Brewers sign SS Alex Gonzalez (one year, plus vesting option)

[Ennder]

I don't like WAR as a stat but Gozo's last 3 years are 0.6, 3.4, 1.1 compared to -2.1, 0.9 and 0.5 for Betancourt. Everyone once in awhile Gonzo puts up a year like 2010, but most year's he is a 0-1 WAR player just like YB, neither are good players. And Gonzo being 35+ isn't going to make his outlook suddenly improve. It's probably 50/50 on whether or not he will even be a positive on the defensive ratings given his age and track record.

 

Gonzo - 5.1 WAR over 3 seasons. Yuni - -0.7 WAR. Yeah I can see how you can say they have basically been the same... I honestly don't expect much out of Alex Gonzalez this year and that is a big upgrade over Betancourt. I think the heavy use of the shift helped hide just how horrible Betancourt was defensively making his stats look better than he actually was. I'm not surprised at all that he signed as a backup because he hasn't been a starting quality SS for quite some time now. I'm also not surprised that only a bad team with two young mediocre MI signed him to be the backup and I fully expect him to be out of baseball within 3 years unless he can keep latching on with teams as a PH vs LHP and get like 100 AB a year.

[pebadger]

I think we can all agree that it takes a special kind of player to inspire this kind of discussion after he's gone.

[CheezWizHed]

To answer a previous question of "Who will be this year's YB?" Answer: It is of course: YB!

[MJLiverock]

Where are you getting negative defensive ratings for 5/12 years? I see 2 out of 9, which seems pretty good.

 

And I don't think I've ever seen someone skew their conclusion to their own opinion so dramatically. Gonzo's last 3 years average to 1.7 WAR. Yuni's to -0.23. And that includes Gonzalez coming off a knee injury. Given all that, how you figure they are basically the same most years is beyond me.

fangraphs.com

 

defensive since 1999; -12, -4, -3, 3.2, 8.0, 7.3. -1.4. 9.7, 5.0, 7.0, 5.1 -0.3 = 5/12, tossing out the first year in'98 when he didn't play much although the 3.2 year wasn't a full year either so he could be 5/11 as negative on a fully year including last year and is getting older. How is that skewing a conclusion?

 

Gonzo's WAR: 0.5, -1.8, 0.8, 0.5, 3.1, 1.4, 0.6, 1.4, 2.5, 0.6, 3.4, 1.1 -- other than the random years where for some reason he knows how to play defense really really well his WAR is around 1 or less.

Betancourt has had one negative WAR year and the rest between 0.5 and 1.5. All of which is puts them in the same class of player. How is that skewing my opinion? Looks more like picking the most likely outcome for Gonzo and Betancourt. If anything cherry picking out the couple of really good defensive years for Gonzo (while ignoring all the years of WAR between 0 and 1.5 which is 9/12 which represent 75% of his career) expecting that level of defense at age 35+ is skewing the opinion into thinking there is any meaningful upgrade to the position. As I said a '78 Pinto or an '84 Yugo, crappy cars, just different model.

 

Gonzo's three year average of 1.7 you cite is actually three years of 0.6, 3.4, 1.1, which year is the outlier? Again 75% of Gonzo's career is his below 1.5 WAR, which is right where YB has been for 80-90% of his career.

 

I just don't agree that Gonzo is going to make any sort of meaningful difference to the team versus YB unless somehow this is one of those random years where he plays great defense but given his age I don't want to bank on it. Neither are good players. I don't like the accusation that there is no basis for claiming Gonzo isn't any better or that I am just making stuff up.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think one can look at 1 year of UZR or UZR/150 data & come to the conclusion that a player has played good or bad defense in that season. Defense is still far better evaluated subjectively, at least until FieldingF/X data becomes public. The difference in terms of defensive talent & ability between Sea Bass & Yuni is huge. At this point, I think the best way to explain my own personal expectations would be Gonzalez fielding SS at a grade of roughly a B or B+, with Yuni being closer to a D/D-/F. Each guy could perform better or worse, but this is a wide gulf in defensive ability.

 

Pardon me if I'm being presumptuous, but I wonder if people who aren't convinced Gonzalez's defense will be that significant an upgrade have seen much of Gonzalez play. Yes, he's older at 35, but this is a guy who has been about as good as it gets at defending SS (outside of superfreaks like Tulo/Omar Vizquel) for almost his whole career... imo he's has been one of the most overlooked defenders in MLB during his career (microfracture knee surgery in '08 has probably been the biggest agent of change in his abilities). He wasn't Jeter, he wasn't A-Rod, he played for the Marlins, etc. But his defensive skills have been at an elite level for basically his whole career, so even in his decline, he's still very much a plus fielder. He's not top tier, but he's close enough to it that he's going to help save a lot more runs in 2012.

