2012 HOF Ballot

[RockCoCougars]

If I was going to pick a borderline Yankee to get in, Thurman Munson, Don Mattingly or even Paul O'Neill would be ahead of Williams in my book. Bernie is overrated not only because he played for the Yankees, but he's also overrated by WAR in my view because he played a pedestrian center field.

[TooLiveBrew]

After getting some input from Principessa, I lean yes on Bernie Williams. She said his great athletic ability helped compensate for his bad instincts as a fielder... basically a scratch fielder but with a subpar arm. The man could hit, though, that's for sure.

 

 

Fair enough. I'd throw out Devon White right away

 

I think I would too, but his defense was a-mazing. Only reason I included him. I like the Steve Finley mention by topper, too. Another good comp. But Bernie's bat was so good, I guess I have to lean yes. I'll admit I tend to be a big-HOF guy as opposed to small-hall. There are so many guys voted in by the veterans committee, it'd be a shame not to honor a guy that was as good as Williams was.

EDIT: And Andruw Jones could have been

I would vote yes on him. I have little doubt he was one of the best defensive centerfielders of all-time at his peak. He also provided a lot of value on offense.

 

 

he's also overrated by WAR in my view because he played a pedestrian center field.

I don't mean this in a harsh way, but the fact that he could play a decent CF is kind of the whole point behind stats like WAR. Not many guys can & can hit to that level. Same reason why Jeter is (rightfully) regarded as a great shorstop.

[Baldkin]

My votes would go to Edgar, Raines, Bagwell and Trammell.

 

I don't think that Bernie Williams is good enough. I don't see him as anything different than Luis Gonzalez without the PEDs, great post season statistics might sway a borderline guy for me, but just being in the post season over and over again, being the byproduct of the Yankees money machine, won't make me vote for a guy.

 

Williams played in the 2nd most post season games of anyone in history, 121. So, his 80 RBI's are not that impressive. He had the benefit of TWO additional rounds of playoffs compared to the guys who played in the 50's, and 3 additional playoff spots in his own league.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'll go with Morris, Larkin and McGriff. McGriff's closet comparable is HOFer Willie McCovey, and I don't think there's been any hint of Crime Dog juicing. If that's the case, his numbers are worthy.

 

Bagwell on the other hand had a body that suggested enhancement and he was a teammate of known juicer Ken Caminiti.

[kramnoj]

but just being in the post season over and over again, being the byproduct of the Yankees money machine, won't make me vote for a guy.

 

The Yankees did outspend other teams, but not nearly to the extent that happens today. They won because they had a core that they developed and supplemented that core with smart signings. I would like to vote for Bernie, as CF aren't represented to the point that other positions are, but I think he just misses even my big hall.

 

I would probably vote for Bagwell, Larkin, Edgar, Crime Dog, Raines, Trammel. I would have to look closer at Larry Walker. His career was too short, but he was a great player.

[Invader3K]

Bagwell and Larkin would be the only two I would vote for. I think most of the others mentioned belong in the "Hall of Very Good" category (ie. they can be on their respective team's Walk of Fame or whatever).

[JohnBriggs12]

but just being in the post season over and over again, being the byproduct of the Yankees money machine, won't make me vote for a guy.

 

The Yankees did outspend other teams, but not nearly to the extent that happens today. They won because they had a core that they developed and supplemented that core with smart signings. I would like to vote for Bernie, as CF aren't represented to the point that other positions are, but I think he just misses even my big hall.

 

I would probably vote for Bagwell, Larkin, Edgar, Crime Dog, Raines, Trammel. I would have to look closer at Larry Walker. His career was too short, but he was a great player.

Sorry I'm not buying that. Yankees had home grown talent, but their rotation was bought and paid for for years: Wells, Clemens, Cone, Mussina, and on and on. Only Pettitte was home grown.

[topper09er]

But you can't in one post discredit postseason stats, claiming that

being able to record them is a matter of luck, and in another post,

point to some postseason stats and then use those to advance your case.

