clearly pressing and all this team needs is another guy who can't put the ball in play. At least Maysonet can bunt (he's got 2 sacrifices) and put the bat on the ball (9 K's in 60 ABs).

[Funketown]

I'm not sure what they were thinking letting Maysonet be the odd man out. Ransom is clearly pressing and all this team needs is another guy who can't put the ball in play. At least Maysonet can bunt (he's got 2 sacrifices) and put the bat on the ball (9 K's in 60 ABs).

 

Izturis has come to the plate 21 times with a man on 1st and less than two outs. He's GIDP'd 6 times! Amazingly, in those 21 PA's, he has contributed to 22 outs. An out is an out is an out, and a strikeout rarely leads to two outs.

 

At this point it seems unfortunate that Maysonet it the odd man out. Perhaps this is just because they thought they'd be able to get him to Nashville? Despite his horrible start with the Brewers, Ransom has been a bit better than Izturis (.208 wOBA vs. .236). Of course Maysonet has been more productive than either even if he hasn't torn the cover off the ball. Zips projections for Ransom, Maysonet, and Izturis are .304, .273, and .259 in that order. However, a large part of Ransom's projection probably comes from his AAA numbers at Reno, and I'm not sure if Zips takes the fact that he's playing in the West Coast PCL into his projection. In MLB he's put up about a .275 wOBA over ~250 PA's in the last three seasons. At this point I'd probably stick with Ransom just a bit longer, but I'd be okay with either Ransom or Maysonet starting. There is just no way Cesar Izturis should be on this team at this point in his career.

[TooLiveBrew]

At this point it seems unfortunate that Maysonet it the odd man out. Perhaps this is just because they thought they'd be able to get him to Nashville?

 

This is a Doug Melvin GM'd team. You can remove the "perhaps"

[reillymcshane]

SS - Ransom has 40 K in 78 ABs. Izturis has a .471 OPS.

 

I can't believe I want Maysonet in there. At Ransom can take a walk on occasion.

 

I don't know who to put there, but it's just killing this team.

[slappzilla]

1) RF Aoki

2) 1B Hart

3) LF Braun

4) 3B Ramirez

5) C Lucroy

6) 2B Weeks

7) SS Ransom

8) CF Morgan/Gomez

 

Lucroy certainly belongs no further down than 5th

 

LuCroy was doing awesome before he got hurt, no doubt, but he was in for a market correction. If you think he'll be putting up the same numbers when he gets back you're asking too much. Until that hot streak before he got hurt, he was a career 8 hitter.

 

The 5 hitter has to protect the clean up spot, otherwise teams will not pitch to the clean up spot. Hart is perfect for that role. If LuCroy keeps up the solid OBP then he can take the 2 spot, otherwise, as bad as it may sound, you have to put Weeks in the 2 hole. Weeks maybe batting below the mendoza line, but his OBP isn't the worst because he's been taking a lot of walks (leads the team in Walks by alot actually). That's what you need in the 2 hole.

 

Otherwise I like your lineup. Mine would be the same sans what I mentioned.

[rluzinski]

I'd like to see Weeks back in the 1 or 2 hole. Gomez and Morgan are both clearly inferior hitters to him.

 

LuCroy was doing awesome before he got hurt, no doubt, but he was in for a market correction. If you think he'll be putting up the same numbers when he gets back you're asking too much. Until that hot streak before he got hurt, he was a career 8 hitter.

 

I think we can reasonably expect a .325/.400 line from Lucroy going forward, which makes him a reasonable option from anywhere between 6th and 8th in the order. Of course, as along as Gomez is batting at the top of the order against lefties, it would be easy to argue that Lucroy would make a better option at #2.

 

The 5 hitter has to protect the clean up spot, otherwise teams will not pitch to the clean up spot.

We continue to hear about how important protection is for certain batters but the facts do not bear that out. No protection for good hitters does result in a few extra intentional bases on balls but that is about it. And more often than not, the walk results in more expected runs anyway. Late in games, when you only need 1 run, it might hurt you a little bit but it just isn't a big factor.

 

One of the most important factors to consider when determining batting order is one that seems to be ignored by most baseball fans. The higher a batter is in the order, the more plate appearances he will get. Over the course of the season, each batting order position represents almost 20 extra PA's. Putting a bad hitter in the 2 hole just so you can offer "protection" to your 4th hitter is almost certainly a losing proposition. It results in the bad hitter getting at least an extra 80 PA over a full season and your 5 hitter getting 60 less.

[TooLiveBrew]

We continue to hear about how important protection is for certain batters but the facts do not bear that out.

What are you talking about? Look at how badly Braun has struggled now that Prince isn't hitting behind him!

[slappzilla]

If Braun had garbage batting behind him no one would pitch to him. If you don't follow up your best hitter with someone who a pitcher doesn't think is an easy out, he won't produce like he should.

 

Braun hasn't struggled without Prince because, despite his slow start, Aramis has filled the 4 spot just fine.

