2012 HOF Ballot

[Baldkin]

I thought this was pretty cool:

http://darowski.com/ballot/

 

It has the HOF median on there, so you can really compare the players. What the three circles mean is linked down at the bottom of the page.

[topper09er]

Yeah, Larkin is the same player as Trammell except with a big plus on the bases. Trammell also averaged 119 games per season, same as Larkin. If either one of them could have had the durability of Derek Jeter they would be considered premium HOFers. (you can probably say that about a decent number of guys however) I forgot Trammell was still on the ballot, I would vote for him. As was mentioned earlier, I dont see how you could vote for Larkin but not Trammell unless you value the baserunning that much or think Larkin would be the most extreme borderline HOFer possible and Trammell is the first guy out. There will always be a best player not in the HOF. Larkin's most similar player is Trammell and Trammell's 2nd most similar is Larkin.

[TooLiveBrew]

I thought this was pretty cool:

http://darowski.com/ballot/

 

It has the HOF median on there, so you can really compare the players. What the three circles mean is linked down at the bottom of the page.

Nice find, that's a really useful format to compare the players

[Outlander]

Wow, Brad Radke has a bigger circle than Jack Morris.

[RockCoCougars]

Jack Morris is a guy who has been hurt by a high ERA, but to me he's a Hall of Famer. He was probably the best starting pitcher of the eighties, and I'm not sure who would be second (Dave Steib perhaps). A lot of his career stats were tarnished somewhat by his final few seasons (he started to decline in '89), not to mention that he played most of his career in a hitter's park with a short right field porch. The fact that he pitched one of the best games in World Series history in '91 should put him over the top.

[topper09er]

Stieb, Ryan, Blyleven, Hershiser and Clemens were all way better than Morris in the 80s. Morris belongs with guys like Saberhagen, Valenzuela, Gooden, Tudor and Welch, and hes not obviously the best pitcher from that group.

[gregmag]

I was just looking at Frank Howard for the Fielder thread, and I started to understand just how deeply the HoF has failed to consider shifts in offensive context. By way of quick and dirty comparison:

 

Dick Allen: 7,314 PA, 156 OPS+

Frank Howard: 7,353 PA, 142 OPS+

Boog Powell: 7,810 PA, 134 OPS+

Rocky Colavito: 7,559 PA, 132 OPS+

 

Orlando Cepeda: 8,695 PA, 133 OPS+

Willie McCovey: 9,686 PA, 147 OPS+

Harmon Killebrew, 9,831 PA, 143 OPS+

 

Jim Rice: 9,058 PA, 128 OPS+

Tony Perez: 10,861 PA, 122 OPS+

Andre Dawson: 10,769 PA, 119 OPS+

 

Eddie Murray: 12,817 PA, 129 OPS+

Dave Winfield: 12,358 PA, 130 OPS+

Reggie Jackson: 11,416 PA, 139 OPS+

Willie Stargell: 9,026 PA, 149 OPS+

Billy Williams: 10,519 PA, 133 OPS+

 

I'm not suggesting that these numbers end any arguments, but they should start a few. I've placed outstanding 1b/corner guys in four arbitrary groups: first, guys whose mid-careers were circa 1968 who aren't in the HoF; second, guys from that same era who are in the HoF; third, later-era players who are in the HoF and, IMHO, shouldn't be; fourth, later-era players who are in the HoF and, IMHO, belong there.

 

Like I said, this is quick and dirty. Obviously Dawson, for instance, deserves credit for playing some very good CF as a young man. Clearly longevity is a good thing, and you could graph the increased longevity / decreased OPS+ trend very neatly. Also, Dick Allen was a jerk. But still, I think Howard and Allen look like stronger HoF candidates than anybody in group 3. Whether they belong in the same club with the group 4 guys -- that's the hard question.

[Edited to add Powell and Killebrew per topper09er's suggestion below.]

[topper09er]

I was just looking at Frank Howard for the Fielder thread, and I started to understand just how deeply the HoF has failed to consider shifts in offensive context. By way of quick and dirty comparison:

 

Dick Allen: 7,314 PA, 156 OPS+

Frank Howard: 7,353 PA, 142 OPS+

Rocky Colavito: 7,559 PA, 132 OPS+

 

Orlando Cepeda: 8,695 PA, 133 OPS+

Willie McCovey: 9,686 PA, 147 OPS+

 

Jim Rice: 9,058 PA, 128 OPS+

Tony Perez: 10,861 PA, 122 OPS+

Andre Dawson: 10,769 PA, 119 OPS+

 

Eddie Murray: 12,817 PA, 129 OPS+

Dave Winfield: 12,358 PA, 130 OPS+

Reggie Jackson: 11,416 PA, 139 OPS+

Willie Stargell: 9,026 PA, 149 OPS+

Billy Williams: 10,519 PA, 133 OPS+

Nice lists, I totally agree. You could probably add Harmon Killebrew to group #2 and Boog Powell to group #1.

