The Hot Stove: Guess where the free agents go

[GamelToe]

The hot stove is about to get warm. I figure we could have a little contest for bragging rights and guess where the top free agents will go.

 

Here's MLBTR's guesses:

 

1. Albert Pujols - Cardinals. The Cubs, Blue Jays,

Orioles, Mariners, Rangers, Marlins, Nationals, and Dodgers are other

potential suitors, but a significant premium would be required to lure

away the longtime Cardinal. $225-230MM over nine years seems a fair

compromise for the Cardinals and their superstar first baseman.

2. Prince Fielder - Mariners. Fielder has the same

potential suitors as Pujols, with the Brewers also a possibility. The

Scott Boras client is a tough free agent to place, as there are good reasons for every team

to avoid a potential $150MM+ commitment. The Mariners and Cubs are the

most likely matches for me. Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik drafted

Fielder in '02 with the Brewers, and his team lacks a premium bat.

3. Jose Reyes - Brewers. Reyes is another

difficult top free agent to predict. The Nationals, Braves, Phillies,

Giants, Pirates, Reds, Twins, Rays, and Cardinals could have a need at

shortstop, but not all of those teams can or should spend $100MM+ on

Reyes. The Mets will entertain re-signing Reyes, but the Brewers seem

more likely to approach Ryan Braun's speculated $120MM price range.

4. C.J. Wilson - Nationals. Wilson's poor

postseason may have damaged his stock slightly, but in his defense he

racked up 250 innings over 39 starts this season in total and started 37

games in 2010. $100MM is still possible for Wilson, though 78% of MLBTR readers think he'll fall short.

Front-of-the-rotation starting pitching is a big need for many teams,

including the Nationals, Marlins, Royals, Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox,

and Cubs.

5. Yu Darvish - Blue Jays. Darvish is not technically a free agent, and in fact he hasn't even decided about being posted at this point. If he does come over from Japan, a $100MM commitment will likely be required.

The Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners, and Royals could

put in bids, and it wouldn't be surprising to see a few "mystery teams"

enter the fray.

6. Edwin Jackson - Marlins. Jackson, a Scott Boras client, could also make sense for the Nationals and several other teams looking for a 200-inning starter with upside. Since Jackson is only 28, Boras could seek a four-year deal.

7. Jimmy Rollins - Phillies. Rollins probably won't find the five-year deal he seeks, but the Phillies have the need and the means to reach a new agreement with him.

8. Aramis Ramirez - Orioles. Ramirez seeks a multiyear deal, and as the best available free agent third baseman he's justified. He could give the Orioles a powerful corner bat on a three-year deal.

9. Carlos Beltran - Red Sox. Beltran is a tough

player to place, if the Giants are unable to re-sign him. He's a

34-year-old Scott Boras client who's likely to seek at least three years

despite significant injury concerns in 2009-10 and a disinterest in

being a designated hitter. It'll take a team with a right field opening

and a tolerance for risk.

10. Jonathan Papelbon - Red Sox. I can picture the

Red Sox going as high as three years and $39MM to retain Papelbon,

though the closer will test the market. A half-dozen teams could seek

closers this winter, but the list is short on big spenders and it's been

a while since we've had a $40MM+ reliever.

11. Michael Cuddyer - Twins. Cuddyer would fit with the Rockies, Red Sox, or Cubs, but he's spent his entire career with the Twins and may prefer to stay.

12. Mark Buehrle - White Sox. Buehrle is another player who is difficult to picture with another club. The lefty finds the National League enticing, however, and he could join Ozzie Guillen in Miami since the Cardinals don't have an opening.

13. David Ortiz - Blue Jays. Ortiz backed off from his comments about Red Sox drama, and there's a limited market

for an expensive player with no ability to play defense. Still, he'd

give Toronto's offense a nice boost without requiring more than a

two-year deal. That might leave Edwin Encarnacion having to play a

significant amount of first base, however.

14. Ryan Madson - Phillies. If the Phillies don't

re-sign Madson, and the Red Sox keep Papelbon, who would give Madson big

money to close? As a Scott Boras client, Madson could seek a four-year

deal with a salary approaching $10MM.

