Brewers Offer Arby to Prince and Krod

[Baldkin]

So to summarize, Z and his scouts provided the positional talent foundation of the 2005-2011 Milwaukee Brewers and provided enough talent that Melvin was able to make numerous trades to improve MLB team, including trades for 2 CY winners. The one glaring weakness for Z's staff and the scouting dept in general has been impact pitching, the organization has suffered from a serious drought impact pitching for a very long time. On the other hand Melvin has failed on a consistent basis to plug holes in a cost effective manner, he hasn't signed our home grown young players at the appropriate time preferring to go year to year, he's failed to acquire any young impact player via trade, he hasn't addressed any organizational holes for the long-term via trade, he continually buys talent at the wrong time (when he should be looking to sell similar talent), and finally he's failed to replenish the talent well at all.

You forgot he led the team to its first two playoff appearances in nearly 30 years. I fail to see how he hasn't extended the young talent who was willing to be extended. Sheets, Braun, Weeks, and Hart were all extended. I'd say Hall's extension was done at the right time too (although, that did not work out). I'd like to know who you feel as though he didn't extend (or at least try to) at the proper time?

[FIPS133]

Monty, excellent post. You are absolutely correct on the marketing aspect of the Brewers. They have taken a moribund franchise and turned it into an admired entity that even tertiary fans spend their money on games and gear. This is all without having ever won a championship.

 

Take for example the recent Braun issue, a decade ago I believe the majority of the Brewer following public would have immediately assumed the worst in this situation and been thinking same old Brewers. The fans have been suprisingly tame on Braun, almost to the extent of deference given to the Packers in Wisconsin.

 

I don't believe the front office & marketing team lead by Rick Schlesinger and Tyler Barnes have been given enough credit in this regard. They have created an aura of institutional competence that trumps individual players which equates to loyalty to the brand of the Brewers. It similar to the Packers in how the team separated from one its greatest players (Favre) and still managed to thrive (even with a short term split in the fanbase).

 

We on this site rightly focus on the on field product, but the success of the branding with the Brewers gives me much comfort in the long term financial competitiveness of this team.

[danzig6767]

It doesnt matter to me whether Melvin had any say in Yo or not. You still did nothing to explain why you credit Jack Z for everything but dont acknowledge his almost complete lack of success drafting pitching left Melvin's hands tied.

 

 

The Brewers should have a payroll like Oakland but the fan support is so great the Brewers can afford to spend like a mid market. It's not just the Brewers obviously.... Packers are one of the most popular teams in the NFL, the Badgers enjoy great fan support, Marquette enjoys good support... it's what we do, we're loyal to our teams, maybe to a fault. The only team that doesn't enjoy that kind of support is the Bucks, but if they built a good young core and started to compete consistently I bet the support for them would come back as well. I've said it numerous times but I'll say it again, I'll take TT's organizational building philosophy over Melvin's whack-a-mole philosophy every single time. It's not about what you spend, it's about how spend it... We can win with young talent, plenty of young teams have made it to a WS, sooner or later one of those young teams is going to break through and win one. With Melvin at the helm I fear we'll always teeter on the edge of competiveness until the system is completely barren (we're pretty close now) and we have to start over from scratch, he's only been looking at the organization from one angle for too long.

A sizable reason that the Brewers have drawn the huge number of fans to Miller Park the last 3-4 years is that the team has made the playoffs twice and generally has had a quality product on the field to watch. Without the winning and two playoff berths, there wouldn't have been three million fans coming to the park which allowed for Attanasio to have a mid-market payroll. If instead the Brewers had finished 10 games below .500 the last four years as Oakland has except for one 81-81 season with no playoff berths, there wouldn't have been such a serge in attendance.

 

Just look at how attendance numbers went down at Miller Park after the first two years because the team was back to losing all the time. It was the great run by Sabathia after the trade and making the playoffs that really energized baseball fans in Milwaukee again, bringing fans out in droves like has never been seen in this city before.

