Are the Brewers one Year from Rebuilding?

[jakesdaddio]

I know the Brewers have said they want to be consistantly in the hunt for the playoffs, but after 2012, Marcum and Greinke will likely be gone, we will lose Fielder this year...we need help already at 3rd, SS, 1B, and CF. If the Crew doesn't win the World Series in 2012, would the Brewers trade everyone BUT Braun for youth and rebuild much like the Marlins have done several times in their history? I'm not advocating this strategy, I'm just wondering if that's going to have to happen.

[bucksman4]

I don't think you have to rebuild if you make the right trades and sign the right players in free agency. I think the Brewers will do the following: make a few moves this off-season to keep with the "win now" mentality for 2012. If, what I believe will happen, the Cardinals bust away with the divisional lead early on and the Brewers come out of the gate scuffling, I could see the direction change and the Brewers could look to trade Marcum/Greinke (if neither are extended prior to the season) at the deadline. The key is Milwaukee cannot continue to do what they did with Prince in 2011, which is keep your players until they hit FA and the best you receive is 2 draft picks for him. If you hope to stay truly competitive, you must maximize their value and use your assets to your organization's advantage.

[monty57]

jakesdaddio, I seem to have more faith than you in some of our players. If given the opportunity, Gamel and Green should be able to play at an acceptable MLB level. They may not be stars, but they should be average-to-above-average MLB players. We have Morgan and Gomez to cover CF until Schafer is ready, so I don't see any need for help there. Braun, Weeks and Lucroy are here long-term, and Hart is here for two years, although I think he'll be traded next offseason as some of our minor league OFs ought to be ready by then, and Hart could help bring in our true area of need, which is pitching.

 

A lot can happen this offseason, and we'll have a much clearer picture as to the post-2012 Brewers in a month or two. Two things I think are very likely this offseason are that we will make a big effort to extend Greinke, which would give us a solid 1-2 punch for several years, and Melvin will find a SS who will be in place for at least a couple of seasons. If these two things happen, and Gamel and Green play to an acceptable level, then we will simply need to focus on pitching next offseason. Melvin has had more success in trades than in FAs in regards to pitching, so in addition to extending Greinke, I think Melvin will try to acquire one SP in a trade (probably for Hart and/or prospects next offseason or by "selling" Wolf/Marcum/Hart mid-season) and will rely on the legions of pitchers we've selected in the past few drafts to fill out the rotation going forward.

 

I agree with Bucksman that the Brewers will probably have a quicker trigger than in the past to sell if the season isn't going their way, with Marcum, Hart and Wolf topping the list for potential trades. It is also possible that we trade Marcum or Wolf this offseason if the return is good (young SS or SP). This would allow for someone like Peralta to start this year, so we wouldn't have two rookies starting in 2013. Regardless, we are going to have to start relying on some of our minor leaguers to play significant roles at the MLB level. For this season, it will be Gamel and Green. Next year, it will probably be an OF (if Hart is traded) and some pitching. Some will succeed, and we'll probably extend them. Some will fail, and we'll replace them, but I don't see a complete rebuild anywhere in the future.

[NievesNoNO]

I don't think there will be a Marlinesque type sell-off/rebuild. I think it really depends on what happens with Greinke and Marcum this year. If both end up leaving then I think you consider a couple year retool. I agree with Bucks that they need to in most cases get a return on our star players before they leave; the draft picks aren't enough to compensate on a consistent basis. The thing is, they are a very good team right now and have very good players with which to work with if they wanted to start selling off some parts. I think what many of us would do and what the Brewers might do will be much different. IF Greinke and Marcum leave I'd look to move Hart, Weeks, and maybe Gallardo depending on how our young pitchers were developing. I don't see the Brewers basically throwing away a year at the MLB level though with how many fans have been showing up and from a business perspective I couldn't argue. It will definitely be a fun and interesting year to see how everything plays out.