 

Albert Belle is this generations version of Dick Allen. Relatively short career, HUGE peak, big jerk (and 1 MVP which I am awarding to Belle in 1995) and little HOF love.

[RockCoCougars]

Stieb, Ryan, Blyleven, Hershiser and Clemens were all way better than Morris in the 80s. Morris belongs with guys like Saberhagen, Valenzuela, Gooden, Tudor and Welch, and hes not obviously the best pitcher from that group.

I disagree. Clemens and Hersheiser didn't even pitch half the decade. If you only want to use half the decade, I'd go with Steve Carlton. Blyleven missed an entire season, and really wasn't that good outside of a couple of years. You could make an argument for Steib and Ryan, but that's it.

[topper09er]

Jack Morris wasn't that good ever except for 1 game. Other than that he is just a compiler who is a little above average. Clemens in the 80s alone was more valuable than Morris' entire career.

[gregmag]

Jack Morris wasn't that good ever except for 1 game. Other than that he is just a compiler who is a little above average. Clemens in the 80s alone was more valuable than Morris' entire career.

I think you're being a little hard on Morris. I agree that he doesn't belong in the HoF, but for me he's a "Hall of Very Good" guy. He finished top 5 in Cy Young voting five times, top 10 two other times. Granting that Cy voters back then paid too much attention to wins, that's pretty high, consistent praise, especially for a guy who played most of his career in Detroit. He went 254-186 for his career, and I do put some stock in career wins -- they reflect both longevity and success over a range of support contexts. OTOH, his ERAs were definitely pedestrian, but I'm becoming uncertain how much stock to put in ERA. It seems, again, more reliable over time, which makes that an important mark against him.

 

His longevity and durability alone make him a valuable guy. I think he was a quality pitcher, just not quite HoF quality.

 

BTW, good catch on Powell and Killebrew; I added them to my post above.

[JimH5]

Jack Morris wasn't that good ever except for 1 game. Other than that he is just a compiler who is a little above average. Clemens in the 80s alone was more valuable than Morris' entire career.

 

175 Complete Games plus 5 more in the postseason.

28 Shutouts plus 1 more in the postseason.

 

He had more than just 1 good game.

[RockCoCougars]

Jack Morris wasn't that good ever except for 1 game.

 

Which one- the no hitter or the '91 World Series? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Baldkin]

I will never understand the love for Jack Morris.

 

The whole "Best pitcher of the 80's" seems just arbitrary to me, and he really wasn't that much better than any of the other guys who pitched 1500+ innings (since you apparently want to not include Clemens & Gooden, who were by far the best pitchers in the 80's).

He pitched one great World Series game, which everyone seems to remember.

As for JimH's stats: Blyleven had 242 CGs and 60 shutouts.

I think HOFamers need to be GREAT for an extended period of time, and Morris was never that guy. He was fortunate to play on great teams, so he won a lot of games, but I wouldn't call Tim Wakefield a hall of famer.

Oh, and there is this list.... #55 in WAR (including actives) career, for guys not in the HOF.

EDIT: Whoops, thats start of 2010, but as far as I know, he only moved up 1 spot (if no one else passed him).

[JimH5]

As for JimH's stats: Blyleven had 242 CGs and 60 shutouts.

 

For the record, I wouldn't have Morris on my ballot. Earlier I said I would pick Larkin, Bernie Williams & Lee Smith. I don't like Morris's ERA, and while I'd like to think that I could be sold on his candidacy, for now I'm out on him.

 

I was objecting to the statement that Morris wasn't that good ever except for 1 game.

 

I also object to what I feel is an over-reliance on WAR, without regard to other stats.

 

Case in point:

In 1983, Morris lead the league with 293 IP in 37 starts, had a 3.34 ERA, a league leading 232 Ks and a 3.4 WAR.

That year, Moose Haas threw 179 IP in 25 starts, had a 3.27 ERA and 75 Ks and a 3.9 WAR.

 

Does anyone really think that Haas's season was better than Morris's? WAR does.

 

This past year, Carlos Lee played half a season in LF and half a season at 1B, and he recorded a 2.1 defensive WAR.

Neither Keith Hernandez or Mark Grace ever had a single season with a 2.1 defensive WAR. Was Carlos Lee a better defender than Hernandez or Grace? No chance.

 

WAR is interesting, but I think it's flawed when it makes those kind of conclusions--and so when WAR is cited, I'm going to look with some skepticism.

[RockCoCougars]

Case in point:

In 1983, Morris lead the league with 293 IP in 37 starts, had a 3.34 ERA, a league leading 232 Ks and a 3.4 WAR.

