What's your preferred 2012 lineup? (of players who will actually be on our team)

[chickinbrickin]

I agree with Prince that Morgan will never repeat the year he had last year and this is why. Yes, his overall stats look very similar, but you have to look at ABs. Last year Morgan had 378 ABs and posted .304/.357/.421. The only other times in his career he has gotten around or above those levels is when he has had less than 200 ABs. I think the fact that Morgan was able to sustain those numbers "long-term" last year was a fluke.

 

Outside of last year the two other season he had over 200 ABs his line looks more like .265/.335/.335. Morgans only value is in a very limited role against RHP. This is why I do not want to see Morgan starting in CF. Gomez defense and speed > Morgans .300 average for 150 ABs.

Morgan Career vs RHP: .310/.363/.401/.764 That's 1400 PAs, compare that to Gomez: .244/.293/.339/.632. He hits RHP. He can't hit LHP. As long as our manager realizes this, Morgan is by far the better choice in CF vs RHP. 80 points of OBP and 80 points of SLG is worth far more than whatever Gomez adds defensively and with his speed.

I don't agree that Morgan is a far better choice against RHP. With the bat yes, but you can't really quanitfy how much good defense adds. I'm still going with Gomez as my everyday CF with Morgan platooning against RHP at about a 50/50 split. Gomez at 26 still has a shot to finally get it and improve. Morgan at 31 has reached his ceiling.

[logan82]

Gomez has had 4 years in the majors and looking at his plate discipline stats(contact rates, swing rates, BB% etc.) has shown virtually no improvement at in any year. Given his age it is possible he may improve. It is, however, highly unlikely. His defense is probably less than 10 runs a year better than Morgan(Morgan is a good defender in CF) so Morgan's ability to actually hit RHP outweighs Gomez' ability to play defense.

[chickinbrickin]

Gomez has had 4 years in the majors and looking at his plate discipline stats(contact rates, swing rates, BB% etc.) has shown virtually no improvement at in any year. Given his age it is possible he may improve. It is, however, highly unlikely. His defense is probably less than 10 runs a year better than Morgan(Morgan is a good defender in CF) so Morgan's ability to actually hit RHP outweighs Gomez' ability to play defense.

I saw Morgan cost the Brewers at least 4 runs in the playoffs alone last year, while I watched Gomez save that many. Morgan is a way overrated defender. I think Gomez is closer to 15+ runs better than Morgan in CF over the course of a year. We will just have to agree to disagree I guess. As long as we can agree that the Brewers are the +!%# we are good to go.

 

I will say I haven't seen too much from Gomez to indicate a 180, but the age hopefully allows for some improvement. Gomez did look much better than Morgan in the post season with the bat and the glove. Small sample yes, but cause for hope Gomez could improve his bat.

[kramnoj]

I saw Morgan cost the Brewers at least 4 runs in the playoffs alone last year, while I watched Gomez save that many

 

I bet you've seen really good hitters go games without getting a hit, and I bet you've seen very poor hitters hit for the cycle. A couple of games in a short time span is not indicative of true talent.

I don't agree that Morgan is a far better choice against RHP. With the bat yes, but you can't really quanitfy how much good defense adds.

 

If you don't believe you can quantify the advantage Gomez brings, why would you advocate using him? We can quantify defense to some degree, and Gomez's plus in the field doesn't compensate enough for his deficiencies at the plate.

[chickinbrickin]

I saw Morgan cost the Brewers at least 4 runs in the playoffs alone last year, while I watched Gomez save that many

 

I bet you've seen really good hitters go games without getting a hit, and I bet you've seen very poor hitters hit for the cycle. A couple of games in a short time span is not indicative of true talent.

I don't agree that Morgan is a far better choice against RHP. With the bat yes, but you can't really quanitfy how much good defense adds.

 

If you don't believe you can quantify the advantage Gomez brings, why would you advocate using him? We can quantify defense to some degree, and Gomez's plus in the field doesn't compensate enough for his deficiencies at the plate.

If you watched Morgan all year you would know that he is not a good defensive player. My playoff example was used to reply to the prior OPs comment that Gomez defense is less than 10 runs better than Morgans over the course of a year. It was about 8 runs better in the postseason; so one can only imagine what it would be over the course of a year.

