Brewers Offer Arby to Prince and Krod

[TooLiveBrew]

Since we have depleted the farm system in recent years, and have blocked our top prospects, who will fill out the "inexpensive star player" roles in a couple of years?

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Brewers go after a well-developed college bat at the top of their draft this year. Either that or a really high-ceiling HS bat (which I'd prefer, but my guess is they'll pick someone closer to ready for MLB).

 

 

We've pretty much destroyed any trade value of Green, who now will be stuck in AAA or on the MLB bench for the next three years.

 

I don't think his trade value has been destroyed. I also don't think Green is the caliber of player that you worry about blocking. Is he a good hitter & useful player for a team that needs to keep its costs down? Yes. But he's definitely not the type of hitter you can't find pretty regularly (imo). I think Ramirez should be expected to outhit him by a wide margin in 2012, & quite possibly for the entirety of his three-year contract.

 

tl;dr - I like Green, but I think he's terribly overvalued on BF.net

[narwhalattack]

For the upcoming draft I'm hoping that the Brewers go with the HS route. Perhaps a HS arm or two, along with a couple of HS bats.

One thing I don't like is how this club always want to keep the illusion of being in contention, hence shelling off prospects for expensive vets and not allowing rookies to play. The FO never wants to admit that they're not contending.

[endaround]

And people constantly act like the Brewers never draft high school arms.

[Ennder]

I don't know about that. If the Brewers under Melvin had put mainly just a high scoring team on the field with no pitching that resulted in continued losing, no playoff berths, and no real contention for playoff berths, odds are attendance wouldn't have risen much.

 

It was the 2007 season when Melvin acquired Sabathia, CC went on that amazing run, and the team ended up making the playoffs that really made attendance rise to levels never seen before in franchise history. Since that 2007 season in which attendance jumped from 2.3 to 2.9 million, the Brewers have had three straight year of 3 million plus come through the Miller Park gates. Next year will likely be a 4th straight year of over three million. So yea, baseball fans do enjoy seeing home runs fly out of the park, but above all else, it's winning and at least the legit potential to make the playoffs which really brings fans in.

 

That's why foe baffling reasons when some people try to negatively analyze the Sabathia trade in retrospect, they often forget a very key benefit to the Brewers. Besides the fact that none of the players Cleveland received have amounted to much, i really believe that second half of the 2007 season truly revived the love for Brewers baseball again here in Milwaukee. Sabathia starts at Miller Park became must see events. The ballpark was electric when he pitched and as the team closed in on a playoff berth. Fans had a great time at the park and kept returning. The city as a whole was talking about Brewers baseball again, not just waiting for Packers football to start. None of that happens without the Sabathia trade.

That is exactly what they did the first few years and attendance shot up quite a bit. The sole reason attendance started to jump was the offense and that is the quickest way to put an 'ok' team on the field. Like I said from a long term talent standpoint it isn't the best way to fix things but from a put fans in the stands in the next 5 years standpoint which is what they were facing with a new park and a franchise completely in the dumps it is probably the optimal path to take. It is lower risk and more exciting to the casual fan. Even before Sabathia and the playoff run the attendance was growing 2-3M a year and to be honest the easiest way to get up to a .500ish win team is draft a bunch of big bats since the flame out rate isn't nearly as high. It isn't the best way to get to 90 wins but that wasn't the original goal imo, the original goal when they started the rebuild was to get the fan base back.

 

I think it is important to always remember just how terrible this franchise was at one point. We had almost no good major league talent and almost no minor league talent, it was a complete shambles that had to be rebuilt from ground up. When Melvin took over we had already started to build the minor league system a little but the franchise was still in sad shape even then. It was a 10 year project at that point and 10 years later the franchise is in a much much better place, even if we are looking at a gap in minor league talent atm.

[JohnBriggs12]

16 of 33 games is a foolish stat. We saw this argument when people said Wayne Franklin was a good pitcher because the Brewers won games he started.

 

By my count, 6 of those Brewers' losses in Marcum starts were actually quality starts. He could very easily have had 22 of 33 games with wins.

