2012 HOF Ballot

[jjgott]

Per Deadspin: http://deadspin.com/5863855/the-baseball-hall-of-fame-ballot-is-out-and-it-seems-no-one-good-retired-in-2006

(Players in Their First Year of Eligibility in Bold)

Jeff Bagwell, Jeromy Burnitz, Vinny Castilla, Juan Gonzalez, Brian Jordan, Barry Larkin, Javy Lopez, Edgar Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Bill Mueller, Terry Mulholland, Dale Murphy, Phil Nevin, Rafael Palmeiro, Brad Radke, Tim Raines, Tim Salmon, Ruben Sierra, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Larry Walker, Bernie Williams, Tony Womack, Eric Young.

Yikes, those first-timers are pretty bad.

I guess I'd vote for Larkin and maybe Lee Smith. Otherwise, not so much.

[JimH5]

In order, I'd choose Barry Larkin, Bernie Williams & Lee Smith.

[thumperden]

There is no way any 2006 retirees ever make the list. Larkin, McGwire, Morris, and Palmeiro the more intriguing (not necessarily the best) prospects. McGwire and Palmeiro for steroids however. I'd like to see more love for Dale Murphy though.

[topper09er]

Is everyone ignoring Bagwell for steroid reasons, I haven't really thought of him as obviously using? He is the best player on the ballot by far. I would vote for Bagwell, Larkin, Raines, McGwire and Palmeiro because I don't care about the juice.

 

It will be interesting to see how much support the totally undeserving Bernie Williams gets due to being a "winner" on the Yankees.

[TooLiveBrew]

Off that ballot, I think the guys I'd narrow it down to first would be: Bagwell, Juan-Gon, Larkin, Lopez, Martinez, Mattingly, McGriff, McGwire, Morris, Murphy, Raines, Trammell, Walker, Williams. Not that I'd vote for everyone there, but that'd be my first cut. I guess my quick-&-dirty final ballot here would be: Bagwell, Larkin, Martinez, Morris, Raines, Murphy, & Walker.

 

Javy Lopez probably should get more attention than he does, just given position.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd vote for Jack Morris, and that's probably it. I used to be on the Lee Smith bandwagon, but as the years go on with closers, his career doesn't look so good. Bagwell was a juicer in my mind, too many coincidences for him not to have been. Further, though he seems to be gaining steam, I don't see how you could vote for Larkin if you don't vote for Trammell.

[JimH5]

It will be interesting to see how much support the totally undeserving Bernie Williams gets due to being a "winner" on the Yankees.

 

You've got to remove those quotation marks around the word winner, because he actually was a winner. He won 4 World Series rings and 6 League Championships.

 

Yes, being part of the Yankees made that much easier, but he still did it. He also did it at a demanding defensive position. He had a career OPS+ of 125. He's among the leaders in all the postseason counting stats.

 

I'm not saying he's Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle. But the Hall isn't just about them. There's Billy Williams and Kirby Puckett and Enos Slaughter and Earle Combs. I would put Williams with that group.

[reillymcshane]

Tony Womack. .317 OBP and 36 career HR. Awesome.

[topper09er]

It will be interesting to see how much support the totally undeserving Bernie Williams gets due to being a "winner" on the Yankees.

 

You've got to remove those quotation marks around the word winner, because he actually was a winner. He won 4 World Series rings and 6 League Championships.

 

Yes, being part of the Yankees made that much easier, but he still did it. He also did it at a demanding defensive position. He had a career OPS+ of 125. He's among the leaders in all the postseason counting stats.

 

I'm not saying he's Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle. But the Hall isn't just about them. There's Billy Williams and Kirby Puckett and Enos Slaughter and Earle Combs. I would put Williams with that group.

He did not win 4 World Series, this isn't tennis. He was on 4 WS winning teams. Its not that being on the Yankees made that much easier, it made it possible. Unless you suggesting you could have put Bernie Williams on any team and they would have won the world series.

 

He's a lot like Derek Jeter, vastly overrated especially on defense. Jeter is a HOF player but people pretend like he is the greatest SS of all-time (when coincidentally a real contender for the best SS of all-time plays right next to him). Also Andy Pettitte, who is the same pitcher as Chuck Finley, except he has a lot of wins because he was on the Yankees mostly.