 

I am not citing his putrid world series performance to advance my case, but actually to discredit your case. You want to give him all this credit for postseason play, when it really mattered, yet he was horrible in the world series. I'm trying to show that you are really giving him credit for merely existing in the postseason without any standard for his performance. None of his postseason numbers are very impressive on a per game basis, he just compiled because he had a lot of chances. Someone had to play CF for the 1990s Yankees, and whoever that was would get a lot of postseason chances. I just think you are weighing his postseason way, way too much. You make it sound like you would elect basically any player with 30 WAR who played on a few world series winning teams in their career.

 

He did it at a tough defensive position, playing every day, hitting in significant spots in the lineup.

 

Now you are giving him credit for playing CF when he was literally the worst CFer of all-time. That is like saying Yuni Betancourt deserves credit for playing a tough defensive position, when actually his play at this important position hurt his team. He also only played 150+ games twice in his entire career.

 

He got the hits in the most important games of those seasons while others didn't.

 

How do you know, so no one else in the league or on the Yankees played well in September, or if they did it was only because they weren't in the high pressure situations of Williams and would have surely choked? Remember, Williams choked in the World Series. Also, in his career his September OPS was .822, lower than his career average. So he did not play his best in the most important games.

 

Again, I dont care how Williams ranked among his peers in the 1990s, especially when you concede there are 2 slam dunk choices ahead of him, Griffey and Edmonds. He should be compared to all CFers. Another problem is his last 4 seasons, where he complied counting stats while accumulating 0.4 WAR, 0.1 WAR/season. Not very good. If you disregard these compiling years he finished with:

 

Year	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB
1991-2002	NYY	1537	6873	5958	1066	1833	353	52	226	998	138	80	827	927	.308	.392	.498	.890	133	2968	153	31	9	48	78

The rate stats look nice but < 7000 PAs is not very good for the HOF.

[topper09er]

Here is the list of CFers in their first 12 seasons, by OPS+

 

1) 182 Ty Cobb

2) 176 Mickey Mantle

3) 166 Tris Speaker

4) 160 Willie Mays

5) 158 Joe DiMaggio

6) 147 Ken Griffey

7) 144 Hack Wilson

8) 143 Duke Snider

9) 139 Edd Roush

10) 137 Larry Doby

11) 137 Jim Edmonds

12) 134 Fred Lynn

13) 133 Earl Averill

14) 133 Bernie Williams

15) 128 Cesar Cedeno

16) 126 Ginger Beaumont

17) 125 Earle Combs

18) 124 Kirby Puckett

19) 124 Rick Monday

20) 124 Roy Thomas

 

And thats not even including HOFers Billy Hamilton and Hugh Duffy, whose first 12 years were in the 1890s so I didn't count them.

 

And

among the entire list, Williams was by far the worst defensive player.

Also, nice shoutout for Ginger Beaumont, from Rochester, WI.

[craigharmann]

Jack Morris, maybe. Larkin was good, but is he HOF worthy? I don't know. Other than those two, that's pretty much it. The rest of the field have too many clouds surrounding them with steroids. I'd start going back to guys in the 50's, 60's and 70's than the guys who are out there.

[Invader3K]

I'd start going back to guys in the 50's, 60's and 70's than the guys who are out there.

I still say Dave Parker should be in, given some of the recent inductees (Dawson, Rice, etc). Doesn't seem like it will ever happen, though.

[gregmag]

I'll go with Morris, Larkin and McGriff. McGriff's closet comparable is HOFer Willie McCovey, and I don't think there's been any hint of Crime Dog juicing. If that's the case, his numbers are worthy.

 

Bagwell on the other hand had a body that suggested enhancement and he was a teammate of known juicer Ken Caminiti.

The Bagwell steroids question is the big elephant in this room. I can't pretend to have an answer, but I don't think the two points you're suggesting are enough to hang him. The biggest reasons I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt are his consistency and his routine decline. Most known chronic juicers either had freakish power spurts (Bonds, McGwire, Caminiti) or played well until exceptionally advanced ages (Bonds, Clemens). Bagwell followed a normal development curve with a fairly standard decline. He was great, but nothing he did at his peak was out of character for how he started out. He had one freak season, 1994, but that was driven by an abnormal BA, not abnormal power. I'm not saying this is conclusive, but I need to see a stronger case to conclude that he juiced.