[The Truth]

I believe the Brewers are counting on pitchers Wily Peralta & Tyler Thornburg in 2013 and one or more of Jorge Lopez, Jed Bradley, and Taylor Jungmann in 2014 to greatly help the pitching staff. Gallardo will still be a Brewer during those years.

 

If Wolf, Greinke,& Marcum are all off the books in 2013, the Brewers will certainly have some money to spend. I do think they will try to sign Greinke to an extension.

 

With Braun, Weeks, Lucroy, Morgan/Gomez, Hart, Gallardo plus Gamel & Green all there in 2013, the Brewers will have no need to completely rebuild. Caleb Gindl could end up being a big plus too

 

Wise moves to reload will be needed, of course, but I see no need for a major rebuild

[paul253]

I think with the right moves, good drafts, and a little luck, we'll be fine. I disagree with the assumption that both Marcum and Greinke will be gone. I think Marcum and Wolf will be gone, but I think Milwaukee will pony up for Greinke.

 

As for the right moves: 1) I think you have to trade Marcum for a pitching prospect. NYY desperately needs pitching and they have good pitching prospects. A swap of Marcum for Bentaces or Banuelos would make a lot of sense for Milwaukee. Peralta and the one they get could immediately compete for the #5 spot next year. If the Yankees miss out on Wilson they may be willing to make this deal. What it accomplishes is obviously giving you a talented young pitcher who is under control for 6 years. 2) You need to see what Gamel and Green can do this year. It would be great if they both find success but if they don't you need to know now. 3) Resign Greinke. Needs to be done, period. 4) Find a solution at shortstop. Either by trade or free agent. Reyes would be great. I realize he'd be expensive but he'd be a solution for a few years and would really help the offense. 5) Trade Kottaras for a prospect. Kottaras is probably good enough to be a starter somewhere. We have Lucroy obviously and Maldonado can be the backup. Not sure what you can get for Kottaras but you should be able to get a decent, lower level prospect. 6) Beef up the bullpen. It'd be great if Braddock could contribute but you can't count on him. You need to find a capable 8th inning guy and a lefty who can get other lefties out.

 

These moves, along with the continued progression of Peralta, Thornburg, Schafer, and Gindl and strong years by Bradley, Lopez, and Jungmann could prevent the need for a rebuild.

 

However, let's just say the Brewers do rebuild. This will never happen but they have a ton of trading chips. Marcum could fetch something good. Greinke could as well. Hart could. Weeks. Axford. I highly doubt they'll do it, but IF they do I hope they go all out. You could probably get an all-star team of prospects for those 5 guys.

[Raw Biz]

I don't think Kottaras will net anything significant. I believe he was available at some point last year and nobody grabbed him.

[patrickgpe]

With Hart, Weeks, Braun, and Yo signed to long term deals, I don't think 2013 is going to be a rebuilding year. The brewers are going to have to be smart about bringing players to compliment the vets and figure out who needs to be traded to get pieces in place. When you have arguably the best player in the NL, i don't think they will rebuild though.

[YoungGeezy]

With Hart, Weeks, Braun, and Yo signed to long term deals, I don't think 2013 is going to be a rebuilding year. The brewers are going to have to be smart about bringing players to compliment the vets and figure out who needs to be traded to get pieces in place. When you have arguably the best player in the NL, i don't think they will rebuild though.

 

 

Agreed, u don't lock up Hart, Weeks, Yo, Braun just to throw in the towel and rebuild. Gamel and Green can both be very solid players for us. Rotation will be a concern but we can allows fix that.

[TheCrew07]

I highly doubt Lopez is ready by 2014. I could be wrong, but that's an awfully aggressive career path for a young pitcher, and the Brewers have really been looking after their young arms.

[YoungGeezy]

I highly doubt Lopez is ready by 2014. I could be wrong, but that's an awfully aggressive career path for a young pitcher, and the Brewers have really been looking after their young arms.

