Would Braun be better suited in RF?

[CheezWizHed]

First of all, I don't want to turn this into a "Move Hart to 1B, Braun to RF, sign a LF" thread. There are plenty of lineup/who-to-sign (and shuffle current players) discussions going on. I'm looking for more of an academic answer to the question. Same with "move him to 1B". Lots of discussion on that, but that isn't really the point here.

 

Secondly, I don't get to watch many games. So my first hand observations of Braun are limited.

 

So given those caveats, here is my line of thinking:

- Braun has a strong arm. Strong enough for RF. Probably his biggest defensive strength

- Braun has range issues. Whether its speed, bad routes to the ball, slow recognition, whatever. This seems to be his biggest defensive weakness.

 

So in RF, Braun's arm would become more useful. Range is essentially the same in LF vs. RF. BUT, I would think there are fewer balls hit to RF than LF. Not sure where to look that up, but basing that on the much higher number of RHB and them being more likely to hit to the left side.

 

So emphasize the strength (arm) while hiding his weakness (range).

 

Thoughts?

[monty57]

The major difference between RF & LF is that the RF has to make throws to 3B, so he should have a strong arm, while the LF rarely has to throw to 1B. The throw to home is the same distance from either position. Pretty much all else is the same (the ball tails the opposite direction, but that just takes playing a little bit to get used to it). In little league and "beer league" softball, most players are RH and pull the ball, so bad fielders are stashed in RF. In the majors, I don't think that's much of an issue, and the RF gets plenty of opportunities.

 

I'm one of those (seemingly) few on this site who thinks Braun has grown into a decent corner OF. He would be fine in RF, but there's no reason to move him simply to move him, as it would require some adjustment. If something should happen that we trade Hart and pick up a corner OF with no arm, then moving Braun to RF should be considered.

[Baldkin]

He may have a strong arm but, to quote Crash Davis, "I just don't know where its going."

 

Hart, on the other hand, has a strong and very accurate arm.

[CheezWizHed]

In little league and "beer league" softball, most players are RH and pull the ball

 

Sure the effect is lessened in the MLB, but I really doubt every player hits an equal amount of balls to LF and RF.

[endaround]

No but the overprevelance of LH power hitters makes a difference. Keep in mind about 9% of the population is LH while about 1/3 of baseball players hit from that side.

[TooLiveBrew]

I actually don't agree that Braun's arm is his biggest defensive asset (speed is, imo). I think he has an overall average outfield arm, with maybe above-avg. arm strength. One sign of not having enough arm strength to make a given throw is that you lose accuracy in trying to throw it harder than you're actually capable of doing accurately -- that's what I think you see when you see him uncork one wildly toward home plate. Moving him to RF would expose his arm even more. At the very least, it's an inaccurate or inconsistently accurate arm, & even that in RF would be exposed.

 

Braun's come a long way on defense, but leftfield is the best fit for him imo. He'll only occasionally have to try to make the huge throws, & his ability to cover a lot of ground will continue to be an asset.

[monty57]

He may have a strong arm but, to quote Crash Davis, "I just don't know where its going."

 

Hart, on the other hand, has a strong and very accurate arm.

Really? I don't pay real close attention to this, but I've seen plenty of Hart's balls bouncing there way into home, while Braun seems to have a pretty good arm. I'd put Gomez in the strong arm but don't know where it's going camp, as a lot of his throws home come closer to thrid base.

[TooLiveBrew]

Bouncing isn't necessarily a bad thing, though. If it's on target, it's on target (I know some of you other people had to do the Tom Emanski 'throw it into the garbage can turned on its side' drill in little league!). I think Hart has the stronger arm, but I definitely think he can be inaccurate. If I had to grade the arms relative to other outfielders, I think I'd go something like a B strength/C accuracy for Hart, & a C strength/B accuracy for Braun. Just my opinion.

EDIT: Whoops, thought you were responding to me, prior to your ninja edit, monty http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Yeah, Gomez is the one that fits the Crash Davis quip. That's an A or A+ arm in terms of strength, with maybe a D/D+ accuracy. Sometimes having that huge arm means you can improve your accuracy by not throwing at full strength... that's how Gomez's throws to the plate on singles to center appear to me; he seems to have decent accuracy on those throws, but when he lets it fly at full power, watch out!

[topper09er]

Hart, on the other hand, has a strong and very accurate arm.

I dont think I can ever recall Hart making an excellent throw to the plate in the air...ever. Braun will do that from time to time, but Braun will also throw a blooper 30 feet over the cut off man that ends up half way down the line from time to time also. According to UZR they both have a similarly bad arm, Braun with -15.5 runs in 5250.1 innings in the OF (-2.95 ArmRuns/1000 inn), and Hart with -18.8 runs in 6272.2 OF innings (-3.00 ArmRuns/1000 inn).

 

[Ennder]

I would say Hart has a lot of positives but not his arm strength. I'm sure Braun would be fine in RF, the fewer balls that get hit to him the better in general.