 

Williams is a solid player who is not HOF material. He played a horrible defensive CF, actually the worst defensive CF of all-time. His most similar players is a nice list, but none of them are in the HOF or have strong cases

1. Bobby Abreu (909)
2. Paul O'Neill (905)
3. Bob Johnson (892)
4. Bobby Bonilla (884)
5. Will Clark (881)
6. Ellis Burks (871)
7. Magglio Ordonez (865)
8. Reggie Smith (864)
9. Edgar Martinez (860)
10. Garret Anderson (860)

Williams had 47 WAR (average bb-ref and FG), he not in the same league as Billy Williams (64 WAR), Kirby Puckett was a special case due to a shortened career and Enos Slaughter does not belong either or is borderline at least, and he is better than Williams anyways. Earle Combs accumulated about the same amount of value as Williams in 3000 less PAs, and he is also a horrible selection due to being on another Yankee dynasty. Hopefully the HOF will stop making the same mistakes by electing guys lucky enough to be lesser contributors on winning teams.

[NievesNoNO]

I'd vote Bagwell and Edgar Martinez. I used to love to watch Edgar hit. He's one of the best pure hitters in the last 30 years in my mind.

[endaround]

Bagwell, Larkin, Martinez, Raines and Trammell. Walker is such a hard case given Colorado. McGwire probably should get in at somepoint but it won't be soon. Williams had a great peak but too many seasons that weren't as good.

[CheezWizHed]

How can you not vote for Burnitz? He is the all-time career leader in bats helicoptering into the stands! I mean, the Babe has nothing on him there. (Well, I'm pretty sure of that anyway, BaseballReference.com has conveniently left that all important counting stat off the list).

[TooLiveBrew]

I used to be on the Lee Smith bandwagon, but as the years go on with closers, his career doesn't look so good. Bagwell was a juicer in my mind, too many coincidences for him not to have been.

 

I have a really, really hard time with the relief pitcher question. Even when guys are dominant for most or all of their careers... how do you reconcile just how few innings they pitch? Take a comparison between David Cone (3.46 ERA in ~3,000 IP) & Trevor Hoffman (2.87 in ~1,100). I don't think anyone could convince me that Hoffman was the more impactful, important, or valuable player... but he's probably going to be a first-ballot inductee. Meanwhile, David Cone & the many SPs like him are hardly mentioned as HOF candidates. My point isn't that Cone is a surefire HOFer, but that Hoffman... is?

 

And on Bagwell, I always thought he looked the part of a juicer, but it's not really fair to just assume he was with no proof. Then again, it's not really fair to assume McGwire & Rafa Palmeiro were the only guys off this ballot that did juice. What a pain in the butt.

 

Further, though he seems to be gaining steam, I don't see how you could vote for Larkin if you don't vote for Trammell.

 

Yeah, I was really on the fence on Trammell. You're probably right that it's a bit arbitrary for anyone (myself included) to opt for one & not the other.

[1992casey]

I used to be on the Lee Smith bandwagon, but as the years go on with closers, his career doesn't look so good.

 

Before deciding on a yea or nay, I think it' necessary to look at the context of his career. Over half of it came before the closer's role was invented.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, I'd actually be more inclined to vote for a Rollie Fingers or Danny Plesac (just to use Brewers examples of RP usage) than a John Axford or Trevor Hoffman. More innings pitched, more value provided.

 

I love looking back at Fingers's career -- he was just an unreal asset. From '69-'80, he averaged 120 IP with a 2.95 ERA. For comparison, Smith averaged 86 IP & a 2.87 ERA from '82-'93. Basically the same ERA, but Fingers gave you 30-40 more innings in a given season. I wish the corny phrase I sometimes like to throw the trademark symbol behind was still Fireman™, instead of Closer™.

[berniebrewer4life]

Bagwell, Martinez, and Larkin. Martinez won't get in tho.

[JimH5]

It will be interesting to see how much support the totally undeserving Bernie Williams gets due to being a "winner" on the Yankees.

 

You've got to remove those quotation marks around the word winner, because he actually was a winner. He won 4 World Series rings and 6 League Championships.

 

Yes, being part of the Yankees made that much easier, but he still did it. He also did it at a demanding defensive position. He had a career OPS+ of 125. He's among the leaders in all the postseason counting stats.

 

I'm not saying he's Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle. But the Hall isn't just about them. There's Billy Williams and Kirby Puckett and Enos Slaughter and Earle Combs. I would put Williams with that group.

He did not win 4 World Series, this isn't tennis. He was on 4 WS winning teams. Its not that being on the Yankees made that much easier, it made it possible. Unless you suggesting you could have put Bernie Williams on any team and they would have won the world series.

 

He's a lot like Derek Jeter, vastly overrated especially on defense. Jeter is a HOF player but people pretend like he is the greatest SS of all-time (when coincidentally a real contender for the best SS of all-time plays right next to him). Also Andy Pettitte, who is the same pitcher as Chuck Finley, except he has a lot of wins because he was on the Yankees mostly.