 

I would like to have basic discussions about an extension with him, but I would also make the contract contingent upon the Brewers seeing proof of Marcum's arm health. He had a bum shoulder last spring, and pitched in Sept/Oct like someone that was either tired or hurt.

 

Eight times Marcum started the Brewers scored 6 or more runs. In those games the Brewers were 4-4. The rest of the starters and the result when team scored 6 or more: Greinke: 14-2, Gallardo: 11-2,

Narveson: 12-0, Wolf: 7-1, Estrada: 1-0.

 

To summarize, with anyone but Marcum starting, when the Brewers scored 6 or more runs they were 45-5, a .900 winning percentage. With Marcum in those instances they were .500. He did win his share of games where runs were at a premium, but he didn't do well when Brewers got him runs (including the game when Marcum himself hit his GS).

[Ennder]

The sample of 8 starts is so small that it would be hard to put any real meaning to it. Sounds like searching for goofy stats to try to prop up your opinion instead of actually looking at stats to see if your point is valid or not. Marcum was one of the better pitchers in the NL last year, hard to really complain about his regular season performance, if we get that every year from him we'll be happy. The post season obviously needs to improve.

[joepepsi]

In each those 4 losses where the team scored 6 runs and Marcum started, he didn't get a decision. That means the bullpen lost each of those games. You might as well blame Craig Counsell for those losses. It's looking like you are just grasping at straws to justify your dislike of the player.

 

Marcum had 3 bad starts in September and two bad starts in the playoffs when they really needed him. For the season he had 20 quality starts out of 33, including 6 in a row from Aug 9 through the first week of September. Yo, 21 of 33, Greinke 19 of 28 in QS, Wolf 21 of 33, Narveson 12 of 30.

 

Marcum had the lowest run support of any 5 starters at 3.86, although Wolf's 3.96 was close. Narveson had a shade under 5 runs support per game. Greinke and Yo both had over 5 per game of support.

[TheCrew]

That is exactly what they did the first few years and attendance shot up quite a bit. The sole reason attendance started to jump was the offense and that is the quickest way to put an 'ok' team on the field. Like I said from a long term talent standpoint it isn't the best way to fix things but from a put fans in the stands in the next 5 years standpoint which is what they were facing with a new park and a franchise completely in the dumps it is probably the optimal path to take. It is lower risk and more exciting to the casual fan. Even before Sabathia and the playoff run the attendance was growing 2-3M a year and to be honest the easiest way to get up to a .500ish win team is draft a bunch of big bats since the flame out rate isn't nearly as high. It isn't the best way to get to 90 wins but that wasn't the original goal imo, the original goal when they started the rebuild was to get the fan base back.

Attendance went way down after the opening year and dropped even more the 3rd year; obviously you expect a dropoff - but a third of the fanbase dropping off within 2 years is a direct reflection of the performance on the field...... they were winning 50-60 games a season. Winning is what put fans in the stands - whether you get there through pitching or hitting, doesn't really matter and all you have to do is look at W/L and attendance to prove that: http://www.baseball-refer...m/teams/MIL/attend.shtml

 

2007 was really the turning point imo - the payroll had nearly doubled from 2 seasons ago and they won 80+ games; it renewed peoples interest and they followed that up with the Sabathia trade and playoff appearance the next season. In 07 they ranked 8th in the NL attendance and have since ranked no lower than 6th (4th in attendance this past season - uncharted territory for nearly 3 decades for the Brewers and a hell of a feet in such a small market); where as prior to 07; they were usually near the bottom and never ranked higher than 10th in attendance in the 6 prior seasons.

[monty57]

Winning and losing play a big role in attendance, but there are always multiple reasons for attendance increases/decreases. If there were a direct correlation between winning and rising attendance, Tampa would pack the stadium, and the Braves wouldn't have had empty seats during playoff games. Milwaukee fans were pretty much done with Selig. A big reason for the increase in attendance was new ownership, and the fans' belief that the new ownership was doing everything they could to put a good product on the field.

[dlk9s]

One thing I don't like is how this club always want to keep the illusion of being in contention, hence shelling off prospects for expensive vets and not allowing rookies to play. The FO never wants to admit that they're not contending.

What illusion? They've made the playoffs 2 of the past 4 seasons and in 2007 were an Aramis Ramirez homer away from ending tied for the division title.

