Good Read by Ken Davidoff on his predictions for 30 of the top free agents

[monty57]

It's not just a difference of $2M or $3M, though. Guys like Barmes or Pena have been mentioned because they could be had on one-year deals, unlike Reyes. You're talking a difference of appx. $75M if you're comparing signing Reyes with signing Barmes & Pena.

 

True, if Reyes is indeed going to get a 6-year deal. Those deals aren't thrown around too freely, so I wouldn't count on him getting one, especially with his injury history. It could be more like Barmes/Pena at a combined 2 years / $30MM vs Reyes at 4 years / $72MM (if the author was correct in assuming $18MM/year). I don't really think either will happen, but I would think Reyes/Gamel would make us much better than Barmes/Pena.

 

In my opinion, a big benefit of getting someone like Reyes, Rollins or Furcal would be that we could put them in the leadoff spot, allowing Weeks, Hart and Braun to man the 3-4-5 spots. Not many SS are good enough hitters to bat leadoff, so getting someone like Barmes (who would be a big upgrade over Yuni) means we have another bottom-of-the-order guy, forcing Weeks or Hart back to leadoff. If it is possible to spend that kind of money, Reyes/Morgan/Braun/Hart/Weeks/Green/Lucroy/Gamel should be a pretty good, balanced offense.

 

A Reyes deal would probably mean no Greinke extension, so that is probably enough reason not to do it. Furcal is an intriguing option if he could be lured out of St Louis on a two-year deal.

[chickinbrickin]

I would be ok with Barmes, but I would be irate if they signed Pena for 10 mil. I am fine with Gamel getting a shot at $400K. Worst case senerio is he is just ok, but I don't think that will be the case. If Gamel has a horrible spring training they could always look to make a preseason trade for an 1B upgrade.

 

Barmes and Gomez up the middle both plus defenders helps this team more than people think.

[CheezWizHed]

Jose Reyes: Miami, six years, $108 million.

 

Everyone knows that the Heat lost to the Mavericks because they didn't have a good SS...

 

It's not just a difference of $2M or $3M, though. Guys like Barmes or Pena have been mentioned because they could be had on one-year deals, unlike Reyes. You're talking a difference of appx. $75M if you're comparing signing Reyes with signing Barmes & Pena.

 

While that is true, what happens when the 1 or 2 year deal is finished? There really isn't anyone in the minors at SS that is going to help us anytime soon. So you sign another person at a similar rate. So it might end up being a couple million per year instead.

[monty57]

There really isn't anyone in the minors at SS that is going to help us anytime soon.

 

Or at 1B if the team doesn't think Gamel's bat is adequate. Who do we have in the minors who will put up numbers better than Gamel on a regular basis?

 

If we do indeed decide to go after free agents like Pena rather than playing Gamel & Green next season, then I have to question the future of the franchise. We cannot field a decent team if we don't have league-minimum / arby players contributing significantly to the roster nearly every season. First off, we can't afford to have an all-veteran lineup unless they all stink, and secondly, who are we going to offer the "Braun-type" extensions to if we don't let good young players come up and contribute, and instead continue to trade them off. At some point, Weeks, Hart, Braun, Yo, etc will all be gone. Will we have new, young All-Stars to take there place?

 

We're not in some desparate state, but we will get there if we sign so-so veteran FAs to block our best MLB-ready prospects. Small-mid market teams need to trade so-so vets to unblock good prospects, not the other way around.

[TooLiveBrew]

Next season, imo, is the perfect season for the Brewers to see what Gamel & Green can do against big-league pitching on a regular basis. There's no reason to overreact & make more 'all-in', one-season type moves... but knowing Melvin that's what I expect to see happen. I just hope the Brewers will use 2012 to help formulate the long-term plan around the Braun/Gallardo/Weeks/Axford core.

 

The Cards, Reds, & Brewers are all at about the same true talent level overall, but the Brewers are going to have to find those cheap role players, like Lucroy, to sustain any long-term success. Unfortunately, just looking at the Lucroy example tells you that Melvin will go out & pay for overpriced vets, & only give the young player a shot when his hand is forced... unless said young talent is an all-world prospect like Braun or Weeks once were.

[paul253]

Or at 1B if the team doesn't think Gamel's bat is adequate. Who do we

have in the minors who will put up numbers better than Gamel on a

regular basis?

 

The difference between first and short though is that you can put pretty much anyone at first base and they'd be ok. Braun, for instance. If absolutely necessary he could be moved to first. So could Hart. McGehee. In the minors now you have Khris Davis that could end up at first. Shortstop you have to have a very specific tool set to play. We've seen guys like Gennett and Farris struggle when they were playing shortstop. I actually think Gamel will be fine though and I would save the money and use him. Derek Lee would actually be my second choice. Forget Pena. He's too expensive for a guy that's gonna hit .215. And Lee is a superior fielding first baseman.

