K-Rod/Axford

[paul253]

It seems like there's been a lot of hesitation from the Brewers about whether or not to offer K-Rod arbitration because they may be worried he will accept. Well what if you offer him arby, and if he accepts you trade Axford. I think John Axford is the absolute sell high candidate and could bring back a legitimate pitching prospect. I know Toronto is looking for closer help and another poster brought up the idea of trading for Kyle Drabrek. So what about a Drabek for Axford deal? Then K-Rod is your closer and you could either just keep him for the year or maybe offer him a three year deal for around $30 million. Thoughts?

[dadofandrew]

Spend $9.5M more on a closer that does not project as well?

 

I do not think Doug will even consider it.

[brewmann04]

I would hope the Brewers offer Krod to get those extra draft picks and there really no way he will come back as a setup man.

[paul253]

Spend $9.5M more on a closer that does not project as well?

 

He'll be fine for another few years. We may not make the playoffs without the way he pitched this past season. But I think closers are the most overrated position in baseball. Heck I'd be fine with just keeping K-Rod for the year at whatever arbitration costs us then letting him go. But if you can get a guy like Drabek for Axford, then I think you do it. K-Rod would be a nice insurance option for 2 or 3 years if that happens until someone else can develop into that closers role.

[Oldcity]

I'd be okay with it if KROD wouldn't be so expensive. If they're going to trade Axford, they should assemble a closer-by-committee with cheaper guys.

[paul253]

It's too bad Braddock took a nose dive last season. He could have been the guy that allowed us to trade Axford.

[YoungGeezy]

I would not consider trading Ax. Way to cheap for production. We tend to forget our budget is a major issue. We can't take on a 13+ million dollar contract over a what 500-800k contract. I get the sell high but way to cheap, even though first couple Arby years he won't break the bank. KRod would not except Arby from us unless there has been zero contact for a team wanting him to close. Take the picks and run with the 40+ save close whos dirt cheap

[JohnBriggs12]

I agree with YoungGeezy. It's not only that Axford is still cheap, he's not your average closer, he's one of the best in the game and perhaps the best ever to wear a Brewer uniform.

[KCBrewerfan34]

My understanding is Krod cannot be offered arbitration under the new rules, players must be on the team for the whole season. Those rules are in place this year, correct?

[paul253]

I get the sell high but way to cheap, even though first couple Arby

years he won't break the bank. KRod would not except Arby from us unless

there has been zero contact for a team wanting him to close. Take the

picks and run with the 40+ save close whos dirt cheap

 

Yes but one bad year and his value is gone. That's the risk you take. I like draft picks as much as the next guy but if my choices are KRod and Drabek (or another prospect with #2/#3 potential) or Axford and 2 draft picks I'll take the first. Even if one of our picks turns into a Drabek type prospect, which the odds say won't happen, it will take at least 3 or 4 years for this pitcher to be ready. One year of paying KRod $13 million won't hurt too much, and depending on the prospect you get back it could allow you to save money by trading Wolf or Marcum. And yes Axford is good but KRod isn't exactly chopped liver. Plus, as far as the picks go, you could always offer KRod that one year deal next season too and see if he accepts. He may not want to work on a one year deal again, especially since he is getting old and only has one good multiyear contract left in him.

My understanding is Krod cannot be offered arbitration under the new

rules, players must be on the team for the whole season. Those rules are

in place this year, correct?

 

He can still be offered arby but for some reason the team that signs him doesn't have to give up a pick. The Brewers would simply get the pick before the team that signs him. I have no idea what thats all about but it is what is it. It doesn't really affect the Brewers at all. It may actually help them as more teams may be willing to sign him since they don't have to give up their first rounder.

[TooLiveBrew]

He can still be offered arby but for some reason the team that signs him doesn't have to give up a pick. The Brewers would simply get the pick before the team that signs him. I have no idea what thats all about but it is what is it.

 

It's one of the new CBA changes. As best I understand, it takes the punishment of giving up your (unprotected) 1st rounder for middling Type A FAs. The Elias FA rankings were done away with, & MLB is now using a different (hopefully better) FA ranking system. This is a nuance to said new system; FAs like Fielder/Pujols/Reyes/Wilson still require forfeiture of an unprotected 1st rounder.

It looks like this change was implemented both so FAs didn't have their markets diminished & so teams losing players aren't punished either. If I'm the Yankees last offseason, how much easier is it to sign Rafael Soriano without having to give up next year's first round pick? And if I'm the Rays, I still get the same kind of comp. pick.

