Extension rumors

[JohnBriggs12]

Like it. You win with great pitching (or at least you should).

Agreed. Unfortunately, neither Greinke or Marcum are great.

 

As they're getting lit up next year we can all remind ourselves they are getting money that could have gone to Prince.

Yeah because when we had Prince but no Greinke or Marcum we were making the NLCS really consistently. Pitching wins in this league.

 

There's nothing stopping them from getting pitching if they don't extend Greinke and Marcum. A year ago they had neither. The issue is whether it's smart to tie up two guys for multiple years at a high salary. If these guys aren't good, you can cripple the franchise. Greinke allowed a slugging percentage higher than Narveson last year. You really want to commit $75 million over 5 years for this guy? I don't and that's likely the minimum it would take. Marcum had one of the worst postseasons in recent memory. Why on earth would you consider extending him now?

 

By the way, it wasn't starting pitching that won for them last year. The bullpen was the best in the league for half the season. The offense had two MVP candidates who both were much better than they were in 2010. The staters were at best 5th or 6th in the NL. I'm all for extending Axford. He's more of a reason they won last year than either Greinke or Marcum.

[JohnBriggs12]

Like it. You win with great pitching (or at least you should).

Agreed. Unfortunately, neither Greinke or Marcum are great.

 

As they're getting lit up next year we can all remind ourselves they are getting money that could have gone to Prince.

Or we could sign Prince and two years from now when both Greinke and Marcum leave because we didn't have the money to extend either we all can remind ourselves how much it sucks having Prince and no pitching. The jump from 77 to 96 wins certainly wasn't due to our massive increase in offensive production.

What makes you think Melvin can't come up with a different pair of pitchers in the same manner? Why are we fixated on these two? Didn't they just draft two starters high too?

 

There was more than just an improved rotation last year too. In 2010, the bullpen was awful for two months. How come everyone forgets that? Fielder and Braun had off years in 2010 too and both were MVP

candidates in 2011.

 

Long term, big money contracts to pitchers are extremely risky. I don't care what their names are and how many Cy Youngs they have. Greinke had one great year in the majors. It was far and away superior to any other year he's had. That was in 2009. You going to pay him off that year?

 

I don't disagree with the premise that pitching wins. But there are two ways to win with pitching. The way Arizona did with young guys who are talented and cheap or the way Philly did by anteing up for the best of the best. Right now, the Brewers have neither. Their guys are pretty good but not the best, and the young guys aren't quite ready. The Brewers because of their market are better off in my opinion trying to duplicate what the D-Backs did. With their recent drafts, they are in better position to bring along the young studs rather than tie their hands hoping against hope that the highly paid guys live up to their contracts. Because if they don't they will be in a huge bind.

[Bnowell4evr]

Agreed. Unfortunately, neither Greinke or Marcum are great.

 

As they're getting lit up next year we can all remind ourselves they are getting money that could have gone to Prince.

Yeah because when we had Prince but no Greinke or Marcum we were making the NLCS really consistently. Pitching wins in this league.

 

There's nothing stopping them from getting pitching if they don't extend Greinke and Marcum. A year ago they had neither. The issue is whether it's smart to tie up two guys for multiple years at a high salary. If these guys aren't good, you can cripple the franchise. Greinke allowed a slugging percentage higher than Narveson last year. You really want to commit $75 million over 5 years for this guy? I don't and that's likely the minimum it would take. Marcum had one of the worst postseasons in recent memory. Why on earth would you consider extending him now?

 

By the way, it wasn't starting pitching that won for them last year. The bullpen was the best in the league for half the season. The offense had two MVP candidates who both were much better than they were in 2010. The staters were at best 5th or 6th in the NL. I'm all for extending Axford. He's more of a reason they won last year than either Greinke or Marcum.

I love how you always mention Yuni's 2nd half where he hit .270 and had a .700 OPS but never mention how Greinke absolutely dominated in the 2nd half.

9-3 2.59 ERA 97.1 IP 102 Ks 1.161 WHIP is about as ACE like as you can get.

[YoungGeezy]

Briggs has never looked at Greinke's stats outside of ERA. If he'd look at all of them and more importantly some advanced stats, he'd notice that Greinke was by far our best pitcher. He lead the team in almost every possible catagory. So if he is worth nothing and not important to the team, I guess Yo is really not important.