If we do indeed decide to go after free agents like Pena rather than

playing Gamel & Green next season, then I have to question the

future of the franchise

 

I agree 100% with this. You struggled all year at third base and here you have a guy that had a spectacular year in AAA and will be cheap and controllable for awhile. Same with first base. Your guy is leaving and in the minors you had a player who hit over .300 and had something like 26 home runs. I realize there is a big difference between AAA and the majors but at some point you need to see what you've got. It would be extremely beneficial to the future of the organization if Gamel and Green turn into even average players. At the very least it would buy you some time to restock the system.

[monty57]

Agree with you there, TLB.

 

The reason I like the concept of Reyes (if it is financially possible) is that (A) we don't have any SS that will be MLB-ready in the foreseeable future (B) he plays good defense © he can bat leadoff and with Morgan will put a lor of runners on base in front of Weeks, Braun, Hart. "C" would also allow for Gamel and Green to bat along with Lucroy in the 6-7-8 spots. If they can indeed put up .800+ OPS numbers, we would have a very good offense. If they don't hit as well as I hope, the damage would be mitigated with them down in the order. They couldn't hit worse then the Yuni/McGehee combo, could they? Also, Reyes is a FA, so Melvin wouldn't have to trade away the future like he did in acquiring Marcum & Greinke. The draft pick lost would be made up for in the picks we should get for Prince and K-Rod. We wouldn't have enough money to sign three #1's and 3 Supplementals anyway.

 

The reason I don't like signing someone like Pena is that (A) it would take up much of the money we should use to sign a SS and bullpen (B) it would essentially mean we've given up on Gamel without ever giving him a real shot in the majors © it would be yet another sign that we're going to build our team through free agency rather than through the farm, and I don't think this is a long-term sustainable path for a small/mid market team.

 

I don't think we'll have the money to sign Reyes, but if we do, I think we could score as many runs next season as we did this year, and probably do it in a more consistant/less streaky way. I won't be upset if we end up with someone like Barmes, as it's kind of what I expect. I just hope we'd do a 1-2 year deal and hope one of our young SS on the farm become MLB ready in a couple years.

[narwhalattack]

The only way the picks the Brewers would get for Prince would make up for the pick lost from Reyes is if someone from the bottom half of the draft would sign Prince. If that doesn't happen then the Brewers would get the 2nd round pick. And I think it'll be much better to have a 1st round pick rather than sticking to a 2nd round pick. As for K-Rod, the Brewers would need to offer arby first, and then K-Rod would have to decline that arby. If the Brewers don't offer arby, then they don't get any picks.

 

And as for Reyes, I believe he's looking for a multi-year deal. I wouldn't necessarily mind if he has proven to be durable, but that's not the case. What's the point of shelling out a 6-year deal if he can't stay healthy? I really wouldn't mind signing Barmes to a 1 or 2 year deal because if something goes wrong, he won't stay long. I know that there aren't any immediate replacements in the minors, but it'll be just as bad stuck with an injured SS while having no replacements.

[BREWCREW5]

I would love to see Green at 3rd, Gamel at 1st, Reyes at SS.

 

World Champs in 2013. YEP!

[BREWCREW5]

And Pena and Barmes both are terrible. Think of watching the Cubs play the Brewers...when Pena came to the plate, you had zero fear of him doing anything productive.

 

These are the types of free agents we were signing in 2001.

[TooLiveBrew]

The reason I like the concept of Reyes (if it is financially possible)...

 

Not just directed at you, monty, but I'm curious to know from others that want to see Reyes signed -- do you think he's a more valuable long-term piece than Greinke? Because it (to me) seems pretty plain that if you sign Reyes, there's no extension available for Greinke. That, coupled with Reyes's durability & that he'll be on the wrong side of 30 for most of any contract he'd sign, is why I definitely don't want to see the Brewers sign him.

And Pena and Barmes both are terrible

They were actually both league-avg. for their positions in 2011, which I already blabbered about on page 1 of this thread.

[PrinceFielderx1]

If Jose Reyes had a healthy Major League history the Brewers would have no chance at all to re-sign him. None. The money that he would get would price the Brewers out of the race to sign him. This is not the case however, and he should be in the Brewers price range this off-season. The Brewers have a good opportunity to sign an above average SS, which is a serious position of need for them. The Brewers don't have a SS in the minors that would be ready to play everyday in the next 3-4 season (foreseeable future). They just let a SS of whom DM said they liked and thought was better than people said he was in Betancourt go. The Brewers are clearly going after a SS this off season, and Jose Reyes makes a lot of sense financially (the Brewers could likely afford him), and because of the statement it would make to the fan base after losing Prince Fielder to FA, and because he's the best SS available in the off-season.

