2012 Shortstop

[twobrewers]

If the Brewers are going to pay a crappy shortstop (Barmes, Bartlett, Wilson, etc) - I'd prefer they pay the one that costs the least in salary and potential trade costs.

 

I'd rather sign Yuni for another year at $1M than pay Barmes $7M over the next two years. If the Brewers can't sign Reyes or Rollins, they should focus on the best value of the remaining options. There is no reason to overpay when the other options are pretty equal.

 

[endaround]

They aren't equal. Barmes was a 3 win player last year, Barlett 1.8, Wilson 0 in part time play and Yuni was 0.5.

[twobrewers]

In 2010...

Yuniesky Betancourt = 1.3 WAR

Clint Barmes = 1.3 WAR

Jason Bartlett = 1.7 WAR

Jack Wilson = 1.3 WAR

 

I'm not willing to pay Clint Barmes for the career season he had in 2011. If we are going off potential - Bartlett posted a 4.7 WAR in 2009. I'll gladly stand by my "pretty equal" comment.

[logan82]

Where are you getting your WAR from?

[twobrewers]

Baseball Reference...

[reillymcshane]

In 2010...

Yuniesky Betancourt = 1.3 WAR

Clint Barmes = 1.3 WAR

Jason Bartlett = 1.7 WAR

Jack Wilson = 1.3 WAR

 

I'm not willing to pay Clint Barmes for the career season he had in 2011. If we are going off potential - Bartlett posted a 4.7 WAR in 2009. I'll gladly stand by my "pretty equal" comment.

I think it's wrong to pick just one year as a way to determine a player's

value, but instead, should look at several recent years to get.

 

From Baseball Reference, WAR for each player in 2009, 2010 and 2011:

 

Yuni: -1.3, 1.3 and 0.7

Barmes: 2.0, 1.3 and 2.9

Barlett: 4.7, 1.7 and 0.1

Wilson: 1.7, 1.3 and 0.9

 

Based on this, I'd say that Barmes is the best bet. Yes, 2011 is his 'career' year, and i wouldn't plan on him getting a 3.0 WAR. But a 2.0 WAR? Sure, I can see that. And maybe more. I think that makes him the clear winner.

 

Yuni has produced terribly. Bartlett has fallen off the face of the earth (and you'd have to trade for him). Wilson has declined every year, and his history of injuries is unsettling.

 

If we can add Reyes, by all means. Or find a good young shortstop at AAA that can come in. But those are big ifs.

 

Barmes is a solid option at short - especially if you compare him to the other players listed. At about $4 million a year, he's not a great value. But he's fair for the circumstance.

 

Bartlett is an intriguing option, as he's mixed some very good years with some awful seasons. He is scheduled to make $5.5 million in 2012, and has an option for the same in 2013 with a $1.5 million buyout. If you traded for him, you'd have to get some serious coin back from SD to consider him any sort of value.

[JohnBriggs12]

"Yuni has produced terribly"?

 

Say what? He was 2nd among NL SS last year in RBI. I know nobody looks at RBI as meaningful anymore, but it is a measure of production. The 146 RBI's he's got in the last 2 seasons are more than Mike Cameron had in his 2 years as a Brewer.

 

In 294 AB's since the All Star break including the postseason, Betancourt hit .276, with 17 doubles, 2 triples, 9 HR, and 44 RBI. He slugged .436.

 

How is that producing terribly? Yes, he was less than stellar in the first half, but most guys struggle after changing leagues.

[Oldcity]

He doesn't get on base and he has poor defensive range. Those are by far the two most important things for a shortstop, and he doesn't do either.

[reillymcshane]

"Yuni has produced terribly"?

 

Say what? He was 2nd among NL SS last year in RBI. I know nobody looks at RBI as meaningful anymore, but it is a measure of production. The 146 RBI's he's got in the last 2 seasons are more than Mike Cameron had in his 2 years as a Brewer.

 

In 294 AB's since the All Star break including the postseason, Betancourt hit .276, with 17 doubles, 2 triples, 9 HR, and 44 RBI. He slugged .436.

 

How is that producing terribly? Yes, he was less than stellar in the first half, but most guys struggle after changing leagues.

John, you value RBI a lot. I love them too. But it's all relative to the situation. Yuni had a lot of chances. Plain and simple. And he hit worse with runners on (.237 ave) and in scoring position (.211 ave.) than without anyone one.

 

But Yuni isn't the worse hitting SS in the world. Not by a long shot. But production, in my book, includes defense. And I watch him and see an absolutely terrible fielder.

