Are the Brewers one Year from Rebuilding?

[nate82]

If Lawrie would have went for Greinke, then we'd still have Odorizzi, I have a hard time believing Melvin would have given up our best pitching and hitting prospects in the same trade, and I could have lived with that.

 

If I am remembering everything correctly from last off season thecrew07 Greinke initially killed a deal to Milwaukee before the Marcum trade went down. You can only assume that Lawrie was in the deal that was originally to get Greinke before he was traded for Marcum. There possibly could have been a better deal for the Brewers in terms of trading Lawrie but that is just another assumption. The Brewers were going to lose at least one pitcher in the deal for Greinke no matter what. The Brewers probably keep Odorizzi but lose both Cain and Lawrie and probably one or two of Peralta/Scarpetta/Fiers. Not that big of a loss to lose one or two of those players but still would have had an impact on the Brewers system.

 

I am also not certain the Royals would have seen Lawrie as a viable 2B option. They already have a rather good 3B and 1B in the mix. I don't believe the Royals were going to give up on Gordon so he would have had taken a spot in the OF. Lawrie would probably have been out of a position with the Royals and blocked. I am not sure the Royals would have used him as a DH as they have that covered also.

 

A logical place that Lawrie could have been traded to was the Mariners at the time. I don't really think that would have been realistic though as I don't see the Mariners trading Pineda for Lawrie which would have been one of the better moves Melvin could have done. Another team with a hole would have been the Rangers. The Rangers obviously wouldn't have traded anyone from their current roster to get Lawrie but they probably would have moved a nice piece for him. The Rays would have been another team to explore a trade with but I think at best you are looking at Colome and not Davis as the piece you would be receiving in return. A lot of what ifs and could of's in this situation here.

 

I am still not all that happy with the trade itself but it worked out for now for the Brewers. I would have loved to have gotten a younger pitcher in that trade but it didn't happen. Nothing that can be done about it and it is time to move on.

[endaround]

The Royals balked on moving Greinke when the Brewers approached them early last offseason IIRC. That almost ceratinaly would have involved Lawrie with Lawrie moving to the outfield for the Royals (and if he though the Brewers were blocking him, Lawrie would have loved the Royals). Then Greinke asked to be traded after the deal for Marcum happened.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think your recall on that is correct, endaround. And I definitely remember Melvin making a comment (after the Greinke deal) that the Royals were exclusively looking for up-the-middle prospects, so when the Brewers could offer Escobra & Cain, the Royals were sold.

[paul253]

I'm really concerned with how the season has started out, not only with season ending injuries to two regulars (Narveson and Gamel) but also with seemingly everyone struggling at the same time. Weeks, Morgan, and Ramirez are all struggling and two of them are signed long term. KRod is pitching terribly as well. I realize it's a ways away, but if the Brewers are still hovering around .500 at the all star break and 8 or 9 games behind St Louis and Cincinnati they should really considering trading away a number of guys. The Brewers may have to suck it up with a down year in 2013 but I really believe 2014 can begin a new era. Here's my thinking.

 

As much as I hate to say it, trade Greinke. I have been insistent on getting him resigned, but I think the likelihood of that happening with a bad year in 2012 goes down. I also think deals to other pitchers have driven his price way up. He's gotten the most trade value and should bring back at least 2 high ceiling prospects, especially if they don't require pitching in return. This might be our best shot at getting a legitimate shortstop prospect.

 

Trade Marcum. Hopefully he is pitching well enough to bring a decent return. But it's possible he may walk away without us getting any compensation in return. As with Greinke, they'd probably get more if they don't require pitching in return.

 

Trade KRod. Might not get a lot in return but one mid level prospect is better than nothing

 

Trade Morgan. I wanted to trade him before the season and caught a lot of slack for suggesting it. It's not that we'll get much in return for him. It's more that we have nowhere to play him.

