My Knock-Off Power 50

[ramssuperbowl99]

Just to keep everyone anxiously awaiting a P50 update from climbing up the walls, I present to you my (made in China, knock-off) Power 50.

1.

Wily Peralta, RHP, AAA, 22 years old

 

In June, I

wrote this about Peralta, “What has stopped Peralta is inconsistency, and while

he has steadily risen through the minor league ranks, he has yet to really

dominate any of them. It’s becoming more and more likely that this is the real

Wily Peralta, and a back end starter or dominant bullpen arm is his future. He

still has plenty of time to figure it out, but he needs to dominate minor

league levels before he can force his way into a major league rotation.“

 

Almost as

soon as I wrote it, Peralta took the next step. His velocity on his fastball

went from sitting in the low-90’s with good life to being anywhere from 93-98 mph

while maintaining that life. The increase came from Peralta tweaking his

mechanics and becoming healthy from a hamstring pull that he suffered early in

the season, meaning it may not be a flash in the pan. The mechanical tweaks

also helped him improve the command of his secondary stuff, a mid-80’s slider

with nice 2 plane bite and a low-to-mid 80’s changeup with good fade and

improving arm action. Suddenly, Peralta went from a guy with a nice fastball

and inconsistent secondary pitches to a guy with a near overpowering fastball

and a solid 3 pitch mix. His frame isn’t ideal, at 6’2”, 240 pounds. However, he

kind of fits the Chad Billingsley mold of a guy who will eat innings. For what

it’s worth, scouts don’t question his durability despite the fact that he had

Tommy John Surgery as a young guy.

 

While

Peralta hasn’t had a Tim Lincecum type season in the minors, his ERA’s in

Huntsville and Nashville (3.46 in 120 IP and 2.03 in 30 IP) in combination with

his strikeout rate (147 in 141 IP) solid walk rate and good ground ball

inducing ability makes him an impressive pitching prospect. He’s had success at

a young age, his stuff is quite good, and there is no reason he couldn’t start

2012 in Milwaukee’s rotation. As far as the overall prospects in baseball go,

he’s somewhere in the 40-60 group, and he has solidified himself as the best

prospect in Milwaukee’s system by far. Ultimately, he could be a #2 starter,

but the more likely outcome is that he settles into the #3 spot.

 

 

2.

Jed Bradley, LHP, Arizona Fall League, 21

years old

 

Bradley

has all the makings of a frontline starter and is a possible top 100 overall

prospect. He has the size and frame from the left side which scouts love, and

at 6’4”, 225 pounds he is expected to be a 200 IP MLB workhorse. His stuff is

also praised, with a fastball that has touched the high 90’s but generally sits

91-94 mph, which is outstanding for a lefty. He has developing off speed stuff,

highlighted by a nice slider and changeup, the latter of which features nice

arm action. His mechanics won’t need any major tinkering, and aside from

getting used to pro baseball and perfecting some of his secondary stuff,

Bradley has a very short to do list before being major league ready. The major

concern with Bradley, and the only real reason he was available at #15, was his

decreased velocity before the draft. This isn’t terribly unusual, as the man

has pitched a great deal of innings between the Cape Cod league and being the

Yellow Jacket’s ace, so it’s likely he hit the wall.

 

Bradley

will make his Brewers debut in the Arizona Fall League, which typically

resembles somewhere between High A and AA ball. This is indicative of the

Brewers’ faith in Bradley and his advanced repertoire. While seeing Bradley

whether Bradley can regain his velocity will be the most interesting thing

(early results in that regard are positive – he was up to 94 mph in his first

start), if Bradley performs well, he could start in the pitching friendly

Florida State league and be ready for the Big Leagues as early as 2013. His

ultimate upside is going to be dependent on how his velocity comes out, and

whether he can maintain it throughout 200 IP seasons on a regular basis. If he

can, he could be a very good #2 starter in the Drew Pomeranz type mold.

 

3.

Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Unassigned, 21 years old

 

Jungmann,

a 6’6” RHP from Texas, was the Brewers’ top pick in the most recent draft at 12^th

overall. He has nice velocity on his fastball, touching 94-95 mph with some

regularity and flirting with the upper 90’s early in the season. Near the end

of the year, the wear and tear of more than 140 college innings cut his

velocity down to the 91-93 range, though the life and cut on his fastball was

still impressive. He also has the physical build of an ace, as he worked hard

over his 3 year career at Texas to take his rail thin 180 pound frame to a

healthy 225 pound frame. Personally, I think he has 10 to 15 pounds of muscle

to still add (google a picture of him – he’s a rail!), and therefore even a

little bit more projection in is sheer velocity. Despite his nice fastball and

his dominant college seasons, Jungmann has some concerns. The most blatant downside

is that he doesn’t quite offer the same potential as Bradley since he failed to

miss enough bats and rack up the strikeouts we would expect from a true college

ace. The reason is that his secondary stuff comes in as merely passable, with a

fringe changeup and breaking ball that are going to need some polish at the

major league level. The Brewers have often improved their players’ changeups,

so maybe they feel they can do the same with Taylor. If that happens, he shoots

up prospect lists, but until then, he’s going to be a Robin to someone else’s

Batman. Further, he has the ideal size, but I question his ability to go 200 IP

a year because his mechanics are a little goofy. Specifically, he kind of

throws across his shoulder and throws his head out to whip his arm across.

 

The

Brewers elected to not put Jungmann in any leagues, including the AFL, because

of the innings he pitched. I believe he has been assigned to an instructional

league and he should be able to get some rest before resuming next season. I’d

anticipate the Brewers will either send him to High A Brevard County or send

him all the way to AA Huntsville, though it depends on how much tinkering they

do with his mechanics. Jungmann’s innings are already built up, his fastball is

solid, and with a solid winter of instruction and refinement of his secondary

stuff, he has a legitimate chance to be a Brewer in late 2012 or early 2013.

 

 

4.

Tyler Thornburg, RHP, High A, 22 years old

 

Thornburg,

a 22 year old righty out of Charlston Southern, was a Brewers’ 3^rd

rounder in 2010. While his stuff was never a question, his durability was – his

size (5’11”, 185 pounds) is far from ideal and he struggled with some nagging

problems during college and during his first season in rookie ball. While some

organizations essentially penciled him in as a reliever, the Brewers believed

in his ability to develop a changeup as a true third pitch and start in the big

leagues.

 

Thornburg’s

first 2 pitches were never in question. His fastball touches 95 with regularity

and even registered a couple of 98’s on the Brevard County gun later in the

season. While it doesn’t have great life that velocity means it is going to register

a ton of swings and misses, and so far has been effective at suppressing his

home run rates. He also throws a 12-6 curveball which serves as his primary

strikeout offering. Recently, the reports on his changeup are that it is

improving, giving him an offering to get lefties out and renewing hope that

he’s a starter long term. Thornburg has found a way to give his stuff a

downward plane, as his over-the-top motion has the same arm action as Tim

Lincecum (the comparisons stop there, however). Unlike Lincecum, he doesn’t

have a smooth delivery, but rather has a small hitch that gives all of his

pitches some deception to them and helps to compensate for a relatively

straight fastball.