 

Attendance had dropped all the way to 1,700,000 in 2003 and now it's been three straight years of 3 million plus fans, next year it should be a fourth straight year of three million plus. That didn't just happen because Milwaukee fans love baseball, it happened because the team has finally been winning and actually making the playoffs twice after going decades without a playoff berth. Melvin was a sizable factor in those two playoff berths which has energized the love again for baseball in this city.

 

Yea, Melvin isn't as good of a baseball GM as Thompson is in pro football, but that's an unfair threshold to hold Doug to given that Ted is the best GM in the NFL. Same with Friedman. No Melvin isn't on that level either, but neither are about 28 other MLB general managers. Just because Doug isn't the best GM in the league doesn't come close to meaning that he hasn't done an overall quality job. Making the playoffs twice, winning 96 games, and making baseball relevant again in a market like Milwaukee isn't easy, just look at our history and other small market teams, yet Melvin helped get us there twice, regardless if he has made some mistakes along the way.

[TheCrew]

So, getting back on topic - what happens if Prince doesn't find a contract to his liking (the latest rumor I read is he might take a 3 year deal worth $26 million) and he decides to accept arby and play on a one year deal, hoping he can get his mega contract next offseason?

 

I know it's a longshot, but thought I'd throw it out there for discussion.

[logan82]

To late to accept arby.

[TheCrew]

Ahh, didn't realize there was a time limit on the player accepting that.

 

What's everyone think about bringing Prince back on a 3 year deal if he's open to doing that? Probably nearly financially impossible for the Brewers at this point, even more so since Hart really can't be moved until they know what is up with Braun - nobody seems to be banging down his door, I thought he would have signed by now.

[brewmann04]

If the brewers can find a 3 Year dealt to work it will be an awesome move by the brewers.

[brettac1]

I don't think he'll get anything less than 6 years and $135 million. There's no way they can pay a guy $25 million a season, even if it's only three years. It's over... Quit calling her, she might not have a new boyfriend, but she's not going back to the old one.

[homer]

"small market" only applies if the owner uses it as an excuse. Attanasio has basically operated the Brewers as a medium sized market team.

[lcbj68c]

Meanwhile, there is Tampa and Oakland. The Buccaneers and Raiders both have solid fan bases, so why doesn't anyone show up to watch the Rays & A's?

 

Bwahahahaha. That was worth a good laugh. As a Tampa area resident, I can concur that Freidman is a genius. However in no shape or form do the Buccaneers have a solid fan base. I think they have been blacked out for two years straight. Nobody cares unless they are winning. The biggest bunch of bandwagon fans I have ever laid on.

 

I do think this is a result of the amount of transplant folks here and because the franchise is so young. A lot of the kids that were born and raised here are just finally old enough to enjoy and support the Rays. But the notion that all of the fans around here are "fans of other teams" and "our stadium stinks" is sooooo very true that it really helps.

 

I will say this, despite the fact that that Freidman is a genius, I think there has to be a happy medium in building a baseball team. You have to mix solid young pitching with some dynamic offensive presence. You also have to believe they've been extremely lucky with their young pitching panning out. If Melvin/Jack Z would have hit on just half of the pitching prospects that Tampa did, we wouldnt be having this conversation. I dont fault Melvin for bad luck.

[Nottso]

Marcum talking about Prince on SiriusXM radio. Nothing Earth shattering, but just enough to "keep hope alive" for those that may still be hoping for the smallest chance that Prince will be back. I'm one of those. I'll keep hoping until he actually signs elsewhere.

[Ennder]

Market size really has very little to do with anything, we are a mid payroll team and should be judged as that at this point.

 

While I think Jack Z gets way too much credit and he put us in a big hole with his lack of ability to draft pitching or worry about defense the truth is offense puts butts in the seats. So drafting the highest upside offensive players and making some high profile trades was probably the best way to rebuild the fan base considering what terrible shape the franchise was in. They didn't go about building this team the best way from a talent standpoint but it probably was close to optimum from a rebuilding the fan base standpoint. Melvin certainly has his flaws but overall he has been a better than average GM. Compare this team to the Pirates and just look at the difference in results and attendance considering both were in about the same state when Melvin took over. The Pirates squandered their talent and made bad trades and are still where the Brewers were 7 years ago at this point.

