Bowden's FA Price list

[cvollbrecht]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7182272/putting-price-albert-pujols-prince-fielder-other-top-free-agents

 

This is an Insider article but I'll post the Brewer related figures. Rank numbers are based on his predicted annual salary.

 

#2 Prince Fielder 8/$192M

Analysis: Scott Boras, who represents Fielder, is all about passing milestones, and he is going to make sure Fielder gets north of the eight-year, $180 million deal he negotiated for Mark Teixeira with the Yankees back in 2009. If the Dodgers' ownership transfer is timely, they could shock the baseball world with Fielder joining Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier in the middle of their lineup.

Best fits: Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers

 

#3 Jose Reyes 6/$108M

Analysis: Carl Crawford's poor performance on the seven-year, $142 million deal he signed with Boston last winter will hurt Reyes' value since the two have very similar offensive profiles. Another issue for Reyes is his nagging hamstring problems. However, that won't stop him from getting six years, because he's the best shortstop and leadoff hitter on the free-agent market.

Best fits: San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers

 

#17 Carlos Pena 2/$17M

Analysis: He'll make less per year than the $10 million he earned in 2011, but he'll get at least a two-year pact. He is a good defender who can crush righties, and is a relatively cheap alternative to Fielder and Pujols.

Best fits: Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers

 

#18 Francisco Rodriguez 2/$17M

Analysis: K-Rod turned off some GMs back in September when he complained about the Brewers' not using him as their closer. His most likely destination is Florida under new Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen.

Best fits: Baltimore Orioles, Florida Marlins

 

#32 Joel Pineiro 1/$5M

Analysis: The Brewers and Royals need back-of-the-rotation starters, and Pineiro could fit in nicely with either club at the right price.

Best fits: Milwaukee Brewers, Kansas City Royals

 

#40 Casey Kotchman 1/$4M

Analysis: Kotchman is one of the best defensive first basemen in baseball and had a career year at the plate. Not enough power or run production to get paid, but he is a useful player. However, the Rays would prefer to get more offensive production from first.

Best fits: Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers

#44 Jeff Francis 1/$4M

Analysis: Another year distanced from an injury, Francis is a winner. The left-hander is worth a gamble for someone willing to give a low base salary with incentives.

Best fits: Milwaukee Brewers, Kansas City Royals

 

#50 Mike Gonzalez 2/$7M

Analysis: Gonzalez did a solid job in the Rangers' bullpen and should want to re-sign with them with a chance for another postseason appearance next year. He'll be used more as a left-handed specialist rather than his previous roles as a setup man and closer.

Best fits: Texas Rangers, Milwaukee Brewers

 

 

I have no idea why he thinks we need a back of the rotation starter, unless he thinks we should move Narveson to the BP? Rotation is the least of our offseason concerns IMO.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

[RockCoCougars]

Don't like any of his projections. What use would the Brewers have throwing $5 million away on Joel Piniero or Francis? As for Mike Gonzalez, he's a gas can, for $3.5 per you could come close to signing both Saito and Hawkins.

[cvollbrecht]

Don't like any of his projections. What use would the Brewers have throwing $5 million away on Joel Piniero or Francis? As for Mike Gonzalez, he's a gas can, for $3.5 per you could come close to signing both Saito and Hawkins.

I totally agree. I think the most interesting part of the article is Fielders contract. I just really cant see a team giving him that much over that many years. Also, if Reyes is going to get 18/year then the only way I could see that happening for the Brewers is if we unload one of Marcum or Wolf and we don't tender McGehee. Without losing one of those contracts there would be very little money left over to shape the bullpen again other the minimum guys.

 

[paul253]

If we give Carlos Pena 2 years for $17 million I'm going to be pretty upset. You can Gamel for about 1/15th the cost. Heck I'd rather give K-Rod that contract even though we know he won't resign with us to be an 8th inning guy for two more years. And I agree with RoCo's take on Francis and Pinero? Why on earth would they sign either of those guys unless they traded Marcum or Wolf. And if they did trade someone I imagine it's because they feel that Peralta or Fiers is ready to take over.