[Baldkin]

Where are you getting negative defensive ratings for 5/12 years? I see 2 out of 9, which seems pretty good.

 

And I don't think I've ever seen someone skew their conclusion to their own opinion so dramatically. Gonzo's last 3 years average to 1.7 WAR. Yuni's to -0.23. And that includes Gonzalez coming off a knee injury. Given all that, how you figure they are basically the same most years is beyond me.

fangraphs.com

 

defensive since 1999; -12, -4, -3, 3.2, 8.0, 7.3. -1.4. 9.7, 5.0, 7.0, 5.1 -0.3 = 5/12, tossing out the first year in'98 when he didn't play much although the 3.2 year wasn't a full year either so he could be 5/11 as negative on a fully year including last year and is getting older. How is that skewing a conclusion?

 

Before 2002 they were not using UZR, instead they are using Total Zone ratings. Also, I really don't see how what he did 10 years ago has anything to do with how he might do this coming season. It doesn't. The same way Kotsay's pinch hitting average over his 15 year career had nothing to do with it either.

 

His UZR/150 over the last 5 years averages out to be 7.8.

 

The fluctuation in his WAR has been almost entirely based on his bat, rather than his glove. His 3.4 WAR year was so high because he was basically a league average bat. Considering he is a dead pull hitter, Miller Park should help him in that aspect over Turner Field.

[logan82]

I don't expect Gonzales to be to much above average but to say he is a negative on defense is very misleading. 4 of his negative years on defense were previous to 2001. I question how relevant stats from 5+ years back actually are.

 

^^Gahh, what he said. That's what I get for typing up a post walking away and coming back to post it.

[thebruce44]

Where are you getting negative defensive ratings for 5/12 years? I see 2 out of 9, which seems pretty good.

 

And I don't think I've ever seen someone skew their conclusion to their own opinion so dramatically. Gonzo's last 3 years average to 1.7 WAR. Yuni's to -0.23. And that includes Gonzalez coming off a knee injury. Given all that, how you figure they are basically the same most years is beyond me.

fangraphs.com

 

defensive since 1999; -12, -4, -3, 3.2, 8.0, 7.3. -1.4. 9.7, 5.0, 7.0, 5.1 -0.3 = 5/12, tossing out the first year in'98 when he didn't play much although the 3.2 year wasn't a full year either so he could be 5/11 as negative on a fully year including last year and is getting older. How is that skewing a conclusion?

 

Ah, you used Total Zone for the first 3 years. Well, if you want to use Total Zone, lets use it (probably not very smart). -12, -4, -3, 2,1,0,4,2,1,0,11. Thats 3/11 years, and they were his first 3 years in the league. See how I managed to skew a totally different conclusion?

 

In reality, the best we can do if we really want to look at defensive metrics is look at UZR over as long a time period as possible.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=520&position=SS#fieldingadvanced

 

2 out of the last 9 years he has posted a negative UZR. The other years he has been average to very good.

 

Don't like UZR? Lets look at the fans scouting report since I'm guessing neither of us have seen him play very much.

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/index6.php?prim_fld_cd=6

 

Last year (2011) Gonzalez ranked 4th out of all SSs. Guess where Yuni was? Second to last, mixed in which a bunch of guys who played half seasons or out of position.

 

2010, Gonzalez was 19th. Not too great, but I'm sure you can guess who came in dead last.

 

2009, Gonzalez was 20th. Again, guess who was last.

 

I guess I can see arguing that Gonzalez isn't an above average SS. I just can't see arguing that he wont be a significant upgrade over Yuni, especially if you want to actually look at the stats.

[craigharmann]

I think we can all agree that it takes a special kind of player to inspire this kind of discussion after he's gone.

 

 

Once again, YuBet's awesomeness proves true. Awesomeness at......well.......something.....Maybe it's causing discussions about how frustrating he is.

[MJLiverock]

Where is this stat showing Gonzo will be a significant overall improvement? Their WARs are virtually identical for 75% of their careers. I've never said Gonzo isn't a better defender (maybe overrated judging by how his defensive stats jump around) but when combined with his offense as WAR is attempting he ends up ranking right with YB 75% of the time. But I guess I should expect he will hit or exceed his peak abilities in the second half of his 30's? Improvement maybe but significant, no way judging by 75% of his actual career including his peak age years.

Just last year the difference between them was negligible, given that WAR can't be so precise given the vagaries of a single year of defense ratings that someone earlier pointed out. It's not like single year stats can't be overinflated to the good side or vice versa so I don't buy into their being any sort of significant difference in a WAR of betwen a guy at 0.5 and 1.0. If Gonzo puts up a 0.7-1.0 WAR that is not a significant improvement over the 0.5-0.7 YB likely puts up.

