Tender projections

[JohnBriggs12]

MLB Trade Rumors projects the 7 Brewers eligible for arbitration:

 

Marcum $6.8 million

 

McGehee $3.1 million

 

Loe $2.8 million

 

Morgan $1.9 million

 

Gomez $1.8 million

 

Parra $1.2 million

 

Kottaras $.8 million

 

It lists only Parra as a non-tender candidate. I would add Loe to that list myself. They could use the money saved on him for a better late inning option. They'd probably look to deal McGehee before they'd non-tender him but it's not a no-brainer that he gets tendered if they significantly upgraded the left side at either SS or 3B.

[monty57]

Marcum, Morgan and Gomez are pretty much no-brainers.

 

If it's an either/or situation, I'd rather use the $4MM to re-sign Hawkins/Saito/other good pitcher than to pay Loe & Parra. I suppose there's the possibilty we non-tender Loe & Parra and try to sign them to lower value deals.

 

Kottaras will probably be back, but Roenicke always took him out as soon as Wolf came out of the game, so he must not think too much of him. It's possible we dump George and go with Maldonado, who I believe is supposed to be a good defender.

 

As you mentioned, Melvin will almost certainly make some phone calls to see if there's any interest in McGehee. I don't hate the idea of bringing him back as a backup 1B/3B, but I would rather not pay him $3.1MM to do it.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think it's time for the Brewers to move on from Kottaras as a 25-man player. I'd much rather see Martin Maldonado as Lucroy's backup at this point. Lucroy isn't an asset in throwing out runners, but Kottaras makes him look like Pudge. Time to upgrade the defense behind the dish imo. I wouldn't non-tender Kottaras, as he was obviously able to clear waivers last season... but I sure don't want to see him as the organization's #2 catcher anymore.

[Bnowell4evr]

$5.9 million is way too much for a RH platoon bat that can't hit LHP and a reliever you can't trust in critical situations. I'd bring back Saito and sign a RH platoon bat like Juan Rivera or Casey Blake for a fraction of the cost.

[gregmag]

They'd probably look to deal McGehee before they'd non-tender him but it's not a no-brainer that he gets tendered if they significantly upgraded the left side at either SS or 3B.

Do you mean "non-tendered" if one of those things happened?

 

I think McGehee is a pretty strong non-tender candidate right out of the gate. We all know the back-and-forth arguments about him. The most neutral way I can figure to project him is his career stats: .265/.320/.426. That's roughly dead average MLB production. He'll play at age 29 next year, and he doesn't have classic "young player" skills, so I don't see any reason to expect him to improve. Obviously he's been wildly up and down, so you can't rule out another 2009 or another 2010.

 

Is it worth betting almost $3 million (Casey's arby projection minus the MLB minimum) that Taylor Green (or Mat Gamel, if -- Jah forbid -- they're thinking of Casey at 1b) can't top a .746 OPS? I can't see how it is. To put it another way, even if you're pessimistic on those guys, is the difference between them and dead-average production worth the premium you'd have to pay Casey? That's not even taking into consideration any other options we might have for upgrading the infield corners.

 

If we can get something for Casey, then of course that's better than cutting ties for nothing. But I wouldn't be shocked to find that he has close to zero trade value.

[endaround]

McGehee isn't getting $3.1m. He won't go to arby either. He'll either sign a deal with the Brewers for about $1-1.5m or get non-tendered and hope for a Kotsay type deal from somewhere but there is a large risk in that. My guess is Loe will sign for about what he made this year, he might actually get 2 years/$4.5m.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd non-tender both McGehee and Loe if they get anywhere near that amount. I'd actually offer Parra a deal like Cappy got a few years back, if he doesn't take it, good bye. Not sure that Kottaras is worth more than a chance to win the backup job in spring either.

[Hate those Rodents]

Phillies fans on MLBTR seem to like Casey. I would love to get Dominic Brown in some sort of package with them (we'd have to give up more than McGehee).

[yoshii8]

Just because their fans like him, doesn't mean their front office likes him.

[Hate those Rodents]

Obviously. Thought it might be worth discussing in early November. Guess not.

[Dollarbill13]

Phillies fans on MLBTR seem to like Casey. I would love to get Dominic Brown in some sort of package with them (we'd have to give up more than McGehee).

Namely Braun or Gallardo

[nate82]

Phillies fans on MLBTR seem to like Casey. I would love to get Dominic Brown in some sort of package with them (we'd have to give up more than McGehee).

 

 

No way do the Brewers get Brown as Brown will be replacing Ibanez next year. Rizzotti would be more likely he would be a good backup plan if Gamel falters.

[JohnBriggs12]

Scott Podsednik retained a lot of his trade value after his numbers slipped significantly in 2004. They may not have slipped as much as McGehee, but he only had the one big year (2003) and Casey had 1 and 3/4. I use him as a comparable because like McGehee, he was a bit of a late bloomer that was had off of waivers by the Brewers.

 

Teams can look at a guy like McGehee and see a buy low candidate. I still think McGehee has some value. It's quite possible he could rebound and be productive.

[endaround]

Podsednik still stole 70 bases in 2004, so while his hitting slipped he was still doing something. And Podsednik was still an OK starter in 2004 while McGehee was not in 2011.

Not to say McGehee can't be traded, for example as a throw in to cover 3B for the Padres if the Brewers do go after Headley.

[monty57]

McGehee isn't getting $3.1m. He won't go to arby either. He'll either sign a deal with the Brewers for about $1-1.5m or get non-tendered and hope for a Kotsay type deal from somewhere but there is a large risk in that.

 

Good point. Melvin has the benefit of being able to speak with the player and his agent prior to any arby discussions, and both sides know how Casey played this season, even if his three year averages are still okay. His biggest leverage is arby and that the Brewers could get stuck with a non-team-friendly deal if the arby judge really values Casey's 2009-2010 numbers. He loses that if the Brewers non-tender him and he becomes a FA. Then it comes down to whether he thinks he'd get a better deal on the open market than what the Brewers are offering.

 

I think you're probably right that he either ends up on the Brewers for around $1-1.5MM or he ends up elsewhere. At around $1MM, he's a good option as backup 1B/3B, RH bat off the bench.