 

To answer TLB question on if the Brewers can afford to sign both Greinke and Reyes my answer would be yes they can. Greinke could probably be extended for 2 million or so more than what he is making right now per season. He strikes me as a player that would take a discount to play where he is most comfortable and that money isn't the most important factor to him unlike CC Sabathia. Plus, Mark A said to begin last season that he will "let talent dictate payroll", and it's probably the same this season as well. Mark A will likely increase payroll with the additional TV revenue, Retail sales, Ticket sales, ticket price increases, playoff games, and player salary increases.

[Team Canada]

Next season, imo, is the perfect season for the Brewers to see what Gamel & Green can do against big-league pitching on a regular basis. There's no reason to overreact & make more 'all-in', one-season type moves... but knowing Melvin that's what I expect to see happen. I just hope the Brewers will use 2012 to help formulate the long-term plan around the Braun/Gallardo/Weeks/Axford core.

 

The Cards, Reds, & Brewers are all at about the same true talent level overall, but the Brewers are going to have to find those cheap role players, like Lucroy, to sustain any long-term success. Unfortunately, just looking at the Lucroy example tells you that Melvin will go out & pay for overpriced vets, & only give the young player a shot when his hand is forced... unless said young talent is an all-world prospect like Braun or Weeks once were.

This is exactly how I feel. In fact, short of a World Series appearance, what I most want out of next season is to know what we have in Gamel and Green; anything else is secondary. We can't keep stringing kids along in AAA when they have nothing left to prove, we have to keep bringing in cheap young (good) players. And if they're not going to play here, then we need to trade them and get return while return is there to get.

[monty57]

Or at 1B if the team doesn't think Gamel's bat is adequate. Who do we have in the minors who will put up numbers better than Gamel on a regular basis?

 

The difference between first and short though is that you can put pretty much anyone at first base and they'd be ok.

 

Basically what I was saying is that Gamel has pretty good minor league hitting stats. If the Brewers block him by signing a veteran 1B, then I don't know what a prospect has to do in the minors to earn a MLB starting job.

 

Not just directed at you, monty, but I'm curious to know from others that want to see Reyes signed -- do you think he's a more valuable long-term piece than Greinke? Because it (to me) seems pretty plain that if you sign Reyes, there's no extension available for Greinke. That, coupled with Reyes's durability & that he'll be on the wrong side of 30 for most of any contract he'd sign, is why I definitely don't want to see the Brewers sign him.

 

That's a very good point, and I was going to put a disclaimer on my post in regards to Greinke. 2014 and 2015 seem to be the bottleneck years, as that's when Braun, Weeks and Gallardo will be expensive. Take 2015: We will have Braun ($19MM), Weeks ($11.5MM), Gallardo ($13MM), totaling $43.5MM for three players. We could still have Axford and Lucroy in their 2nd years of arby and Narveson would be in his final year of arby. If we play Green & Gamel this season, Green would be in year 2 arby and Gamel would be in year 3 (I believe). Using a whole bunch of guesswork, and probably being way off on the arby guesses, I'd put those eight players around $48.5MM. If Greinke and Reyes were both around $18MM, that would put those ten players at $84.5MM. If we have a roughly $10MM boost from the TV deal, and get a little inflation, we're looking at around a $100MM payroll, which would leave around $15MM for the remaining fifteen players on the roster (RF, CF, two SP, bullpen and bench, most of which could be filled through our system)

 

So, without much real knowledge of the Brewers' financial situation, and using a lot of guesswork, it would be possible, but difficult to both sign Reyes and extend Greinke. If we are able to continue to bring players up from the farm, it would make it more doable. Plus, the above example assumes Greinke's extension would include 2015. It is possible that Melvin and Greinke work out a two-year extension, which would encompass 2012 and add 2013 and 2014. And, of course, it is possible someone could be traded.

 

Regardless, this is why I'm worried when I hear talk about signing a 1B or 3B instead of starting Gamel & Green next year. If we do not put a little trust in our minor leaguers and allow them to take on starting roles, we are going to be in a lot of trouble in 2014 and 2015. This is also why, while I'd like to see Reyes as a Brewer, I hope Melvin does a lot of due diligence before even considering a 6-year deal. We don't want to get ourselves into a situation where we always have multiple big contracts which keep us from "filling in holes." Really the big reason I'd consider it for Reyes is that we don't have any SS on the horizon, and we should have cheap options at most of the other positions coming through the ranks.

[Oldcity]

I just think it's funny that he has C.J. Wilson ranked higher than Fielder or Reyes.

[TooLiveBrew]

Why? Honestly curious.

[Oldcity]

Because he sucked in the playoffs.

 

Na, because he's a number two starter who will be 31. Prince is a much safer bet to A. stay healthy and B. perform the way he has over the next four-five years.

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Ok. Honestly I didn't realize he's entering his age-31 season.