 

Consider trading Weeks. Depending on what you get offered in return. With Gennett coming up, Taylor Green can probably hold down second base for a season. Or you can always sign a vet like Freddy Sanchez or Mike Fontenot.

 

Consider trading Axford. I like him but teams may very well overpay for a cheap, dominant closer. As much as I like him if you can get a prospect with #2 upside or a position player with all-star potential you have to take the deal.

 

Like I said 2013 might be another down year, but you'll still have a nice core with Braun, Ramirez, Hart, Gallardo and Lucroy. Gamel will be back. Aoki will still be here. Schafer will probably be up. Gonzalez could still be around. They could always exercise Wolf's option. Peralta will probably be up. Fiers as well. Still have Estrada. It's not a full blown rebuild that will take 5 years to show signs of life. I just look at what you might get in return for Greinke, Marcum, K-Rod and possibly Weeks or Axford and think it may be too much to pass up.

[MNBrew]

I look at the 11-14 record, the lousy pitching & hitting on record to date (Jeff Friggin' Suppan?!?!?!), & 2 major injuries -- all plenty of reasons to be alarmed, to be sure.

 

On the contrary, it's also highly possible the sky ISN'T falling b/c SO many guys are stuck in season-opening slumps. Enough of them are veteran enough that they'll likely come around.

 

Don't get me wrong: I'm quite concerned. It's easy to think the sky is falling. But knee-jerk reactions can be more damaging than the issues causing the averse reaction in the first place. I think they absolutely have to wait this out. The season's almost 4 weeks old -- ONLY 4 weeks old. There are just over 5 months of season left. Lots can still happen for the better of this team . . . and no, I'm not talking about blowing it up.

[paul253]

But knee-jerk reactions can be more damaging than the issues causing the averse reaction in the first place. I think they absolutely have to wait this out. The season's almost 4 weeks old -- ONLY 4 weeks old.

I'm not suggesting they make these trades now. Notice I said at the all star break if they are down 8 or 9 games and behind two teams. But it's not JUST about the record. With each passing day it seems less and less likely the Brewers can resign Greinke. I don't want to let him walk for two compensation picks. Trading him for two impact bats may help ease the transition from expensive vets to cheaper, talented younger players. Like I said, Greinke may very well be our best shot at getting a decent shortstop.

[3and2Fastball]

l.

Like I said 2013 might be another down year, but you'll still have a nice core with Braun, Ramirez, Hart, Gallardo and Lucroy. Gamel will be back. Aoki will still be here. Schafer will probably be up. Gonzalez could still be around. They could always exercise Wolf's option. Peralta will probably be up. Fiers as well. Still have Estrada. It's not a full blown rebuild that will take 5 years to show signs of life. I just look at what you might get in return for Greinke, Marcum, K-Rod and possibly Weeks or Axford and think it may be too much to pass up.

 

Actually, in 2014 it'd be a "nice core" with Braun, Gallardo & Lucroy. Hart is signed through 2013. Are you advocating extending Hart in a "rebuild"? Ramirez should not be counted on to be top-flight in 2014. Gonzalez would be 37 years old in 2014. I do like some of our prospects in the minors, and I'm not saying I have all the answers, plus of course it really depends on who we get back in these trades but I'm not sure we need to trade away every player outside of Braun & Lucroy & Gallardo

 

Weeks is signed through 2014 with a team option of 2015. Hart is signed through 2013. It might make more sense to trade Hart in a rebuild than Weeks. We have several outfield prospects who could replace Hart. Gennett has potential to hit lots of singles and doubles but we have no-one with the power potential of Weeks at 2B

[monty57]

Paul, I share your feelings, and it's not because of our current record. This offseason I mentioned that the Brewers should have a quick trigger finger to sell if things aren't going their way simply due to the talent we're going to lose when the season's over. We're not there yet, but a slow start and two key cogs getting lost to season-ending injuries has certainly made me believe the possibility we should be "sellers" this season has gone up dramatically.