[JohnBriggs12]

Starting Pitching > Hitting

 

I don't get the hate for Marcum on here - did people forget how good he was to start the season?

 

200+ innings at a 3.5 ERA.............. you would think that would get a LOT more love around here after enduring the likes of Suppan. That first month and a half of the season would have been a lot tougher without him......... I don't buy it for a second that a "replacement pitcher" would have still allowed the Brewers to win the division.

I repeat, the Brewers won 16 of the 33 games Marcum started. Likely alternatives had they not traded for Marcum were to keep Capuano or sign a Jeff Francis who they reportedly had showed interest in. Neither Capuano or Francis were as good as Marcum, but they were both above replacement level, and it's safe to assume the Brewers would have won 12 or 13 had they started the games Marcum started. Considering they won the division by 6 games, that would have been enough.

 

Hate is a strong term. No doubt Marcum contributed to a record season. That has to be acknowledged But his utter failure in the playoffs be ignored. Those games define players. He's set to get an opportunity for redemption. I say lets see if he can before throwing long term money his way. If 2/3 of the way into next year he's performing well, then ok, explore an extension. But not now.

[RockCoCougars]

What if Marcum in the season channeled 'playoff/pitching against Brewers Suppan', and during the playoffs he channeled 'non-playoff/pitching against anyone but the Brewers Suppan'?

 

Is there a correlation? Mind blowing, I know.

[joepepsi]

I repeat, the Brewers won 16 of the 33 games Marcum started. Likely alternatives had they not traded for Marcum were to keep Capuano or sign a Jeff Francis who they reportedly had showed interest in. Neither Capuano or Francis were as good as Marcum, but they were both above replacement level, and it's safe to assume the Brewers would have won 12 or 13 had they started the games Marcum started. Considering they won the division by 6 games, that would have been enough.

Bad choice picking Jeff Francis as your example. With KC he had exactly the same run support last Marcum: 3.86 per game. Francis' ERA was 4.82 and KC lost 21 of his 31 starts.

 

Capuano enjoyed 5.07 runs per game support, yet the team still lost 17 of his 33 starts.

 

To assume either of these guys would have been as successful as Marcum for the Brewers is simply not true. I call it the Braden Looper Fallacy. Melvin spent a couple years staffing the rotation with the likes of Bush, Looper, Suppan, Narveson, using the same philosophy you propose: Average pitching with good run support is as good and cheaper than good pitching. Looper went 14-7 in 2009, but the team won 16 fewer games than in 2011. So how did that strategy work out?

 

It's always better to go with the best starting pitching you can afford.

 

If Marcum had the same run support as Looper's 2009 season he would have won 20 games. So would that have made him a better pitcher or meant he had a better season than he actually did in 2011?

[Bnowell4evr]

Starting Pitching > Hitting

 

I don't get the hate for Marcum on here - did people forget how good he was to start the season?

 

200+ innings at a 3.5 ERA.............. you would think that would get a LOT more love around here after enduring the likes of Suppan. That first month and a half of the season would have been a lot tougher without him......... I don't buy it for a second that a "replacement pitcher" would have still allowed the Brewers to win the division.

I repeat, the Brewers won 16 of the 33 games Marcum started. Likely alternatives had they not traded for Marcum were to keep Capuano or sign a Jeff Francis who they reportedly had showed interest in. Neither Capuano or Francis were as good as Marcum, but they were both above replacement level, and it's safe to assume the Brewers would have won 12 or 13 had they started the games Marcum started. Considering they won the division by 6 games, that would have been enough.

 

Hate is a strong term. No doubt Marcum contributed to a record season. That has to be acknowledged But his utter failure in the playoffs be ignored. Those games define players. He's set to get an opportunity for redemption. I say lets see if he can before throwing long term money his way. If 2/3 of the way into next year he's performing well, then ok, explore an extension. But not now.