 

Tyler

started off absolutely destroying the Midwest League, posting an absurd 1.57

ERA (backed up by a 2.82 FIP), striking out nearly 10 per 9 and registering a

nice 7-0 record in his 12 starts. He continued this success in the High A

Florida State League after a midseason promotion, posting a 3.57 ERA (3.32 FIP)

while striking out more than 11 guys per 9 in 12 more starts. He sits poised to

start 2012 in AA Huntsville, where his ultimate upside might be more

discernable. His major weaknesses right now are less than optimal control and

command (3.2 BB/9 in Low A and 4.37 in High A), and averaging only 5.2 IP per

start despite being dominant when he did pitch. If Thornburg wants to become

something more than a #4 type starter, he needs to get deeper into games by

walking fewer and develop more groundball ability. (I’m going to mention this

more than 1 time in these write-ups, but a cutter would do Thornburg wonders by

giving him a 4^th pitch that he can get grounders on and throw

consistent strikes with.) Thornburg could be ready as soon as 2013 as a

starter, but more than likely will see his first action as a Brewer out of the

bullpen, where his stuff profiles as a shutdown, good luck, late inning

reliever.

 

5.

Taylor Green, 3B, AAA, 25 years old

 

Green

started out 2011 a footnote that only diehard Brewer fans noticed (unless you

read my 2011 farm report where I stuck him in my “5 more” category #smug).

After an incredible season, I think every Brewer fan, even the casual ones, all

know who Taylor Green is. This season in AAA Nashville, Green hit an

otherworldly .336/.413/.583 with 22 HRs and an outstanding 55/72 BB/K. At 25,

he’s hardly a spring chicken, but production like that is just impossible to

ignore. He came up to the big leagues in September and showed good slap hitting

ability in 37 PAs, hitting for an empty .270 average. Clearly he was adjusting

to the caliber of pitching, as he didn’t walk and didn’t hit for any notable

power. That said, he’s major league ready and should be in the plans of the

Brewers for the start of the 2012 season at 3B.

 

It’s been

a long road for Green to get here. He was a draft and follow out of Junior

College in 2006, then hit poorly in the Pioneer League. Following 2 great years

in low A and high A, he hurt his wrist and missed essentially all of 2009

rehabbing. In 2010, he held his own in AA but didn’t show much power. Now,

completely healthy, we are starting to see why Green was the Brewers MiLB

Player of the Year in 2007.

 

From a

scouting perspective, Green is hardly toolsy. He’s 5’11”, 200 pounds and kind

of stocky. He has a contact-based swing where he keeps his bat in the zone for

a long time and displays a careful eye at the plate. He’s got some, but not

outstanding, bat speed and can connect occasionally giving him average power.

His arm and his range are average at 3B, and while he won’t make mistakes at

2B, I hardly expect he’s going to get significant playing time there.

Ultimately, Green is the kind of player that scouts miss. He doesn’t wow you

with any one tool, but gets the best out of his average tools and is one of

those guys who seemingly can be an average to tick above average regular in

spite of no overwhelming physical gifts. One area that does offer some upside

is his platoon ability – Green OPS’d 1.078 against righties this year but only

.741 against lefties this season in AAA.

 

As for a

final prediction – Green has made tremendous strides and has forced himself

into the Brewers’ 3B plans in the future. He is the kind of guy you can stick

near the top of a lineup and watch him get slap hits and walks. While he won’t

steal bases and he won’t hit more than 20 HRs annually, he will play defense,

take pitches (and be annoying to pitchers in the process), hit .290 or so, OBP

as much as .370, and score a ton of runs because of the guys behind him. If his

defense improves and he can stick at 3B, he is the kind of guy who can quietly

post 3 win seasons.

 

 

6.

Jorge Lopez, RHP, AZL, 18 years old

 

Lopez is essentially the exact opposite of Taylor Green, and it’s

funny they are right next to each other on this list. (I also seriously debated

switching them, and in my opinion they are more or less interchangeable.) Green

is old, maxed out physically, producing at a high level and ready for the big

leagues. Lopez is young, has ridiculous amounts of physical projection left,

hasn’t really done anything from a production standpoint and needs a long time

to be ready for the bigs.

 

Specifically, Lopez was taken in the 2^nd round of this

years’ draft by Milwaukee, but the general consensus was that he could have

gone much higher than that. BaseballAmerica ranked him the 35^th best

player available, and in that regard is was a quiet steal for Milwaukee. What

scouts don’t see in Green is so present in Lopez. He’s 6’4”, 165 pounds soaking

wet and absolutely rail thin. He throws about 88-91, usually on the lower end

of that scale, but with good movement. His motion is effortless right now,

coming off a slightly higher than three-quarters arm slot and his control of

the pitch is good. The velocity in itself is amazing, because there is clearly

at least another 2-3 mph in that fastball based on his athletic ability, youth,

and frame.

 

Right now he has a curveball that can flash plus but often is

below average because he’s still learning how to throw it and a changeup that

is basically a show-me pitch. He pitches to both sides of the plate, gets nice

run on his fastball, and generates grounders effectively. It’s really tough to

put a grade on his secondary pitches, because the Brewers haven’t really had a

chance to work with him yet. He might come out throwing a slider, cutter, and

knuckle-curve for all we know, but the fact that he has decent feel for a

curveball is a big plus.

 

Athletically, Lopez is insane. In fact, if athleticism on the

mound was a tool, he’d grade out as an 80 right now and would certainly have

the best overall tool in the Brewers system. In fact, not only was he

considered the best high school baseball player in Puerto Rico this year, he

was also the top volleyball prospect in the territory. Think about that for a

second.

 

Ultimately, Lopez is probably going to either be a top of the

rotation starter or not make the big leagues. His athleticism and the potential

in his right arm is just crazy, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the right

mechanical tweak getting Lopez’s velocity up to the 92-95 mph range with that

same movement. With all of these young players, however, Lopez also just might

never figure it out. Tough to know right now. All we do really know is that we

need to keep our eyes on this kid, because he could be a potential future stud.

 

 

It’s worth noting I see a significant drop off in talent after

these top 6 guys. While I won’t say I expect these guys to make the big

leagues, I’d imagine these guys would rank in the top 10-15 in most if not all

systems in baseball right now. If they miss the top 10, it’s not by much.

Afterwards, these guys are top 20 players for a little while.

 

 

7.

Cody Scarpetta, RHP, AA, 23 years old

 

Scarpetta is a frustrating prospect, as he has all the stuff you

could want in a pitcher, but hasn’t ever put it together. In fact, you can

think about him as a year older and a year behind Wily Peralta on the

development curve. His control has been his issue throughout his career, and

with walk rates of 4.71, 4.71 and 4.69 as he’s climbed the ladder it just

hasn’t improved. It all starts for him with throwing the fastball for strikes

and maintaining his mechanics. Now, that is something that can be improved –

ask Wily Peralta, who had the same problem then figured it out after spending a

little time in AA.

 

Stuff wise, Scarpetta has the nice fastball that sits in the 92

range and can touch 96. His out pitch is a great curveball – it’s the best in

the system and has been for some time, probably rating somewhere around 65 on

the 20-80. He’s got a changeup, but it’s a show-me pitch that he mostly

uses to set up his other two offerings. Physically, he’s got an imperfect, but

okay 6’2”, 250 pound frame, so he’s a Chad Billingsley type player.

Unfortunately, he’s not that great an athlete on the mound, which probably has

a lot to do with why he’s struggling to throw strikes. Further, he’s got some

durability issues, as he’s already had Tommy John Surgery and frequently has

been put on the MiLB DL in his career.

 

So, to sum it up eloquently, we’ve got a guy with good stuff, no

real 3^rd pitch, durability issues and command troubles. That spells

reliever to me, and because of Scarpetta’s time on the 40-man, the Brewers are

going to have to appeal to send him to the minors for another year or risk

losing him in the Rule 5 draft. It’s expected that appeal will be successful,

so you can anticipate that Scarpetta has one last shot at “figuring it out”

between AA and AAA this season. If the command improves, he can be a mid

rotation starter who alternates between brilliance and pull-your-hair-out

frustration. If not, he’ll be a very good reliever who should set up and might

be able to close.