 

On another note that we may agree on, I am interested to see if Gamel can help on defense at first just by being able to catch a few more in the vicinity throws of 1b that Prince didn't get to.

[umphrey]

I hate UZR so much

 

They are equally bad/terrible with the bat, but there is no question we went from below average defense to above average defense

 

I am rooting against that vesting 2013 option though

[RockCoCougars]

My primary fear with Gonzalez is that he gets injured. If that happens, then what? Say what you want about Yuni, but you can't say that he wasn't durable.

[thebruce44]

Where is this stat showing Gonzo will be a significant overall improvement? Their WARs are virtually identical for 75% of their careers.

 

That stat actually is WAR. You just don't want to believe it. I'd post the numbers, but you already did.

[CheezWizHed]

Their WARs are virtually identical for 75% of their careers.

 

The main problem I have with that argument is that in order to say that, you are throwing out Gonzalez's best 25% and YB's worst 25%.

 

And from what I've read on what Gonzalez supporters are saying, that 25% probably represents the improvement expected (i.e. a small improvement, mainly on defense).

[Ennder]

Yep. Betancourts ceiling is pretty much Gonzalez's floor. So yeah when Yuni has a good year he can match a bad to average year from Gonzalez, this isn't the same as saying they are basically equal.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I think we can all agree that it takes a special kind of player to inspire this kind of discussion after he's gone.

 

Just when I thought I was out...they keep pulling me back in...dang you Yuni...

 

A planted tree placed strategically between 2nd and 3rd would be better than Yuni, although I will hand it to the guy...he ran into a couple hot streaks including the playoffs.

 

Gonzalez should be similar at the plate, but a huge upgrade defensively...hence a huge upgrade overall. I just hope he stays healthy.

[logan82]

A planted tree placed strategically between 2nd and 3rd would be better than Yuni,

Over at BCB it is a pan of lasagna. I think a tree or a an of lasagna would have drawn more walks than Yuni.

[reillymcshane]

A planted tree placed strategically between 2nd and 3rd would be better than Yuni,

Over at BCB it is a pan of lasagna. I think a tree or a an of lasagna would have drawn more walks than Yuni.

The lasagna or tree will probably draw more walks than Gonzalez. But Alex should smoke them in the field.

[Madtown343]

How do feel about 4 pitch strikeouts or 1 pitch pop ups? That might be the biggest difference between the two offensively. At least gonzo's AB works the pitcher a little more...

 

More HR, much better defense, and more experience with winning. gonzo>>>YB

[3and2Fastball]

Gonzalez will be OK. Certainly an upgrade defensively over Yuni B. My concern is: is there anywhere in the organization that we have an heir apparent at SS?

[Thurston Fluff]

A planted tree placed strategically between 2nd and 3rd would be better than Yuni

 

http://i684.photobucket.com/albums/vv208/ThurstonFluff/425792_10150646957013512_155696228511_9281112_1855421550_n-1.jpg

 

Last year's infield would have been so much better defensively with these three.

[monty57]

Gonzalez will be OK. Certainly an upgrade defensively over Yuni B. My concern is: is there anywhere in the organization that we have an heir apparent at SS?

 

Our AAA SS is likely going to be journeyman Edwin Maysonet. Josh Prince hit for a .718 OPS in high-A last year, but the Brewers don't seem to be too high on him, as they signed Bianchi and are slating him as the AA starter unless someone cliams him off waivers when he is (probably) taken off the 40-man roster to clear space for a more talented and useful player.

 

Outside of a trade, our current hopes lie with 19-year old Yadiel Rivera who spent last year between rookie ball (.248 avg / .285 OBP / .406 SLG / .691 OPS in 330 AB) and low A (.194 avg / .224 OBP / .262 SLG / .486 OPS in 103 AB), and if he falters, 17-year old Orlando Arcia in the Dominican League. Sadly, this means we'll either have to trade for someone or continue to fill the SS position through free agency for the foreseeable future.

 

Since Milwaukee only seems to trade prospects for veterans and not the other way around, I guess we get to hope & pray that in 5 or 6 years Arcia will be a mainstay in a Brewers' uniform. Until then, we get guys like Yuni or Gonzalez, who seems to be Yuni with defense.

[jerichoholicninja]

What ever happened to the Cuban short stop they signed like 5 years ago that everyone was excited about?

[Mass Haas]

What ever happened to the Cuban short stop they signed like 5 years ago that everyone was excited about?

 

Yohannis Perez -- already 24 when he began his Brewer "career", completely underwhelmed:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=perez-001yoh

[logan82]

I think he was the backup to Escobar in AA 4 years ago.