No its not safe to assume considering Wolf would then move into Marcums spot in the rotation where he still wouldn't have had run support. Then your 4 and 5 spots in the rotation are weaker and the amount of wins required to win the division increases.

The trickle down effect from removing a pitcher who could have easily been 25-9 in the games he started with a #5 starter is a recipe for failure not a success. Just look at the Brewers before 2011.

[DHonks]

16 of 33 games is a foolish stat. We saw this argument when people said Wayne Franklin was a good pitcher because the Brewers won games he started.

 

By my count, 6 of those Brewers' losses in Marcum starts were actually quality starts. He could very easily have had 22 of 33 games with wins.

 

I would like to have basic discussions about an extension with him, but I would also make the contract contingent upon the Brewers seeing proof of Marcum's arm health. He had a bum shoulder last spring, and pitched in Sept/Oct like someone that was either tired or hurt.

[danzig6767]

Market size really has very little to do with anything, we are a mid payroll team and should be judged as that at this point.

 

While I think Jack Z gets way too much credit and he put us in a big hole with his lack of ability to draft pitching or worry about defense the truth is offense puts butts in the seats. So drafting the highest upside offensive players and making some high profile trades was probably the best way to rebuild the fan base considering what terrible shape the franchise was in.

I don't know about that. If the Brewers under Melvin had put mainly just a high scoring team on the field with no pitching that resulted in continued losing, no playoff berths, and no real contention for playoff berths, odds are attendance wouldn't have risen much.

 

It was the 2007 season when Melvin acquired Sabathia, CC went on that amazing run, and the team ended up making the playoffs that really made attendance rise to levels never seen before in franchise history. Since that 2007 season in which attendance jumped from 2.3 to 2.9 million, the Brewers have had three straight year of 3 million plus come through the Miller Park gates. Next year will likely be a 4th straight year of over three million. So yea, baseball fans do enjoy seeing home runs fly out of the park, but above all else, it's winning and at least the legit potential to make the playoffs which really brings fans in.

 

That's why foe baffling reasons when some people try to negatively analyze the Sabathia trade in retrospect, they often forget a very key benefit to the Brewers. Besides the fact that none of the players Cleveland received have amounted to much, i really believe that second half of the 2007 season truly revived the love for Brewers baseball again here in Milwaukee. Sabathia starts at Miller Park became must see events. The ballpark was electric when he pitched and as the team closed in on a playoff berth. Fans had a great time at the park and kept returning. The city as a whole was talking about Brewers baseball again, not just waiting for Packers football to start. None of that happens without the Sabathia trade.

[Baldkin]

I don't know about that. If the Brewers under Melvin had put mainly just a high scoring team on the field with no pitching that resulted in continued losing, no playoff berths, and no real contention for playoff berths, odds are attendance wouldn't have risen much.

 

It was the 2007 season when Melvin acquired Sabathia, CC went on that amazing run, and the team ended up making the playoffs that really made attendance rise to levels never seen before in franchise history. Since that 2007 season in which attendance jumped from 2.3 to 2.9 million, the Brewers have had three straight year of 3 million plus come through the Miller Park gates. Next year will likely be a 4th straight year of over three million. So yea, baseball fans do enjoy seeing home runs fly out of the park, but above all else, it's winning and at least the legit potential to make the playoffs which really brings fans in.

Sabathia was 2008. In 2007 they went 81-81 and narrowly missed out on

the division, thanks in part to our new 3B hitting a walk off winner at

Wrigley.

[clancyphile]

Market size really has very little to do with anything, we are a mid payroll team and should be judged as that at this point.

 

While I think Jack Z gets way too much credit and he put us in a big hole with his lack of ability to draft pitching or worry about defense the truth is offense puts butts in the seats. So drafting the highest upside offensive players and making some high profile trades was probably the best way to rebuild the fan base considering what terrible shape the franchise was in.