 

 

8.

Mat Gamel, 1B, AAA, 26 years old

 

He’s not technically a prospect, having surpassed the minimum AB

requirement, but I consider him here because he hasn’t really had a full time

shot at the big league level. Gamel has been stuck in AAA for 2 years now, and

has shown master of the level going .310/.372/.540 with 28 HRs at 1B this

season. He’s got a nice lefty stroke with some good pop out of his 6’0” 200

pound frame and should be a well above-average defender at 1B (he was a

converted 3B because his arm was comically inaccurate).

 

He’s had a tough time in minimal big league appearances over the

past 2 years, mostly just coming up to DH during interleague play. With more

extended ABs, I’d expect him to get more comfortable in the big leagues and

control the zone much better. At 26, he’s starting to max out his potential,

but might have the ability to put together some 2 win seasons based on his

ability to hit for both average contact ability and pretty decent power. The

key for him is going to be working counts and simultaneously limiting

strikeouts, which he demonstrated the ability to do in AAA by posting a career

low strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate.

 

Being a 1B really hurts Gamel’s value, and the organization

already has shown some disdain because they don’t believe in his work ethic.

Melvin and co. did not reward him with a September callup this year and Don

Money recently came out and publically criticized him, questioning if he has

what it takes to be a major league ballplayer. In this regard, it wouldn’t

shock me if the Brewers bring in someone outside the organization to take over

for Prince Fielder and essentially leave Gamel out in the cold during 2012. If

they don’t and Gamel does finally get his shot, expect a fringe average bat at

1B, above average defense, and ultimately 1-2 win production. While that’s not

superstar potential, it’s still cost-controlled hitting from the left side of

the plate and Gamel is still a valuable piece who should be in the Brewers’

plans in some form or another in 2012.

 

 

9.

Michael Fiers, RHP, AAA, 26 years old

 

I cannot believe I’m ranking him this high. I really can’t. But

when, in 10 starts at AAA, you go 64.2 IP, 8-0 with a 1.11 ERA while striking

out 9.6 per 9 and walking 3.1 per 9, I’m basically forced to rank you highly.

That goes double when the first half of the season was spent in AA, the

peripherals were actually better and the ERA was 2.6. Fiers has always been an

afterthought to most scouts, simply because the guy doesn’t have elite (or even

good) stuff, but if “know-how-to-pitchery” was a tool he’d have an 80.

 

Fiers was drafted in the 22^nd round as a college senior

from Nova Southeastern University, wherever that is. He was great in relief for

Helena, posting a 35 K/BB (!), and then splitting his first full pro season

between High A and AA in 2010. He’s got a nice frame of 6’3” and 200 pounds but

what sunk him in the draft and in scouts’ eyes was a lack of velocity. He’s

88-92 mph, but has a fair bit of deception and some good movement that comes

from his overhand delivery that might make you think of Josh Collmenter. He

also throws a mid-80’s slider that is probably a 40 on the 20-80 scale, a good

looping curveball, a great changeup (55 on the 20-80) and a cut fastball. As

you probably guessed based on the sheer amount of pitches he’s throwing,

keeping guys off-balance is key for Fiers and he does a great job of it. Every

pitch comes from the same arm angle and action, he commands most of his pitches

pretty well, and as a result the sum of his stuff plays better than the

individual pitch grades.

 

He’s not an ace or a mid-rotation type starter. He’s not who the

Brewers should be building their organization around. But he’s a solid #5

starter who is 100% major league ready and could contribute as a long reliever

immediately. If he can find some additional velocity coming out of the bullpen,

he might be a dynamite reliever. While comparing anyone to Shuan Marcum is

foolish, since Marcum has a true 75 pitch in his changeup and crafty righties

are always a long shot to make the majors, Fiers pitches the same way.

 

 

10.

D’Vontrey Richardson, CF, High A, 23 years old

 

Richardson is a classic ‘tools’ guy in CF. A premium athlete who

was a Florida State option-based quarterback, he’s a 70 runner with a 70 arm

who never had a chance to develop baseball skills before signing with Milwaukee

for $400k. He’s 6’1” 210 pounds despite his impressive speed, has great bat

speed, and has some pop in his wrists. While the bold predictions of 25-25

HR-SB seasons are probably a thing of the past, the FSL likely sapped a fair

bit of his power. The major improvement Richardson needs to make is reducing

strikeouts by improving his pitch recognition, and he did so this season. His

K% went from 28% to 18% despite dealing with nagging injuries. While his walk

rate also dropped a fair bit, his average increased from .234 to .284 and his

OBP stayed the same. That’s the kind of improvement we need to see from D’Vo

consistently before we can more accurately assess his ultimate role in

Milwaukee.

 

Richardson has a laundry list of things to improve upon. First

off, 70 runners are supposed to be effective basestealers. And, well,

Richardson has been caught more often than he’s successfully stolen bases thus

far in his MiLB career. If he learns how to efficiently steal bases, he could

be a stud and post 25 steals a year. Next, he needs to get more comfortable at

the plate and establish his strike zone recognition. This should simultaneously

lower his strikeout rate and allow him to showcase some of his impressive

power.

 

Richardson is going to start next season in AA, and it will be a

make or break year for him. While he’s 24, he’s lost a couple years to football

and is a couple years behind in development. If he can adjust and become less

mistake prone, the sky is the limit. If not, we might have to start thinking

about him as a defensive replacement or 5^th OFer. He’s got nice

contact skills, impressive BP power, great bat speed, potential to be a great

defender, and can move on the basepaths. He just needs to cut down the errors.

The Brewers’ patience here could be really rewarded.

 

 

11.

Scooter Gennett, 2B, A+, 21 years old

 

Ryan ‘Scooter’ Gennett was a 16^th round draft pick of

the Brewers back in 2009 and was aggressively assigned to Low A Wisconsin out

of the gate in 2010. He rewarded the Brewers, hitting an impressive

.309/.354/.463 with 9 HRs and 39 2Bs (!) in 118 games. This season was a bit of

a letdown for him, while he hit .300 in the notoriously pitcher friendly FSL,

the doubles power that made him an attractive prospect at 2B more or less

vanished (he only hit 20 in nearly 140 games), and his triple slash line of

.300/.334/.406 suffered as a result. Now, don’t get me wrong, hitting .300 in a

crappy hitting high A league in your 2^nd season in pro ball is nice,

but really there isn’t too much else there in that line. That said, his

full-season stat line doesn’t tell the full picture, because in the 2^nd

half he hit .333/.356/.480 and has wowed scouts this far in the Arizona Fall

League. Supposedly, this is not just a lucky spike either, he’s made

adjustments throughout the year and has successfully adapted to the next step

in the ladder.

 

Scooter is the kind of guy that needs to prove guys wrong. At

5’9”, 165 pounds, he’s not going to show any really overwhelming tools that are

going to make scouts think he has a shot at being a big league regular (much

less a star). While the contact tool probably grades out at 65, he’s error

prone at 2B, and has a bunch of 35’s and 40’s rounding out his skill set. Now,

scouts are always going to be drawn to a guy with a 65 hit tool, and that might

make Scooter valuable to another organization with a vacancy at 2B, but his lack

of defensive ability puts the Brewers in a bit of a bind. Specifically, he’s pretty

much stuck on 2B. He’s not a SS since he doesn’t have the range, and he’s not a

3B because he doesn’t have the arm. That means he’s going to probably be stuck

behind Rickie Weeks for the foreseeable future. Scooter is yet another guy who

has a chance to make a name for himself with a big AA season. While I’d hardly

say a 22 year old in AA is in a make or break year, if he comes out hitting

like he did in the 2^nd half he might draw the kind of trade

consideration from another club that could prompt the Brewers into dealing him

for a useful piece. The other thing he can do to improve his stock as a

prospect is command the zone better and draw more walks. While moving up the

ladder and decreasing your K rate is tough to do at the same time, Scooter certainly

has the contact ability to get it done.

