Are the Brewers one Year from Rebuilding?

[Raw Biz]

Were a Ryan Braun suspension away from rebuilding. I think we have to consider putting everyone on the market after this fiasco.

Come on, we don't even know for sure if Braun will be suspended or for how long. Let's wait until we get all the facts.

[paul253]

IF Braun gets suspended then I think we should trade Hart and Marcum. We have replacements for both and could bring back two or three pretty decent prospects for the two of them. You let Green, Gamel, Peralta/Fiers and Gindl play and see what we have in them. Then you try to convince Greinke that 2013 will be different and you make every effort to resign him. If he doesn't buy it, you see what you can get for him at the deadline. Same with KRod. The Brewers payroll is getting too unbalanced with the home grown veterans getting expensive and no home grown players coming up. We still have a really decent core in Gallardo, Braun, Weeks, and Lucroy and won't have to go into full fledged rebuilding mode. But I think you do need to maximize the trade value of guys like Hart and Marcum if you can.

[Hate those Rodents]

Do we have two more seasons or three more seasons of Hart signed up?

[JohnBriggs12]

Were a Ryan Braun suspension away from rebuilding. I think we have to consider putting everyone on the market after this fiasco.

 

Certainly they should be open to listening to offers for guys like Greinke, Marcum, Wolf, Weeks and Hart. All those guys have from some to a lot of value. I'm not sure a complete selloff is necessary but they aren't going anywhere with no Fielder and missing Braun for a third of the season.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Do we have two more seasons or three more seasons of Hart signed up?

He's signed through 2013.

[gregmag]

Were a Ryan Braun suspension away from rebuilding. I think we have to consider putting everyone on the market after this fiasco.

 

Certainly they should be open to listening to offers for guys like Greinke, Marcum, Wolf, Weeks and Hart. All those guys have from some to a lot of value. I'm not sure a complete selloff is necessary but they aren't going anywhere with no Fielder and missing Braun for a third of the season.

Sure they are, because the modest upgrades over the world-historically bad left side of the 2011 infield more than offset the losses of Fielder and Braun:

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/s...ts-brewers-in-good-shape

 

Now of course, there are any number of reasons to think the Brewers won't win 96 games again. For that to happen, a lot of good things came together. You can't reasonably expect Braun, Wolf, and Axford to play as well as they did last year. You can't expect the rotation to be as healthy as it was, or the bullpen to come together as perfectly as it did in the second half. In particular, we need to figure out the 7th inning for next year.

 

OTOH, nobody but Braun and Axford really had a career year. I think Wolf was pitching over his head, but any of the other starting pitchers could as easily be better than last year as worse. Weeks, Hart, Lucroy, and Gomez were very ordinary last year by their own standards. Nyjer . . . who knows? Getting more productive backups than Kotsay and Counsell also shouldn't be a huge challenge.

 

So I'm not saying it will all come together again. But as far as the roster is concerned, I don't see any logical support for the argument that the team right now is worse than last year. To act like we've sunk out of contention range would be a huge mistake.

[monty57]

A lot can happen this offseason, and we'll have a much clearer picture as to the post-2012 Brewers in a month or two. Two things I think are very likely this offseason are that we will make a big effort to extend Greinke, which would give us a solid 1-2 punch for several years, and Melvin will find a SS who will be in place for at least a couple of seasons. If these two things happen, and Gamel and Green play to an acceptable level, then we will simply need to focus on pitching next offseason. Melvin has had more success in trades than in FAs in regards to pitching, so in addition to extending Greinke, I think Melvin will try to acquire one SP in a trade (probably for Hart and/or prospects next offseason or by "selling" Wolf/Marcum/Hart mid-season) and will rely on the legions of pitchers we've selected in the past few drafts to fill out the rotation going forward.

 

I said this on Nov 11, and this offseason has taken turns I wouldn't have guessed. We did get a SS, but only for a season plus an option, and we haven't extended Greinke.

 

We did spend a lot of money on a 3B for three years, which will block Green. I think this will help us win this season, but will have a big effect on our team's future. Now, we have four players (Braun, Weeks, Yo, Ramirez) who will make $48.5MM in 2014. If we extend Greinke, we'll have around $65MM locked up in five players. Plus, Axford, Lucroy and I believe Gamel will be in arby, and if Narveson is still around he'd be in his final arby year. It is also likely that we will sign Aoki, and that would be at least a 3-year deal, so he'll be on the books for a few million in 2014. That would put us into the upper $70's for our 1B, 2B, 3B, C, LF, CF, closer and 2 SP. Even if we have a $100MM payroll in a couple years, that would leave around $20MM for SS, RF, 3 SP, an entire bullpen except closer and our whole bench.