[RockCoCougars]

I totally agree. I think the most interesting part of the article is Fielders contract. I just really cant see a team giving him that much over that many years.

 

Agreed. I'm thinking that the best that Prince will do is a 6 year deal with a player out after 3 years. The big guy has been extremely durable, but his size is going to scare some people. Sexson was very durable as well in his full Brewer seasons. He was nearly as productive at the plate, and much better defensively at first in my opinion. He only got a four year deal in a better economy(granted he was a year or two older and off a fairly major injury).

[burnzy24]

I think these projections are a good example of why Bowden works for ESPN and is not a GM anymore. I can't see Reyes getting 6 years, Pena getting 2/$17, or why the Brewers would pay $5 million on aa starting pitcher in a rotation that is basically set. I also think Epstein is smart enough to seek pitching first and not spend a ton of money on Prince, and the Dodgers won't be in a position to spend any money until their ownership situation is resolved. By that time someone will have already have signed Prince.

[jmeks23]

Yeah, all of the numbers pretty much are ludicrous IMO. Reyes will probably sign for 4-5 years with options. Pena might get two years but it's not a smart investment. I wouldn't mind either at the right price though. Pena's BA sucks badly but he hits HRs and has a great glove at first. Only problem is he negates Gamel, which I don't think the Brewers want to do at this point.

[Team Canada]

But everytime you think the numbers are ludicrous, someone goes out and gives Jayson Werth a contract. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of those estimates isn't that far off.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'm not interested in any of the above at those prices. Possibly for lower prices, but that's it. I do think all but Pineiro and Francis could be possibilities though. Not sure why he thinks we need a 5 starter. We have Narveson for a lot cheaper price.

[DHonks]

cvollbrecht, why would we need to unload Marcum or Wolf? Reyes would slide into the payroll spot of Fielder from 2011. If Gamel is at 1b, we'll have a cheaper 1b/ss combo in 2012 than 2011, and that's with Reyes. As for the pen, I'd love to bring back Hawkins and Saito, and how much money will they get at their ages? We had a very strong bullpen, and I don't see it getting much worse even if it remains intact (except KRod)

[trwi7]

DHonks wrote:

---

Reyes would slide into the payroll spot of Fielder from 2011.

You're completely ignoring the fact that Braun, Hart, Morgan, Weeks, Marcum, Gallardo etc. will all be getting pretty substantial pay raises. Braun, Hart, Weeks and Gallardo alone are going to make $13.25M more combined than they did in 2011. Morgan and Marcum will get sizable increases as well although we don't know exactly how much. Gomez and Loe will also get raises.

[jmeks23]

Yeah, people need to stop thinking that Prince's 15.5M leaves 15.5M left to be spent this offseason. It doesn't work that way.

 

However, with non-tender and a likely trade of at least one player, you do have a little more flexibility.

[dadofandrew]

Take a year off Prince and Reyes, and the money and years seem reasonable and likely. Some, especially the lower level SP's, seem a bit low.

[DHonks]

DHonks wrote:

---

Reyes would slide into the payroll spot of Fielder from 2011.

You're completely ignoring the fact that Braun, Hart, Morgan, Weeks, Marcum, Gallardo etc. will all be getting pretty substantial pay raises. Braun, Hart, Weeks and Gallardo alone are going to make $13.25M more combined than they did in 2011. Morgan and Marcum will get sizable increases as well although we don't know exactly how much. Gomez and Loe will also get raises.

Hence why Hart and Gomez could be dealt, and Loe non-tendered or traded. Unfortunately I don't think Gomez has any value, and Loe probably is worth more to us than another team.

[JohnBriggs12]

"Rotation is one of the least of our concerns".

 

I don't agree with that. The rotation is always a prime concern and expecting repeats of prior years from all is shortsighted. Still the rotation was only 6th best in the NL in ERA I believe, which means there is room for improvement.