15. Hiroki Kuroda - Dodgers. Kuroda doesn't want to play anywhere else, according to Dodgers GM Ned Colletti.

16. Carlos Pena - Pirates. Pena is a nice fit for the Pirates on another one-year deal, assuming they don't re-sign Derrek Lee.

17. Francisco Rodriguez - Marlins. K-Rod, a Scott

Boras client, would like to return to the closing role on a three-year

deal. The Marlins would have the opening and the money, if they

non-tender Juan Carlos Oviedo.

18. Roy Oswalt - Rangers. Oswalt could return to Texas for a winning team, and he'll require a much shorter commitment than C.J. Wilson.

19. Javier Vazquez - Retirement. There's a strong sentiment that Vazquez will retire, but he'd be in demand if not after posting a 1.92 ERA and 6.05 K/BB ratio since mid-June.

20. Heath Bell - Padres. Bell hopes and expects to return to the Padres, perhaps on the first multiyear deal of his career.

21. Coco Crisp - Giants. Though he posted a low on-base percentage in 2011, Crisp could fill the Giants' need for a center fielder and leadoff man.

22. Hisashi Iwakuma - Twins. The Twins bid on Iwakuma last year when he was posted, and this year they can simply sign him as a free agent.

23. Kelly Johnson - Dodgers. Johnson could provide the Dodgers some offense from second base, though the Blue Jays and Tigers could also be in the mix.

24. Josh Willingham - Reds. As one of few affordable right-handed power sources on the market, Willingham could fit with the Reds, Rockies, Indians, and others.

25. Paul Maholm - Rockies. Though Maholm does not

appear to be on the Rockies' radar at the moment, he's coming off a

decent season and won't require a huge commitment.

26. Grady Sizemore - Marlins. Sizemore is a classic risk/reward case, and the Marlins don't seem interested in playing it safe this winter.

27. Bartolo Colon - Red Sox. Colon had an

excellent comeback season, but he will still have a hard time finding a

two-year deal. Perhaps he could take an incentive-based contract and

remain in the AL East with the Red Sox.

28. Erik Bedard - Blue Jays. If the Blue Jays hit

on a wild card like Bedard and also land Darvish, they'd have a fearsome

rotation. Bedard is a healthy free agent for the first time, and

perhaps he'll lean toward his native Canada.

29. David DeJesus - Cubs. DeJesus could be an asset for the Cubs at the outfield corners on a one-year deal.

30. Jason Kubel - Dodgers. Kubel could improve the Dodgers' offense as their left fielder, unless they go with Jerry Sands at the position.

31. Ramon Hernandez - Pirates. Hernandez would

give the Pirates offense out of the catcher spot, though GM Neal

Huntington may balk at giving up a second-round pick to sign him.

32. Jeff Francis - Pirates. Francis is one of many starting pitchers who could add depth to the Pirates' rotation at a reasonable cost.

33. Chris Capuano - Mariners. After subtracting Doug Fister this summer, Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik seems likely to add a piece to his rotation.

34. Tsuyoshi Wada - Orioles. Wada is expected to come to MLB as a free agent, though one question is his ability to handle a full rotation workload.

35. Clint Barmes - Twins. Barmes provided good value this season, and the Twins have a clear middle-infield need.

36. Casey Kotchman - Rays. Kotchman posted a fine

2011 season after signing a minor league deal, but his price should

remain reasonable as teams wonder whether he can do it again.

37. Freddy Garcia - Yankees. Even with Sabathia in

the fold, the Yankees will need additional rotation depth. Another

stint with Garcia makes sense if his price remains reasonable.

38. Aaron Hill - Diamondbacks. Hill's stellar 142 plate appearances for the Diamondbacks this year provided hope he can bounce back in 2012.

39. Johnny Damon - Orioles. Damon probably

requires a designated hitter opening, yet his level of offense doesn't

justify a full-time spot. He's a difficult free agent to place.