 

Also it is a terrible decision to make the Greinke Marcum trades a trend. Developing pro prospects is kind of important. We can't do that if we need to clean our whole house every 1 to 2 years by trading for more pitchers. Frontline guys are not cheap. Keeping Yo and Greinke give us 2 Aces and will gives us 2 out of 5 games that we can be confident that we have a chance to win. You don't get that with Wolf, Narvy, Peralta, Fiers, etc

[JohnBriggs12]

Yeah because when we had Prince but no Greinke or Marcum we were making the NLCS really consistently. Pitching wins in this league.

 

There's nothing stopping them from getting pitching if they don't extend Greinke and Marcum. A year ago they had neither. The issue is whether it's smart to tie up two guys for multiple years at a high salary. If these guys aren't good, you can cripple the franchise. Greinke allowed a slugging percentage higher than Narveson last year. You really want to commit $75 million over 5 years for this guy? I don't and that's likely the minimum it would take. Marcum had one of the worst postseasons in recent memory. Why on earth would you consider extending him now?

 

By the way, it wasn't starting pitching that won for them last year. The bullpen was the best in the league for half the season. The offense had two MVP candidates who both were much better than they were in 2010. The staters were at best 5th or 6th in the NL. I'm all for extending Axford. He's more of a reason they won last year than either Greinke or Marcum.

I love how you always mention Yuni's 2nd half where he hit .270 and had a .700 OPS but never mention how Greinke absolutely dominated in the 2nd half.

9-3 2.59 ERA 97.1 IP 102 Ks 1.161 WHIP is about as ACE like as you can get.

 

Where was this "ACE" in the postseason? 23 hits, 15 runs, 12 ER, 1.620 WHIP in 23 IP. Greinke can thank Marcum for us ignoring his failures. Of those 9 second half wins, 6 of them came against the woeful Astros, Pirates, and Cubs and you won't find teams like that to play in October.

 

I'd extend Greinke in a heartbeat for what he's worth. I never said he was a bad pitcher. But he's not worth $85-90 million and that's what he's going to want based on his 2009 Cy Young.. I think he's worth about what Ryan Dempster got from the Cubs prior to 2009. That was $52 million over 4 years. To me Greinke is on Dempster's level and that type of deal is livable for a team like the Brewers. Dempster was coming off an ace-quality year in 08, but he's never really been on that level.

 

Do I have to invoke names like John Lackey, A J Burnett, Carlos Zambrano, Carl Pavano, to get my point across? All those guys had stretches of ACE quality pitching before signing big deals. They weren't ACES though and within 2 years, not able to be moved.

 

My comment on Betancourt was that he was a starting quality major league SS. I wouldn't over pay him either. But he's not going to affect the future ability of this team to improve itself. Signing Greinke to a huge deal could. These aren't the Yankees, Red Sox or even the Cubs or Phillies. They need to build pitching staffs from their system ala Arizona, Tampa Bay and even SF. Sure if they are short on young arms, finding guys like Greinke and Marcum for the short term is a fine idea, but that's where it should end.

[Bnowell4evr]

There's nothing stopping them from getting pitching if they don't extend Greinke and Marcum. A year ago they had neither. The issue is whether it's smart to tie up two guys for multiple years at a high salary. If these guys aren't good, you can cripple the franchise. Greinke allowed a slugging percentage higher than Narveson last year. You really want to commit $75 million over 5 years for this guy? I don't and that's likely the minimum it would take. Marcum had one of the worst postseasons in recent memory. Why on earth would you consider extending him now?

 

By the way, it wasn't starting pitching that won for them last year. The bullpen was the best in the league for half the season. The offense had two MVP candidates who both were much better than they were in 2010. The staters were at best 5th or 6th in the NL. I'm all for extending Axford. He's more of a reason they won last year than either Greinke or Marcum.

I love how you always mention Yuni's 2nd half where he hit .270 and had a .700 OPS but never mention how Greinke absolutely dominated in the 2nd half.

9-3 2.59 ERA 97.1 IP 102 Ks 1.161 WHIP is about as ACE like as you can get.