 

Just because I can't put a concrete number on what Gomez's defense will bring doesn't mean I don't know it is a positive. So since you can't quanitfy the exact number of runs it will cost the Brewers having Braun suspended for 50 games does that mean you can't advocate that the lineup is better with him in it?

 

Is Morgans bat really worth 20 more runs than Gomez over the course of 200 ABs? I doubt it. I still think Gomez defense is worth more runs than (Gomez's bat against RHP -Morgans bat against RHP). Even if Morgan bats over 80 points higher than Gomez over 200 ABs against RHP it is only an extra 16 hits.

[jhart05]

This team needs defense, badly. So I want Gomez in CF as much as possible.

 

I don't care what the advanced stats show or don't show, quote UZR or whatever you like, I don't care. My eye tells me Gomez is a much better OFer than Morgan and it's not even close.

 

One thing you can't quantify with Gomez, is the piece of mind it gives a pitcher knowing he is CF. I know sitting in the stands a ball hit anywhere near CF I expect Gomez to run it down, because he usually does. I'm always surprised when he doesn't. With Morgan, you can't say that.

[jhart05]

Weeks 2B

Gomez/Morgan CF

Braun LF

Fielder 1B

Ramirez 3B

Hart RF

Lucroy C

Gonzalez SS

[3Putt]

Gotta love the optimism jhart05. Prince in 2012!!

[chickinbrickin]

This team needs defense, badly. So I want Gomez in CF as much as possible.

 

I don't care what the advanced stats show or don't show, quote UZR or whatever you like, I don't care. My eye tells me Gomez is a much better OFer than Morgan and it's not even close.

 

One thing you can't quantify with Gomez, is the piece of mind it gives a pitcher knowing he is CF. I know sitting in the stands a ball hit anywhere near CF I expect Gomez to run it down, because he usually does. I'm always surprised when he doesn't. With Morgan, you can't say that.

Glad to have someone who sees the CF position next year the same way I do.

 

 

[umphrey]

This team needs defense, badly. So I want Gomez in CF as much as possible.

 

I don't care what the advanced stats show or don't show, quote UZR or whatever you like, I don't care. My eye tells me Gomez is a much better OFer than Morgan and it's not even close.

 

One thing you can't quantify with Gomez, is the piece of mind it gives a pitcher knowing he is CF. I know sitting in the stands a ball hit anywhere near CF I expect Gomez to run it down, because he usually does. I'm always surprised when he doesn't. With Morgan, you can't say that.

Glad to have someone who sees the CF position next year the same way I do.

 

I do really like watching Gomez play defense in center field. He reminds me of a golden retriever chasing down a frisbee.

[HiAndTight]

This team needs defense, badly. So I want Gomez in CF as much as possible.

 

I don't care what the advanced stats show or don't show, quote UZR or whatever you like, I don't care. My eye tells me Gomez is a much better OFer than Morgan and it's not even close.

 

One thing you can't quantify with Gomez, is the piece of mind it gives a pitcher knowing he is CF. I know sitting in the stands a ball hit anywhere near CF I expect Gomez to run it down, because he usually does. I'm always surprised when he doesn't. With Morgan, you can't say that.

Glad to have someone who sees the CF position next year the same way I do.

 

I do really like watching Gomez play defense in center field. He reminds me of a golden retriever chasing down a frisbee.

Yeah, the problem is, at the plate, he looks like a golden retriever WAITING for you to throw that Frisbee, and he just can't wait until it's thrown, so no matter how badly you throw it, he's going after it.

 

Someone neeeds to explain it to him that simply.

 

Golden Retriever in OF=Good.

Golden Retriever at plate=Bad.

[HiAndTight]

Gotta love the optimism jhart05. Prince in 2012!!

I'm so used to seeing Prince's name in the lineup my first thought with regard to your post was, "what optimism, that looks about right." But alas, despite being of the opinion that the Brewers are capable of spending more than most on this board(I've had them at 100 this year and 110 next year for about 2 years now).

 

 

I would love to see Aoki atop the lineup for the Brewers this year. A .329/.408 line is pretty impressive, even for the Japanese leagues, and that's after the implementation of that new baseball and an injury plagued season last year where he "only," hit .292/.368.

 

Also a career .875 OPS, and good speed on the bases, 3 time GG CF'er in Japan. 3 years 12 million, paid 3/4/5 would suffice.