40. Aaron Harang - Angels. Would Harang accept a below-market deal to stay close to home?

41. Jamey Carroll - Tigers. The versatile Carroll fits at the top of the Tigers' order, playing mostly second base.

42. Rafael Furcal - Cardinals. The Cardinals and Furcal are known to have mutual interest in a new deal; he showed promise in his Cards stint this year.

43. Juan Pierre - Reds. Pierre will have to take a more reduced role next year, perhaps under Dusty Baker again.

44. Frank Francisco - Mariners. Francisco was homer-prone this year, but he's still an asset in the late innings.

45. Jason Marquis - Mets. Marquis may have to take a one-year deal with the Mets to realize his goal of playing in New York.

46. Joel Pineiro - Cubs. Pineiro had great success in '09 in the NL Central, and could be a bargain if he rights the ship.

47. Jonathan Broxton - Mets. Broxton

had arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone spur and loose bodies from his

elbow in September and expects to be ready for Spring Training. Though

he may not be the Broxton of old, I expect incentive-laden offers to be plentiful.

48. Joe Nathan - Twins. Nathan is excited about free agency, but after so many successful years closing for the Twins he may want to return to the role full-time in 2012.

49. Kerry Wood - Cubs. It's Cubs or retirement for Wood, and there's no reason not to bring him back.

50. Bruce Chen - Royals. As long as Chen's price tag doesn't get excessive, he's a good fit back with the Royals.

[prophet]

I'd be okay with that. Prince to the AL and Reyes to us? I can dig it. Now, if only Pujols would be so distraught by the loss of his biggest fan, that he hangs it up, it would be a great offseason.

[Bnowell4evr]

Joe Pawlikowski posted his own top 50 FA predictions and had us re-signing Prince along with adding Aramis Ramirez. I have no idea how we could afford it but it would be awesome if it happened.

http://riveraveblues.com/2011/11/predicting-mlb-trade-rumors-top-50-free-agents-58521/

[berniebrewer4life]

Joe Pawlikowski posted his own top 50 FA predictions and had us re-signing Prince along with adding Aramis Ramirez. I have no idea how we could afford it but it would be awesome if it happened.

http://riveraveblues.com/2011/11/predicting-mlb-trade-rumors-top-50-free-agents-58521/

Ramirez only if it was on the cheap. That guy is bound to have the same type of year casey had for us this year.

[bigredrobbo]

I can't stand Aramis Ramirez, but then I said that about Nyjer Morgan last off-season, and look what happened!

[JohnBriggs12]

He's not necessarily predicted they'll sign both Fielder and Ramirez, but that he ranks the Brewers as most likely independently of each other. Still there are ways the Brewers can trim salary. If they did sign Fielder or Ramirez or even Reyes, they'd be sure to deal or non tender McGehee. They could also deal a starter that they don't control beyond this year and they could go on the cheap for the bullpen, and non tender Loe to go along with the guys leaving via FA.

[pretendastronaut]

He's not necessarily predicted they'll sign both Fielder and Ramirez, but that he ranks the Brewers as most likely independently of each other.

 

I think you misread then, he talks about Fielder in his write up about Ramirez.

[jhart05]

I wouldn't want Ramirez either.

 

I want to see Taylor Green win the position in spring training.

[1992casey]

I figure we could have a little contest for bragging rights and guess where the top free agents will go.

 

I was thinking that this topic would be a better fit in the Transaction Rumors / Proposals forum until I saw the "contest" aspect. Does anyone want to play the game? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[monty57]

Attanasio seems to think they have a shot at signing Fielder, so it's not out of the question. If the Brewers re-signed Fielder, they wouldn't have as big of a need for Hart's bat in the lineup, and could put one of Gamel/Gindl/Schafer in RF to save around $20MM over two seasons. With Fielder and Braun each on the books for around $20MM/year, I don't think it would bode well for extending Greinke, so he could potentially be on the trading block as well.

 

Signing Fielder would certainly make for an eventful offseason. I couldn't see them signing Fielder to a long-term contract and then losing their entire starting rotation after the first year, so we would probably see some moves. Maybe trading Greinke and Hart could net us a good, young SS and some MLB-ready SP.

