Jim Breen's Ideal Offseason

[cvollbrecht]

http://www.jsonline.mobi/...one&dc=smart&c=y

 

Offseasons with Doug Melvin at the helm can often be unpredictable, and this winter should prove no different.

 

The Brewers are in position to contend for an NL Central pennant once again in 2012. Melvin has some obvious holes to fill -- most notably shortstop and first base -- and it will likely be a mixture of trades and free agent signings that do so.

 

Over the past few weeks, I have often been asked what I would do if I were the GM of the Milwaukee Brewers. Would I re-sign Prince Fielder? Would I seriously pursue Jose Reyes? Would I trade some pitching depth to acquire infield help?

 

Instead of answering those questions one at a time, I thought I would simply outline my ideal offseason moves and acquisitions. Of course, this would take place in a bubble without any competition for services on the FA or trade market, but this at least gives a benchmark for what I believe would be wise for the organization.

 

 

Trades:

 

(1) Trade LHP Chris Narveson to Florida for 1B Logan Morrison.

 

 

(2) Trade 3B Casey McGehee, RHP Tyler Thornburg, and OF Caleb Gindl to San Diego for 3B Chase Headley.

 

 

(3) Trade C George Kottaras to Unknown Team for Low-A Pitcher

 

 

Free Agent Signings:

 

(4) Sign SS Rafael Furcal to one-year deal with vesting option for 2013 based upon games played.

 

 

(5) Sign INF Jerry Hairston to one-year deal.

 

 

(6) Sign RHP Takashi Saito to one-year deal.

 

 

(7) Sign RHP Kerry Wood to two-year deal.

 

 

(8) Sign OF Scott Hairston to one-year deal.

 

 

Explanations:

 

(1) Morrison is a talented, young hitter who may have worn out his welcome in Florida this season with his eccentric personality. He was sent down to Triple-A mid-season by the organization to make a statement, and even in a down season, he still hit .247/.330/.468 with a .344 wOBA. First base could conceivably be locked up for the next handful of seasons.

 

Narveson is a steep price to pay for Morrison, as he is a left-handed pitcher with four more years of team control, but the Marlins are seeking big-league ready pitching to round out their rotation.

 

May take Narveson and a mid-level prospect -- such as Dan Merklinger -- to get this deal done.

 

 

(2) Headley is a solid-fielding third baseman with good on-base skills. His power production has been extremely limited by PETCO, but he has hit .303/.364/.441 away from home. That suggests his numbers could skyrocket in a better stadium and division.

 

Of course, the 27-year-old will not come cheaply. He has two years of team control remaining on his contract and was an above-average third baseman in the NL this season. McGehee could give them a third baseman with similar cost-control, while acquiring a high-upside arm in Tyler Thornburg -- a flyball pitcher who could ultimately thrive in San Diego -- and an underrated corner outfield (more likely 4th OF) prospect in Caleb Gindl.

 

 

(3) With Martin Maldonado proving in 2011 that he has enough of a bat to pair with his plus-defense, George Kottaras does not have much of a place in Milwaukee any longer. His defensive skills are sub-par, and he does not play enough to maximize his power potential at the plate.

 

Kottaras is also a Super Two player, meaning he will get four years of arbitration, rather than the standard three years. Though his salary will not cripple the organization by any stretch of the imagination, it is yet another reason as to why he has worn out his welcome with the Brewers.

 

 

(4) This offseason’s lottery ticket at shortstop. After a disappointing and injury-riddled season that saw him hit .231/.298/.348, Furcal should be affordable on a one-year deal to re-establish his value.

 

Do not be fooled by his lackluster season. He is only one year removed from a .366 wOBA in 2010 and suffered from a .240 BABIP in 2011. Furcal is a potential game-changer atop a big league lineup and provides plus-defense from the shortstop position.

 

Of course, Furcal could simply struggle with injuries yet again and prove pedestrian at the plate. The potential reward, though, is simply too great to pass up. He is very likely to re-sign with St. Louis after explicitly stating how much he enjoyed his stint with the Cardinals, but perhaps the Brewers could sweeten the deal with a vesting option for 2013 based upon games played.

 

If healthy, the Brewers would get a guy who compiled +9.9 WAR between 2008-2010 in the difficult NL West.

 

 

(5) As with any risk-laden signing (Furcal), the organization would need to have a Plan B in place. Jerry Hairston can play shortstop in a pinch and made quite the impression while in Milwaukee, even taking over the everyday third baseman role in the postseason.