 

-Trading Morgan seemed to me to be a no-brainer once Braun was exonerated. We should have shopped him then, and we should have shopped him to the Red Sox a couple weeks ago, as he's far more valuable than Byrd. We didn't do it then, but there has to be a team out there right now who could use him and would be willing to give up either a relief pitcher or a corner OF/1B who has a few seasons left of team control.

 

-If we're down in the standings in a month or so, we should start seriously start taking bids for Greinke, Marcum and K-Rod (unless Melvin is sure we're extending one of Greinke or Marcum). We could get some decent talent in return for the three of them, as there are always teams looking for pitching mid-season.

 

-If we can get a SS in one of the pitcher trades above, we could also look at trading Gonzalez so that we aren't vested into paying a lot for him next season.

 

-I would look at trading Hart this season or next offseason. I'd probably hold off another year or so before shopping Weeks, but I wouldn't turn down an offer for Weeks if it blew me away.

 

Again, we're not there yet, but we're a lot closer to "being there" then we were a month ago.

[paul253]

Actually, in 2014 it'd be a "nice core" with Braun, Gallardo & Lucroy. Hart is signed through 2013. Are you advocating extending Hart in a "rebuild"? Ramirez should not be counted on to be top-flight in 2014. Gonzalez would be 37 years old in 2014. I do like some of our prospects in the minors, and I'm not saying I have all the answers, plus of course it really depends on who we get back in these trades but I'm not sure we need to trade away every player outside of Braun & Lucroy & Gallardo

 

I was talking about 2013. You are talking about 2014. What I was getting at is even if we make some trades we won't be horrible next year. Not 1998 type horrible at least. Our core still includes Hart and Ramirez as major parts of it. And I didn't suggest trading every player other than those three. I suggested if the return is good enough you can trade Weeks, Hart or Axford. Not all three. But you're right, of the three Hart probably makes the most sense.

 

The major part of my plan includes trading 4 guys (Marcum, Morgan, KRod, and Greinke) none of who are likely to be back next season anyway. All I am saying is that instead of keeping them and settling for third place and a .500 record, trade them to help improve the future.

[JohnBriggs12]

paul,

 

I think you should scratch Gamel off your list of core players for next year also. Melvin was quoted as saying "At the end of the year, we're still not going to know who's our first basemen". That's not to say Gamel will be gone, but he's not going to be handed a job next year. Next year he'll be approaching 28 and won't have done anything in the big leagues.

 

This year's team isn't a team. It's a collection of individuals. Fielder's loss was more than a big bat out of the lineup (though that loss is huge). He was the heart and soul of this franchise for 6 years. As good a hitter as he's been in his career, nobody could be more polar opposite from Prince than Aramis Ramirez. He's not a bad guy, but he adds nothing in the clubhouse. Braun was set to take over the leadership role, but his own problems, be they self inflicted or the result of a major screw up by MLB and their testing program, have distracted him to the point where he's had to work to focus on doing his job on the field. Morgan in his own unique way can provide a spark but not when he's hitting under .200.

 

The rest of the "core", Hart and Weeks, are by nature complimentary guys.

 

I'm not sure what needs to be done, but there are major changes ahead. This team as it's now constructed may be talented enough to hover near .500. I'm not sure it's capable of much better than that.

[Baldkin]

This year's team isn't a team. It's a collection of individuals. Fielder's loss was more than a big bat out of the lineup (though that loss is huge). He was the heart and soul of this franchise for 6 years. As good a hitter as he's been in his career, nobody could be more polar opposite from Prince than Aramis Ramirez. He's not a bad guy, but he adds nothing in the clubhouse.

 

By all accounts, neither did Prince. The guys who carried weight in the clubhouse were Hawkins, Kotsay and Counsell last year. This lunacy that Prince was some huge emotional leader that kept the team together needs to stop being propagated.