 

 

12.

Logan Schafer, CF, AAA, 25 years old

 

Schafer was always kind of grouped in with “one of the many

Brewers OFs who either can’t hit or can’t defend enough to be big league

regulars” group. That’s still probably true, but he’s done a ton for his stock

this season. First off, the good – his glove is great and could be average or a

tick above in CF, and ridiculous in either corner. That alone makes him a good

option as a defensive replacement. Second, he walks a bunch, doesn’t strike out

much, and should hit for some average in the big leagues. Splitting his time

evenly between AA and AAA, he hit .296/.364/.386 in AA and .331/.401/.521 in

AAA. Now, he basically has no power to speak of, only hitting 5 HRs this season

(all of which came in AAA). He can hit some doubles and triple (27 combined in

130 games) and he’s not a bad basestealer (18-8 SB-CS this year), but really

he’s a slap hitter.

 

Unfortunately for Schafer, he’s a lefty and Nyjer Morgan is under

contract for 3 more years. That really limits his ability to a 5^th

OFer, pinch hitter and defensive replacement. That said, if he can keep the

strikeouts down and the plate discipline intact, he’s got a shot to OBP .350 at

the big league level and could be a potential 2-3 win player. If not, he’s got

a chance to be an outstanding backup OFer.

 

 

13.

Nick Bucci, RHP, A+, 21 years old

 

Bucci was drafted as a 17 year old out of Canada in the 18^th

round by the Brewers, who have constantly shown an interest in him. They

assigned him to the Pioneer League as an 18 year old, where he had marginal

success in 12 starts (4.5 ERA but 3 K/BB). They showed even more aggressiveness

with him before 2010, placing him in low A as a 19 year old (which is

completely uncharacteristic of an organization that is quite slow promoting

pitchers). Bucci took the next step up the ladder this season to High A despite

a 5.1 BB/9. This season he threw 150 IP in his age-20 season in the Florida

State League while striking out 7 per 9 and walking 3 per 9. His ERA of 3.84

was backed up by his FIP, giving him a very impressive performance and lining

him up for a campaign at AA next season.

 

From a scouting perspective, Bucci still has a decent bit of

upside left in his frame. Starting the season he was in the 89-92 mph range,

but a velocity spike has put him now in the low-90s consistently and renewed

hope that he can miss bats at the big league level. He also mixes in a slower

curveball and a changeup that needs more work, but each pitch got more swings

and misses as the year progressed. Based on his size (6’2”, 180 pounds), his

effortless motion, and his young age, you wouldn’t be that crazy to project

another mph or two in the fastball. All in all, 2012 is the year where Bucci

shows what he’s made of. You’d have to think he’d be a good option out of the

bullpen without too much more development simply because he’d be likely to be

in the 93-95 mph range. If he shows he can play in AA at 21, you might be able

to project him as a middle of the rotation guy. Otherwise, you might see him

more at the back end of a rotation.

 

 

14.

Caleb Gindl, OF, AAA, 22 years old

 

Gindl is the kind of prospect who could easily be a part of the

Brewers plans in 2012, as this past season he demonstrated that he’s about as

close to MLB ready as you get. This season in 126 AAA games, he posted a triple

slash line of .307/.390/.472 with 15 HRs. The OBP really stands out and

reflects one of Gindl’s biggest strengths, as during full season ball in his

career his walk rates are 10.9%, 12.3%, 10.3% and 11.7% as he’s worked his way

up the ladder. He also has a decent amount of pop, posting a career minor

league ISO of around .160 and reducing his strikeouts below the 20% mark.

 

The problem with Gindl is a lack of ceiling, both literally and

figuratively. The little smurf is 5’9” and about 200 pounds with a left handed

swing that makes you think more of a doubles hitter than someone with real

power. Without the frame to generate elite bat speed, Gindl probably doesn’t

project to hit for enough power to be a full time corner outfielder. However,

his defense at either corner is fantastic – he has both the arm and the range

to be above average in right field.

 

His ultimate projection depends, as on one hand Gindl’s walk rate,

potential OBP and defense means he’s going to produce a ton of value that might

not be readily visible to scouts. On the other hand, I doubt he hits for enough

power at the MLB level to justify a full time starters’ role, as a great deal

of his slugging ability came from hitting in the Western States of the PCL

(which are generally launch pads). Further, those of you who know the 22-24-26

role look at Gindl’s production in AAA at such a young age and would expect him

to be an above average starter in the big leagues. His final projection is

probably somewhere in between, and he might be able to put together a couple of

2 win seasons. Immediately, he represents a huge upgrade over Mark Kotsay as a

4^th OFer and pinch hitter.

 

 

15.

Hunter Morris, 1B, A+, 23 years old

 

Morris is the kind of guy who can just drive you nuts

sometimes. A 2^nd round pick

and projected RF by the Boston Red Sox out of high school, the Brewers drafted

Morris in the 4^th round of the 2010 draft out of Auburn. The pick

was generally praised, and the Brewers rewarded Morris’ early signing by giving

him 71 games in Low A Wisconsin. All in all, he kept his head above water with

a wRC+ of 103 and a triple slash line of .251/.306/.436. This season, they

brought him up to high A Brevard County where he responded by hitting a team

record 19 HRs during the full season. Unfortunately, the positives stop there,

as his triple slash line of .271/.299/.461 pretty much shows exactly what

Morris can and can’t do. He’s got great power and a sweet power stroke off of a

6’4” frame, but he just cannot take a flipping walk. This season he walked 3.4%

of the time and struck out 15.8% of the time. Urgh. Worse yet, scouts question

his strike zone discipline so while I might have been able to chalk it up to a

young guy learning how to hit at a tough level before, you have to wonder if

Morris is ever going to OBP enough to be an effective 1B. Regardless, he’ll

likely start 2012 in AA, and if he can develop some command of the strike zone,

he could develop into a nice left handed power bat that the Brewers need. If

not, he’s more of a “pop off the bench” kind of player.

 

 

16.

Santo Manzanillo, RHP, AA, 22 years old

 

Santo Manzanillo essentially came out of nowhere in 2011 after

posting some middling years in his earlier history with the organization.

Really, it’s a pretty simple scouting report. You’re looking at a guy who was

injured early in his career and has just now regained his velocity (and is

still in the process of learning how to control it). There’s some great upside

here though, and he sneaks into the top 20 based on one thing and one thing

only – he throws 98-100 mph. Yep, he approaches Mach Strasburg. The fact that

his ERA has gone from 9.2 to 5.8 to 1.8 in the past 3 years shows you not only

how raw he was, but how much improvement he’s made. At 22 and in AA, he’s right

on track and, if he shows some improvement in his secondary pitch (a high 80’s

slider that is either completely wicked or really hittable), he’s got all the

makings of a potential closer. How good he’ll be is ultimately going to be

determined by his command development and that slider, but he has the 75+

fastball out of the bullpen and that alone demands the attention of Brewers

fans. In fact, if he develops right in instructionals, he could be ready as

soon as mid-2012 to be the successor to K-Rod.

 

 

17.