 

K-Rod forced us to back-load Ramirez's contract, and at $16MM in 2014, he will be pretty much untradeable, so we really have to hope for our young pitchers to come through, not only to fill out the rotation, but also to comprise the majority of our bullpen. If we have to start throwing $10MM deals to SP or $5MM deals to relievers, we won't be able to cut it. Melvin's moves this offseason have shown me two things. First, he still thinks we have a good shot at winning the division this year. Second, he has faith in the pitching we have coming up through the ranks.

 

That said, I still think he will be quick to sell this season if we aren't leading the division. We could do a very quick "rebuild" if we were to trade Greinke, Marcum, Wolf, Morgan and possibly Hart mid-season.

[TheCrew07]

Monty I just want to say that I really like your quote.

[igor67]

I figured this year would be pretty unspectacular last offseason. Yet here we are not the clear cut favorites, but at the worst it's a dead heat between us, the Reds, and St. Louis for winning the division. The Cards without Pujols have a rather old core of stars, and the Reds seem to be burning their farm pretty fast for modest improvement. The Cubs are at least a couple of years from relevance. With the combination of moves we can be a good competitive team in this division for quite awhile. It may not work out, but this team is not in a clear cut predictable place. Offseason to offseason is the only way to think about the future for right now. All it would take for the team to take on a very positive long term vibe would be for a couple of our starter prospects to put in some dominating AA and AAA performances this year.

[jmeks23]

I still don't get why everyone is discounting the Brewers (at least nationally). The Cardinals have done nothing to improve, and adding Wainwright back isn't going to make them win 96 instead of 90. If you doubt that, then see 2010 when they had Carpenter and Wainwright and won 88 games. They honestly were not even a better team than the Brewers this past year, BUT they were the hottest team in the postseason, and that's really all that matters in October.

 

As far as the Brewers go, losing Fielder and possibly Braun will definitely hurt, but you also get a more solidified rotation to start those 50 games before Braun is back. The team is also better defensively by default because of Gonzalez, Ramirez, and Gamel. Yes, Gamel and Ramirez are not light years better than McGehee and Fielder, but they are both far more athletic and that by default should be better off. If Gamel can stop line drives to the right side, he's an immediate improvement IMO.

 

The offense should be more balanced when Braun is back, and although lacking the big-time power of Prince, it should be made up with a combo of Ramirez, Gamel, and even Gonzalez to a point.

 

 

As far as the Reds go, they improved their pitching staff for sure, but I'm still not sure Chapman will be any good, and then you have a Latos (a FB pitcher) in Great American Smallpark instead of Petco. To me, he's going to look similar to Garza did this past year. Struggle to adjust to the far smaller ballparks. Cueto looks to be solid, then you have 2 other big question marks. They don't even have a closer at all, and people are saying they're better than the Brewers are right now with 2 closers.

 

Lack of media love for the Crew isn't surprising, but I hate this 'what have you done for me lately' attitude society has right now. Because the Crew hasn't had a blockbuster deal, they're the 3rd best team in the division.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd say that the Brewers look to be a mid 80 win team as it stands (assuming Braun suspension, etc.).

 

Right now, I think the Reds are the team to beat, with the Brewers a tick behind. Maybe it's just me, but I'm pretty underwhelmed by the Beltran to S.L. stuff. Wainwright may be back, but guys in their first year back from TJ don't generally set the world on fire. The rest of that staff doesn't look that great to me and their lineup is getting pretty long in the tooth.

[TooLiveBrew]

Marcum basically pitched to his career norms in his first season back from TJ surgery. I don't know if that was just a big aberration, but I think the Cards getting Wainwright back is absolutely huge. I don't see how it can be downplayed.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I see the Brewers winning 92 games next season with a Ryan Braun suspension. The Brewers in my opinion did a good job trying to replace Fielder by shoring up the infield defense and by adding ARam's bat who I think will have a career year next season, because of playing at Miller Park. The Brewers bullpen is just sick with Varus, KRod and Axford in the 7-9 innings. That doesn't even include pitchers like Manzanilo, Braddock, Parra etc.. The Brewers have a great starting 5 in the rotation in Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Wolf, Narveson and good depth in Peralta, Fiers, Rivas.

 

The Brewers won 96 games last season and could have won even more if Weeks wasn't injured, and if the Brewers got more production out of 3B. The Brewers are going to be very good this coming season.

[paul253]

"I see the Brewers winning 92 games next season with a Ryan Braun

suspension. The Brewers in my opinion did a good job trying to replace

Fielder by shoring up the infield defense and by adding ARam's bat who I

think will have a career year next season, because of playing at Miller

Park. The Brewers bullpen is just sick with Varus, KRod and Axford in

the 7-9 innings. That doesn't even include pitchers like Manzanilo,

Braddock, Parra etc.. The Brewers have a great starting 5 in the

rotation in Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Wolf, Narveson and good depth in

Peralta, Fiers, Rivas.

