Extension rumors

[fondybrewfan]

Axford has been a great closer but saying he is the premier closer in the NL is stretching it. Premier closers have done it for more than 1.5 years. Granted Ax has been very good; but he still needs to do it for a couple more before I consider him in that upper echelon of closers.

 

If the Brewers ever need to rebuild Axford will be the perfect trading chip. Certainl'y don't need a dominant arbitration eligible closer if you only win 70-75 games a year. Teams overpay for closers all the time

[paul253]

If the Brewers do anything in 2012, it will because with K-Rod and

Axford, they can play 7 inning games. The Ax man is the premier closer

in the NL. Period.

 

Having KRod and Axford means nothing unless you have starters that can get them the lead. I won't go as far as to say closers are never worth what they are paid, but more often than not they are overvalued because of the "save" statistic. They are paid ridiculous salaries because they are good one inning pitchers. I'll take a good starter over a good closer any day of the week. And like TheCrew said, if you get offered a good enough pitching prospect for Axford I'd trade him in a heartbeat. Now is probably not the time to trade him (I'd wait til next offseason) but if the right offer comes along you take it. I'm not ready to rely on Bradley Jungmann and Thornburg quite yet. I'd go for as many high ceiling starters as I can get because starting pitching is a lot harder to find than relievers.

[TheCrew07]

Closers and relievers are never worth what they sign for?

I had forgotten about this thread so I apologize for not responding.

 

No, the big name players are never worth what they sign for. There is simply no way 50-60 innings per year is valuable enough to justify an 8 digit salary, much less a high 7 digit salary. It doesn't matter if it's only a 1 year contract like the case with Gagne, I'm done with wasting that kind of money on the bullpen. I played the 1 year justification game with the Gagne situation and I was wrong for doing it, and I certainly wouldn't support that kind of move now, hence my criticism of K-Rod accepting arbitration. Also, no I'm not saying the players in the example I used are equal talent, I'm saying it's impossible to convince me that relievers carry enough value to be worth that kind of money.

 

Bad contracts are handed out to all kinds of free agents every season, being productive vs some other over valued free agent doesn't justify any contract. Nor would I support Melvin spending on player X because he's better than player Y who makes $Z per year. I have a simple thought about the payroll, the most valuable players should be making the most money and someone who will only contribute the bare minimum number of innings where an arbitrary rule applies doesn't fit that criteria for me personally. I've posted often that in general I've felt FA hitters are better value than FA pitchers, but the Ramirez contract is pretty troubling. Backloaded for 16 mil we aren't going to be able to move that contract if the need arrises, plus the deferred money and option, yuck.

 

Getting back to the original point, in no way am I in favor of extending pitchers at a market rate into their mid 30s. Axford will be 30 or 31 when he's done with arbitration, no reason to sign him to anything, let him walk for compensation or trade him for better value.

 

One last time I believe that starting pitching > position players > relievers > closers because closers are so over valued for what they actually do. If I can get a legit stud pitching or position prospect for a closer I make that deal 19 out of 20 times. Maybe 20 out of 20 depending on who the prospect was each time, but the young man would have to possess some serious warts for me to worried about not getting equal value.

[Invader3K]

@BrewerNation has a blog article up about Greinke being interested in an extension with the Brewers. Sounds like it's only talk at this point, but intriguing none the less.

 

This player wants to be compensated well but wants to leave the Brewers with room to maneuver in their budget. This, of course, would be in an effort to help the Brewers stay competitive.

 

I don’t know what point, if anywhere, the talks have progressed to further than just the initial notification of the desire to indeed talk.

 

Many people guessed the player’s name correctly but I will say to you now that it is referring to Zack Greinke.

 

Greinke is said to really like it in Milwaukee and would like to stay here for a period of time but, again, wants to get paid too.

[madtowndrunkard]

Axford the premier closer in the NL? I'm guessing Craig Kimbrel might disagree with you....along with anyone who knows who Craig Kimbrel is.

 

 

 

As for extensions.... this is a perfect time to extend Marcum. His career numbers say his late season collapse was a fluke. Don't forget he was easily our best pitcher in the 1st half of 2011. I'd be fine giving marcum a 3-5 year deal. His success has never been based on power so I think he'll be a solid SP for a long time.

 

Greinke IMO is a bigger risk. He's going to get $60-70 million in his next deal. I'd love to see us extend him, but he's not a safe bet IMO.

 

Point is, the Brewers should sign extensions with both pitchers. We've got little in our minor league system. I believe Wolf is also in a contract year.? Not to mention the talent we gave up for these 2 SP's. Lawrie is going to be superstar....and if we let Marcum walk - that makes that trade maybe the worst in brewers history.