 

Where was this "ACE" in the postseason? 23 hits, 15 runs, 12 ER, 1.620 WHIP in 23 IP. Greinke can thank Marcum for us ignoring his failures. Of those 9 second half wins, 6 of them came against the woeful Astros, Pirates, and Cubs and you won't find teams like that to play in October.

 

I'd extend Greinke in a heartbeat for what he's worth. I never said he was a bad pitcher. But he's not worth $85-90 million and that's what he's going to want based on his 2009 Cy Young.. I think he's worth about what Ryan Dempster got from the Cubs prior to 2009. That was $52 million over 4 years. To me Greinke is on Dempster's level and that type of deal is livable for a team like the Brewers. Dempster was coming off an ace-quality year in 08, but he's never really been on that level.

 

Do I have to invoke names like John Lackey, A J Burnett, Carlos Zambrano, Carl Pavano, to get my point across? All those guys had stretches of ACE quality pitching before signing big deals. They weren't ACES though and within 2 years, not able to be moved.

 

My comment on Betancourt was that he was a starting quality major league SS. I wouldn't over pay him either. But he's not going to affect the future ability of this team to improve itself. Signing Greinke to a huge deal could. These aren't the Yankees, Red Sox or even the Cubs or Phillies. They need to build pitching staffs from their system ala Arizona, Tampa Bay and even SF. Sure if they are short on young arms, finding guys like Greinke and Marcum for the short term is a fine idea, but that's where it should end.

Theres something called a small sample size. Look at what Justin Verlander did in the playoffs and get back to me.

And yes I know were not a big market club but I look at how a team like the Braves built their rotation and I see us following a similar path with Greinke and Gallardo being the veterans at the top with a bunch of home grown guys who project as a #3 or higher filling out the rest of the rotation.

[monty57]

There is no need to lock up a reliever unless it is for WELL below market value.

 

I pretty much agree. The Brewers have Axford under team control for his prime years. The benefits of signing him to a long term deal are cost certainty and getting an extra couple of years of service. Since he'll be 29 on April 1, and plays a position known for rapid decline, I don't know that locking up some years in his mid-30's is very important.

 

Therefore, I see is as weighing the value of cost certainty + some potential savings vs the negative of the risk added to the team in locking themselves into a guaranteed long-term contract. In this case, I think the risks probably outweigh the rewards for the Brewers.

 

I really like that they're looking into extending both Greinke and Marcum. Both are players who seem to fit well in Milwaukee - Marcum is from the Midwest and Greinke may be better suited to a small market media and fanbase. Greinke is a top-of-the-rotation guy, and Marcum could come cheaper due to his fall off at the end of the season. If we could somehow extend both of these guys, we could have a solid core team (offense and pitching) for years, and let our prospects work there way into the rotation when they're ready and should give us a position of strength to trade from in the coming years.

[PilprinBuddha]

Greinke will be better than last season...he really had no spring training and missed the first month or so.

 

I'd like to see a 4 - 60 or 5-75 type of deal... Marcum....tougher due to previous health issues.....3-27 with 4th year option at 10 mil?

 

 

Probably less than market value...but fair?

[valpocrewsader]

There hasn't been anyone to sell high on recently so what are you exactly trying to say here?

Last off-season would have been a great time to trade McGehee ... unexpected big year and Green and Gamel waiting in the wings. Hardy's trade value was much higher earlier in his career than when we ultimately traded him, and we knew we had other SS options. Hall was traded at a super low point, definitely missed an opportunity to sell high on him, too.

 

 

[markedman5]

Last off season Green was an unknown coming off an injury and the organization had moved Gamel from 3rd to first because he couldn't play 3rd and they knew they would need a first baseman when Fielder left.

 

Mcgehee was coming off a big year and was cheap......maybe we should have sold high on Braun after his rookie year?

 

Hindsight is always 20/20.

 

There hasn't been anyone to sell high on recently so what are you exactly trying to say here?

Last off-season would have been a great time to trade McGehee ... unexpected big year and Green and Gamel waiting in the wings. Hardy's trade value was much higher earlier in his career than when we ultimately traded him, and we knew we had other SS options. Hall was traded at a super low point, definitely missed an opportunity to sell high on him, too.