 

Hairston is simply a versatile veteran who can adequately play every non-pitcher position on the diamond, other than catcher. He hit .274/.348/.379 with the Brewers and established himself as a leader in the clubhouse, despite only playing 45 games with the club.

 

Consider him your Craig Counsell replacement for 2012 … just with more talent at the plate.

 

 

(6) The club has outwardly expressed an interest in retaining Saito for the 2012 season, after he posted a 2.03 ERA in 30 appearances. Durability will always be an issue for Saito, but the right-hander is very effective when healthy and on the mound. His slider needs a bit more work for the 2013 season -- but as long as the club does not rely upon him to be the primary set-up man, he should thrive once again.

 

 

(7) The one-two punch of K-Rod and Axford was so successful that I imagine Melvin and Roenicke plan on recreating that success next year. Plenty of closers exist on the free agent market this winter, but Kerry Wood should have a lower price tag and the same high-strikeout stuff.

 

Wood did have a mediocre 3.35 ERA, but possessed a strikeout rate of 10.06 K/9 and has begun to show consistency out of the bullpen. While not an awe-inspiring move, it should plug the set-up man problem without breaking the bank.

 

 

(8) This is more than signing Scott Hairston because of his brother, Jerry Hairston. Scott fills the veteran outfielder position on the bench and also provides some much-needed pop. He has a career .193 ISO and has hit double-digit home runs in four of the past five seasons.

 

 

This club provides some long-term solutions to current problem areas, while not sacrificing the current effectiveness of the club. The pitching staff certainly loses some certainty without Narveson, but between Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, and Wily Peralta, the Brewers should still have a Top 5 starting rotation in the National League.

 

The lineup does not have the same star-studded pop without the combination of Braun and Fielder. The overall effectiveness, however, is much more appealing than the 2011 version that featured McGehee and Betancourt throughout the year.

 

 

1) SS Furcal

 

2) CF Morgan

 

3) LF Braun

 

4) RF Hart

 

5) 2B Weeks

 

6) 3B Headley

 

7) 1B Morrison

 

8) C Lucroy

 

9) Pitcher

 

 

Cannot complain.

 

 

The bullpen is the potential sticking point of this group. John Axford was tremendous in 2011, but that repeat performance should not be expected. Wood is not a shutdown guy like K-Rod. Saito is aging.

 

The addition of Kintzler and Parra, though, could also turn this bullpen into a huge strength. It’s simply a toss up in many ways. And although that is uncomfortable, a bullpen is much easier to improve mid-season than a starting rotation or a batting order.

 

Overall, this is a 44-48 WAR club -- or roughly an 89-91 win club, if you subscribe to Tom Tango’s methodologies -- with a payroll that should hover around the $90M mark.

 

It’s not a repeat of the franchise-record 96-win season, but this blueprint would give the Brewers another legitimate shot at the postseason and back-to-back NL Central pennants. And at this point, that’s all one can ask.

 

 

 

 

 

Pretty good outline in my opinion.

[reillymcshane]

I'd do Narveson for Morrison in a second. I think the Marlins would laugh at us, however.

[cvollbrecht]

I'd do Narveson for Morrison in a second. I think the Marlins would laugh at us, however.

 

 

While I agree that it would take more, I don't think I would take TOO much more. Narveson has 4 more years of control and would be a needed lefty in their rotation. Even if we included Gamel & Merklinger I would still be in favor of it.

[Baldkin]

So, Mat Gamel and Taylor Green.... just.... let them rot on the bench and don't trade them?

[chadomac]

I'd love to know what Jim wants to do with Taylor Green and Mat Gamel. These are not players that you just trade away for nothing.

[ramssuperbowl99]

I'd do Narveson for Morrison in a second. I think the Marlins would laugh at us, however.

 

 

While I agree that it would take more, I don't think I would take TOO much more. Narveson has 4 more years of control and would be a needed lefty in their rotation. Even if we included Gamel & Merklinger I would still be in favor of it.

If we offered Narveson, Gamel and Merklinger the Marlins would keep laughing.

It would take a package around a Wily Peralta - LoMo might not be their favorite player but top 20 hitting prospects are more valuable than a 5th starter, below average 1B and organizational player/middle reliever.

 

[yoshii8]

I love the idea of getting Chase Headley, and am starting to think Furcal might be the best vaule option at SS. I'd much rather see Wolf traded than Narveson, and I kind of want to see Gamel get the job at 1B, but I'd be ok w/ that deal. All in all, I think that would be a good off-season.

[reillymcshane]

I'd love to know what Jim wants to do with Taylor Green and Mat Gamel. These are not players that you just trade away for nothing.