[YoungGeezy]

It starts next off season and will help the teams like us who develop these really good players and they bail at first chance like Prince. Teams that don't develop players and trade for big name guys like Yankees will no longer get a ton of early picks. So for Greinke we would get nothing.

[Raw Biz]

My understanding is Krod cannot be offered arbitration under the new

rules, players must be on the team for the whole season. Those rules are

in place this year, correct?

 

He can still be offered arby but for some reason the team that signs him doesn't have to give up a pick. The Brewers would simply get the pick before the team that signs him. I have no idea what thats all about but it is what is it. It doesn't really affect the Brewers at all. It may actually help them as more teams may be willing to sign him since they don't have to give up their first rounder.

I think what's happening this offseason is for this offseason only. It's like a bridge between the old rules and new rules. There were a few guys like KRod where if someone signs them, the signing team doesn't lose a pick but the other team gains a pick before the signing team and a supplemental. Then next offseason, the new rules go into effect where you only gain the other team's pick if you offer arby of the average of the highest paid players from the previous season.

[markedman5]

" So for Greinke we would get nothing. "

 

Since Greinke will be with us for 2 years before he hits free agency we would still be compensated.

[RockCoCougars]

You simply cannot trade Axford unless you are absolutely blown away. I always hear that closers are overrated, but look at the deals that they've been getting. By having control over Axford for cheap, the Brewers have the luxury to spend more money on the middle relief/set up guys as we saw last year. If you were to pay a closer 8 figures, you couldn't do that. I think that we as Brewers fans have been spoiled over the years by getting lucky with closers coming out of nowhere (Jones, Wickman, Kolb, Turnbow, Torres, etc.). It seems that for the past 20 years or so, every time the incumbent closer falls on their face, someone comes out of the woodwork to pitch lights out.

[Raw Biz]

You simply cannot trade Axford unless you are absolutely blown away. I always hear that closers are overrated, but look at the deals that they've been getting. By having control over Axford for cheap, the Brewers have the luxury to spend more money on the middle relief/set up guys as we saw last year. If you were to pay a closer 8 figures, you couldn't do that. I think that we as Brewers fans have been spoiled over the years by getting lucky with closers coming out of nowhere (Jones, Wickman, Kolb, Turnbow, Torres, etc.). It seems that for the past 20 years or so, every time the incumbent closer falls on their face, someone comes out of the woodwork to pitch lights out.

Is that luck though or can that be attributed to the Brewers' system? I know the pitching coaches have changed a few times over the years (a lot of success was due to Maddux) but maybe Melvin has just done a good job of finding undervalued guys with the talent to close. I agree that we shouldn't trade Axford just to trade him but if you get offered a good deal for him, I wouldn't hesitate. I think closers are overrated and we would be able to find someone else to step up. Look at the Cardinal's this year. They had multiple guys close throughout the year and they won it all.

[paul253]

You simply cannot trade Axford unless you are absolutely blown away.

 

I agree with that. But I'd be blown away by Kyle Drabek or any pitching prospect that has #2 or maybe even #3 potential.

 

I

always hear that closers are overrated, but look at the deals that

they've been getting.

 

That's why I say they are overrated.

I think that we as Brewers fans have been spoiled over the years by

getting lucky with closers coming out of nowhere (Jones, Wickman, Kolb,

Turnbow, Torres, etc.). It seems that for the past 20 years or so,

every time the incumbent closer falls on their face, someone comes out

of the woodwork to pitch lights out.

 

I think the more it happens the less you can claim it's lucky. Basically what you do is put your best bullpen pitcher as the closer. Most above average bullpen guys could get a bunch of saves and have an era around 3 if put in the closers role. This has been the Brewers' formula for finding successful closers in the past. But the fact that so many of these guys have fallen on their face is even more reason to trade Axford while his value is so high. I'd just hate to have a Derrick Turnbow type season from Axford because after that happens you won't be able to get anything for him, let alone a decent prospect.

 

Remember my original proposal was based on KRod accepting arby. If that were the case, I'd also hope to resign Saito and I'd be ok with those two at the back of the bullpen.

[craigharmann]

Buster Olney just tweeted that the Brewers didn't offer KRod arby due to a gentlmen's agreement that he would reject. That made no sense.

 

He clarified. Arby has been offered, but no agreement in place to reject. But he would be crazy to accept it!!