 

Lol, His AA ETA is most likely not even until 2015, maybe mid 2014. People are not thinking very logical with maybe the Brewers most raw pitcher in the system. He is not anywhere near the polish of Yovani coming out of high school. He will not break Spring in Appleton and unless he flats out dominates in Helena he will not be promoted (2012). 2013: He will start in Wisconsin, pitch there for a full-season unless he is making what Thornburg did look silly, we will not be promoted. 2014: Start in BC, pitch full-season there unless he is looking like the greatest pitcher in Brewer history. 2015: He makes it to AA and will be sped up if he is performing.

 

It is raw for the Brewers to push a raw young arm fast at the lower levels and if people are expecting them to treat Lopez like Yovani, be ready to be frustrated. He in all likely will have the similar path as Bucci and the other high school arms. If he takes off in AA in 2015, we could see him in in 2016 but more likely in 2017.

[GAME05]

the lack of blue-chippers in the Minors is discouraging, but then i think about the Cardinals and how they can make great teams out of a few superstars and a lot of solid contributors. and the Brewers either already do or have the potential to field competent players at every position but SS right now. and Yo and Braun are legit superstars now. and MA has been spending to an average payroll. it doesn't leave a ton of room for error, but there's definitely a lot of room to stay competitive. and then sometimes there's those players who really surprise and do so much better than expected like Braun and McGehee, or Freel for the Cardinals, and maybe we'll strike gold with one of our AAA guys again.

 

plus last offseason showed you really never know what to expect.

[carniesandrubes]

Definitely. 2011 was the "go for it" year. 2012 will be the "maybe we get lucky cause we're still decent" year. 2013-2014 will be pretty lackluster teams most likely.

[dadofandrew]

As the Twins have shown, any team may be one year away from rebuilding. However, with a nucleus signed and young talent coming up, I doubt it.

[madtowndrunkard]

What we are today will be very different by the end of the 2012 season. So to guess what we'll be in 2 years is really pointless.

 

We do have a corp of players locked up long term. We don't know who we'll sign this year or next. I wouldn't be shocked if we locked up either Marcum or Greinke long term. Knowing our owner wants to win, I think we'll be competitive as long as we have a solid corp of players. As of right now and the next few years we do. If McGehee rebounds then our team will have a totally different outlook.

 

Really I think we are rebuilding every year. If we do nothing to address our defensive and offensive issues this off season then I suspect we'll be sellers at the trade deadline. It will all depend on the sucess we have in 2012. I have a hard time believing we'll rip apart the team if we're a playoff team in 2012. I can't believe we'll start this season with only 1 SP signed past 2012. That's not going to happen.

[monty57]

I can't believe we'll start this season with only 1 SP signed past 2012.

 

To be fair, we have Yo and Narveson signed past 2012, and an option on Wolf for 2013. But I do agree with your premise. I highly doubt we will let most of our rotation walk in the same offseason. We'll extend and/or trade some of them before that happens.

 

Honestly, this would be easier if we thought we were going to be bad this season, as we have a number of guys who could bring back a lot in trade. Of course, that's probably why we're not going to stink this year.

[endaround]

Yes if Greinke and/or Marcum can't be extended you likely have to trade Hart. And then the dominoes start to fall. Morgan gets moved and likely Gomez. You think seriously about trading the 30 year old Weeks. And suddenly you're seriously rebuilding.

[MNBrew]

Narveson isn't signed past 2012. However, he's got 4 more years of team control since he didn't qualify for Super-Two status.

[endaround]

Narveson isn't signed past 2012. However, he's got 4 more years of team control since he didn't qualify for Super-Two status.

Super two has no effect on the free agency date, just when arbitration starts.

[MNBrew]

Narveson isn't signed past 2012. However, he's got 4 more years of team control since he didn't qualify for Super-Two status.

Super two has no effect on the free agency date, just when arbitration starts.

Got a step ahead & therefore applied an unnecessary principle with the math. Point is, in 3 years, he still won't have accumulated the 6 full years necessary for free agency, thus 4 more years of team control.