I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I think he feels they are average at best players, and just as importantly, guys the team doesn't really believe in (especially with regard to Gamel).

[cvollbrecht]

I'd do Narveson for Morrison in a second. I think the Marlins would laugh at us, however.

 

 

While I agree that it would take more, I don't think I would take TOO much more. Narveson has 4 more years of control and would be a needed lefty in their rotation. Even if we included Gamel & Merklinger I would still be in favor of it.

If we offered Narveson, Gamel and Merklinger the Marlins would keep laughing.

It would take a package around a Wily Peralta - LoMo might not be their favorite player but top 20 hitting prospects are more valuable than a 5th starter, below average 1B and organizational player/middle reliever.

 

 

 

I think you are really undervaluing Narveson. He is only a 5th starter on our team. I see him as a 3/4 pitcher who is relatively cheap for the next 4 years. Also as a lefty he hold a good value for a team the competes with the Phillies(lefty dominant hitters) in their division. All that being said Marlins love cheap and i think that would hold great value to them.

[reillymcshane]

While I agree that it would take more, I don't think I would take TOO much more. Narveson has 4 more years of control and would be a needed lefty in their rotation. Even if we included Gamel & Merklinger I would still be in favor of it.

If we offered Narveson, Gamel and Merklinger the Marlins would keep laughing.

It would take a package around a Wily Peralta - LoMo might not be their favorite player but top 20 hitting prospects are more valuable than a 5th starter, below average 1B and organizational player/middle reliever.

 

 

 

I think you are really undervaluing Narveson. He is only a 5th starter on our team. I see him as a 3/4 pitcher who is relatively cheap for the next 4 years. Also as a lefty he hold a good value for a team the competes with the Phillies(lefty dominant hitters) in their division. All that being said Marlins love cheap and i think that would hold great value to them.

I don't know if it's undervaluing Narveson, but under valuing Morrison. They guy has 30+ HR ability and will be under team control for 5 more years. Perhaps the marlins think his attitude isn't worth it and they'll take a guy like Narvy for him. I just think they can get better for Morrison.

[Raw Biz]

I think LoMo is being undervalued. The guy is young and a legitimate power threat. He could be a 30 HR/100 RBI guy next year. Maybe Marlins management has soured on him enough that all it would take is Narveson. If so, I pull the trigger and worry about Gamel later. If we got LoMo, then I would consider trading Hart and moving Gamel to right.

As for Headley, I think he's being overvalued. I know he plays half his games in Petco but he's only got 36 career home runs. For a 3B, if you're not going to hit for power, you better be getting on base a lot. Last year was good at .375 but I don't think his career .343 OBP makes up for his lack of power. I would rather just give the job to Green (or Green/McGehee platoon), especially if it means having to give up Thornburg (I don't even know if I'd do Thornburg for Headley straight up).

[NievesNoNO]

I don't know if it's undervaluing Narveson, but under valuing Morrison. They guy has 30+ HR ability and will be under team control for 5 more years. Perhaps the marlins think his attitude isn't worth it and they'll take a guy like Narvy for him. I just think they can get better for Morrison.

Agreed. Even if the Marlins were looking to move him I have to think they could get more than Narveson. Narveson has maxed out his ability and is a fine 4-5th starter but Morrison is a future All-Star. I gotta believe any potential deal that has Morrison coming to Milwaukee would have Peralta leaving

[ramssuperbowl99]

While I agree that it would take more, I don't think I would take TOO much more. Narveson has 4 more years of control and would be a needed lefty in their rotation. Even if we included Gamel & Merklinger I would still be in favor of it.

If we offered Narveson, Gamel and Merklinger the Marlins would keep laughing.

It would take a package around a Wily Peralta - LoMo might not be their favorite player but top 20 hitting prospects are more valuable than a 5th starter, below average 1B and organizational player/middle reliever.

 

 

 

I think you are really undervaluing Narveson. He is only a 5th starter on our team. I see him as a 3/4 pitcher who is relatively cheap for the next 4 years. Also as a lefty he hold a good value for a team the competes with the Phillies(lefty dominant hitters) in their division. All that being said Marlins love cheap and i think that would hold great value to them.

He's 30 years old, losing velocity on his fastball, striking out fewer, and walking more with a career ERA of 4.6 in 400 IP with FIPs and xFIPs of 4.1. He might be relatively cheap, but he's going to arbitration starting next year, he's about to enter his decline phase (if he hasn't already), and he's not that good to begin with. In fact, last season Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Javier Vazquez and Anibal Sanchez all were substantially better (Nolasco in FIP and everyone else in just about every pitching statistic measureable). He's a 5th starter, not just for the Brewers, but for just about anyone.