The Brewers won 96 games last season and could have won even more if

Weeks wasn't injured, and if the Brewers got more production out of 3B.

The Brewers are going to be very good this coming season."

 

I don't mean this in a mean way, but are you serious? They lose their best power hitting and highest OBP guy in Fielder and may lose their best overall hitter in Braun for almost a third of the season and you only see a 4 game drop off? Manzanillo has had one good year in the minors. He'll start in AA. And who knows what he'll do with this injury. Braddock was a huge disappointment last season. Parra didn't even pitch. And Rivas....he was terrible in AAA last year. I wouldn't count on him to do much of anything in the majors. I'll be happy with 85-88 wins.

[jjfanec]

Marcum basically pitched to his career norms in his first season back from TJ surgery. I don't know if that was just a big aberration, but I think the Cards getting Wainwright back is absolutely huge. I don't see how it can be downplayed.

Wainwright will be big but the loses of Edwin Jackson and Dotel will hurt as well. People act like it just Pujols who is leaving but these two played valuable roles down the stretch. Also the loss of LaRussa will probably be felt as well (though I dont know how many wins it really will cost).

So what is better Pujols, E. Jackson, Dotel or Beltran, Wainwright, and Romero? I think the second group has far more questions with injury concerns for both Beltran and Wainwright. People here were acting like Ramirez was a bad signing because he is hurt a lot. Well we signed him for one more year than Beltran and he has been healthier than Beltran.

If Braun is suspended I think the Cards and Reds might have a slight edge over us. If Braun plays those first 50 games I think the Crew are the favorites. We have a couple question marks in the lineup but not many. Our rotation looks really solid again and the back end of the bullpen is set

[TooLiveBrew]

In response to paul's last post, I'm not sure if you're aware just HOW much bigger the gulf in quality is from mcgehee to ramirez than fielder to gamel. I mean, maybe you are, but that's where the difference is from you projecting the brewers to be about 10 wins worse than 2011. There's an incredibly slim chance that they'd lose that many more games next season, & it wouldn't be due to losing fielder & braun being suspended... it,d be more likely due to variance/ luck &injuries

[PrinceFielderx1]

I don't mean this in a mean way, but are you serious? They lose their best power hitting and highest OBP guy in Fielder and may lose their best overall hitter in Braun for almost a third of the season and you only see a 4 game drop off? Manzanillo has had one good year in the minors. He'll start in AA. And who knows what he'll do with this injury. Braddock was a huge disappointment last season. Parra didn't even pitch. And Rivas....he was terrible in AAA last year. I wouldn't count on him to do much of anything in the majors. I'll be happy with 85-88 wins.

I'm very serious. The Brewers could have easily won 100 games last season if Weeks and Greinke didn't go down with injury's, if Mcgehee wasn't in a huge slump for most if not all of last season, if Saito would have been healthy and didn't miss significant playing time. The Brewers also had a weak bench for most of last season. Kotsay and Hairston were good, but they struggled in the beginning of the season. Counsel was bad offensively. Despite these major problems they still won 96 games. The Brewers also didn't have K-Rod for a couple months of the season who is just lights out as a late inning reliever.

 

As for Braddock, Parra, Rivas and Manzanillo the potential is there for them to contribute to the big league ball club if healthy. They will all (except maybe Rivas) be in the discussion for the Brewers bullpen come Spring Training. Parra was very good in September in the bullpen a couple years ago. Braddock has good stuff, but his velocity was down and struggled with a sleep disorder. Manzanillo had an unfortunate accident, but it should be interesting to see how he recovers from it. Peralta and Fires moved ahead of Rivas in terms of likely to be promoted in case of injury to one of the starting 5.

 

The Brewers added ARam and Gonzalez to shore up the left side of the infield and will place Gamel at 1B. By adding those 3 players to the infield the Brewers would have upgraded 2 positions offensively and defensively (3B and SS), and 1B defensively. Gamel has high upside offensively and it will be interesting to see what he can do when given a decent amount of playing time. The Brewers are going to have something that they really haven't had in a very long time which is Range on defense. The Brewers starting pitchers must be very happy about this right now, because they will benefit greatly. The Brewers had to employ many strategic shifts last season to make up for the lack of Range from the players. This season they probably wont have to do that as much.

 

The Brewers pitching and defense will keep them in many ball games next season, and the Brewers still have an offense outside of Fielder and Braun.

 

I can see 92 wins.

[monty57]

The Brewers added ARam and Gonzalez to shore up the left side of the infield and will place Gamel at 1B. By adding those 3 players to the infield the Brewers would have upgraded 2 positions offensively and defensively (3B and SS), and 1B defensively. Gamel has high upside offensively and it will be interesting to see what he can do when given a decent amount of playing time.