 

Still, with Peralta, Fiers, De la Cruz, Estrada they have guys capable of stepping into a 5th spot. Spending another $4-5 million on a Pineiro or a Francis only makes sense if you've already unloaded a higher price guy like Wolf or Marcum. Now that's a route I'd seriously consider going myself if you don't want to overpay to bring them back in 2013.

[JohnBriggs12]

If we give Carlos Pena 2 years for $17 million I'm going to be pretty upset. You can Gamel for about 1/15th the cost. Heck I'd rather give K-Rod that contract even though we know he won't resign with us to be an 8th inning guy for two more years. And I agree with RoCo's take on Francis and Pinero? Why on earth would they sign either of those guys unless they traded Marcum or Wolf. And if they did trade someone I imagine it's because they feel that Peralta or Fiers is ready to take over.

I don't get why Pena is always listed so highly. What did he do for the Cubs last year? Nothing. He can't hit lefties at all. He's not hit over .227 the last 3 years plus he'll be 34 next year.. If they don't have faith in Gamel, I much prefer the $4 million gamble that Kotchman could build on his 2011 season. Plus he's a very good defensive 1st baseman.

[dadofandrew]

Pena was very solid in '11, he just walks instead of getting singles. OBP and SLG is 98% effective in predicting runs scored, BA is not. I doubt BA even gets mentioned in many front offices. He should be platooned though, but finding a lefty masher to play 1B is cheap and easy.

[dadofandrew]

I bet Bowden was low on Madsen, and will be on others. This is not 2002, and the owners are flush with cash.

[BREWCREW5]

Pena would totally suck. Give 1b to Gamel, 3rd to Green and sign Reyes for SS. Yep!

[RockCoCougars]

I bet Bowden was low on Madsen, and will be on others. This is not 2002, and the owners are flush with cash.

 

I don't know. The Madson deal definitely got things off to a crazy start. This is the biggest head scratcher that I can remember since Gary Matthews Jr.

[endaround]

Pena was distinctly average last year for a 1B. A WAR of 2.6 in 606 PAs isn't anything to be that happy about. He's a guy you might sign for 1 year at $5m since while BA isn't important to production a declining BA is one of the signs that a player is losing his ability to hit. Right now it looks like Pena is a pure garbage hitter.

[jmeks23]

Yeah, Madson getting over 10M a year when he wasn't an effective closer until this past season, really doesn't make sense. I think Amaro is just spending just to spend now.

[prophet]

I'm not big on Pena, especially at the price. But, i do like Kotchman. His defense is very good, and he can hit. He's not Fielder and won't give us power but he reminds me of Overbay (when he was here not now), where he can spray the ball around the field, but better defense.

[reillymcshane]

The only way I sign Kotchman or Pena is at a reasonable base salary, and maybe some incentives for playing time. AND if you really don't trust Mat Gamel.

 

I don't trust Kotchman - one good year in the past four is scary. I

haven't watched him play lately, so I don't know if he figured

something out or what. But I'd be wary. But I could see $3-4 million on a one year deal. I like getting some good defense on the field. He needs a platoon partner.

 

For Pena, he's pretty consistent and you know what he is - low

(sometimes very low) average, 30 HR, 160 strikeouts, good defense, lot

of walks. I just worry he'll hit .196 like in 2010. He turns 34 early

next year, and losing a little bat speed will only exacerbate his

tendencies. And he can't hit lefties worth diddly crap anymore. He needs

a platoon partner. He had a sub .600 OPS versus lefties last year. For Pena, I could see $5 million and incentives. But I think he's a bigger risk (and bigger reward) than Kotchman.

 

With both kotchman and Pena you're looking at two guys who show some significant split numbers. Both should probably be platooned. Which makes me just say, why not try Gamel out and platoon him? He's cheaper than all of them. May as well try it - at least in my book.

[cvollbrecht]

He's been suprisingly accurate so far. He has undervalued the MI market but he just about nailed the Papelbon which a lot of people thought was overpriced.