[narwhalattack]

I'm a little wary about extending Marcum. Because he is an extreme junkballer, he needs to rely on changing speeds and pinpoint location to be successful. I'm not entirely sure how long he'll be able to keep that up. If he becomes a little off in terms of location and difference in speed, then he's gonna get hit HARD. Plus, his mechanics isn't the cleanest one out there so he's also an injury risk.

 

As for Greinke, his stuff can give him room to make mistake and his mechanics are clean.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Extend Greinke at a reasonable deal, maybe look at keeping Marcum for an extra 2 years or so, otherwise let him walk.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm all for doing an extension with Greinke right now. As for Marcum, I'd wait until I get a chance to see how he's pitching once the season starts.

[Mass Haas]

Axford the premier closer in the NL? I'm guessing Craig Kimbrel might disagree with you....along with anyone who knows who Craig Kimbrel is.

 

Huh?

 

Ax-Man was 46 of 48 in save opportunities. Kimbrel was 46 of 54, including three blown saves in September, final game among them.

 

I know who Craig Kimbrel is, and John Axford and his 2011 WHIP of 1.14 (yes, a tad higher than Craig's 1.04) is currently the premier closer in the NL, and that includes Mr. $50 million Papelbon.

 

It's amazing how everyone brushes eight blown saves by Kimbrel under the rug as if none of them happened. Now, would more GM's trade for Kimbrel than Axford, perhaps, but you don't see a lot of 5'10" RH closers with sustainable careers.

Yeah, probably deserves its own thread, by the way...

 

 

[RockCoCougars]

All that I know is that at the end of the season, there is no one is the league that I would have preferred over Axford as closer. I wouldn't throw him an extension just yet, but I would certainly give him a nice 2012 contract for a guy with less than two years of service time. He deserves a little extra if you ask me, even though the Brewers don't have to do it.

[paul253]

I think I'd go all in for Greinke and then let Marcum walk. I'd offer him that deal to get extra draft picks though because I don't think he'd sign for one year. The Brewers are entering dangerous territory as far as relying too heavily on expensive free agents and not enough on cheap home grown guys. They can't survive like this. It's getting to the point where they have to have guys like Gamel and Peralta succeed because they can't afford to replace them with a free agent. They also need to quit trading away quality prospects.

 

In an absolute perfect world, by 2013 I would like to see Greinke extended, Marcum leaving with Milwaukee getting picks for him, Wolf leaving and the two of them replaced in the rotation by Peralta and either Rogers, Fiers, or Scarpetta, Gamel at first and Schafer in center. Thornburg would be in AAA, Jungmann and Bradley would be in AA and Lopez would be in A ball.

[RightFieldCoder]

FWIW, we didn't give extra to Prince after becoming the youngest player to hit 50 HRs. I don't think we'll give extra to Ax for having a nice 73 IP unless it is in a team friendly contract for arbitration years.

[MNBrew]

I think I'd go all in for Greinke and then let Marcum walk. I'd offer him that deal to get extra draft picks though because I don't think he'd sign for one year.

 

...The Brewers are entering dangerous territory as far as relying too heavily on expensive free agents and not enough on cheap home grown guys. They can't survive like this....

Breaking this portion of your post in two parts...

 

1. I'd also go all in for Greinke. However, if his 2012 shows his mid-Sept. onward was an aberration, I'd strongly consider extending Marcum, too. Then, assuming Wolf wouldn't be here in 2013 and if Narveson continues to improve & some of our young guys continue developing & step up as we're hoping, then Marcum is still a very tradeable asset that would net us something good in return that letting him walk as a FA wouldn't. . . . On the other hand, if Wolf continues to pitch as he has as a Brewers except for May & June 2010, and/or if Marcum falters, then, if we're out of contention, you trade Marcum while you can and get something in return, or you let him walk. Then you'd have 3 well-proven starters plus Narveson & young guys. . . . . No matter how you slice it, somehow the Brewers have to retain two ace-types and have a dominant Top 3 starters to have any real chance of playoff & World Series contention.