So no, the Marlins aren't going to trade a young OFer/1B who has had a fair bit of major league success already, has 5 more years of team control, and was a top 20 prospect in all of baseball for Chris Narveson and some throw in pieces. And if they do, they all deserve to be fired. It's a laughably one sided deal.

[RockCoCougars]

I like the concept, but all three of those trade proposals would be laughed at.

[Oldcity]

Yeah, those trades wouldn't get accepted. I also see the Cards re-signing Furcal.

[JohnBriggs12]

Let me get this straight. Unless you want to pay Randy Wolf $10 million to pitch at age 36 in 2013, they presently control only 40% of their rotation beyond 2012. So the solution is to trade one of the two you do control and who figures to still be reasonably affordable? Then in another deal you sacrifice a strong, minimum salary candidate to fill one of those open spots in the 2013 rotation?

 

Then by trading for a 1B and 3B, you completely negate any value of two players in Green and Gamel who posted .997 and .862 OPS, and combined for 50 HR and 184 RBI at AAA?

 

Furcal? Seriously? Take away his 49 regular season AB's against the Brewers, and he hit .222 and slugged .303 with 3 HR and 19 RBI in 284 AB's against the rest of the league.

 

Thankfully Mr. Breen isn't running this organization. He must see pitching depth in the organization that I don't see. My 2013 rotation includes both Narveson and Thornburg along with Gallardo, Peralta and a solid FA veteran. No way I deal those guys.

[Oldcity]

Yeah, with the raises coming to guys like Weeks, Hart, Braun, and Gallardo, the Brewers need to build up a core of cost-efficient players. They'll need guys like Gamel, Green, Fiers, Thornburg, Peralta simply because they'll be cheap.

[dadofandrew]

What Briggs said. Painfully amateurish.

 

Add in Saito, a guy who can't go back-to-back days as the 8th inning guy, and the lack of research is apparent. Also note that there's no mention of "extra" pitchers except Peralta. Needless to say, Doug will have more than 13 pitchers to choose from, as injuries and ineffectiveness will happen.

[TooLiveBrew]

Painfully amateurish.

 

Breen does a pretty good job blogging the Brewers. Painfully amateurish is just absurd. Given your comments, you don't seem to have read the piece, but instead just skimmed the synopsis that begins it. He clearly put a good amount of research into this.

 

"Durability will always be an issue for Saito, but the right-hander is very effective when healthy and on the mound. His slider needs a bit more work for the 2013 season -- but as long as the club does not rely upon him to be the primary set-up man, he should thrive once again."

"The pitching staff certainly loses some certainty without Narveson, but between Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, and Wily Peralta, the Brewers should still have a Top 5 starting rotation in the National League.

...

The addition of Kintzler and Parra, though, could also turn this bullpen into a huge strength. It’s simply a toss up in many ways."

So there are your two posted complaints with Breen's post, actually addressed in the piece. Maybe read the whole thing next time before resorting to name-calling.

[nate82]

Trading away Narveson will not hurt the Brewers all that much. The Brewers have a couple of options to replace Narveson in the rotation with Fiers, Peralta, and Estrada. Going further into the future you have Thornburg, Scarpetta, and Rivas who can fill in as #4's and #5's who will be cheap. The Brewers have a lot of starting pitching that they can put into the #4 or #5 spot in the rotation right now and if you can trade away someone like Narveson and get younger at another position you do that all day long. This is why I would like to see Hart, Narveson, McGehee, or Marcum traded. The Brewers need to get some more young talent into the farm system that can replace what the Brewers have currently.

As for the article here I would not do the trade for Headley as that is a rather big risk to gamble on by giving up a young starter in Thornburg. I do believe the Brewers are going to trade McGehee I just don't believe it will be for an impact player like a Headley could be. I still believe the Phillies are the best option to trade with in terms of McGehee as Rizzotti or Mayberry could be available. I would prefer Rizzotti over Mayberry but I will take what I can get for McGehee at this point. The Narveson trade is more lopsided and in favor of the Brewers that it wouldn't be accepted at all. To get Logan Morrison from the Marlins it is going to cost more than Narveson maybe a Marcum for Morrison could do it but that still seems unlikely. Narveson to the Nationals makes a little bit more sense but the team that makes the most sense would be the Giants or the A's. I am not sure who the Brewers could get for Narveson from the A's or the Giants.