 

I always hope Brewers players do well, but I'll really be pulling for Gamel to succeed this season. Probably as much as I rooted for Rodgers to succeed when Favre left.

 

-Gamel is a former top prospect who has been completely dismissed by almost everyone.

-Gamel succeeding will help the Brewers win in 2012

-Gamel would be a nice, cheap player for several years when we'll really need some pre-arby guys to contribute

-Gamel succeeding may remind the Brewers that rookies can play and should be given opportunities

[paul253]

Didn't know where to add this, but I've read that NYY, Boston, Detroit, and Toronto are all looking at Matt Garza. I know he's under contract 2 years and is a different type pitcher, but any chance any of those teams offers us a decent return for Marcum or Wolf?

[nate82]

Didn't know where to add this, but I've read that NYY, Boston, Detroit, and Toronto are all looking at Matt Garza. I know he's under contract 2 years and is a different type pitcher, but any chance any of those teams offers us a decent return for Marcum or Wolf?

For Marcum yes for Wolf you would be lucky to get Burnett. You are not getting a top notch prospect for Marcum and there is about a zero percent chance of anyone giving up a prospect for Wolf.

[TooLiveBrew]

To flip the concept of this thread, the Brewers are one Greinke extension away from being perennial contenders.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not so sure that's true my friend, all it takes 1 injury and you're on the hook for a contract you can't move and can't get out of. I know he hasn't suffered a major injury yet but all pitchers do at some point.

 

The years and money would have to be perfect for the Brewers for me to jump on the resigning Greinke bandwagon. We're talking like 4 years and less than $14 mil per year, no way do I pay him 18 or 19 per hoping he repeats his CY season.

 

I still think the Ramirez contract is horrible, I don't want the potential for another clunker contract on top that one.

[MNBrew]

To flip the concept of this thread, the Brewers are one Greinke extension away from being perennial contenders.

I totally agree. You need 2 ace-types and a very strong Top 3 starters. Call it the Atlanta Braves model, 1991-2004: 3 Rotation studs & your cornerstone position players, with the other spots gradually evolving as the years go by. With Gallardo & Greinke, there are your 2 ace-types. Braun & Weeks & Ramirez (for better or for worse, in the case of the latter) are your proven All-Star position players.

[monty57]

Starting pitching is always needed at the trade deadline, and we could possibly have three good starters to trade in Greinke, Marcum and Wolf. I expect that we will extend one of Greinke or Marcum, but trading two of these players would bring us back quite a bit in prospects for next year and beyond. With Hart's ability and contract, he would be a huge trading chip at the deadline as well. We'd also have a smaller chip in Morgan, who is replaceable with Schafer, who could probably bring us a lower-level prospect.

 

I'd love to win the division again, and we have a team that is capable of doing just that. However, St Louis and Cincy also have good teams, and if we're behind them, we could do a very quick mid-season rebuild which would make us a lot stronger for 2013 and beyond. We'd still have a strong core of players, and we could add some good, young talent to help supplement that core going forward. I'd much rather see us sell and get good prospects than see us miss out on the playoffs and watch Greinke, Marcum and Wolf walk away.

[paul253]

I know he hasn't suffered a major injury yet but all pitchers do at some point.

 

What? Every pitcher suffers a major injury at some point? That's news to me.

I still think the Ramirez contract is horrible, I don't want the potential for another clunker contract on top that one.

 

I agree with this. I viewed this signing as a short-sighted panic signing by the Brewers who felt as though they had to replace Fielder. Ramirez is a good player and will help the team, but with money as tight as it is and with a viable home grown option ready to at least be given a shot, I think it was a huge mistake. I think Milwaukee should have made a better play for Hairston and gone with Hairston and Green at third base, saving yourself about $25-30 million over 3 years.

 

Regarding Greinke though, I think any near future success depends almost entirely on resigning him. I'm high on Peralta. I think Thornburg can be a solid back end of the rotation guy. And I still have (unrealisitc I'm sure) hopes for Mark Rogers. But they are all unproven. Greinke and Gallardo are both guys you can throw out there against most any team on most any night and feel good about your chances. Having two guys like that is huge and helps takes pressure off of guys like Peralta. I think after the year you offer Marcum that one year deal to get picks and hope he doesn't accept it because the Brewers still have a very long way to go to get their system where it needs to be.

 

I've read that Braun's suspension is unlikely to be overturned so if the Brewers are, I'd say 8+ games out of it by the deadline (depending on how they are playing), I'd consider trading all of the following players: Hart, Marcum, Wolf, Morgan, and KRod plus any other bullpen player there may be a market for.