Dealing Randy Wolf in this market

[JohnBriggs12]

The FA pitching market is so thin, a reported 13 teams (not including the Brewers of course) have inquired on Mark Buehrle. Now Buehrle hasn't put up an "ace quality" season since 2005. His numbers in recent years are pretty comparable to Randy Wolf actually. Like Wolf, he's an innings eater mainly. Another guy attracting attention in the FA market of all people is Bruce Chen.

 

Now that begs the following question. If so many teams are interested in discussing a multi year deal with Mark Buehrle, who's less than 3 years younger than Wolf, and Bruce Chen who's a year younger but who's never reached 200 innings wouldn't it be reasonable to assume that teams who don't land Buehrle or Chen might have a strong interest in dealing for Wolf, who's got a year with an option left?

 

If the Brewers are indeed serious about Reyes, don't they need to clear some salary space? It appears to me the Brewers could get some interesting offers if they dangled Wolf out there. Of course the media that covers the Brewers never asks Melvin about dealing pitching, but that doesn't mean he's not discussing it.

 

 

[yoshii8]

I think its a great idea and seems to make a lot of sense. However that doesn't seem like a move Melvin would make to me, unless they were trying to free up money to re-sign Prince.

[Invader3K]

It's probably a realistic possibility.

 

I think we may see some surprising trades this winter. Kenny Williams had a quote yesterday along the lines of, "Some trade opportunities have arisen." Wasn't directly linked to the Brewers, but I just think some weird stuff is going to be happening. It sounds like Melvin and Attanasio expect to contend again, so I think they'll be aggressive and make some moves if opportunity presents itself. Dealing Wolf or maybe Marcum could be part of that.

[markedman5]

Chen will be much cheaper then Wolf so not sure that comparison holds water. No way Chen gets 2 years 20 million which is what you would pay Wolf over that span.

 

Not to mention getting someone as a free agent is always interesting because you don't have to give anything up.

 

I think you would be underwhelmed by the return we would get for Wolf.

[paul253]

I would absolutely consider trading Wolf if the market is there. If you can get a decent prospect for him, pitcher or otherwise (maybe a young third basemen or shortstop) I say go for it. This pitching market is exceptionally thin and the Brewers have two pitchers in Wolf and Marcum who might be appealing to other teams. Just once I'd like to see the Brewers trade someone away while their value is still high.

[JohnBriggs12]

Chen will be much cheaper then Wolf so not sure that comparison holds water. No way Chen gets 2 years 20 million which is what you would pay Wolf over that span.

 

Not to mention getting someone as a free agent is always interesting because you don't have to give anything up.

 

I think you would be underwhelmed by the return we would get for Wolf.

Buehrle figures to get more than the $33 million over 3 that Ted Lilly got last year. Getting 2 years of Wolf for $19.5 million might be more appealing even if you have to give up a decent player.

[chadomac]

The Brewers won 96 games last year and a big part of it was their starting rotation. I don't see them trading Randy Wolf for a pitching prospect. They have another realistic chance to play deep into October again if they upgrade 3B/SS to make up for an offensive loss at 1B.

[endaround]

There is a large difference between trading Wolf and trading Marcum. You can make a case for being able to replace Wolf (or Narveson's) contribution internally. Marcum is much better than either of those two. And it still would be difficult for one guy to take all of Wolf's innings.

[MNBrew]

I think it's overly optimistic to expect that we could replace Wolf -- a 3W-over-.500 SP with a 3.70 ERA in 212 innings -- internally. It's not impossible, but not exactly highly probable.

 

You could make a better case for replacing Narveson -- also 3 games over .500 but a 4.45 ERA in 160+ innings -- internally.

 

Philly's rotation was strong & their offense was at times shaky last year, but what was their first signing? A stud closer (Papelbon). They're exploring hitters, but that wasn't their highest-priority move. I just don't think you can overestimate the value of outstanding SP. Even if our offense isn't better than last year, if the pitching staff amounts to the same quality and the defense is shored up considerably, I'd guess our odds of making the postseason wouldn't be much different than they were last year. And I'd gladly take those odds.