I do have the feeling that Kottaras will be traded the Royals, Red Sox, Mets, and Dodgers make the most sense here for Kottaras but what you will get for him is unknown and probably not that much. Furcal makes no sense at all and the Brewers should stay far far far far away from Furcal as he looks like he is done offensively. He looked rather bad with the Cardinals when he wasn't playing against the Brewers. Jerry Hairston will be brought back and I think he will be the super utility guy but I think he is going to get the majority of the starts at 3B. Saito will be fine on a one year deal. Kerry Wood will retire if he is not playing for the Cubs next year so I don't see that as a possibility. Scott Hairston would be nice but would be unnecessary. I would rather sign Wily Mo Pena to be the teams RH platoon option with Gamel. This then gives the Brewers a power bat from the right hand side of the plate on the bench.

I believe Hart is also available for a trade but Melvin isn't going to go out and look to trade Hart so that could add some more payroll flexibility for the Brewers to sign someone like Reyes. Marcum will also be available but not shopped like Hart and the same with Greinke.

[dadofandrew]

Breen does a pretty good job blogging the Brewers. Painfully amateurish is just absurd. Given your comments, you don't seem to have read the piece, but instead just skimmed the synopsis that begins it. He clearly put a good amount of research into this.

 

"Durability will always be an issue for Saito, but the right-hander is very effective when healthy and on the mound. His slider needs a bit more work for the 2013 season -- but as long as the club does not rely upon him to be the primary set-up man, he should thrive once again."

"The pitching staff certainly loses some certainty without Narveson, but between Mike Fiers, Marco Estrada, and Wily Peralta, the Brewers should still have a Top 5 starting rotation in the National League.

...

The addition of Kintzler and Parra, though, could also turn this bullpen into a huge strength. It’s simply a toss up in many ways."

So there are your two posted complaints with Breen's post, actually addressed in the piece. Maybe read the whole thing next time before resorting to name-calling.

Saito is the primary set-up man in Breen's scenario. He also counts on two guys returning from injury to hold down spots with no "what ifs" other than Peralta. He has Fiers as the #5 SP, and Estrada in the bullpen. As I said, Saito is limited, no back-to-backs (or very, very few) and one inning a game. His "plan" has no pitching depth except Peralta, despite a plethora of guys coming off injuries.

 

Morrison is worth far more than Narveson as well. I do agree Thornburg would be a mighty tough trade, but especially for a guy like Headley, who is not a huge upgrade over the cheaper Green/RH platoon option. Tyler could go for a good SS, not for a tiny improvement at 3B.

 

Deciding on Scott Hairston is odd too, as he gets out 70% of the time, not what you want to see in a bench bat, to say the least. I could name several better, never mind you'd prefer a SH/LH hitter to back up Braun/Hart.

[cvollbrecht]

What Briggs said. Painfully amateurish.

 

Add in Saito, a guy who can't go back-to-back days as the 8th inning guy, and the lack of research is apparent. Also note that there's no mention of "extra" pitchers except Peralta. Needless to say, Doug will have more than 13 pitchers to choose from, as injuries and ineffectiveness will happen.

 

 

He talks about Wood being the setup man, and Saito in a similar role to this year. Peralta and Estrada would be SP 6/7. Parra and Kinzler are added to the bullpen. All of your point are addressed in the article?

[paul253]

If Hart doesn't like hitting 5th, how can you plug him into the #4 hole?

[TooLiveBrew]

His "plan" has no pitching depth except Peralta, despite a plethora of guys coming off injuries.

It has plenty of depth. Guys like Narveson can be found in FA every offseason, & with the way Breen constructs the roster (affordable Fiers/Peralta/Estrada as #5 starter), the Brewers would have the flexibility to make an addition to the bullpen or starting rotation via FA or trade without breaking the bank.

He has Fiers as the #5 SP, and Estrada in the bullpen.

He also says the #5 spot should be fine between Peralta, Fiers, & Estrada. Estrada could easily get stretched out if need be, & Peralta's one flight or bus ride away from joining the team.

Saito is the primary set-up man in Breen's scenario.

You didn't really even read what I quoted in my last post, let alone the article. Is he listed second after John Axford on the graphic? Yes. Does he also explicitly say that Saito would not be relied up on as the primary set-up man? Yes.

I just don't get why you felt like crapping on what was clearly a carefully thought-out post, complete with Breen critiquing his idea's strengths & weaknesses.

[kramnoj]

Guys like Narveson can be found in FA every offseason

 

You aren't helping your defense of Breen here. If this were true, the Marlins would have no need to trade someone away for a piece they can pick up as a FA.