 

To the MLBtraderumors list in the original post, I would certainly like to see us land Reyes. If Attanasio feels we have the money to sign Fielder, then maybe Reyes could be the "fall back plan" if Fielder goes elsewhere :-) It'd be nice to see how good our pitching would be with some defense behind them.

[chadomac]

Doesn't anyone else think that from a PR standpoint, Mark A. HAS to say that they're going to try and sign Fielder? Him saying that means absolutely nothing to me.

[Warning Track Power]

Perhaps one of the best ways to look at the Jose Reyes/Prince Fielder question is if Reyes would take the Prince extension, 5 years $100MM, A. Would you give it to him? B. How would that impact the Brewers ability to re-sign Greinke past 2012?

 

I think re-signing Greinke should be the first priority for the Brewers this offseason given Fielder's eventual departure. Re-signing Greinke and signing Reyes would likely necessitate the trading of Hart and Wolf, but I think the Brewers as an organization would and should do this every time. Having Reyes and whatever a Wolf/Hart package would bring them (prospect RF? Maybe see if Philly wants to move Dom Brown as he has seemingly fallen out of favor) is certainly worth more than Wolf, Hart and say YuBet at SS.

 

If Greinke can be re-signed long term and the finances are there to give Reyes this type of deal, I think it would go a long way to opening the Brewers window into the mid 10s. Having Braun, Reyes, Weeks, Lucroy, Gomez/Morgan core is a solid offensive core, while allowing Gamel, Green and Gindl get their feet wet at the MLB level. Of course a vet at 3B like Hairston, as well as one in the OF to cover RF would be essential to ensure the Brewers are covered in the event Green and Gindl struggle, that lineup should be amazingly fast and productive. Additionally, having co-aces in Gallardo and Greinke, another year of Marcum and Narveson and Ax at the back end is a solid start to the rotation given the impending arrivals of Peralta in 2012 and Thornburg in 2013.

 

I was skeptical, but I am warming to the idea of Reyes.

[RockCoCougars]

Why would the Orioles sign Ramirez when they have Reynolds? Is this guy assuming that Reynolds would move to first?

 

Hopefully this guy is wrong... As I've said, if the Brewers are going to spend $100 million, it had better be on Prince.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Reyes, to me, is like Carl Crawford. He's a really exciting player, but maybe not as good as he is exciting. I certainly don't think he's a guy a smaller market team should be putting 100+ million into.

[nate82]

My guess on 10 of the free agents.

Pujols - Cardinals 8 years $228m

Fielder - Blue Jays 6 years $132m

Reyes - Brewers 5 years $90m

Wilson - Rangers 4 years $70m

Jackson - Nationals 3 years $45m

Rollins - Phillies 4 years $65m

Ramirez - Red Sox 3 years $39m

Beltran - Dodgers 3 years $33m

Papelbon - Red Sox 5 years $75m

Ortiz - Mariners 2 years $25m

[bacon06]

MLB Trade Rumors is having a contest on free agency predictions. Don't know anything about the contest, but still fun to fill out:

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012freeagentcontest

[radman12484]

My top 10 predictions:

 

1. Albert Pujols-Cardinals

2. Prince Fielder-Cubs

3. Jose Reyes-Mets

4. C.J. Wilson-Nationals

5. Edwin Jackson-Rangers

6. Jimmy Rollins-Phillies

7. Aramis Ramirez-Brewers

8. Carlos Beltran-Giants

9. Jonathan Papelbon-Red Sox

10. David Ortiz-Red Sox

[burnzy24]

My top 10 predictions:

 

 

3. Jose Reyes-Mets

The Mets have already publicly stated that they are going to let other teams set the market for Reyes, which is GM speak for "We are going to let other teams overpay for you."