[brewtank34]

1st 25 games: Vs. Righties

Morgan

Aoki

Weeks

Ramirez

Hart

Gamel

Lucroy

Gonzo

 

Vs. Lefties

Aoki

Lucroy

Weeks

Ramirez

Hart

Gamel

Gonzo

Gomez

 

Post 25 game suspension

Vs. Righties

 

Morgan

Lucroy

Braun

Ramirez

Weeks

Hart

Gamel

Gonzo

 

Vs. Lefties

Aoki (RF)

Lucroy

Braun

Ramirez

Weeks

Hart (1B)

Gonzo

Gomez

[Baldkin]

Vs. Lefties

Aoki (RF)

Lucroy

Braun

Ramirez

Weeks

Hart (1B)

Gonzo

Gomez

Lucroy is not even close to one of your 5 best hitters, why hit him 2nd? He has a .307 OBP over 2 seasons. He's had one month (April, 2011) where he had 50 AB's and OBP'd over .326. He's not a table setter.

Last year, he might've been a good choice to move up in the order when McGehee, Gomez, and Betancourt were all hitting in front of him.

 

My Lineup:

Morgan

Weeks

Braun

Ramirez

Hart

Gamel

Lucroy

Gonzalez

VS LHP:

Hart

Weeks

Braun

Ramirez

Lucroy

Gamel

Gomez

Gonzalez

[brewtank34]

Vs. Lefties

Aoki (RF)

Lucroy

Braun

Ramirez

Weeks

Hart (1B)

Gonzo

Gomez

Lucroy is not even close to one of your 5 best hitters, why hit him 2nd? He has a .307 OBP over 2 seasons. He's had one month (April, 2011) where he had 50 AB's and OBP'd over .326. He's not a table setter.

Last year, he might've been a good choice to move up in the order when McGehee, Gomez, and Betancourt were all hitting in front of him.

He has a .307 OBP hitting in front of the pitcher. He's a contact hitter that will excell in front of Braun. That's why.

 

 

[Baldkin]

Vs. Lefties

Aoki (RF)

Lucroy

Braun

Ramirez

Weeks

Hart (1B)

Gonzo

Gomez

Lucroy is not even close to one of your 5 best hitters, why hit him 2nd? He has a .307 OBP over 2 seasons. He's had one month (April, 2011) where he had 50 AB's and OBP'd over .326. He's not a table setter.

Last year, he might've been a good choice to move up in the order when McGehee, Gomez, and Betancourt were all hitting in front of him.

He has a .307 OBP hitting in front of the pitcher. He's a contact hitter that will excell in front of Braun. That's why.

 

Actually, he has a .338 OBP hitting 8th. Its under .300 in every other spot in the lineup. He hits lefties well enough to be moved up, but hasn't hit righties in his career.

[adambr2]

1st 25 games: Vs. Righties

Morgan

Aoki

Weeks

Ramirez

Hart

Gamel

Lucroy

Gonzo

 

Vs. Lefties

Aoki

Lucroy

Weeks

Ramirez

Hart

Gamel

Gonzo

Gomez

 

Post 25 game suspension

Vs. Righties

 

Morgan

Lucroy

Braun

Ramirez

Weeks

Hart

Gamel

Gonzo

 

Vs. Lefties

Aoki (RF)

Lucroy

Braun

Ramirez

Weeks

Hart (1B)

Gonzo

Gomez

You mean 50 right? Unless I missed something -- I would be celebrating if Braun only was to miss 25 games.

[brewtank34]

1st 25 games: Vs. Righties

 

You mean 50 right? Unless I missed something -- I would be celebrating if Braun only was to miss 25 games.

Nope, I am holding out for a 25 game suspension as I've heard 50 games for a PED, 25 games for something other than a PED or possible failing to notify MLB of the medication. I could be wrong though and will have to re-read some of the posts in the other Braun forum.

 

[Raw Biz]

1st 25 games: Vs. Righties

 

You mean 50 right? Unless I missed something -- I would be celebrating if Braun only was to miss 25 games.

Nope, I am holding out for a 25 game suspension as I've heard 50 games for a PED, 25 games for something other than a PED or possible failing to notify MLB of the medication. I could be wrong though and will have to re-read some of the posts in the other Braun forum.