 

My assessment on Yuni is that he's a terrible fielder. He is also a bad hitter with a bad average and bad on base percentage. He has average power for a shortstop. His ability to make contact can be a plus, but he's also shown little ability to work counts (which helps the team as it wears down pitchers). And he can't bunt. He stays healthy - something that can't be ignored.

 

Ultimately, I look at the entire player. In this case, someone has used WAR to assess Yuni (and the other guys). Yuni's combined WAR over the past three years is 0.7. For a guy who's played full time, that's simply awful - one of the worse players in the league. Of course, how you look at WAR is another thing. But I look at it as one tool in assessing a player. In the case of Yuni, I use my own eyes to know he's a bad player. And then I can use the data to back that up. The stats (not just 1/2 a season of them) show him to be a terrible fielder (WAR, Zone Rating, Range Factor, Fielding % all concur on this). And the stats show him to be a bad hitter (over the past three years a .658 OPS, .252 AVE, .277 OBP, .381 SLG).

[RockCoCougars]

Say what? He was 2nd among NL SS last year in RBI. I know nobody looks at RBI as meaningful anymore, but it is a measure of production. The 146 RBI's he's got in the last 2 seasons are more than Mike Cameron had in his 2 years as a Brewer.

 

But Cammy had better at bats. He generally swung and missed 2 or 3 times and could coax at least 3 or 4 pitches out of the pitcher. Yuni often makes contact on the first pitch.

[Oldcity]

Plus Mike Cameron wasn't a horrendous liability on defense.

[pingman]

trade? If the Reyes to Marlins rumor is true how about going after Hanley Ramirez?

 

Ramirez has been a pain in the arse but you can't deny his talent....and maybe a change of scenery is exactly what he needs.....It seems like the Marlins are looking for pitching

[endaround]

Keep in m ind that you really can't compare WAR prior to this year since Barmes was mostly used at 2B over those periods and so he's actually being hampered by that since his bat plays much better at short.

[PrinceEatMeat]

trade? If the Reyes to Marlins rumor is true how about going after Hanley Ramirez?

 

Ramirez has been a pain in the arse but you can't deny his talent....and maybe a change of scenery is exactly what he needs.....It seems like the Marlins are looking for pitching

Sign me up for that. Ramirez must really irritate that organization if they wanna risk signing Reyes to trade him.

[travisteck]

It was hanley that went to the front office and said he'd slide to 3rd if they would sign reyes

[PrinceEatMeat]

I've heard conflicting reports on that. With the organization saying that wouldn't consider moving Ramirez. But I just read that the two are good friends, so it's possible Ramirez would move for him.

[travisteck]

Either way, it would be a sick team down there.

 

As far as our ss situation goes, I'd either want reyes or furcal (either should be great if healthy) or barmes/ brendan ryan.

 

With all of those choices, we get good d at least

[RockCoCougars]

Either way, it would be a sick team down there.

 

They'd definitely have the covers of the '2012 Fantasy Baseball Annual' magazines monopolized.

[travisteck]

I know it's just talk, but with all the Latin American influence down in Miami, they probably can attract a lot of Latin players.. it'll be interesting.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Melvin was seen talking to Furcal's agent already at the GM Meetings today.

[BrandonBurns]

Melvin was seen talking to Furcal's agent already at the GM Meetings today.

This. I guess I was resigned to Furcal going back to STL. What would it take 12M over 2 years? This would be ideal versus overpaying for an injury prone SS and regretting it over the second half of his contract.

[Raw Biz]

Melvin was seen talking to Furcal's agent already at the GM Meetings today.

This. I guess I was resigned to Furcal going back to STL. What would it take 12M over 2 years? This would be ideal versus overpaying for an injury prone SS and regretting it over the second half of his contract.

Furcal hasn't exactly been the healthiest either. That being said, I'd much rather have Furcal on shorter contract than Reyes on a massive one. He made $13 mil this past year and obviously won't get that but I would think it will take at least 7-8 per year.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I wish I was at that meeting though, because Paul Kinzer (Furcal's agent) also represents Aramis Ramirez. I'd be curious to know if Melvin has more interest in him.

[GoudaBrew]

Melvin was seen talking to Furcal's agent already at the GM Meetings today.

Furcal has the same agent as free agent......wait for it......Aramis Ramirez. AHHHHH!

[PrinceEatMeat]

Melvin was seen talking to Furcal's agent already at the GM Meetings today.

Furcal has the same agent as free agent......wait for it......Aramis Ramirez. AHHHHH!

Yep, this really makes me curious. Ramirez would look really good hitting cleanup behind Braun. I don't care if he plays 1B or 3B. Although, it's obviously 3B in all actuality.