David Goforth, RHP, Helena, 23 years old

 

Goforth was a really nice pickup for the Brewers in the 7^th

round of the 2011 MLB Draft, as Keith Law ranked him the 96^th best

prospect available. A college senior, Goforth’s stock dropped because he’s

exclusively a bullpen arm and doesn’t offer the everyday upside or elite IP

ability of some other prospects. That said, the guy can chuck a baseball. At

6’0” and 190 pounds, he’s not super tall and his delivery has a great deal of

effort, but when you can touch 99 mph with regularity and hit triple digits

every once in a while, who cares? He compliments that with a cut fastball that’s

about 88-92 mph, and can more or less throw a changeup and curveball.

Obviously, command of the offspeed pitches is his problem, as is the fact that

he simply can’t throw a breaking pitch. Early pro results were mixed, as

Goforth gave up a fair bit of hits, but struck out more than a guy per inning,

walked just over 2 per 9, and gave up some HRs. A 3.5 FIP isn’t bad, but I kind

of expected a dominating performance from a college pitcher who throws so hard.

That said, velocity is really important and Goforth has plenty of it. He should

move quite quickly through the system, probably ending as high as AA this next

season and offering setup or closing potential down the road depending on how

his command improves and if he can develop a slider or refine his curveball.

 

 

18.

Yadiel Rivera, SS, 19 years old, Helena

 

Rivera, a 9^th round pick in 2010 out of Puerto Rico,

was a classic tools pick by the Brewers. He started his career in the Arizona

Fall League where he looked as raw as his projections, OPSing under 600. The

Brewers had a complete lack of true shortstops in low A ball this season, so

they let Rivera fry there until the Pioneer league started, when they demoted

him. In Helena, he showed pretty impressive pop out of his wiry, 6’2” 175 pound

frame, hitting 14 doubles, 7 triples (!) and 8 dingers in just over 70 games.

Unfortunately, he’s still learning how to recognize pitches and work counts, as

he hit just .248/.285/.406 while walking only 14 times and striking out 91. He

did, however, add 7 steals.

 

From a scouting perspective, Rivera screams upside. He’s a true SS

provided he doesn’t grow another 2 or 3 inches, with amazing range. He

routinely makes plays that awe scouts, and, unless you consider Martin

Maldonado a prospect, Rivera has the best defensive tools in

the system. Therefore, he doesn’t really have to hit all that much to be a

useful piece, but this is where he really gets tantalizing. He has a good swing

and the type of frame that, despite being skinny, generates nice pop. When he

fills out a little bit more due to a nice workout regimen, I expect him to hit

for good power. He’s got fairly strong wrists and some bat speed, so there is

hope that he might be able to improve his pitch recognition and become a

complete SS prospect. As it stands, he’s probably due for another round in

Wisconsin, and we’ll be able to see how quickly he’s improving. If he hits

there, even if it is a pedestrian kind of line, he’s going to skyrocket up this

list.

 

 

19.

Michael Reed, CF, AZL, 18 years old

 

Some people might think it’s aggressive to rank an 18 year old

toolsy CF who was a 5^th round pick this highly, but I really think

the Brewers got a steal with Reed. He signed for $600 grand instead of going to

college at Ole Miss, and some really thought Reed would be a 1^st

rounder in 2014 if he progressed like expected.

 

 

Scouting reports on Reed are mixed – if you saw him on a good

night, you saw a supplemental round or 2^nd round pick with plus

speed, a plus raw power, and good contact ability. If you saw him on an off

night, you saw everything but the hitting ability, which concerned you. Of what

there is no doubt is that he’s got the tools to defend anywhere in the OF, as

his speed is great and he’s touched 90 from the mound. Further, his 6’0”, 210

pound frame, good speed, and left handed stroke offer insight as to his

athleticism. What remains to be seen is whether he’ll walk and whether he’ll

hit. Through a small sample of Arizona League play, Reed struggled in a small

sample, and likely he’ll be back to Arizona (though he could wind up going to

Helena). Reed’s ultimate potential is tantalizing, and therefore Brewers fans

need to keep an eye on him and his progression. If he learns to hit and walk,

he’ll move quickly and play a lockdown CF.

 

 

20.

Orlando Arcia, SS, DSL, 17 years old

 

I’m going out on a limb here, as ranking a 17 year old who has yet

to play ball in the states this highly over our 3^rd round pick (a

college pitcher) seems kind of insane. But man did Arcia play this season. As a

16 year old SS, he posted a line of .294/.386/.459 with 6 HRs, a walk rate of

12% and a K rate of 8%. He also managed to swipe 13 bags with only 4 CS. While

the line is impressive enough on its own, the fact that the DSL is one of the

most pitcher friendly leagues in existence makes it even more insane. Further,

Ben Badler likes him and thinks he’s got solid tools across the board and has a

chance to stick at short. Jon Sickels even heard that his defense was quite

good at SS, and while his 6 foot 165 pound frame might mean he’s only a couple

inches away from outgrowing the position, he could play a very good 3B.

 

Arcia’s ceiling is going to be more accurately determined when we

see how he does in full season ball. I have virtually no doubt he’s coming

stateside this season. The Brewers made a big time statement when they stuck

former stud SS prospect Alcides Escobar in Helena as a 17 year old, and they

might do the same with Arcia.

 

 

21.

Andrew Gagnon, RHP, Helena, 21 years old

 

Gagnon was the Brewers 3^rd round pick out of Long Beach

State this season. There is a fair bit to like here, as Gagnon has a nice

fastball that is 90-93 and touched 94 in school, a low to mid 80’s changeup

that is an average pitch, and a curve-slider mix. Unfortunately, the two

breaking pitches have blended into each other thus far in his career, and while

Gagnon was a young college pick (only 20 years old on draft day), I have to

wonder if he really is only going to be able to throw 1 breaking ball in the

big leagues. That means it might make sense for him to develop a two-seam or

cut fastball to keep a nice 4 pitch mix. In Helena, Gagnon was really hittable

in a limited sample, with a BABIP of .462 and a strand rate of 50% killing his

ERA. His FIP was a much more respectable 2.94 mostly based on a nice strikeout

rate near 13. Ultimately, his 6’4”, 200 pound frame gives him mid-rotation

upside if everything breaks right and there is no doubt that his nice, clean

motion and size give him 200 IP a year potential. He won’t be an ace, but a

potential #4 starter is a nice piece, and we’ll know much more as he starts

next season in Low A Wisconsin.

 

 

22.

Kentrail Davis, OF, A+, 23 years old

 

Kentrail’s 2011 season can really be summed up by 1 word –

disappointment. After clobbering the Midwest league to end an injury riddled

full-season debut, hopes were high. The University of Tennessee product was

praised for his contact ability coming out of school, and people were expecting

him to hit .300 in the big leagues and hit for high averages in the minors

almost in his sleep. While he was only 5’9” and kind of built like Caleb Gindl

(with a similar lefty stroke too), scouts really thought he might have 20 HR

pop in his wrists. So far, everything looks wrong.

 

Davis went into High A FSL for a second time after dealing with a

hamstring pull in 2010. Healthy this year, Brewer fans expected more. Instead

they got a line of .245/.317/.361 while watching him post a 5% drop in walk

rate from his first FSL go around and not significantly changing his strikeout

rate. Further, the power that we thought might show up manifested in 8 HRs.

Really the only positive on the year was that he stole 33 bases.

 

Expectations on Davis need to be changed, and changed

dramatically. Beforehand, we were wondering if the guy would hit enough to play

RF and run enough to take over once in a while in CF (as he’s not a pure CF).