I don't know about that. If the Brewers under Melvin had put mainly just a high scoring team on the field with no pitching that resulted in continued losing, no playoff berths, and no real contention for playoff berths, odds are attendance wouldn't have risen much.

 

It was the 2007 season when Melvin acquired Sabathia, CC went on that amazing run, and the team ended up making the playoffs that really made attendance rise to levels never seen before in franchise history. Since that 2007 season in which attendance jumped from 2.3 to 2.9 million, the Brewers have had three straight year of 3 million plus come through the Miller Park gates. Next year will likely be a 4th straight year of over three million. So yea, baseball fans do enjoy seeing home runs fly out of the park, but above all else, it's winning and at least the legit potential to make the playoffs which really brings fans in.

 

That's why foe baffling reasons when some people try to negatively analyze the Sabathia trade in retrospect, they often forget a very key benefit to the Brewers. Besides the fact that none of the players Cleveland received have amounted to much, i really believe that second half of the 2007 season truly revived the love for Brewers baseball again here in Milwaukee. Sabathia starts at Miller Park became must see events. The ballpark was electric when he pitched and as the team closed in on a playoff berth. Fans had a great time at the park and kept returning. The city as a whole was talking about Brewers baseball again, not just waiting for Packers football to start. None of that happens without the Sabathia trade.

But if the team keeps losing players like Sabathia and Prince Fielder to free agency, how much longer can the success last?

[Invader3K]

But if the team keeps losing players like Sabathia and Prince Fielder to free agency, how much longer can the success last?

It can be frustrating as a fan, but who really honestly expected Milwaukee to keep either of those two long term anyway? Sabathia was just a rental (despite the offer that had no chance of being accepted) and we've been saying "Fielder will be leaving at free agency" since about 2006. I'm more than happy that Braun, Weeks, Gallardo, and Hart have all been extended. Who could have envisioned such a scenario just five years ago?

[brewtank34]

But if the team keeps losing players like Sabathia and Prince Fielder to free agency, how much longer can the success last?

It can be frustrating as a fan, but who really honestly expected Milwaukee to keep either of those two long term anyway? Sabathia was just a rental (despite the offer that had no chance of being accepted) and we've been saying "Fielder will be leaving at free agency" since about 2006. I'm more than happy that Braun, Weeks, Gallardo, and Hart have all been extended. Who could have envisioned such a scenario just five years ago?

Well said. I agree 100%

 

[monty57]

But if the team keeps losing players like Sabathia and Prince Fielder to free agency, how much longer can the success last?

 

Not just losing them, but losing them and getting little in return. Eventually the cupboard gets bare when you trade prospects for major leaguers and then lose the major leaguers after a short period (Fielder obviously doesn't fit in this category).

 

I'm more than happy that Braun, Weeks, Gallardo, and Hart have all been extended. Who could have envisioned such a scenario just five years ago?

 

I too am glad we've been able to extend our "core" players, and hope we continue to do so. However, we will have Braun, Weeks, Gallardo and Ramirez making $48.5MM in 2014, while we have a pretty weak farm system, and have recently shown no interest in allowing rookies to play. We need some pre-arby guys to step up in a big way over the next couple of years, or we may have to start trading away some of those "core" players, reversing Melvin's recent trend. We can't keep trading prospects for expensive vets and signing expensive vets to block prospects and not have a salary crunch at some point in the future.

[Baldkin]

But if the team keeps losing players like Sabathia and Prince Fielder to free agency, how much longer can the success last?

 

Not just losing them, but losing them and getting little in return. Eventually the cupboard gets bare when you trade prospects for major leaguers and then lose the major leaguers after a short period (Fielder obviously doesn't fit in this category).

 

I'm more than happy that Braun, Weeks, Gallardo, and Hart have all been extended. Who could have envisioned such a scenario just five years ago?

