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Jamey Carroll to unknown? [Latest: Confirmed to Twins, 2yrs/7M]


DHonks

Getting back to Carroll. He's never started more than 111 games in the majors, and many of those are at 2B. He's 5'9" and generously listed at 170 pounds and he'll be 38 next year.

 

He played a lot when Furcal was out, but not at SS. Dee Gordon played most of the time there.

 

He's a Hairston type. Solid player, good AB's, but not an everyday SS. Never has been. Knock Yuni all you want but Yuni has been an everyday player at a key position for a number of years.

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yet Carroll's got the great OBP

 

No one is arguing that. Every argument against Carroll is because of his age (38) and concerns that he will not be able to sustain that OBP at his age and pull a 2011 Counsell. Like JB said, he only played 66 games at SS in 2011, 69 in 2010, and prior to that hadn't played SS since 2007. 38 years old, hasn't played more than 70 games at SS in a season ever in his career... not someone I want to hang my hat on as my everyday SS in 2012.

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Yes, Yuni is durable. I will never doubt that. He has zero range and zero plate discipline, but he could get hit by a train and he'd be back in the starting lineup the next day.

 

I stated in my posts that if we were to sign Carroll, we would need a solid backup, as Carroll's not an everyday player. I thought he may be an option because Carroll and Hariston combined will probably only cost a little more than Barmes. I'd guess the extra year on the contract is a big reason why he chose the Twins. There is risk in giving a multi-year deal to a 38-year-old, and I could understand if Melvin wasn't willing to take that risk.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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When a guy's OBP his high, but literally made up of 88% singles and walks, I don't think that it can be taken at face value. I realize the importance of OBP, but Carroll is a mirage in my view. Last year, he had to have hit the softest .290 in baseball history. Seventeen RBI in over 500 PA, with over 100 of those with RISP. Really? (Yes I know, RBI are meaningless...)
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Not outs are better than outs.

 

Someone who makes less outs has more value than someone who makes more outs. The person who makes less outs is not as valuable as someone similar to him who hits for extra bases.

 

Everything has relative value. Sometimes lineups can really benefit from players who hit a soft .290, especially lineups with power around those players.

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Sometimes lineups can really benefit from players who hit a soft .290, especially lineups with power around those players.

 

I'm not convinced that the Brewers will have a lot of power next year. Take away Fielder and his 38 homers and Betancourt with 13, where do you replace that 51 homers if you sign a guy like Carroll to start at SS, who you can 'pen in' for 0 homers? 51 homers is nearly 30 percent of the teams output from last year.

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Not outs are better than outs.

 

Someone who makes less outs has more value than someone who makes more outs. The person who makes less outs is not as valuable as someone similar to him who hits for extra bases.

 

Everything has relative value. Sometimes lineups can really benefit from players who hit a soft .290, especially lineups with power around those players.

 

 

Whoa, whoa, whoa now. Who came up with the valuation of not outs vs. outs? I personally subscribe to the metric of SGHWAAGG (Scrapper, Gamer, Hard Working, All Around Good Guy) as my metric. There's no going wrong there!

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Sometimes lineups can really benefit from players who hit a soft .290, especially lineups with power around those players.

 

I'm not convinced that the Brewers will have a lot of power next year. Take away Fielder and his 38 homers and Betancourt with 13, where do you replace that 51 homers if you sign a guy like Carroll to start at SS, who you can 'pen in' for 0 homers? 51 homers is nearly 30 percent of the teams output from last year.

Power can often be directly tied to home runs, but when players get on base, doubles can score them as well. A walk or two in there and now a single from a soft .290 hitter gets them in.

Not to mention your scenario has zero accounting for whoever hits at 1st next year.
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Someone who makes less outs has more value than someone who makes more outs.

 

True but people who can score runs without any help is also more valuable than someone who can. one of the tenants of Moneyball is to find undervalued assets. Given the amount of money Carroll got at his age with his assets firmly in the OPB and defense perhaps the pendulum is swinging back to power.

There needs to be a King Thames version of the bible.
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Given the amount of money Carroll got at his age

$3.5M per season is not a lot of money in the majors anymore. It will probably end up being about 1/25th of our total payroll. Sounds like a bargain to me, given the lack of quality SS's on the market. Bring back Hairston and we've got two guys who can split the SS position and also be the backups at 2nd & 3rd (and CF for Hairston if needed) for a pretty reasonable price.

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It is shocking to me that even with a decade of discussion, how underrated OBP is by many, who barely seem to understand it is the measure of not making an out.

I strongly agree with that. OBP is a very important stat and the low OBP guys like Betancourt become a huge detriment in a lineup. You see this day to day if you pay attention. Rally killers like Betancourt becoming a road-block to keeping an inning going at the bottom of the order.

 

One thing I noticed in that road trip to Boston & New York is how many of the Red Sox & Yankees worked the count and made it tough on Brewers pitchers. Getting walks and working the pitch count adds up to more runs as well as getting a starter out of the game after 5 or 6 innings. There were way too many times last year where Brewers like Yuni B or Gomez were swinging at the first pitch

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