 

Williams is a solid player who is not HOF material. He played a horrible defensive CF, actually the worst defensive CF of all-time. His most similar players is a nice list, but none of them are in the HOF or have strong cases

1. Bobby Abreu (909)
2. Paul O'Neill (905)
3. Bob Johnson (892)
4. Bobby Bonilla (884)
5. Will Clark (881)
6. Ellis Burks (871)
7. Magglio Ordonez (865)
8. Reggie Smith (864)
9. Edgar Martinez (860)
10. Garret Anderson (860)

Williams had 47 WAR (average bb-ref and FG), he not in the same league as Billy Williams (64 WAR), Kirby Puckett was a special case due to a shortened career and Enos Slaughter does not belong either or is borderline at least, and he is better than Williams anyways. Earle Combs accumulated about the same amount of value as Williams in 3000 less PAs, and he is also a horrible selection due to being on another Yankee dynasty. Hopefully the HOF will stop making the same mistakes by electing guys lucky enough to be lesser contributors on winning teams.

 

Agreed that Williams wasn't a good CF. He took a lot of bad routes to balls. But he was good enough to play there--certainly better than O'Neill or Abreu or Knoblauch or Soriano would have been.

 

To use the B-R similarity scores doesn't do Williams justice, as it completely ignores the postseason. He had an .850 career OPS in 545 postseason plate appearances. He scored 83 postseason runs and 223 postseason total bases. Those are good things and should count in his favor, even if his peers in the league didn't play in the postseason.

 

Besides Griffey, is there an AL centerfielder from this era who is more deserving?

 

 

 

And I don't think Jeter is the best SS of all time. . .just the dreamiest.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Besides Griffey, is there an AL centerfielder from this era who is more deserving?

 

I don't think what league a guy played in is very relevant, but Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmonds, & even Devon White come to mind. Andruw Jones if you ditch the AL caveat. Now I don't mean that I think 100% that all of those guys are better or more deserving, just that I'd have to weigh my options.

[joepepsi]

Bagwell, Larkin, Martinez, Raines and Trammell.

I like this list. No one else really feels like fighting for from the eligibles.

 

I would fight for Lou Whitaker and Ted Simmons, however. Had they been Yankees.....well you know how that would have turned out.

[JimH5]

Besides Griffey, is there an AL centerfielder from this era who is more deserving?

 

I don't think what league a guy played in is very relevant, but Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmonds, & even Devon White come to mind. Andruw Jones if you ditch the AL caveat. Now I don't mean that I think 100% that all of those guys are better or more deserving, just that I'd have to weigh my options.

 

Fair enough. I'd throw out Devon White right away, but Lofton is a fair comp. Both guys reached base around 3400 times, Lofton was a much better defender and base stealer, but Williams had more power. Williams performed much better in the post season than Lofton.

 

I think that Edmonds is a Hall of Famer. And Andruw Jones could have been. . .just not sure about his .339 career OBP and 111 OPS+. His case will come down to how much I trust the defensive numbers. . .because he gets a ton of value for his defense, and I don't know yet if I'm ready to buy those metrics--though Harry Hooper and Mazeroski are there much for their defense. . .so we'll see.

 

My point on Bernie is that being in the postseason isn't a neutral. It's a good thing. You get extra credit for that.

 

I don't know how he would have been on the Padres or the Pirates. Without the postseason, he wouldn't have nearly the case that he does as an all-time postseason stat compiler.

 

But he did compile those stats--more than just about anyone else.

[topper09er]

Williams in the world series: .208/.319/.358 in 141 PAs. Ouch.

 

Also, I don't care if there were better CFs in the AL during his career, this is the HOF, not the 1990s AL all-star team. But since you asked,

Griffey

Lofton

Edmonds

Puckett

Beltran

A Jones

Mike Cameron

 

And this group that is pretty comparable

Devon White

Lenny Dykstra

Brett Butler

Steve Finley

[topper09er]

"My point on Bernie is that being in the postseason isn't a neutral. It's a good thing. You get extra credit for that."

 

Its your opinion that he should get extra credit, it is not a fact. Many people ignore the postseason because they feel any single player did not do anything to get those chances so you basically giving someone credit for being lucky. If you think the HOF should be full of the all-time greats and guys who were lucky enough to be parts of dynasties I guess that is your opinion. Its not mine at all.

[gregmag]

Bagwell, Larkin, Martinez, Raines and Trammell.

I like this list. No one else really feels like fighting for from the eligibles.

 

I would fight for Lou Whitaker and Ted Simmons, however. Had they been Yankees.....well you know how that would have turned out.

I agree 100% with this, which I mention only because 100% agreement on this topic is extremely unusual.