 

2. I'm not sure I agree with your second point. That's largely why they didn't trade any prospects in deals this winter. I didn't think so beforehand but I do agree in hindsight that they needed another proven middle-of-the-order bat to protect Braun, and that leaving both corner IF positions to rookies could've been just too chancy. As it stands, they've got a nice set of 6 IFs (Gamel-Weeks-Gonzalez-Ramirez, plus Green & Izturis off the bench). . . . I do think it's worth noting that of all the 14 young players surrendered in various trades (Linebrink: Inman, Thatcher, & Garrison; Sabathia: LaPorta, Brantley, Bryson, & Jackson; Marcum: Lawrie; & Greinke: Escobar, Cain, Jeffress, & Odorizzi; K-Rod: Rosario & Herrera), judging on what they've done since they've been traded, only Thatcher (very serviceable LOOGY), Lawrie, & Escobar (defensively) have amounted to anything so far, and Odorizzi is the only one still showing star-type promise among the others. Cain & Jeffress could still pan out to tip the scales a bit more away from the Brewers, but at this point one could reasonably assert that only 1 of every 3 prospects they've traded has amounted to a meaningful loss. . . . They're substantive losses nonetheless, but A) the alleged "gutting" of the farm system hasn't been nearly to the extreme that's been suggested, and B) what the Brewers got out of Sabathia in '08 and Marcum, Greinke, & K-Rod thus far has been VERY worth what they gave up in Thatcher, Lawrie, & (defensively) Escobar, with the potential of Odorizzi still being only just that for now. . . . And the key moving forward continues to be finding that right balance of big-buck contracts for stud players & emerging young talent -- just as it's been all along, only now we actually have star players to go with those large contracts (as opposed to the Suppans & Halls & Hammondses of the past).

 

 

(The multiple edits were for spelling.)

[BritInWI]

judging on what they've done since they've been traded, only Thatcher (very serviceable LOOGY), Lawrie, & Escobar (defensively) have amounted to anything so far, and Odorizzi is the only one still showing start-type promise among the others. Cain & Jeffress could still pan out to tip the scales a bit more away from the Brewers

To be fair, Lorenzo Cain deserves to be in that discussion too (6 for 22 with KC and .312/.380/.497 in AAA). Odorizzi struggled somewhat at AA last year but I agree that he still shows promise. Last I heard, Cain is pencilled in as the starter in CF for 2011 and, honestly, if they didn't want him to start I would be happy to see the Brewers reacquire him and give him a chance to play regularly again.

[BritInWI]

(as opposed to the Suppans & Halls & Hammondses of the past).

Nasty Hammondses stealing the precioussss (salary)...

 

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSvOuFXdi6nHF0MvvJfDruJIt4R5lfGy3eJpmZHt8fqI5_y3pCb5PMXHnCu

[paul253]

I'm not sure I agree with your second point. That's largely why they didn't trade any prospects in deals this winter.

 

I actually think one of the reasons they didn't trade any prospects this offseason is because short of Peralta and maybe Thornburg, we don't have a whole lot of prospects worth anything. We're talking about guys like Green, Gamel, and Schafer, all of whom are very old for your typical "prospect". We talk a lot about Gindl, but really in your top 10 system Gindl is probably no better than an organization's 10-15 rated prospect. Same thing with Gennett. We just don't have anyone to trade, which I think is more of the reason.

 

Regarding the Sabathia, Greinke and Marcum trades. Just to be clear, I wasn't knocking the trades. And you're right, so far they all seem to look very good. It hurt losing Lawrie but without Marcum we probably aren't a playoff team. What I was getting that is that even though the system is weak, we do have younger, cheaper guys that can contribute. But in almost every case (so far at least) Melvin has elected to go with the more expensive veteran. We had Green for third base but he signed Ramirez. We have Peralta who could easily be in the rotation, but we're keeping Wolf and Marcum. Rather than trading someone like Hart, Marcum, or Wolf for a young shortstop we signed one to a multimillion dollar deal. I have a feeling we are only going with Gamel at first not because Melvin wants to, but because he doesn't have any more money to find a replacement.

 

In order for the Brewers to succeed, they need to supplement your veterans with cheaper home grown guys. Since Ryan Braun came up in 2007, only Jonathan Lucroy fits the mold of young, cheap every day player. There was Escobar, but he was traded away for the expensive vet (though I do agree with the deal).

 

The Brewers have a good team, but they also have some valuable trading chips. It wouldn't be the worst idea to explore the idea of trading one of your expensive trading chips that you have a replacement for a young guy with some upside that can insert into your lineup or rotation for the next 4 years before you have to worry about paying him any sort of substantial amount of money. I think Marcum and Hart fit the bill best. You have Peralta and Gindl and could likely get a very nice player in return. And it would save you millions of dollars.

[RockCoCougars]

FWIW, we didn't give extra to Prince after becoming the youngest player to hit 50 HRs. I don't think we'll give extra to Ax for having a nice 73 IP unless it is in a team friendly contract for arbitration years.