 

Good catch on crime dog -- I forgot about him, and I think he belongs. He tends to fall between the cracks because he moved around a lot, never had a season that stood out from the rest of his career, and slugged clean while some others were slugging dirty. But man, was he good for a long time. He was in the middle of lineups for a succession of good Toronto and Atlanta teams, and he was an on-base machine. I like him quite a bit better than Perez, Rice, or Dawson. For me, those guys epitomize the "Hall of Very Good," while McGriff is the player of that type -- big corner slugger -- who clears the bar.

[patrickgpe]

Martinez and Larkin, I'm on the fence on Morris and Smith but in the end i don't think they are Hall of Famers.

[brettac1]

Totally agree on McGriff. He was awesome.

 

Otherwise, I like end's list. I always hope for Rock Raines to get in.

 

As far as Bagwell, I don't think it's fair to make him guilty by association. He was a great player and belongs in the HOF.

 

I'll never get behind Jack Morris. I love the '91 Series as much as anyone, but I think the guy was just average. I'd rather see Tommy John get in, though I think that's up to the Vets now.

[Outlander]

Bagwell, Larkin, Raines and Walker for me. Hopefully at least two make it because starting next year it is going to be very hard to get in because the performance enhancing users will be clogging up the ballot for a potential 15 years.

[joepepsi]

Count me in for McGriff too.

 

I think it was Bill James who wrote comparing a player to fringe HOF inductees is not a valid argument for that player's induction. That's kind of what the Bernie Williams argument feels like.

 

Bernie was a very good/excellent hitter for 9 straight seasons. Before and after he wasn't anything special. Even though I hate the Yankees, he never bothered me and I always liked him as a player. I don't think he quite makes it, but I'm still listening to the arguments. Bernie being elected will be a lot easier to swallow than if Mattingly ever gets in. Donnie Baseball's career is remarkably overrated.

[RockCoCougars]

Crime Dog didn't need to juice. He was a master of the Tom Emanski training regimen.

[bando1234]

I have probally said it 10 times before. I would love to see M innie Monoso make it in. My vote goes to Raines,Bagwell, and Larkin.

[kramnoj]

Sorry I'm not buying that. Yankees had home grown talent, but their rotation was bought and paid for for years: Wells, Clemens, Cone, Mussina, and on and on. Only Pettitte was home grown.

 

96 - Cone and Rogers were making $5M each. Not a small amount, but not banking the break either.

98 - Cone up to $6.7M, Wells at less than $5M

99 - Cone up to $9.5M but definitely worth it, Clemens at $8.25M, but he was traded from Toronto, meaning it wasn't just the Yankee money machine that thought he deserved that salary.

2000 - Cone at $12M and bad, Clemens at $6.35M.

 

Mussina joined the Yankees in 2001, so he wasn't there for the previous 4 WS years.

 

In 1998, the Yankees were actually outspent by the Orioles, who were relatively close in other years.

[JimH5]

Check out Brian Kenny on tonight's Clubhouse Confidential SUPPORTING Bernie Williams' candidacy for the HOF!

 

Affirmation, Baby!

[Outlander]

Great, I thought Williams wouldn't even get the necessary 5%, now I'm thinking he will be another guy clogging the ballot for 15 years.

[The Truth]

The perception was/is of Barry Larkin as a certain Hall of Famer but his stats in context aren't as amazing. I'd still vote for him though. Lee Smith to me is a no-brainer Hall of Famer. Bagwell deserves it, too, in my opinion

[topper09er]

The perception was/is of Barry Larkin as a certain Hall of Famer but his stats in context aren't as amazing.

Larkin's rank among SS all-time

-- 9th in HRs

-- 13th in Hits and in Times On Base

-- 10th in Runs

-- 15th in RBI

-- 12th in OPS+

-- 8th in WAR

--6th WAR/PA

 

He has the same OPS+ as Derek Jeter with more SBs at a better rate and about 15 wins better on defense. The only plus Jeter has is that he averaged 150 games/season and Larkin only averaged 119.

[The Truth]

Thanks for the reminder of Larkin's stats. You are of course correct. I was making the mistake of comparing Larkin to all Hall of Famers, instead of comparing his stats to other SS's

[RockCoCougars]

In my view, Trammell was as good or better than Larkin, and he's been largely ignored. It's still amazing to me that perhaps the best team of my lifetime (1984 Tigers) has no Hall of Fame players.