 

Great debate on B. Williams from both sides. I think how to weigh the postseason is very hard. I don't agree with what seems to be topper09er's view (sorry if I'm reading you wrong) that HOF voting should disregard the postseason. Every player gets the opportunities he gets. Some are luckier than others, and where the postseason is concerned, a good player who gets to the postseason isn't merely lucky. That said, I'm uncomfortable making the postseason a huge part of a player's case, and I think in Williams' case it has to be. I think he's borderline at best, and even with his postseason work, I wouldn't vote for him. This isn't just because I hate the Yankees, either (although I do, passionately); I've argued here that Posada looks to have a strong HOF case. But Williams just wasn't special enough for long enough, IMHO.

[Team Canada]

Poor Tim Raines.

 

 

I agree with endaround's list.

Williams can go in the Hall of Very Good with all the other borderline candidates.

[JimH5]

"My point on Bernie is that being in the postseason isn't a neutral. It's a good thing. You get extra credit for that."

 

Its your opinion that he should get extra credit, it is not a fact. Many people ignore the postseason because they feel any single player did not do anything to get those chances so you basically giving someone credit for being lucky. If you think the HOF should be full of the all-time greats and guys who were lucky enough to be parts of dynasties I guess that is your opinion. Its not mine at all.

 

-------------------------------

Williams in the world series: .208/.319/.358 in 141 PAs. Ouch.

 

Also, I don't care if there were better CFs in the AL during his career, this is the HOF, not the 1990s AL all-star team. But since you asked,

Griffey

Lofton

Edmonds

Puckett

Beltran

A Jones

Mike Cameron

 

And this group that is pretty comparable

Devon White

Lenny Dykstra

Brett Butler

Steve Finley

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

After this one, I'll give you the last word. . .I don't think we're going to convince each other of our own rightness--

 

But you can't in one post discredit postseason stats, claiming that being able to record them is a matter of luck, and in another post, point to some postseason stats and then use those to advance your case. They either matter or they don't. I think they do. Williams played on teams that won more pennants and World Series than any of those guys you listed. And being on the winning side is better than not winning. He did it at a tough defensive position, playing every day, hitting in significant spots in the lineup. He hit 22 homers in the postseason, 2nd all-time. He drove in 80 runs, most of all time. He's 2nd in runs, 2nd in total bases, 2nd in doubles in the postseason.

 

Of course being a Yankee gave him possibilities that wouldn't have existed had he been a Brewer. But so what? He got the hits in the most important games of those seasons while others didn't.

 

Even so, using the list that you provided, I'll use just regular season stats. . .and I've already conceded that Griffey is a better candidate and that Edmonds is a Hall-of-Famer to me. . .

 

On to the stats:

 

Williams has an OPS+ of 125. Puckett is next at 124; Beltran 121; Dykstra 120; A Jones 111; Butler 110; Lofton 107; Cameron 105; Finley 104; White 98. Williams is boosted by his OBP (381, tops among all of those listed), though his slugging (477) is quite respectable (topped only by Beltran 496 and A Jones 488).

 

Times on base by walk or hit: Butler 3504; Bernie 3405; Finley 3392; Lofton 3373; Puckett 2754; A Jones 2750; Beltran 2748; Cameron 2567; White 2475; Dykstra 1938

 

RBI: Bernie leads with 1257; A Jones 1255; Finley 1167; Beltran 1146; Puckett 1085; Cameron 968; White 846; Lofton 781; Butler; 578; Dykstra 404. Modern stats like to discredit RBI as not being that meaningful, but it's surely better to drive in a run than to leave a guy on base.

 

Runs: Again, an admittedly team-reliant stat, but scoring is better than not scoring. Williams (1366) comes in 3rd, behind Lofton (1528) and Finley (1443).

 

Total Bases: Williams is 113th all-time, with 3756. That's more than Dale Murphy (3733), Edgar Martinez (3718), Jim Edmonds (3615), Andruw Jones (3595), Puckett (3453), Lofton (3433), Beltran (3359), Devon White (3078), Butler (3076), Cameron (3035). Finley is 69th all time (4157), though his career arc is suspicious (36 HR as a 39 year-old, while hitting just 37 total before his age 30 season).

 

Williams hasn't had even a hint of controversy regarding PEDs, and while none of us can be absolutely sure of anyone, he didn't have any of the Brady Anderson-like seasons to boost his stats.

 

His case is interesting, as a lot of it is built on the postseason. He didn't come close to 3000 hits. He wasn't a true slugger, and he was a bad centerfielder--though probably would have been okay in LF (we'll never know). He was certainly a product of the Yankees environment, but he was also a key contributor to those teams which were a modern dynasty.

 

Griffey's in. Edmonds should go in. And I'd put Bernie there, too.