Now we’re wondering if he’s going to be seeing a High A for the 3^rd

time, and we’re starting to see that the guy who was supposed to have a great

hit tool above all else just plain isn’t hitting. Davis needs to demonstrate to

the Brewers that he can still make consistent contact and establish both

average and power before he can really be considered back in the Brewers’ full

time plans. He’s got the talent to do it, no question (and that’s why he’s

still in the top 25). We all saw what he was capable of in college. I just

don’t know if he will.

 

 

23.

Eric Arnett, RHP, Helena, 23 years old

 

Here he is, the 2009 1^st round pick who has been a

major disappointment so far in is minor league career. Here’s something else

that might surprise Brewer fans: 3.63, 3.51, 5.67, 3.82, 3.16. Those are

Arnett’s FIPs so far in his minor league career. He lost his stuff in 2010

based on complete inability to repeat his mechanics and a velocity drop, but

came back healthier this season. He’s 89-94 with his fastball, he’s got a nice

split finger, his slider is getting swings and misses and he’s learning to

throw that slider for strikes. I know he’s been extraordinarily hittable thus

far in his minor league career and has struggled to get guys out, but he

doesn’t walk batters, he strikes guys out and thus far he’s kept the ball on

the ground. Further, physically, he has everything you could want as his frame

is a near perfect 6’5”, 230 pounds. While he’s not going to be an ace, if his

defense can start helping him out a little bit and he can start pitching to his

FIP, he’ll move quickly through the system. I’m actually eager to see him at

Low A this next season.

 

 

24.

Max Walla, RF, Helena, 20 years old

 

Walla, a 2^nd round pick in the 2009 draft out of New

Mexico, finally started putting together some of his ability on the field this

season. Playing 69 games in right field for Helena, he hit .285/.374/.411 with

22 XBHs. It’s a huge step forward for Walla, who has spent the past 3 seasons

in rookie ball striking out too much to be effective. While his 25% whiff rate

isn’t exactly ideal, he dropped his K% 10 points while walking more this

season. From a scouting perspective, Walla can hit. He’s 6 foot, 200 pounds

with a ton of pop in his wrists and great bat speed as a lefty. While the frame

doesn’t scream power, his batting practice sessions were absurd – in one high

school workout he was thrown 60 pitches and put 38 of them out of the yard. A

former competitive swimmer (woot!), Walla has a ton of strength in his compact

frame while should allow him to hit for average and power. Further, while he’s

not a great runner, his arm (which touched 90 in high school from the mound as

a lefty) and his route running mean he should be more than capable of playing

right field in the big leagues. All that’s left for him to do is continue

improving his pitch recognition and playing up to his tools. This season Walla

went from a guy who just doesn’t look like he can figure it out to a guy who is

now a solid sleeper candidate for 2012. If he plays well in full season ball,

he’ll find himself much higher on this list come 2012.

 

 

25.

Nick Ramirez, 1B, Low A, 22 years old

 

Ramirez was the Brewers’ 4^th round pick this year and

signed quickly, allowing him to get nearly 60 games in before the minor league

season ended. A 6’3”, 225 pounds, the frame and the raw power are obvious, and

he showed it in Helena hitting .369/.383/.689 with 8 HRs and 9 2Bs in just 23

games. The Brewers saw he wasn’t being challenged and brought him up to Low A

Wisconsin, where he hit .197/.248/.350 in 36 games (but did have 15 more XBHs).

There are two problems with Ramirez that cause me to downgrade him from where

you might expect him to be – the first is that he doesn’t walk. Scouts were

critical of his pitch recognition in college and it translated as he posted a

walk rate under 5% in pro ball while striking out nearly 5 times as often as he

walked. The second is that hi

[TooLiveBrew]

Wow. I don't even want to think about how much time & effort went into this, rams. Took me about 15 min. to read through it all, and it was well worth the read.

 

It's pretty apparent that the Brewers' system still has a long way to go. However, between the last draft, & as you noted, the excellent work in LA, they're certainly heading in the right direction. Overall, though, I guess Brewers fans will have to look forward to the system being 'set back' again by graduations of guys like Green, Gamel, Peralta, Rogers, & Kintzler.

 

Awesome job, & thanks for the great reading/discussion material.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Wow. I don't even want to think about how much time & effort went into this, rams. Took me about 15 min. to read through it all, and it was well worth the read.

 

It's pretty apparent that the Brewers' system still has a long way to go. However, between the last draft, & as you noted, the excellent work in LA, they're certainly heading in the right direction. Overall, though, I guess Brewers fans will have to look forward to the system being 'set back' again by graduations of guys like Green, Gamel, Peralta, Rogers, & Kintzler.

 

Awesome job, & thanks for the great reading/discussion material.

Thanks, I appreciate it.

There are two rotations that I think are noteworthy when looking at Milwaukee's MiLB system. Here they are:

Rotation 1: Peralta/Thornburg/Bradley/Jungmann/Lopez

Rotation 2: Perez/Gomez/Rizzo/Dicent/Peguero

The first one is the top 5 pitching prospects we have in the system. The 2nd one is a LA rotation. It's pretty amazing that the Brewers have essentially reconstructed an entire LA program in 2-ish years without breaking the bank on any one prospect. That is a huge kudos to their scout team. What remains is to begin moving these prospects to America and getting them in the AFL as soon as possible. While this is hardly easy, SS controversies like "who will be our AFL SS - McFarland or Arcia" are the kind of thing prospect nuts dream of. What also is critical is to continue mining Canada for everything its got. Jalen Harris in the 41st round could be the steal of the century if his tools develop I think they might. Nick Bucci has already proven the Brewers have a proven eye up north-ey.

Ultimately, 2012 is a make-or-break year for many Brewer prospects. If we get some big time breakout seasons, we'll be a top 10 system. If not, we'll need more outstanding drafting like 2011 to ensure that there will be great, cheap beermakers in the future.

[DHonks]

hmm, learn something new every day. I had no clue that Scarpetta had Tommy John Surgery in high school. Still holding out hope for him

[foamboy1]

Loved the work. Thanks for sharing. I really enjoyed the insight on this year's draft class and the LA guys. Thanks.

[TooLiveBrew]

One guy that I legitimately would like to find out more about is Seth Harvey. Since being drafted out of Washington St. in the 37th round of 2010, he's posted a sub-3 ERA & better than 3/1 K/BB ratio in 55.1 relief innings. I'm assuming that, since he was such a late pick, & that he hasn't been pushed more aggressively, that his arsenal isn't very impressive.

 

If rams or anyone else could provide some scouting info on him, I'd be grateful.

[CheezWizHed]

That was a really nice write up. I'm not sure how TLB got through it in 15 minutes... took me way longer! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I do have a couple comments/questions based on what you wrote:

1) You made a couple comments about lack of power with someone in the FSL (Gennett for example). Traditionally, the FSL was very poor on power, especially on RH bats. So Gennett hitting SLGing 406 is actually pretty impressive to me (compared to 436 in low-A)

2) You made a couple comments about a SS growing too tall for the position. I'm assuming you are equating height to lack of range? Or what did you mean by that?

3) Why no love for Martin Maldonado? I would say at worst, he should rate above Roberts and Garfield. You noted that he would be the best defensive prospect if considered him a prospect. And he has shown more hitting ability at a higher level then either of those two.

 

Also: Fiers has always been an afterthought to most scouts, simply because the guy doesn’t have elite (or even good) stuff, but if “know-how-to-pitchery” was a tool he’d have an 80.

 

Glad to have you on board. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[Invader3K]

Great job. I enjoyed reading it. I hope you keep doing these.

 

Also, no Brock Kjeldgaard?