This is where Brewers management loses me a bit. I don't know why they need to go so hard line here, it seems penny wise pound foolish to me. I'm not talking about huge money, I'm talking maybe a few hundred grand extra instead of just renewing his contract. I thought that it was a little bush league that they renewed both Prince and Yo after great years. Maybe they were trying to goad them into an extension (if that's the case they were 50/50). They also run the risk of alienating the player though, as I remember Prince was upset when he was renewed (and also facing financial troubles). I wouldn't even want to give Axford an extension at this point, but would it really kill them to give him $700K instead of $400K? Yes, I know, it's not my money- but how much money did they pay that stiff David Riske to go away last year?

[Invader3K]

They tried to offer Prince Fielder a contract at the time that would have bought out just his first year of free agency (if I recall correctly). Prince and Boras balked, so the Brewers re-signed Prince on their scale. Not really something you can fault Melvin for, in my opinion.

[TheCrew07]

They didn't offer Prince a contract until 2008 or 2009, they didn't offer him one pre arbitration. They did the same thing with Hart.

 

Looking at it from the Player's perspective, why not ride out 2 more years of arbitration and take the payday? Where's the incentive to take a deal unless you're really struggling financially? However if you are 4 or 5 years away from your payday then maybe the security of a long-term deal that buys out some FA years but guarantees financial stability in the case of severe injury is enticing. In that kind of contract the team is really accepting the majority of the risk for discount on the total dollar amount.

 

We'll never know if the players would have accepted because the contracts weren't offered. Personally I was in the crowd that wanted the Brewers to offer a contract to Prince when he was in tax trouble, maybe he would have been insulted and took it like the team was trying to pile on. However, in dealing with my customers, people genuinely appreciate it if you can help them out when times are tough, it should be a win/win for both sides.

[Invader3K]

I clearly remember talk of them trying to work out a deal before the '08 season. Prince then had some quote along the lines of "My time will come," or something. I'm mobile right now so its hard to search for a link, but perhaps another poster can provide one.

Edit: This thread has reference to a report from Tom Haudricourt that the Brewers offered him a contract in the $60 million range (which jives with what I remember). Unfortunately, the link to the report no longer works. There is another thread from Spring Training '08 that mentions comments from Jim Powell along the same lines. So I would say it's safe to say that yes, the Brewers did approach Prince about a long term deal after his second year. Prince and Boras had no interest in a long term deal, though.

[monty57]

The Brewers are entering dangerous territory as far as relying too heavily on expensive free agents and not enough on cheap home grown guys. They can't survive like this

 

As it stands right now, in 2014 the Brewers will have $48.5MM tied up in four players (Braun, Weeks, Yo, Ramirez). There is a good chance that Ramirez will be a better player this year than Green would have been, so that move helps us win today. However, in 2014 he will make $16MM and will be virtually untradeable. Going with Green would have been riskier in the short-term, but would have given us a lot more flexibility for the future.

 

I would like to see Greinke and Marcum extended, as I said when this thread opened in November. However, I share Paul253's worry as quoted above. Let's be cheap and say we get Greinke for $16MM and Marcum for $11.5MM per year. In 2014, that would put us at $76MM for six players, plus guys like Gamel, Lucroy and Axford in arbitration. In order for us to be competitve with $76MM tied up in six players (or close to $90MM tied up in nine players) would be if we had a lot of pre-arby players at every other position, or if the TV deal is better than any of us believe it to be.

 

With that in mind, the Ramirez deal seems to have been a bit of desparation on Melvin's part to try to take the division again while the starting rotation is intact, and has to mean that the possibility of extending both Greinke and Marcum has lessened. It probably also means that we'll have a quick trigger finger as far as selling at deadline if the Reds and/or Cardinals are ahead of us in the standings. Otherwise, we'll be in a big salary glut for the next few seasons unless we trade away Braun, Weeks and/or Yo (assuming Ramirez's back-end loaded contract will be untradeable). If I didn't have a lot of faith in Attanasio's financial acumen, I'd be pretty worried about the mid-term future of the Brewers.

[Invader3K]

I don't think the Brewers necessarily need or should extend BOTH of Marcum and Greinke. I would probably prefer seeing Greinke extended, as he is younger and has better stuff overall than Marcum. Hopefully by next season, one of the younger guys like Peralta or Fiers will be an established option for the rotation.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I think we can realistically forget about extending Marcum and Greinke. I would definitely pick Greinke to re-up with.

[RightFieldCoder]

It wasn't just that Prince rejected our offer and we gave him our regular near (MLB) minimum. It was also that his good friend Weeks had gotten a MLB contract right away and was making over $1M a year since 03. That was what prompted him to go out and get an agent who promised to get him the most money.

I found the article referenced in the dead link.

When looking up the salary info, I was happy to see that BF.net is the sponsor of Week's BaseballReference page. I didn't know BF.net sponsored any.

[TheCrew07]

My mistake, I believed the contract offer was made in his first year of arbitration but my google skills were lacking.