I think you're wrong. 25 games is for substances like marijuana. Even if whatever Braun took isn't technically a PED, it would be considered one by MLB. Basically if whatever he took wasn't a banned "substance," then it's considered a PED, at least according to the rules now. But who knows, maybe MLB/Selig would knock down the suspension to 25 games because of all the crazy hoopla and circumstances that resulted in this mess.

[Baldkin]

I think you're wrong. 25 games is for substances like marijuana. Even if whatever Braun took isn't technically a PED, it would be considered one by MLB. Basically if whatever he took wasn't a banned "substance," then it's considered a PED, at least according to the rules now. But who knows, maybe MLB/Selig would knock down the suspension to 25 games because of all the crazy hoopla and circumstances that resulted in this mess.

Cameron had a 25 game suspension for taking a banned stimulant (amphetamines). Players aren't tested in MLB for recreational drugs. Not knowing specifically what Braun tested positive for, its tough to say which purview he will fall under.

[chickinbrickin]

Lucroy is not even close to one of your 5 best hitters, why hit him 2nd? He has a .307 OBP over 2 seasons. He's had one month (April, 2011) where he had 50 AB's and OBP'd over .326. He's not a table setter.

Last year, he might've been a good choice to move up in the order when McGehee, Gomez, and Betancourt were all hitting in front of him.

He has a .307 OBP hitting in front of the pitcher. He's a contact hitter that will excell in front of Braun. That's why.

 

Actually, he has a .338 OBP hitting 8th. Its under .300 in every other spot in the lineup. He hits lefties well enough to be moved up, but hasn't hit righties in his career.

 

I kind of agree with Baldkin. Lucroys stats don't point towards a table setter. I actually like him down in the line-up in the 6th spot. Last year he batted .255 with bases empty, .280 with men on, and .298 with men in scoring pos. I like him better as a RBI guy than a table-setter. He doesn't have much speed to offfer either in the 2 hole.

[TooLiveBrew]

Lucroy just doesn't profile real well as a big-league hitter. He does for his position, though, so he'll be fine... but I agree about not wanting him hitting high up in the order.

[jmeks23]

I personally didn't like Morgan batting second as doesn't walk much and strikes out a fair amount. His speed, and slap-hitting ability is just far better suited for the leadoff spot.

 

 

So basically, your standard everyday lineup (against RHP) :

 

Morgan

Hart

Braun

Ramirez

Weeks

Gamel

Lucroy

Gonzalez

 

Vs. LHP would be a little more confusing due to Gomez sucking offensively

 

I'd probably go:

 

Hart

Gomez

Braun

Ramirez

Weeks

Lucroy

Gamel

Gonzalez

 

If Gonzalez is hitting relatively well he'd probably be my 2 hitter vs LHP.

[paul253]

This is the lineup I'm favoring right now:

 

1) Morgan/Gomez

2) Gamel

3) Braun

4) Ramirez

5) Weeks

6) Hart

7) Lucroy/Kottaras

8) Gonzalez

 

I know the problems with Gomez leading off, but I don't think its a good idea moving people all over when a lefty pitches. I think Gamel would benefit from hitting in front of the big boys because he'd see better pitches. If Braun is suspended 50 games I'd probably set it like this for those games:

 

1) Morgan/Gomez

2) Gamel

3) Weeks

4) Ramirez

5) Hart

6) Aoki

7) Lucroy

8) Gozalez

[Schlitz001]

Looking at the players making up this years lineup it's clear that there will be a lot of shuffling around as the season moves on. Aoki, Gamel, and even Ramirez are big wild cards as to what they will bring to the table offensively. Aoki's numbers need to translate and Gamel needs to prove that he can produce in the big leagues. Ramirez will likely put up some decent power numbers, but you have to assume that he is likely going to decline from his 2011 numbers. The only sure thing is that Gonzalez is the least productive offensive player on the team and should be slotted #8. I put Hart batting leadoff because that is where him and RR like him to hit and because that's where he puts up the best numbers. Weeks slots nicely as a number 3 hitter with Braun out and I prefer to seperate right and left handed hitters.

 

Here is what I think RR will do opening day against Wainwirght/Carpenter:

 

Hart

Morgan

Weeks

A-Ram

Gamel

Lucroy

Aoki

Gonzalez