 

I too am glad we've been able to extend our "core" players, and hope we continue to do so. However, we will have Braun, Weeks, Gallardo and Ramirez making $48.5MM in 2014, while we have a pretty weak farm system, and have recently shown no interest in allowing rookies to play. We need some pre-arby guys to step up in a big way over the next couple of years, or we may have to start trading away some of those "core" players, reversing Melvin's recent trend. We can't keep trading prospects for expensive vets and signing expensive vets to block prospects and not have a salary crunch at some point in the future.

I keep seeing that 48.5 M number, well, for 2012, the Brewers will have 4 guys making at least 43.3 M in Hart, Greinke, Weeks and Wolf. If K-Rod gets more than 9M, then that number goes up even more. It really isn't that big of a deal.

[monty57]

But if the team keeps losing players like Sabathia and Prince Fielder to free agency, how much longer can the success last?

 

Not just losing them, but losing them and getting little in return. Eventually the cupboard gets bare when you trade prospects for major leaguers and then lose the major leaguers after a short period (Fielder obviously doesn't fit in this category).

 

I'm more than happy that Braun, Weeks, Gallardo, and Hart have all been extended. Who could have envisioned such a scenario just five years ago?

 

I too am glad we've been able to extend our "core" players, and hope we continue to do so. However, we will have Braun, Weeks, Gallardo and Ramirez making $48.5MM in 2014, while we have a pretty weak farm system, and have recently shown no interest in allowing rookies to play. We need some pre-arby guys to step up in a big way over the next couple of years, or we may have to start trading away some of those "core" players, reversing Melvin's recent trend. We can't keep trading prospects for expensive vets and signing expensive vets to block prospects and not have a salary crunch at some point in the future.

I keep seeing that 48.5 M number, well, for 2012, the Brewers will have 4 guys making at least 43.3 M in Hart, Greinke, Weeks and Wolf. If K-Rod gets more than 9M, then that number goes up even more. It really isn't that big of a deal.

They actually make $42MM. However, we also have relatively inexpensive All-Star/potential Hall of Fame talent in Ryan Braun and Yovanni Gallardo, with some important positions (Axford, Lucroy, Narveson, all of our bullpen except K-Rod, most of our bench) playing for league mimimum. Plus, Ramirez signed a back-end loaded deal to keep us from completely breaking the bank this season, and we went over budget to get a decent SS for a year. No one outside of the organization knows anything about the Brewers' finances, but respectable sources said we would have less than $10MM to spend, and we at least doubled that (K-Rod, Ramirez, Gonzalez, possibly Aoki), so I think we're really stretching the budget to try to win it all this season. I believe our opening day payroll will be around 25% higher than last year's, and we probaby wouldn't do that without realistic World Series hopes.

 

You can have 40% of your payroll spent on four players when you have other good inexpensive players. You can't have over half of your payroll spent on four players when you don't have other good inexpensive talent. Since we have depleted the farm system in recent years, and have blocked our top prospects, who will fill out the "inexpensive star player" roles in a couple of years? We will probably have some SP coming up, which is good, but do we have enough to fill out all of the open slots, or will we spend more money to extend Greinke or sign other FA's, and where is that money coming from? Gamel and Lucroy will be in arby, but neither of those project to be anywhere near the Braun/Gallardo talent level. We've pretty much destroyed any trade value of Green, who now will be stuck in AAA or on the MLB bench for the next three years. Schafer and Gindl bring some hope, and possibly we could trade Hart next offseason to bring in some young talent.

 

It's certainly not hopeless, but the contracts are signed, and Melvin is going to have to work around them or trade them. I worked it out in another thread, and dont' remember the exact details, but I guessed that if we extend Greinke or sign a comparable FA, we'd have somewhere around $75-80MM committed to Gamel at 1B, an aging Weeks at 2B, a really old, expensive Ramirez at 3B, Braun, Axford, Yo, Greinke, Narveson and Lucroy. The other 16 positions on the team need to be filled with the leftover cash. With a $90MM payroll, that's $625k a player. With a $100MM payroll, that's $1.25MM a player. All this without a strong farm to fill those positions.