[JohnBriggs12]

Yes if Greinke and/or Marcum can't be extended you likely have to trade Hart. And then the dominoes start to fall. Morgan gets moved and likely Gomez. You think seriously about trading the 30 year old Weeks. And suddenly you're seriously rebuilding.

Greinke, Marcum and Wolf leaving is $30 million off the books. That puts them in a very strong position to go after guys like Matt Cain or John Danks (either of whom I'd prefer over Greinke) with Gallardo at the top of the rotation.

[JohnBriggs12]

Yes if Greinke and/or Marcum can't be extended you likely have to trade Hart. And then the dominoes start to fall. Morgan gets moved and likely Gomez. You think seriously about trading the 30 year old Weeks. And suddenly you're seriously rebuilding.

 

Have to trade Hart? Before you do that there's this July 31st trading deadline. Assuming they are out of it, which isn't a given, but very possible, they have plenty of chips that can be cashed in: Greinke, Wolf, Marcum, Morgan. I wouldn't include Hart. They'd get a decent haul out of those deals and go into the winter with plenty of salary room to be a player for a guy like Matt Cain or John Danks and be able to go into 2013 with a competitive team.

 

They could trade Weeks or Hart at any time, but I don't think that's necessarily a move that represents rebuilding. In another year, Gennett might be ready to take over 2B and Weeks' value would still be pretty high. He might bring back a major league player at another position.

[endaround]

Yes if Greinke and Marcum aren't there for 2013 the chances of getting either Danks or Cain is miniscule even if they reach free agency which is far from assured. Then you have a .500 team with Hart in his last year. So you trade Hart and now you are below .500 and you move your 32 year old CFer and now you los another 2 wins. Then you look around and noticed your 2B is over 30 and only signed for 2 years while making decent money to play for a a sub .500 team. and the more big pieces you move the shorter rebuilding has to be. you wait until the deadline and you'll get junk

[monty57]

There are so many variables at work that we can only guess as to what the roster will look like in 2013. Really, the chance of any potential option we look at now occuring two years from now is miniscule, but we're all just speculating here. I do have some faith in Melvin, that he's at least cognizant of when we have contracts expiring and isn't going to turn a blind eye and say "boy, I hope things work out okay."

 

First, we have a lot of pitchers coming up through the ranks, and some of them will work out to become MLB starters over the coming years. Thankfully, that will get us to the point that we don't need to keep signing or trading for our entire MLB rotation.

 

I would be surprised if he doesn't at least try to extend Greinke, which would give us two "top of the rotation" starters for the next several years, plus Narveson if we want to keep starting him over our other options. Just extending Greinke would probably allow for us to work in our rookies without the need to make a big trade or FA acquisition for another starter, but that option exists if the rookies don't work out. If Greinke doesn't extend, then I'd guess at least one of Wolf, Greinke or Marcum will be traded this offseason for near-MLB-ready prospects, starting a rookie as our #5, along we a quick trigger on trading the other two mid-season. I'm hopeful for a playoff run this year, but am realistic enough to understand that losing Fielder and our bullpen arms will hurt us, so it is possible we are sellers mid-season. I'd rather take a probable small downgrade this season if it means a probable big upgrade in the future.

 

As Briggs has stated, even if we are in the playoff hunt and don't trade away any of our starters, we would have loads of money coming off the books at season end. Lots of free cash leads to lots of options to upgrade the team. We could try the FA market, but it also opens the option to pick up salary in a trade. Oftentimes, you can get vets for almost nothing in terms of talent going back, as long as you are willing to pick up the contract. There are a lot of options available, but I don't think blowing up the team is a likely one... they've worked to hard to build up their revenue stream to take the risk of losing it all in one fell swoop.

[Bnowell4evr]

Were a Ryan Braun suspension away from rebuilding. I think we have to consider putting everyone on the market after this fiasco.