That year, Moose Haas threw 179 IP in 25 starts, had a 3.27 ERA and 75 Ks and a 3.9 WAR.

 

I believe that was the year that Moose went 13-3? I thought that a pitcher's win/loss record was virtually meaningless.

[topper09er]

You need to understand the context better. Looking at the WAR values, Morris's WAR is seems low because he is credited with having an amazing defense behind him (meaning his ERA is artificially low). He had 16 runs saved from defense, Hass had 2 runs lost, according to 1 season of WAR data. If neutralized, it says Haas had 3.7 WAR and Morris 5.0 that season. When you get extreme single season defensive values in WAR, that is something to be skeptical of. Maybe a good time to look over at fangraphs and find the average WAR. Doing that,

 

Morris = 3.4, 6.2 --> 4.8 WAR 1983

Haas = 3.9, 3.1 --> 3.5 WAR 1983

 

Which is more in line with what you expected. You are criticizing something you don't understand

[1992casey]

Do we have enough data from that era to give defensive stats any credibility at all?

[RockCoCougars]

No way Haas was better than Morris in '83. From what I remember, Haas went down in late July/early August (about the same time the team went to seed). He was good that year, but not C.C. good or as valuable as a guy who threw nearly 300 innings with roughly the same ERA. I believe that County was considered to be a slight pitchers park on average, while a RH pitching in Detroit, definitely had some challenges with the short RF- kind of like a lefty in Fenway. I think in large part that explains Morris' relatively high career ERA.

 

Bottom line, the biggest problem that I have with WAR in a historical context is that it overrates defense (while using some sketchy metrics) and also overvalues certain positions, most specifically CF (which isn't THAT hard to play, unless you are in a huge stadium like Coors, Petco or a place with a deep center field like Houston. Historically, many parks were bandboxes, and with less ground to cover, center isn't that difficult to play. I can see placing a premium on catching and shortstop, but I've always thought that the premium placed on CF is unwarranted. Such wide disparities in WAR from website to website also cause me to question it's validity in general.

[Baldkin]

Do we have enough data from that era to give defensive stats any credibility at all?

Probably not for individual players for an individual season, but over the course of a season for a full team, (or a player for his career) yes, there is. They use (I believe) a "brute force" method of % of balls in play turned into outs by the defense, and then do a league-wide comparison, and then adjust based on the % of balls in play given up by the pitcher.

 

I hope that makes sense.

From B-R.com (which uses Total Zone):

--Rdef runs above or below average for this

pitcher's team defense. The team's overall defense weighted by the

percent of balls in play allowed by this pitcher.

[Baldkin]

I can see placing a premium on catching and shortstop, but I've always thought that the premium placed on CF is unwarranted. Such wide disparities in WAR from website to website also cause me to question it's validity in general.

Its not coming from some random decision to give CF a premium, it comes from years of defensive data. From guys who played both positions. An average CF is about 10 runs better than an average LF. (Sorry, that was the first blog post I came about, and it only has 1 seasons worth of data, but you can get the jist of it from there).

[RockCoCougars]

I can see placing a premium on catching and shortstop, but I've always thought that the premium placed on CF is unwarranted. Such wide disparities in WAR from website to website also cause me to question it's validity in general.

Its not coming from some random decision to give CF a premium, it comes from years of defensive data. From guys who played both positions. An average CF is about 10 runs better than an average LF. (Sorry, that was the first blog post I came about, and it only has 1 seasons worth of data, but you can get the jist of it from there).

Thanks for the link. I just gave it a quick read over lunch. I don't understand the whole runs/wins concept, but it appears that the CF thing is based on the number of balls historically hit to the position. Is that correct?

[Baldkin]

No, it actually comes from defensive data and how well guys performed who played both positions, relative to their peers. So, a guy who played both CF and LF in the same season would (typically) be an above average LF, and a below average CF. Over years and years of data, it would show time and time again that a guy who played LF or RF when compared to LF/RF would be worth about 10 runs more compared to the average LF/RF than he would be compared to the average CF.

 

The runs/wins correlation is simply that 10 runs is worth about 1 WAR over the course of a season in the current run environment.

[JimH5]

How do the fielding metrics handle the play where both the CF and LF (or RF) converge on a lazy fly ball, where either could make the catch, but one player (typically the CF) handles the play? It seems that there is at least one play per game like that.

 

Based on the dynamics of the team, there might be situations where the CF is actually better served to defer to the corner guy. In any case, there's only 1 putout to be recorded, and when outfielding range is measured by 2-5 chances per game, that one routine play could have a great impact on how the stats present the fielders.

[Baldkin]

An oldie, but a goodie.... Tango on Blyleven

 

As for the fielding play, they only give credit to the player who makes the play. The same way they only give credit to the 3B if he cuts off a ball going to the SS.