[dlk9s]

I repeat, the Brewers won 16 of the 33 games Marcum started.

In 2010, the Mariners only won 17 of 34 games that Felix Hernandez started. In 2009, the Royals only won 17 of 33 games that Zack Greinke started.

[narwhalattack]

One thing I don't like is how this club always want to keep the illusion of being in contention, hence shelling off prospects for expensive vets and not allowing rookies to play. The FO never wants to admit that they're not contending.

What illusion? They've made the playoffs 2 of the past 4 seasons and in 2007 were an Aramis Ramirez homer away from ending tied for the division title.

Sure, it's not an illusion, but...

What about the farm system? They've absolutely demolished the farm system to get it this position. Yes, the Brewers managed to compete very well in the process, but how long will they keep it up? Eventually they'll have to replenish the major league rotation with the farm system.

[jjfanec]

One thing I don't like is how this club always want to keep the illusion of being in contention, hence shelling off prospects for expensive vets and not allowing rookies to play. The FO never wants to admit that they're not contending.

What illusion? They've made the playoffs 2 of the past 4 seasons and in 2007 were an Aramis Ramirez homer away from ending tied for the division title.

Sure, it's not an illusion, but...

What about the farm system? They've absolutely demolished the farm system to get it this position. Yes, the Brewers managed to compete very well in the process, but how long will they keep it up? Eventually they'll have to replenish the major league rotation with the farm system.

In this demolishing of the farm system who are these guys that you are sad to see gone. LaPorta hasnt been good. Brantley looks like a 4/5 OF at best. Jeffress cant throw strikes. Inman and Garrison didnt do anything. Escobar is an all-field, no-hit SS. Gillespie has a chance. Not mention guys like Bryson, Ford, etc.

Lawrie was a big loss. Cain has a chance. Odorizzi has a chance. Those are the only 3 impact guys. I wouldnt call that demolishing the system. We have more pitching in the minors than we have had in a long time. We are missing impact bats but Lawrie was the only guy we traded who fits that list.

[endaround]

The farm system is for making the major league team better. It isn't to make sure every single position goes through the system to reach the majors. You could argue that they didn't raid the system enough or soon enough by waiting too long to move Escobar and waiting too long to make a decision on where to play Gamel.

[djoctagone]

reports are that k-rod avoided an arbitration hearing with the brewers by agreeing to a one-year deal.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://brewersbeat.mlblog...od-settle-for-8-million/

 

Deal is for $8 million. Got a steal there in my opinion. Thought he'd get more.

[StearnsFTW]

http://brewersbeat.mlblog...od-settle-for-8-million/

 

Deal is for $8 million. Got a steal there in my opinion. Thought he'd get more.

Absolutely. Still too much for him, but much more palatable at that number. I thought he'd get $12MM.

[TooLiveBrew]

Wow, people can really start to feel ok about the Brewers 'getting stuck with him' now.

Although I wonder if there's some deferred money here, the blog post specifically notes the $8M is just the base salary.

[djoctagone]

the brewers get an 8th inning guy and a 9th inning guy for less than what they've paid in the past for one 9th inning guy (beating gagne's $10 million for sure, possibly less than what the brewers paid hoffman in each of his two seasons?)

[filthyfrog]

I don't believe it's only $8M. That's even lower than the lowest predictions, so why would KRod settle for that without a fight? I bet there are some significant and reachable incentives.

[Invader3K]

I think the thing is that this makes him very tradeable to a team needing a closer. I'm sure K-Rod kept that in mind.

 

This is a good deal for the Brewers, regardless.

[fondybrewfan]

Yeah seems like a steal at this point. Maybe Krod did accept a little less to make him a more tradeable asset.

[umphrey]

It's still too much but $8M is very very reasonable. This actually makes him very tradable as well, since I'm sure he would have had a lot of suitors on the free market if he was looking for 1 year $8M.

[jjfanec]

He is more tradeable for sure but who is our 8th inning guy if we trade KRod

[PrinceEatMeat]

We wouldn't trade him unless we were out at the deadline. Just leaves the option open. Unless someone blew us away with an offer I guess. I don't see that happening though.