 

My guess on the 10 free agents

 

1. Pujols- Rangers

2. Fielder- Mariners

3. Reyes- Giants

4. CJ Wilson- Yankees

5. Edwin Jackson- Nationals

6. Rollins- Phillies

7. Ramirez- Angels

8. Beltran- Giants

9. Palpelbon-Red Sox

10. Ortiz- Blue Jays

[RockCoCougars]

1. Pujols- Cardinals

2. Fielder - Angels

3. Reyes - Nationals

4. Wilson - Yankees

5. Jackson - Mets

6. Rollins - Phillies

7. Ramirez -Tigers

8. Beltran - Giants

9. Papelbon - Red Sox

10. Ortiz - Orioles

[TooLiveBrew]

burnzy24 wrote:

The Mets have already publicly stated that they are going to let other teams set the market for Reyes, which is GM speak for "We are going to let other teams overpay for you."

 

My guess on the 10 free agents

 

1. Pujols- Rangers

2. Fielder- Mariners

3. Reyes- Giants

4. CJ Wilson- Yankees

5. Edwin Jackson- Nationals

6. Rollins- Phillies

7. Ramirez- Angels

8. Beltran- Giants

9. Palpelbon-Red Sox

10. Ortiz- Blue Jays

And the Giants have said that they have no interest in simply being leverage against the Mets (since they believe Reyes will re-sign there). You can't read any more into it than just posturing at this stage.

[Hate those Rodents]

If I'm the Mets, I go with Tejada as SS anyway. He's gonna be a good one. And he's cheap. It'd be dumb to throw whatever money they have to spend at resigning Reyes.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

1. Pujols- Cardinals

2. Fielder - Mariners

3. Reyes - Giants

4. Wilson - Yankees

5. Jackson - Nationals

6. Rollins - Phillies

7. Ramirez -Dodgers

8. Beltran - Tigers

9. Papelbon - Red Sox

10. Ortiz - Red Sox

[Polish Falcons]

1. Albert Pujols - Cardinals.

2. Prince Fielder - Dodgers

3. Jose Reyes - Brewers.

4. C.J. Wilson - Rangers

5. Yu Darvish - Marlins

6. Edwin Jackson - Yankees

7. Jimmy Rollins - Phillies.

8. Aramis Ramirez - Tigers

9. Carlos Beltran - Giants

10. Jonathan Papelbon - Red Sox.

11. Michael Cuddyer - Twins

12. Mark Buehrle - Red Sox

13. David Ortiz - Red Sox

14. Ryan Madson - Phillies.

15. Hiroki Kuroda - Dodgers.

16. Carlos Pena - Pirates.

17. Francisco Rodriguez - Marlins.

18. Roy Oswalt - Nationals

19. Javier Vazquez - Marlins

20. Heath Bell - Padres.

[clancyphile]

1. Pujols - Red Sox

The Sox will use him as a DH so they can let Ortiz walk. They have the money to outbid St. Louis.

2. Fielder - Brewers

Attanasio has talked big about keeping Fielder. Unlike Sabathia, the Brewers will keep this premium free agent.

3. Reyes - Phillies

Rollins wants a five-year deal. The Phillies may decide to go with Reyes for a little less.

4. C.J. Wilson - Blue Jays

Toronto adds a front-line starter.

5. Darvish - Brewers

The Brewers will be seeking insurance should Greinke depart, and Darvish, at 25, would complement Gallardo well. Attanasio may well decide to take the risk.

6. Jackson - Yankees

Boras client will go where the big bucks are.

7. Rollins - Yankees

New York will need a replacement for Jeter, and paying through the nose for Rollins may be how they get it.

8. Ramirez - Cardinals

Losing Pujols to Boston will require a premiere bat to replace him.

9. Beltran - Cardinals

Beltran will be signed to help offset the loss of Pujols - moving Berkman to first.

10. Papelbon - Marlins

BoSox lose Papelbon due to having to break the bank to get Pujols.

11. Ortiz - Mariners

Solid bat goes to Seattle after they lose the Fielder sweepstakes

[Raw Biz]

5. Darvish - Brewers

The Brewers will be seeking insurance should Greinke depart, and Darvish, at 25, would complement Gallardo well. Attanasio may well decide to take the risk.

Everything I've read indicates that there will be a $100 million+ fee to get Darvish. Dice-K cost a $50 million posting fee plus his $50 million contract. No way should the Brewers invest that much money in someone who hasn't proven anything in MLB. Greinke would likely cost less so you might as well lock him up if you're going to spend that money.