[TooLiveBrew]

So Braun's .994 OPS in April (with 0 IBB), with Ramirez's .645 OPS behind him, is explained by...

[slappzilla]

...by pitchers considering Ramirez as a legit threat, despite his slow start.

 

There was a point last year in which Prince was either getting IBB or they would just pitch outside to him nonstop, looking for him to possibly swing, because the Brewers had no one solid behind him. Weeks was injured and Hart was leading off.

[TooLiveBrew]

In the time Weeks missed (Jul. 28 - Sept. 11 is the window I used), Prince had a .918 OPS... compared to his career .926. I get that protection isn't a complete myth -- you hear too many players & ex-players talk about it at length. But there's not much to support the notion that it has any kind of major impact.

[rluzinski]

In the time Weeks missed (Jul. 28 - Sept. 11 is the window I used), Prince had a .918 OPS... compared to his career .926. I get that protection isn't a complete myth -- you hear too many players & ex-players talk about it at length. But there's not much to support the notion that it has any kind of major impact.

 

I don't recall the studies I've read showing any negative impact on BA or SLG. I think it was just the increased walks. Of course, part of the issue is that people often assume that your slugger getting walked is a bad thing. Even if the guy batting behind him is significantly inferior, we almost always expect more average runs to be scored than if the other team just faced the elite batter. It's managing scared, not smart. Now, if you only need one run, i can see it being more of an issue but overall, wayyyy overblown.

[gregmag]

Good hitters hit because of their ability. Extrinsic factors aren't going to make much difference. The "protection" myth doesn't even pass the straight face test. Let's say a truly bad hitter was hitting behind Braun. Presumably Braun would get more IBBs, and pitchers would try to pitch around him more, resulting in a few more unintentional walks. As Russ said, the studies bear out that effect. But putting runners on base is costly, so pitchers won't do that too much, and if you're pitching around a good hitter without committing to a walk, you're playing with fire, because you're giving up control of the count. A good hitter like Braun won't just start swinging at garbage.

[logan82]

I wonder how players are treated if they bat behind good hitters. Maybe Braun's numbers have been better the last couple years because he had bad hitters ahead of him.

[slappzilla]

It's pretty much common sense more than anything.

 

Braun is up, close game, Izzy on deck.

 

Why pitch to Braun, who has a .994OPS when you can pitch to Izzy and his .500OPS.

 

Don't have to IBB Braun either. Can just pitch outside the zone hoping maybe he'll chase.

 

Braun is up, Aramis on deck.

 

Pitcher knows he has to do his best to get Braun out, as if Braun gets on, Aramis is a good hitter who can knock him in.

 

It's not really rocket science. Seems as if the topic is being over analyzed.

[Raw Biz]

It's pretty much common sense more than anything.

 

Braun is up, close game, Izzy on deck.

 

Why pitch to Braun, who has a .994OPS when you can pitch to Izzy and his .500OPS.

 

Don't have to IBB Braun either. Can just pitch outside the zone hoping maybe he'll chase.

 

Braun is up, Aramis on deck.

 

Pitcher knows he has to do his best to get Braun out, as if Braun gets on, Aramis is a good hitter who can knock him in.

 

It's not really rocket science. Seems as if the topic is being over analyzed.

 

I think you're just making it fit your argument by saying Izturis (or some other crappy player) is batting behind Braun. Not gonna happen unless some weird double switch. And in that case, it would most likely be one AB. Obviously there will be situations where Braun will be pitched around. But over the course of an entire season, it will have little effect.

[slappzilla]

Was the topic at hand not regarding protecting Braun in the lineup?

 

I thought it was at least?

 

I just gave an example of why you protect your best hitter. Wasn't trying to make a fit of anything.

[Funketown]

^Slapp, there are several studies out there that say we don't seem to observe the "protection effect (as it's usually defined)" at the MLB level. However, because the studies I've read have been purely empirical the study wouldn't really consider a drop off of a guy like Braun hitting ahead of Izturis, because that just doesn't happen in a typical lineup. Basically, the crux is that switching from an elite hitter (Prince) to a good one (Ramirez) shouldn't affect Braun's production. I think there's a pretty good chance that putting Cesar Izturis or a pitcher behind Braun would affect his output, but I'm not sure how you'd test this (maybe you could do it simulation based - put Izturis behind Braun and simulate different pitcher strategies and results, compare, etc.). Perhaps you could also run a test comparing how players perform when in the 8-hole and when moved up in the lineup, but there would obviously be a major selection bias problem there.

 

Back to the lineup, I'd like them to try this out when Lucroy gets back:

 

Aoki

Lucroy

Braun

Ramirez

Hart

Weeks

Ransom/Bianchi

Gomez (LHP), Morgan/Gomez (RHP)

 

I suppose they could swap Weeks and Lucroy as Weeks looks to be back to his normal self (his June-July batting line is about .260/.350/.450). Either way this lineup looks pretty decent to me.