[trwi7]

I remember earlier this year Hart had to make a throw from shallow RF and it barely made it past the infield dirt before it bounced. His arm is awful.

[JET15]

Fangraphs has an Advanced Fielding stat for arms (rARM). Hart was a -1 and Braun was a -5 on that stat. Neither are too hot.

 

Here's the link

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0

 

Click on rARM a couple of times to sort it descending to see the leaders

[TooLiveBrew]

I remember earlier this year Hart had to make a throw from shallow RF and it barely made it past the infield dirt before it bounced. His arm is awful.

Are you just basing this off one bad throw? Hart's arm isn't awful, it's probably about average or below-avg. for RF. That -1 rating that JET posted (assuming 0 is neutral) seems about accurate imo.

[MJLiverock]

I would say Hart has a lot of positives but not his arm strength. I'm sure Braun would be fine in RF, the fewer balls that get hit to him the better in general.

Why would having fewer balls go to Braun be better? Didn't the discussion in the Gold Glove thread seem to point to Braun actually being one of the better LF'ers as far as fielding goes? I know it gets to be popular to rag on the fielding of every player but unless you are holding Braun up to standards of CFers then it seems he is just fine as a corner OF.

[Ennder]

I didn't read that thread but I'd guess it was a bunch of people that are wrong. Visually he looks like a poor fielder and I've never seen him rated as even average by any metric. Braun is not a good defensive player. Out of all the LF in baseball with at least 400 PA last year only 6 of them had a lower UZR/150 than him. I think if people are saying he is pretty good 'for a LF' they are probably using the stats incorrectly assuming they were backing up the opinion with stats. Of course part of that is how wildly inaccurate his arm is which probably wouldn't help much in RF.

[endaround]

Keep in mind that RF in Milwaukee with that wall is a busted knee waiting to happen. You don't move Braun there.

[trwi7]

TooLiveBrew wrote:

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Are you just basing this off one bad throw? Hart's arm isn't awful, it's probably about average or below-avg. for RF. That -1 rating that JET posted (assuming 0 is neutral) seems about accurate imo.

No, not just on that throw. His problem is he doesn't set his momentum to go towards where the throw is heading so he doesn't get as much on the throw as he could. Most of the time when I see him he'll be standing flat footed with no momentum so the throw ends up being pretty bad.

[RightFieldCoder]

I sit behind Hart. He has no arm strength, but it is usually on a line with where he want to throw it. Hart also makes sure to keep it low for the cut off man. Braun has a stronger arm, but likes to show it off by chucking the ball high in the air in the vicinity of the infield.

[Oldcity]

TooLiveBrew wrote:

---

Are you just basing this off one bad throw? Hart's arm isn't awful, it's probably about average or below-avg. for RF. That -1 rating that JET posted (assuming 0 is neutral) seems about accurate imo.

No, not just on that throw. His problem is he doesn't set his momentum to go towards where the throw is heading so he doesn't get as much on the throw as he could. Most of the time when I see him he'll be standing flat footed with no momentum so the throw ends up being pretty bad. Definitely agree with this. Multiple times this season Hart, rather than getting under the ball and starting towards home, will jog, catch it over his head, and have no momentum going into his throw.

[Ennder]

Keep in mind that RF in Milwaukee with that wall is a busted knee waiting to happen. You don't move Braun there.

 

This is certainly true, every time Hart does a sliding attempt I think he is going to hurt himself.

[Roderick]

Hart, on the other hand, has a strong and very accurate arm.

Is there any stats on runners going from first to third on hits to RF?

 

I would say that more and more players are taking their privileges on Hart. If the arm isn't the problem, then it must be because they know he won't/can't run full speed at the ball on the pickup to hold them at 2nd.

[JohnBriggs12]

He may have a strong arm but, to quote Crash Davis, "I just don't know where its going."

 

Hart, on the other hand, has a strong and very accurate arm.

Speaking of accuracy, this is an inaccurate statement. Hart had just 3 OF assists last year to Braun's 8. If Braun's arm were so inaccurate, he'd have more than 6 errors in the 603 games he's played in LF. Hart's arm isn't exceptional. It's adequate but it's never discussed as one that teams fear to run on.

[Baldkin]

1) You don't get an error when you make a bad throw unless you throw it into the stands, which is REALLY hard to do for a LF.

2) Guys don't run on Hart as much as they do on Braun

3) Have you watched Braun throw? (an extreme example, but.... yeah... he didn't get an error for that throw!)

4) At least 3 of Braun's assists were on balls he misjudged and made diving catches on, doubling guys off.

Oh, another example...

[logan82]

You get an outfield assist even if the ball is cut off. Outfield assists seem to be as much a result of bad judgement by the 3B coach as the outfielder.Seems pretty random much like RBI. You don't get them unless the opportunity presents itself.

[Flood Pants]

And if Braun has more balls hit to him than does Hart, it makes sense that he'd accrue more assists.