[ramssuperbowl99]

That was a really nice write up. I'm not sure how TLB got through it in 15 minutes... took me way longer! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I do have a couple comments/questions based on what you wrote:

1) You made a couple comments about lack of power with someone in the FSL (Gennett for example). Traditionally, the FSL was very poor on power, especially on RH bats. So Gennett hitting SLGing 406 is actually pretty impressive to me (compared to 436 in low-A)

2) You made a couple comments about a SS growing too tall for the position. I'm assuming you are equating height to lack of range? Or what did you mean by that?

3) Why no love for Martin Maldonado? I would say at worst, he should rate above Roberts and Garfield. You noted that he would be the best defensive prospect if considered him a prospect. And he has shown more hitting ability at a higher level then either of those two.

 

Also: Fiers has always been an afterthought to most scouts, simply because the guy doesn’t have elite (or even good) stuff, but if “know-how-to-pitchery” was a tool he’d have an 80.

 

Glad to have you on board. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

1. While Gennett did slug .400, his ISO was .106 and most of his slugging came from his BA. Not the kind of thing that scream power projection.

2. The tallest shortstops that I know of are Derek Jeter, who is terrible defensively, and Troy Tulowitzki, who is a freak of nature. Most SSs are on the 5'10" to 6'0" range, so when someone like Yadiel Rivera or Orlando Arcia is 6'2" or 6'0" at a young age, you have to wonder about their ability to play the position long term.

3. I don't think he can hit. Long swing, not much power, and honestly reserve catchers are a dime a dozen. Give me the guys with a chance to be full time catchers any day.

(I'm also really into upside, hence no Kjeldgaard, who has an equally long swing as a corner OFer and isn't going to hit as he moves up the ladder.)

[CheezWizHed]

2) Is there a "mechanical" reason for that? As a player gets taller, his range decreases or he can't get down on balls as easily? Or just a rule of thumb?

It would seem that if YR is an excellent defensive SS right now, adding a couple inches might decrease his SS ability a little, but still end up better than Yunieski... (ok, maybe that wasn't the best example, but...)

 

3) Since you have seen MM's swing, I'm wondering if there have been some adjustments since he reached AA? He could barely crack .600 OPS at Brevard and below. But then in 2010, he hit around .725 combined in AA and AAA and .809 last year in AA and AAA. I can't imagine his swing in 2010-11 is the same as prior. He is doing something better.

 

I've got to think his chances at being the next Mike Matheny are decent.

[TooLiveBrew]

The tallest shortstops that I know of are Derek Jeter, who is terrible defensively, and Troy Tulowitzki, who is a freak of nature.

 

Alex Rodriguez qualified for freak of nature in his younger years, too. I think if you have a taller guy at SS, he has to be athletic & quick enough to cover as much ground as the Furcals of the world (or thereabouts). Those guys just tend to be rare.

 

Saying that a guy will get too tall for shortstop always seems like a nice way of saying he's going to put on too much weight & not be quick enough anymore to handle the position. Doesn't always mean a guy gets fat, but I bet someone like an Aramis Ramirez played in a Latin American league or came to the states as a shortstop. Hanley Ramirez is another good example of a guy getting big enough that maybe he's not a good fit at SS anymore.

[jjkoestler]

Thanks for sharing, RSB. Very well done.

 

Why do you have Bradley & Jungmann above Thornburg? Just curious.

[ramssuperbowl99]

2) Is there a "mechanical" reason for that? As a player gets taller, his range decreases or he can't get down on balls as easily? Or just a rule of thumb?

It would seem that if YR is an excellent defensive SS right now, adding a couple inches might decrease his SS ability a little, but still end up better than Yunieski... (ok, maybe that wasn't the best example, but...)

 

3) Since you have seen MM's swing, I'm wondering if there have been some adjustments since he reached AA? He could barely crack .600 OPS at Brevard and below. But then in 2010, he hit around .725 combined in AA and AAA and .809 last year in AA and AAA. I can't imagine his swing in 2010-11 is the same as prior. He is doing something better.

 

I've got to think his chances at being the next Mike Matheny are decent.

2. It mostly just has to do with the fact that taller people weigh more and, in general, you sacrifice the quick lateral movement a SS needs for the power that comes from an extra inch or two in your frame. It's not even really about being "fat", as plenty of guys are too big for the position and ripped. You just don't have the agility to get to grounders that shorter players do.

It's the same reason NFL corners tend to be shorter, if that helps.

3. I didn't see him at A+, I saw him at AAA so I can't speak to any adjustments he made. That said, his pitch recognition is fine, but, and this might sound blunt, he just can't hit. He doesn't have the bat speed. He's not going to hit for power. I don't think he'll make enough solid contact to be anything more than an empty .220-.240 hitter. Even with his great defense, that's pretty much just a backup catcher, which are a dime a dozen. That's why I'd take a young guy with upside for a more prominent role over him, and that's why he's not on the list.

As for the two first rounders above Thornburg, it's because Thornburg is short, has violence in his delivery and was overworked to hell in college. I think he's a huge injury risk, and if I told you to list the aces that are Thornburg's height and weight, you'd name Tim Lincecum. That comparison is about as valid as the Dustin Pedroia - Scooter Gennett (read: not at all). Thornburg won't be able to pitch 200 IP a year in the big leagues for an extended period of time, whereas a guy like Jed Bradley or Taylor Jungmann has the frame to be a workhorse. Further, the main reason someone would rank Thornburg ahead of Bradley or Jungmann is that he's had success already and is closer to the majors. That said, I'd expect Bradley and Jungmann to debut for High A and move quickly, so that's not as big of a gap as you might think.

Ultimately for me, upside wins out. Thornburg might be a mid rotation starter who is hurt a bunch and a good pitcher when he's healthy. Bradley might be an ace. Jungmann might be a consistent, 200 IP workhorse #3/#2.

[DHonks]

Thornburg was overworked in college? I thought he didn't start til his last year because he was an outfielder/closer?

 

And I'm still curious where you heard that Cody Scarpetta had Tommy John surgery. I've still never seen that anywhere except in your list.

 

Besides that, I loved what you did.

[colbyjack]

Not to criticize the efforts, as it's clear you put a lot of time into that list, but Thornburg pitched just over 160 innings collectively at Charleston Southern. As DHonks noted, he was used in an expanded role prior to his junior year. Even then, he threw 78 innings. For reference, Jungmann threw 140+ his junior year, as you noted.

 

In the 2010 draft the Brewers took a trio of college arms early whose future role was somewhat in question, including Jimmy Nelson and Matt Miller. Austin Ross could even be thrown into that conversation, and they continued that trend this past year with Tommy Toledo as a similar example. I don't get too hung up with size, as there are plenty of shorter righties that have enjoyed success that don't have traditional, picture-perfect mechanics (Roy Oswalt comes to mind, not to slap another unfair comp on an unconventional prospect), and the limited times I've seen Thornburg I've been really impressed.

 

I also don't recall hearing Scarpetta having TJ surgery. Didn't he tear a tendon in his finger (tendon sheath?) or something like that that caused the Brewers to void the initial deal he signed?

 

And Jungmann was 88-93 almost all of last spring.

[colbyjack]

I forgot to mention 2 things about size:

 

I enjoyed your assessment of the size of shortstops, as it always seems to be that if a SS is taller than the 5-11 to 6-1 range that player is frequently pegged as a 3B, while a player shorter than that range is pegged for 2B.