[Raw Biz]

I think it would probably be hard to replace what Wolf did last year and maybe even what he did in 2010. However, that shouldn't be the question. Rather the question should be can we replace what he's expected to produce this year. He will turn 35 next season and has always given up a lot of baserunners. I think he could regress significantly so if we can trade him for something of value, I think we should.

[MNBrew]

I think it would probably be hard to replace what Wolf did last year and maybe even what he did in 2010. However, that shouldn't be the question. Rather the question should be can we replace what he's expected to produce this year. He will turn 35 next season and has always given up a lot of baserunners. I think he could regress significantly so if we can trade him for something of value, I think we should.

People have been expecting Randy Wolf to regress since before he got here. Other than 2 putrid months in the 1st half of 2010 (plus one bullpen-saving outing he endured for the team), overall he's been rather solid for 3 seasons (last one w/ LA, 2 in MIL) and hardly a detriment.

 

As an aside, if you look through enough of the threads on this site and the multitude of glass-is-half-empty mindsets, I think you'll find evidence that pretty much everyone on the Brewers is expected (by one or more posters) to regress next year, and that we should trade about everyone but Braun, Gallardo, Axford, & maybe Lucroy before their value declines.

[nate82]

Narveson would be easier to replace than Wolf and the Brewers should sell on Narveson this year. He won't be expensive and there is an in house replacement ready to go in Fiers.

[dadofandrew]

Wolf is the only SP who has an option for '13, so I'd look to trade Marcum or Greinke. That said, I'd have a deal in place with another FA SP (unless one comes back for Wolf, which seems silly).

[DHonks]

Nate, I really like Fiers as a prospect even though I've never seen him. But, I don't like the idea of trading a big league starting pitcher unless we have to. We need to be getting something in return. If we are clearly upgrading another position, then it makes sense. Even then, Narveson is currently one of 2 starters that is locked up beyond 2012. I'd be really worried if we trade Narvy now and lose Wolf, Marcum, and Greinke next offseason.

[Raw Biz]

I think it would probably be hard to replace what Wolf did last year and maybe even what he did in 2010. However, that shouldn't be the question. Rather the question should be can we replace what he's expected to produce this year. He will turn 35 next season and has always given up a lot of baserunners. I think he could regress significantly so if we can trade him for something of value, I think we should.

People have been expecting Randy Wolf to regress every year he's been here. Other than 2 putrid months in the 1st half of 2010 (plus one bullpen-saving outing he endured for the team), overall he's been rather solid and hardly a detriment.

 

As an aside, if you look through enough of the threads on this site and the multitude of glass-is-half-empty mindsets, I think you'll find evidence that pretty much everyone on the Brewers is expected (by one or more posters) to regress next year, and that we should trade about everyone but Braun, Gallardo, Axford, & maybe Lucroy before their value declines.

I never suggested trading him just to trade him. However, if his value is high and we can get a good return, I wouldn't hesitate. I actually like Wolf but he allows a lot of baserunners without striking out many and those pitchers scare me. Some pitchers are able to have success like that (Doug Davis was one) but they can also fall off a cliff rather suddenly.

I just think we should put more consideration in trading older players when their value is high. Again, don't trade for the sake of trading but also don't be afraid to pull the trigger if something good comes along.

 

[reillymcshane]

Wolf is the only SP who has an option for '13, so I'd look to trade Marcum or Greinke. That said, I'd have a deal in place with another FA SP (unless one comes back for Wolf, which seems silly).

I don't think Wolf is a great pitcher, but the 2013 option might be valuable if Marcum and Greinke don't resign after 2012 - and Wolf continues to pitch well.