 

[RockCoCougars]

I think that the team should be generous in negotiating a 2012 contract with Ax. There is no reason not to throw him an extra few hundred thousand. At the same time, I'm not sure about signing him to a long term deal. For some reason, Brewer closers have always tended to implode (do a 'Turnbow') shortly thereafter.

[sheetskout]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that if we don't sign a couple of larger-profile free-agents that we should definitely act quickly regarding Greinke. If he's not willing to extend we need to see what we can get for him.

 

I am weirded out by Greinke's flakiness and for me puts it well under 50% that he considers extending. Greinke is prime trade-bait. And if he isn't going to stay in Milwaukee we need to bring at least one blue-chip prospect back in return. I am not going to be satisfied with compensation picks in this situation. Everyone needs a frontline anchor with ceiling left.

[Mr Southpaw]

One or the other.....

 

ZG 2013-14 2 years $26,000,000 with a team and player option in 2015 for an additional 2 years at $15,000,000 per year. A total of 4 years $56,000,000.

 

SM 2013-14 2 years $18,000,000 with a team option in 2015 for an additional year at $11,000,000.

 

This gives us at least two quality starters (YoGa and one of the above) through 2015. At that point our minor league system should start producing quality arms. If neither likes the numbers, move on and sign a free agent pitcher like we did with Randy Wolf (with a little more quality).

[endaround]

You're going to offer Greinke a pay cut? And under pay Marcum by $5m a year and only give him 2 years? Good luck with that.

[sveumrules]

If Greinke isn't interested in an extension and pitching for a huge FA contract is the carrot he needs to put up another 2009 type season I'll gladly take the production.

[Mr Southpaw]

2 year $27,000,000 for ZG Sorry, I was off by $1,000,000. Marcum got paid $3.95 this year. How would he get getting paid less? I am guessing about $7.5 in arbitration this year.

[RockCoCougars]

I think that people are severely underrating Greinke's value on the open market. If a stiff like John Lackey can get $80 some million, I don't think that it's a stretch that Greinke may command nearly $100 million. Would that be worth it to the Brewers? I'm not sure. I don't put much stock in the whole 'he couldn't handle New York' stuff either. In the end, money talks- how many guys have turned away Yankee money? I'm just hoping that the team doesn't let Greinke walk and then focus on the consolation prize by overpaying Marcum to save face. I really don't see Marcum aging well. If and when he loses a few MPH of his fastball, it's going to be very hard for him to adjust his other pitches to keep guys off balance like he has over his career. I read something that during his September/October drubbing, that the off speed stuff was closer to the fastball (in MPH) than the first part of the season.

[Mr Southpaw]

Zach like Milwaukee and Milwaukee likes Zach. I think he would settle for less because Milwaukee treats it's players fairly nice unlike other markets where it is "what have you done for me lately". I don't think getting more than everybody else is his motive. I don't think he wants to "handle" New York or Boston. I think he just wants to be with a winning organization that treats him right.

[reillymcshane]

Zach like Milwaukee and Milwaukee likes Zach. I think he would settle for less because Milwaukee treats it's players fairly nice unlike other markets where it is "what have you done for me lately". I don't think getting more than everybody else is his motive. I don't think he wants to "handle" New York or Boston. I think he just wants to be with a winning organization that treats him right.

I think you're right in that winning is important to Greinke. That's why I wouldn't be surprised to see him wait until later next year to talk contract. If the team looks like it's going to be crap in 2013-14, he might prefer to move on.

 

I hope I'm wrong, and he's willing to sign an extension this off season. But he might just wait and see how he thinks 2013 and beyond is looking before re upping.

[NievesNoNO]

I think that people are severely underrating Greinke's value on the open market. If a stiff like John Lackey can get $80 some million, I don't think that it's a stretch that Greinke may command nearly $100 million. Would that be worth it to the Brewers? I'm not sure. I don't put much stock in the whole 'he couldn't handle New York' stuff either. In the end, money talks- how many guys have turned away Yankee money? I'm just hoping that the team doesn't let Greinke walk and then focus on the consolation prize by overpaying Marcum to save face. I really don't see Marcum aging well. If and when he loses a few MPH of his fastball, it's going to be very hard for him to adjust his other pitches to keep guys off balance like he has over his career. I read something that during his September/October drubbing, that the off speed stuff was closer to the fastball (in MPH) than the first part of the season.