 

For pitchers, given my comments above in relation to the pitchers taken in the 2010 draft, it's been well documented that Bruce Seid and Gord Ash have expressed an organizational interest in pitchers that are larger given some of the research they have done. Despite that research, they still took Thornburg, who looks to be the best player from that draft.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Not to criticize the efforts, as it's clear you put a lot of time into that list, but Thornburg pitched just over 160 innings collectively at Charleston Southern. As DHonks noted, he was used in an expanded role prior to his junior year. Even then, he threw 78 innings. For reference, Jungmann threw 140+ his junior year, as you noted.

 

In the 2010 draft the Brewers took a trio of college arms early whose future role was somewhat in question, including Jimmy Nelson and Matt Miller. Austin Ross could even be thrown into that conversation, and they continued that trend this past year with Tommy Toledo as a similar example. I don't get too hung up with size, as there are plenty of shorter righties that have enjoyed success that don't have traditional, picture-perfect mechanics (Roy Oswalt comes to mind, not to slap another unfair comp on an unconventional prospect), and the limited times I've seen Thornburg I've been really impressed.

 

I also don't recall hearing Scarpetta having TJ surgery. Didn't he tear a tendon in his finger (tendon sheath?) or something like that that caused the Brewers to void the initial deal he signed?

 

And Jungmann was 88-93 almost all of last spring.

As for Thornburg's innings, I don't think IP is a great way to evaluate pitchers' workload - it's more of an approximation that we have to use since better data isn't always available. Thornburg threw several outings in excess of 130 pitches as his season wound down, and often pitched on short rest. That can be far more damaging than throwing 30 more IP spread throughout the season. Further, the Brewers' handling of TT after he signed was evidence they clearly thought he was overworked. He pitched sparingly on very strict pitch counts. And while Roy Oswalt and Tim Lincecum come to mind, they are really the only workhorses I know that are TT's size. In general, small size like that tends to limit the player based on the sheer physics of throwing a baseball that hard. I hardly think my opinion on this is controversial.

That said, Thornburg is an impressive prospect who would probably find his way into the Top 150 of overall prospects. He's dominated his level, smoothed out his motion, and demonstrated absolutely outstanding velocity. Further, his mechanics seem to work for him. However, when provided with two players of similar upside, I'm going to take the one who has a more traditional frame. That's really the reason I have Bradley and Jungmann over him. It's certainly close and I wouldn't criticize someone who went with Thornburg as the 2nd best prospect in the system.

As for Scarpetta, you're right. It was Peralta that had TJS and came back from it. Thank you, that's noted.

When I saw Jungmann he was 91-93 with good run. Is it possible that you saw him on a back night or did I just see him amped up?

[TheCrew07]

As for your assessment of Thornburg, I'm not going to defend college or high school coaching, especially in regards to pitchers, it's one of the reasons I prefer high school arms, those young men simply haven't had the opportunity to get abused twice. That being said, a couple of 130 pitch outings for a seldom used arm early in his career while certainly stressful by appearance, may not have been. I've always used the cube for college pitching stastics, but I don't recall the pitches ever being broken down by inning so we knew exactly how many stressful innings he pitched. If he was going 17 pitches for 8 innings he hits that mark, but none of those innings would have been extremely stressful, it's all relative. Furthermore you neglected to mention what an excellent athlete Thornburg is, which besides his rocket arm, is my personal favorite quality. He also flat out competes, if you haven't watched it I recommend you watch the video of him playing the outfield his freshman year. I've seen a ton of players go over the fence in a variety of sports, but I've only seen 1 land on his feet...

 

 

As for Jungmann, I thought I had said everything I had to say about him in the draft forum but I'll quick summarize here. Your write-up reads like what Jonathan Mayo wrote about him for mlb.com, but that's not what I saw. He was working 88-93 on the ESPN gun, which I've been told is 1-2 MPH fast. I also disagree about good life on his FB, he featured the 4 seam the most, and 4 seamers just don't move horizontally much. He didn't locate his 2 seam FB at all, he maybe threw a couple of strikes with it in the 2 games I DVR'd, the game I watched at the bar I wasn't paying close enough attention to him to offer an opinion other than he generally wasn't impressive. He does compete well and I'm not concerned about his velocity because if he fixes that short stride he'll easily pickup more velocity. However, I don't think a compete overhaul of one's lower half is such an easy thing to do, he's likely been pitching with that stride his entire life and muscle memory (instinct) takes 1000s of repetitions to overcome. At a clinic a couple of years ago a strength coach cited a college study which ball parked 12,000 perfect repetitions for the average person to learn a knew instinct. Anyone gifted enough to play professional sports is far above average athletically, and even it's truly only half that number, 6,000 perfect (perfect being the key) repetitions on average, how many will he need? We're still talking about a year or two worth of repetitions to get to the point where he doesn't have to think about it anymore.

 

Finally, I don't see there's any way Jungmann is up in 2012, even if he masters new mechanics over the winter, his secondary stuff is average at best. If it was that easy to learn plus pitches, every professional pitcher would have them. If he comes up with only improved FB command and slightly better velocity than he's shown thus far with the same secondary stuff, he's gonna get rocked. Most hitters are FB hitters anyway, and why would a hitter look for anything other than his FB? The curve he featured in the tourney didn't have much bite at all, college hitters were easily getting a piece of it. MLB hitters will know they can foul that pitch off if they get fooled and kill his FB.

 

I didn't know much about Bradley at all, but I like his video and the reports that have been posted since he started pitching this fall. I'm partial to southpaws anyway becauser there simply aren't enough of us out there.

 

I know many people would like the Brewers to push pitching prospects more, but I'd rather their stuff develops to the point they can get hitters out immediately at the next level, regardless if they were drafted as a HS or College pitcher. Even in the minor leagues teams scout well enough that you'll only fool them once, then you better have more than smoke and mirrors to get people out. Austin Ross should have been a fine case study for that point this season. Assuming Jungmann and Bradley both start out at A, they should both have success because their FBs are good enough to get A hitters out, but that won't necessarily be the case as they progress through the system. I would rather everyone starts out in A ball and earns it at each step, even if they only spend a couple of months in WI they can easily be in AA by the end of that first year or start in AA the following year, just like Thornburg. Let them get a year to adjust to the grind and work on mechanics before we rush them to AA. The Southern League is no joke, even though the home stadium kind of is, I like the career path Thorny is on for top pitching prospects coming out of college.

[colbyjack]

When I saw Jungmann he was 91-93 with good run. Is it possible that you saw him on a back night or did I just see him amped up?

 

I've seen Jungmann pitch at least 8 times in college. And 88-93 compared to 91-93 really isn't that different. He usually peaks at 93 in the early innings, settling into the 90-91 range and then 88-89 in the later innings. That's certainly not uncommon for any pitcher, and he has a good enough repertoire to go along with his command to succeed without a premium fastball.

 

I wrote this story leading up to last year's draft:

 

http://www.perfectgame.or...s/View.aspx?article=5785

 

Yes, he does have good run on his fastball, and while he doesn't have a huge bender, he does a nice job dropping it in for strikes with the ability to pull the string on his changeup. As TheCrew descriptively noted, there are some mechanical tweaks he could make, although I'm not convinced a complete overhaul is needed.

 

And don't take my earlier comments as criticism on Jungmann. I have liked him for quite some time, dating back to high school, but do believe his upside is limited. He's never been a flamethrower, but he could become an effective mid-rotation starter, although as I note in my column as linked above, there are plenty of other pitchers who play bigger than their stuff when you consider the entire package of control, command, changing speeds, etc.

 

I think you have the top 2 guys right in Peralta and Bradley. It's no secret that I'm a huge fan of Bradley. I've seen him at his best 2 or 3 times, and not as great later last spring, and if he gains more consistency he could be a stud.