 

Right now we have Gallardo and Narveson under control for 2013. We have a group of players that might be ready in 2013 - Fiers, Peralta, Jungmann, Bradley - but there are no promises with young players. And Jungmann and Bradley haven't even pitched - so it might be a lot to count on them this early. Not to mention that injuries could sideline any of these players.

 

Thus, if Wolf is still pitching well, there may be a desire to exercise that 2013 option. The option is for $10 million - with a $1.5 million buyout. So, would Wolf be worth $8.5 million on the open market in 2013? Not sure, but if he pitches in 2012 like he did in 2011, and we lose Marcum and Greinke, he may be with the team another year. It's nice that we have the option available.

[Invader3K]

Good points, reilly. Conversely, though, that option might make him more attractive to other teams, and we might be able to get more for him in trade.

 

I am not saying trade him to trade him...but there might be a team willing to give up one or two good position prospects for him.

[dadofandrew]

I like Fiers and Peralta, but last year we were saying Rogers or Parra could start if needed...how'd that work out?

 

Estrada and others are darn good, quality 6th SP's, but make them the 4th/5th SP because of trade/injury, and suddenly, your staff looks like the Astros.

[Roderick]

What kind of prospect would Wolf merit? His production with his contract versus a free agent pitcher who you aren't giving up a prospect (but maybe a draft pick - type A) to sign?

 

I'm torn. I don't think we should tempt fate that the rotation stays healthy all year and keep the depth. But I would like to see a young guy transition in 2012, to save money and so that we would not have multiple rookies ever starting in the rotation at any time.

 

But if we don't spend the money on Wolf, where does it go? I'd rather see what Gamel and Green can do rather than sign a FA, so I would want to make sure I could extend Grienke or Marcum before I trade Wolf. And I would spend some of the Wolf money on a frontloaded 2012 as part of that extension. That would allow for extra money in future budgets and extra money at the trading deadline if needed.

 

I would also try to ship some money with Wolf to get a better prospect in a trade, under the scenario where we don't sign a big FA.

[pingman]

I would keep Wolf

 

1) must build the team around the starting rotation

 

2) Wolf is underrated .. never underestimate the value of an innings-eater because they save your bullpen

[EbbaStClaire]

It seems as if trading Wolf should be explored as long as there is a specific goal. For example, trade Wolf for an exceptional shortstop prospect and a third base prospect or pitching prospect. I would have to get at least two very good young players for Wolf, one being an outstanding young shortstop. If you can't get the shortstop you want now sign Barmes knowing he'll be adequate and so will Wolf. If Wolf is traded internally there are a number of pitchers who could pick up some of the slack like Peralta, Estrada, Rodgers, & Fiers. I see the absence of a quality shortstop as the biggest void on the 2012 Brewer team. Of course, they could sign Barmes and not trade Wolf. It just depends on whether or not you can get the young players you want and save $20M on Wolf to spend on something else.

[logan82]

I like Fiers and Peralta, but last year we were saying Rogers or Parra could start if needed...how'd that work out?

I am pretty sure most people had given up on Parra as a starter by the end of 2010. Heck I bet most had given up on him as a starter by the end of 2009.

[Roderick]

For example, trade Wolf for an exceptional shortstop prospect and a third base prospect or pitching prospect. I would have to get at least two very good young players for Wolf, one being an outstanding young shortstop.

I don't see any team giving that much away for Wolf when they can sign a FA pitcher and not give away prospects (and maybe no draft pick). Maybe when the music stops and the right team loses out on their free agent bidding we could get one good prospect. But I don't think Wolf's production level is that much more than his cost. He was the best bullpen saver last season for the Brewers.

 

2011 Innings pitched per start:

Wolf 6.43

Gallardo 6.28

Greinkie 6.11

Marcum 6.08

Narveson 5.66

[jmeks23]

Sorry but there's not many 'outstanding' young SS's in the game to begin with. You certainly wouldn't give one up for Randy Wolf. I think you're 'homer' valuing Wolf. He could net a good prospect, but multiple good ones (with one being 'outstanding') is a little out on a limb.