I agree RoCo, Greinke would easily get 100 mil in free agency this season. If they want to negotiate an extension it'll take CJ Wilson type money to keep him here. He may like it here, but he's not going to accept a low ball offer to do it. No, he's not an ace in the mold of CC or Lee but he's quite good and good doesn't come cheap.

 

I trust Marcum more than most and it wouldn't surprise me to see him outperform Greinke over the next 3-4 years. I'd like one or the other. I think Marcum will come closer to what his actual worth is while Greinke obviously has the potential for the completely dominating year and might have fewer question marks, although that's debatable as well.

 

Even if you believe they should trade one or both I don't see the urgency to do it during the off-season. I think you can leverage a teams desperation better at the trade deadline if the Brewers are out of contention. I'd much rather keep the rotation in tact again this season and give guys like Fiers and Peralta time to refine their craft and kind of ease them into the rotation and see IF they are the real deal before we decide they're the answer to filling out the rotation in the near future. To me, if you're really are looking to move somebody Randy Wolf is the guy.

[RockCoCougars]

Even if you believe they should trade one or both I don't see the urgency to do it during the off-season. I think you can leverage a teams desperation better at the trade deadline if the Brewers are out of contention.

 

Agree 100%. The only way that I would move any substantive piece at this point is either for proven talent in return, or for salary relief if Fielder is signed.

[monty57]

Even if you believe they should trade one or both I don't see the urgency to do it during the off-season.

 

I'm not advocating trading one of them, but the "urgency" to trade them this off-season would be that we may not be out of it mid-season, and if we don't extend them and don't trade them, we will lose 3/5 of our starting rotation next offseason with nothing but some comp picks in return. If this happens, it's hard to believe that we would be a contending team going into 2013. That would lead me to advocate trading some of our players and doing a quick rebuild.

 

Thankfully, it sounds like the Brewers are talking with both Greinke and Marcum about extensions, so I don't think the scenario above will happen. I could see us trading one of our starters this offseason, but only if we get a really good return, and as RockCo said, they'd probably need to be MLB ready.

[TheCrew07]

No need to extend Axford, ever. Trade him before he hits free agency. Closers and relievers are never worth what they sign for.

This is exactly how I feel.

 

I'd trade Axford for a young starting pitcher tomorrow.

 

As I've previously posted on numerous occasions I wouldn't extend either Greinke or Marcum for various reasons.

[Eye Black]

The list of projected 2013 Free Agent Starting Pitchers under 30 years old (per mlbtraderumors.com) is pretty short (below).

Matt Cain (28)
Fausto Carmona (29) - $9MM club option
Zack Greinke (28)
Scott Feldman (29) - $9.25MM club option with a $600K buyout
Cole Hamels (29)
Francisco Liriano (29)
Brandon McCarthy (29)
Anibal Sanchez (29)

Barring a 2012 collapse, Greinke appears likely command something North of 5-yrs / 70-million on the open market. Not sure that we are still in a position to extend Greinke this off-season, but I would like to see a good faith offer made to him. I really like the idea of a 1-2 punch of Yo and Zack for years to come.

[JohnBriggs12]

No need to extend Axford, ever. Trade him before he hits free agency. Closers and relievers are never worth what they sign for.

This is exactly how I feel.

 

I'd trade Axford for a young starting pitcher tomorrow.

 

As I've previously posted on numerous occasions I wouldn't extend either Greinke or Marcum for various reasons.

 

Closers and relievers are never worth what they sign for? Mariano Rivera wasn't? And starters are? Huh? How quickly forgotten are Jeff Suppan, Doug Davis, Braden Looper? How about guys like the earlier mentioned John Lackey, Carlos Zambrano, Barry Zito, Johann Santana, Carl Pavano, Dice-K Matsusaka, AJ Burnett, Gil Meche, Scott Kazmir, Oliver Perez, Ben Sheets, etc, etc.

 

If the Brewers do anything in 2012, it will because with K-Rod and Axford, they can play 7 inning games. The Ax man is the premier closer in the NL. Period.